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At least 73 records · Page 4

Evaluation of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter system over the Great Lakes

The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter measurment system is evaluated for the first 46 repeat cycles (September 23, 1992-December 23, 1992) using tracks over the Great Lakes. The temporal variations in lake level are removed from the altimeter measurements using in-situ lake level measurements, thus permitting the performance of the altimeter system to be assessed. For the NASA altimeter, the root-mean-square (RMS) scatter of the residuals is 3.95 cm using all the tracks over the lakes. However, some of the scatter in this result is probably due to lake tides or seiche, which can amount to a few centimeters amplitude near the ends of the lakes. When the seven best tracks are used, which cross the center of the lakes where tides/seiche effects are minimal, the RMS error is included to either 2.9 or 3.0 cm, depending on whether the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) or NASA orbit is used. This places an upper limit on the error budget of the altimeter system, excluding ocean tides and inverse barometer effect. There are several short-period variations in the residuals. The most pronounced is a 55-day period, with a 1-cm amplitude, which we believe is (at least in part) due to orbit error. When the model-derived wet tropospheric correction is substituted for the TOPEX microwave radiometer correction, the RMS error increases significantly, possibly resulting in an annual cycle of a few centimeters. Evaluation of the ionospheric correction indicates that the dual-frequency correction provides an average improvement of 0.85 cm over the Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) correction. Although there are insufficient data to directly assess the CNES altimeter, the relative bias between the altimeters is estimated to be either -14.3 or -15.6 cm (NASA altimeter measuring short), depending on whether the DORIS or dual-frequency ionospheric correction is applied to the NASA altimeter.

Morris, Charles S.↗

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

ERTS computer compatible tape data processing and analysis. Appendix 1: The utility of imaging radars for the study of lake ice

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. Remotely sensed multispectral scanner and return beam vidicon imagery from ERTS-1 is being used for: (1) water depth measurements in the Virgin Islands and Upper Lake Michigan areas; (2) mapping of the Yellowstone National Park; (3) assessment of atmospheric effects in Colorado; (4) lake ice surveillance in Canada and Great Lakes areas; (5) recreational land use in Southeast Michigan; (6) International Field Year on the Great Lakes investigations of Lake Ontario; (7) image enhancement of multispectral scanner data using existing techniques; (8) water quality monitoring of the New York Bight, Tampa Bay, Lake Michigan, Santa Barbara Channel, and Lake Erie; (9) oil pollution detection in the Chesapeake Bay, Gulf of Mexico southwest of New Orleans, and Santa Barbara Channel; and (10) mapping iron compounds in the Wind River Mountains.

Polcyn, F. C.↗

Investigating the Impact of UV Radiation on High-Altitude Shallow Lake Habitats, Life Diversity, and Life Survival Strategies: Clues for Mars' Past Habitability Potential?

We present data and results from an ongoing project of astrobiological high-altitude expeditions investigating the highest and least explored perennial lakes on Earth in the Bolivian and Chilean Andes, including several volcanic crater lakes nearing and beyond 6,000 m in elevation. In the next five years, they will provide the first integrated long-term astrobiological characterization and monitoring of lacustrine environments and their biology for such altitude. These extreme lakes are natural laboratories. They provide the field data missing beyond 4,000 m to complete our understanding of terrestrial lakes and biota. Research on the effects of UV has been performed in lower altitude lakes and models of UV flux over time are being developed. Lakes showing a high content of dissolved organic material (DOM) shield organisms from UV. DOM acts as a natural sunscreen as it influences the water transparency, therefore is a determinant of photic zone depth. In sparsely vegetated alpine areas, lakes are clearer and offer less protection from UV to organisms living in the water. Transparent water and high UV irradiance may maximize the penetration and effect of UV radiation. Shallow-water communities in these lakes are particularly sensitive to UV radiation. The periphyton can live on various susbtrates. While on rocks, it includes immobile species that cannot seek low UV refuges unlike sediment-dwelling periphyton or alpine phytoflagellates which undergo vertical migration. Inhibition of algal photosynthesis by UV radiation has been documented in laboratory and showed that phytoplankton production is reduced by formation of nucleic acid lesions or production of peroxides and free oxygen radicals. of peroxides and free oxygen radicals. Our project is providing the field data that is missing from natural laboratories beyond 4,000 m and will complement the vision of the effects of UV on life and its adaptation modes (or lack thereof).

Cabrol, A.↗

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Image processing developments and applications for water quality monitoring and trophic state determination

Remote sensing data analysis of water quality monitoring is evaluated. Data anaysis and image processing techniques are applied to LANDSAT remote sensing data to produce an effective operational tool for lake water quality surveying and monitoring. Digital image processing and analysis techniques were designed, developed, tested, and applied to LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) data and conventional surface acquired data. Utilization of these techniques facilitates the surveying and monitoring of large numbers of lakes in an operational manner. Supervised multispectral classification, when used in conjunction with surface acquired water quality indicators, is used to characterize water body trophic status. Unsupervised multispectral classification, when interpreted by lake scientists familiar with a specific water body, yields classifications of equal validity with supervised methods and in a more cost effective manner. Image data base technology is used to great advantage in characterizing other contributing effects to water quality. These effects include drainage basin configuration, terrain slope, soil, precipitation and land cover characteristics.

Blackwell, R. J.↗

Planning applications in east central Florida

The author has identified the following significant results. Lake Apopka and three lakes downstream of it (Dora, Eustis, and Griffin) are in an advanced state of eutrophication with high algal concentrations. This feature has shown up consistently on ERTS-1 images in the form of a characteristic water color for those lakes. As expected, EREP photographs also show a characteristic color for those lakes. What was not expected is that Lake Griffin shows a clear pattern of this coloration. Personnel familiar with the lake believe that the photograph does, indeed, show an algal bloom. It is reported that the algal concentration is often significantly higher in the southern portion of the lake. What the photograph shows that was not otherwise known is the pattern of the algal bloom. A similar, but less pronounced, effect is seen in Lake Tohopekaliga. Personnel stationed at Kissimmee reported that there was an algal bloom on that lake at the time of the EREP pass and that its extent corresponded approximately to that shown on the photograph. Again, the EREP photograph gives information about the extent of the bloom that could not be obtained practically by sampling. ERTS-1 images give some indication of this algal distribution on Lake Griffin in some cases, but are inconclusive.

Hannah, J. W.↗

Rotation of stress and blocks in the Lake Mead, Nevada, Fault System

The combined effects of stress field rotation and material rotation were found in the Lake Mead, Nevada Fault System (LMFS). Fault inversion results imply an apparent 60 deg clockwise (CW) rotation of the stress field since mid-Miocene time. In contrast, structural data from the Great Basin suggest only a 30 deg CW stress field rotation. By incorporating paleomagnetic declination anomalies, it is inferred that slip on faults caused a local 30 deg counterclockwise rotation of blocks and faults in the Lake Mead area, so that the inferred 60 deg CW rotation of the stress field in the LMFS is actually only 30 deg.

Ron, Hagai↗

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗

Use of induced fluorescence measurements to assess aluminum-organic interactions in acidified lakes

The application of laser fluorosensing to the tracing of metals in acid lakes is proposed. The effects of the metals on the dissolving organic carbon (DOC) fluorescence is studied using laboratory mixed water samples and natural water samples from Hamilton and Big Moose Lakes in New York. The operation of the laser fluorosensing system employed in the experiment is described. The DOC fluorescence was quenched by Al, Cu, and Fe, and the relation between pH and the quenching rate is examined. The humic substances fluorescence spectra are analyzed to estimate the concentrations of DOC in water and the relative concentration of Al. The interference problems caused by chemical competition between metal ions and ligands, and changes in the background DOC fluorescence are discussed. It is noted that an airborne laser fluorescence is useful for detecting elevated concentrations of metals.

Vodacek, A.↗

The Role of Declining Snow Cover in the Desiccation of the Great Salt Lake, Utah, using MODIS Data

The Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah has been shrinking since the middle of the 19th Century, leading to decreased area and volume, and increased salinity. We use satellite data products from the Terra and Aqua MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Landsat-7 and -8 satellites, along with meteorological and streamflow data, and modeled data products to study the relationship between changing snow-cover conditions and the decline of the GSL since 2000 in the context of the historical record of lake levels. The GSL basin includes much of the snow-dominated Wasatch and Uinta mountain ranges to the east of the lake. Snowmelt feeds the Bear, Jordan, and Weber rivers which are the three main rivers that flow into the lake. Snowmelt-timing maps, derived from a new MODIS standard snow-cover product, MOD10A1F, show that snow melted ~9.5 days earlier in the GSL basin during the study period, extending from 2000 – 2018. Air temperatures derived from 26 meteorological stations and surface temperatures measured by the Aqua MODIS land-surface temperature (LST) products, MYD21A1D and MYD21A1N, show trends of increasing temperature of ~0.94°C (a=0.05), and ~2.18°C, respectively, with most of the LST trends in the GSL basin being statistically significant (a=0.05). Increasing air temperatures in the basin have led to less precipitation falling as snow, lower snow depth (by ~34.5 mm (=0.01)) and snow-water equivalent (0.02 mm (a=0.01)), and earlier snowmelt. Also during the study period, Global Land surface Evaporation Amsterdam Model data show evaporation increasing by ~3.2 mm/yr, with trends in much of the basin being statistically significant (a=0.05). Trends calculated from the various products are generally in agreement indicating higher temperatures, greater evaporation, less snowfall and snow-on-the ground, and earlier snowmelt. Earlier snowmelt contributes to increasing evaporative loss from water flowing toward the lake. Furthermore, a lower mountain snowpack and less precipitation falling as snow (versus rain) is associated with lower stream discharge even if overall precipitation stays the same. The surface-water temperature of the GSL also increased over the study period by ~ 0.69°C, according to the MODIS LST data products, and the surface-water elevation of the lake dropped by ~1.7 m between 2000 and 2018 based on United States Geological Survey measurements, and the areal extent of the lake decreased by ~901 km2 as measured using Landsat imagery. Desiccation of the lake is associated with deleterious effects on wildlife, recreational activities, and some local industries. And, importantly, an expanding lake bed can also fuel dust storms that promote dangerous air quality along the Wasatch Front. This work elucidates the key role that satellite remote sensing can play in documenting earlier snowmelt and other changes in the GSL basin that influence the ongoing decline of the Great Salt Lake.

Dorothy K Hall↗

Statewide lake classification utilizing LANDSAT imagery for the state of Wisconsin

A cooperative program between the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the University of Wisconsin-Madison resulted in the assessment of the trophic condition of approximately 3,000 significant inland lakes in Wisconsin. The feasibility of using both photographic and digital representations of LANDSAT multispectral scanner data for lake classification was investigated. The result was the development of a nearly automated system which, with minimal human interaction, locates and extracts the lake data, then corrects the data for atmospheric effects, and finally classifies all the significant lakes in the state as to trophic condition.

Martin, R. H.↗

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

Abstract Lakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH 4 ) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH 4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH 4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH 4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH 4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH 4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH 4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH 4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH 4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH 4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH 4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH 4 emissions and climate‐CH 4 feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Citizen science coupled with machine learning to quantify green-blue infrastructure cooling potential in Maricopa County, Arizona

Here, this study investigates the spatiotemporal cooling performance of green and blue infrastructure (GBI) in the Dobson Ranch urban neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona. We leveraged citizen science near-surface (2 m) air temperature (Tair) measurements to train a highly accurate Tair predicting LightGBM machine learning model (R 2 : 0.986, MAE: 0.251 °C, RMSE: 0.585 °C). On June 16, 2024, the park area exhibited approximately 1 °C cooling effect (relative to the neighborhood mean) during both day and night. In contrast, the nearby artificial lake exhibited a stronger cooling effect of 2.4 °C during the day but a slight warming of 0.3 °C at night. At 00:00, locations 50 m downwind of the park were 0.3 °C warmer than the park, while locations 50 m upwind were 0.8 °C warmer. At 11:00, we observed that the downwind area is 0.8 °C cooler and the upwind area is 0.6 °C warmer—at the same 50 m distances relative to the park. We also observed 1 °C cooler and warmer effects respectively at the same 50 m downwind and upwind locations at 19:00 on June 17, 2024. Our data-driven analysis highlights potential limitations of car-traverse measurements, showing that failure to account for temporal variations during the traverse can lead to overestimation of Tair at night and underestimation during the day. Our analysis also showed only a weak correlation (coefficient: 0.48) between Landsat-derived land surface temperature (LST) and model predicted Tair at the time of the local Landsat overpass (∼11.00). This highlights the potential error of relying solely on LST for human thermal exposure analysis—particularly within the heterogenous built-environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Deep Learning and Hydrodynamic Modeling to Improve the Great Lakes Forecast

The Laurentian Great Lakes, one of the world’s largest surface freshwater systems, pose a modeling challenge in seasonal forecast and climate projection. While physics-based hydrodynamic modeling is a fundamental approach, improving the forecast accuracy remains critical. In recent years, machine learning (ML) has quickly emerged in geoscience applications, but its application to the Great Lakes hydrodynamic prediction is still in its early stages. This work is the first one to explore a deep learning approach to predicting spatiotemporal distributions of the lake surface temperature (LST) in the Great Lakes. Our study shows that the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, trained with the limited data from hypothetical monitoring networks, can provide consistent and robust performance. The LSTM prediction captured the LST spatiotemporal variabilities across the five Great Lakes well, suggesting an effective and efficient way for monitoring network design in assisting the ML-based forecast. Furthermore, we employed an explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) technique named SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to uncover how the features impact the LSTM prediction. Our XAI analysis shows air temperature is the most influential feature for predicting LST in the trained LSTM. The relatively large bias in the LSTM prediction during the spring and fall was associated with substantial heterogeneity of air temperature during the two seasons. In contrast, the physics-based hydrodynamic model performed better in spring and fall yet exhibited relatively large biases during the summer stratification period. Finally, we developed a statistical integration of the hydrodynamic modeling and deep learning results based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). The integration further enhanced prediction accuracy, suggesting its potential for next-generation Great Lakes forecast systems.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

Polar mapping with ERTS-1

The applicability of multispectral ERTS-1 imagery to polar ice detection, local current effects, map corrections, relative lake depth measurements, and estimates of ice breakup is discussed.

Greaves, J. R.↗

Study of recreational land and open space using Skylab imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. Despite almost uniform surface temperature conditions in the study area, the thermal imagery did illustrate the following possible uses: (1) Surface temperatures relative to 0 C reveal whether the snow and ice cover is wet and the melt pattern. This information is useful in hydrologic monitoring of runoff timing and rate, as well as indicating trafficability conditions on the snow. (2) When the surface temperature of snow and ice is below freezing, it may serve as an indicator of spatial variation of air temperatures. This information may be used in calculating the spatial variation of surface radiation budgets, or in observing synoptic weather condition changes or local microclimatic effects. (3) Frozen inland lakes with less than about three or four inches of snow over the ice may be differentiated from surrounding snow covered land areas; this is not always feasible in visible wavelength imagery. The feasibility of this application decreases as the ice thickness increases.

Sattinger, I. J.↗

A TRMM-Calibrated Infrared Rainfall Algorithm Applied Over Brazil

The development of a satellite infrared technique for estimating convective and stratiform rainfall and its application in studying the diurnal variability of rainfall in Amazonia are presented. The Convective-Stratiform. Technique, calibrated by coincident, physically retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), is applied during January to April 1999 over northern South America. The diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as the division between convective and stratiform rainfall is presented. Results compare well (a one-hour lag) with the diurnal cycle derived from Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) radar-estimated rainfall in Rondonia. The satellite estimates reveal that the convective rain constitutes, in the mean, 24% of the rain area while accounting for 67% of the rain volume. The effects of geography (rivers, lakes, coasts) and topography on the diurnal cycle of convection are examined. In particular, the Amazon River, downstream of Manaus, is shown to both enhance early morning rainfall and inhibit afternoon convection. Monthly estimates from this technique, dubbed CST/TMI, are verified over a dense rain gage network in the state of Ceara, in northeast Brazil. The CST/TMI showed a high bias equal to +33% of the gage mean, indicating that possibly the TMI estimates alone are also high. The root mean square difference (after removal of the bias) equaled 36.6% of the gage mean. The correlation coefficient was 0.77 based on 72 station-months.

Negri, A. J.↗