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At least 73 records · Page 4

Past agricultural land use affects multiple facets of ungulate antipredator behavior

Antipredator behavior affects prey fitness, prey demography, and the strength of ecological interactions. Although predator-prey interactions increasingly occur in habitats that experience multiple forms of human-generated disturbance, it is unclear how different forms of disturbance might affect antipredator behavior. Fire is a contemporary disturbance that has dramatic effects on terrestrial habitats. Such habitats may have also experienced past disturbances, like agricultural land use, that leave lasting legacies on habitat structure (e.g., overstory and understory composition). It is unclear how these past and present disturbances affect the use of different antipredator behaviors, like temporal avoidance and vigilance. We examined whether variation in disturbance regimes generates differences in ungulate antipredator behavior by using cameras to measure white-tailed deer vigilance and activity time across 24 longleaf pine woodlands that vary in past land use and contemporary fire regime. Regardless of land-use history, woodlands with high fire frequencies had 4 times less vegetation cover than low-fire woodlands, generating riskier habitats for deer; however, deer responded to fire with different antipredator strategies depending on land-use history. In nonagricultural woodlands, fire affected deer activity time such that activity was nocturnal in low-fire woodlands and crepuscular in high-fire woodlands. In post-agricultural woodlands, fire affected vigilance and not activity time such that deer were more vigilant in high-fire woodlands than in low-fire woodlands. Furthermore, these results suggest that ungulate antipredator behavior may vary spatially depending on past land use and contemporary fire regime, and such disturbances may generate “landscapes of fear” that persist for decades after agricultural use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing Marginal Land Availability Based on Land Use Change Information in the Contiguous United States

Utilization of marginal land for growing dedicated bioenergy crops for second-generation biofuels is appealing to avoid conflicts with food production. This study develops a novel framework to quantify marginal land for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) based on a history of satellite-observed land use change (LUC) over the 2008–2015 period. Frequent LUC between crop and noncrop is assumed to be an indicator of economically marginal land; this land is also likely to have a lower opportunity cost of conversion from food crop to bioenergy crop production. We first present an approach to identify cropland in transition using the time series of Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product and determine the amount of land that can be considered marginal with a high degree of confidence vs with uncertainty across the CONUS. We find that the biophysical characteristics of this land and its productivity and environmental vulnerability vary across the land and lie in between that of permanent cropland and permanent natural vegetation/bare areas; this land also has relatively low intrinsic value and agricultural profit but a high financial burden and economic risk. We find that the total area of marginal land with confidence vs with uncertainty is 10.2 and 58.4 million hectares, respectively, and mainly located along the 100th meridian. Only a portion of this marginal land (1.4–2.2 million hectares with confidence and 14.8–19.4 million hectares with uncertainty) is in the rainfed region and not in crop production and, thus, suitable for producing energy crops without diverting land from food crops in 2016. These estimates are much smaller than the estimates obtained by previous studies, which consider all biophysically low-quality land to be marginal without considering economical marginality. The estimate of marginal land for bioenergy crops obtained in this study is an indicator of the availability of economically marginal land that is suitable for bioenergy crop production; whether this land is actually converted to bioenergy crops will depend on the market conditions. Here, we note the inability to conduct field-level validation of cropland in transition and leave it to future advances in technology to ground-truth land use change and its relationship to economically marginal land.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decreased land use intensity improves surface soil quality on marginal lands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) has been a major factor in land transitions out of intensive row-crop management on marginally productive lands in the central United States. While CRP can protect these more environmentally sensitive lands against erosion and potential nutrient loss, information on how CRP affects soil quality over time is limited. Using a chronosequence with 0–40 yr of CRP conversion history, we evaluated soil quality under different land use intensities (CRP, pasture, row crop) using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Effects of slope classes (higher [14–25%] and lower [2–14%]) and soil depth (0–120 cm) were also evaluated. Our results show that the soils were functioning at 84 and 78% of their theoretical capacity under CRP and row crop, respectively. Conversion to CRP enhanced overall soil quality by increasing soil biological, physical, and chemical attributes, but soil nutrient availability decreased due to the absence of fertilizer application. Increasing soil organic C (SOC) enhanced overall soil quality because of its impact on soil biological, physical, chemical, and nutrient conditions. Conversion to CRP will likely have greater benefits for more environmentally sensitive soils (i.e., higher slope) as demonstrated by structural equation modeling. Land use effects were also depth dependent, with more prominent effects within the 0-to-5-cm than the 5-to-15-cm depth increment. Overall, our methods focused on key soil quality indicators, confirmed ecological benefits of CRP conversion, and provided guidance for improved and simplified land management recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prairie Strips and Lower Land Use Intensity Increase Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Agricultural landscapes can be managed to protect biodiversity and maintain ecosystem services. One approach to achieve this is to restore native perennial vegetation within croplands. Where rowcrops have displaced prairie, as in the US Midwest, restoration of native perennial vegetation can align with crops in so called “prairie strips.” We tested the effect of prairie strips in addition to other management practices on a variety of taxa and on a suite of ecosystem services. To do so, we worked within a 33-year-old experiment that included treatments that varied methods of agricultural management across a gradient of land use intensity. In the two lowest intensity crop management treatments, we introduced prairie strips that occupied 5% of crop area. We addressed three questions: (1) What are the effects of newly established prairie strips on the spillover of biodiversity and ecosystem services into cropland? (2) How does time since prairie strip establishment affect biodiversity and ecosystem services? (3) What are the tradeoffs and synergies among biodiversity conservation, non-provisioning ecosystem services, and provisioning ecosystem services (crop yield) across a land use intensity gradient (which includes prairie strips)? Within prairie strip treatments, where sampling effort occurred within and at increasing distance from strips, dung beetle abundance, spider abundance and richness, active carbon, decomposition, and pollination decreased with distance from prairie strips, and this effect increased between the first and second year. Across the entire land use intensity gradient, treatments with prairie strips and reduced chemical inputs had higher butterfly abundance, spider abundance, and pollination services. In addition, soil organic carbon, butterfly richness, and spider richness increased with a decrease in land use intensity. Crop yield in one treatment with prairie strips was equal to that of the highest intensity management, even while including the area taken out of production. We found no effects of strips on ant biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions (N 2 O and CH 4 ). Our results show that, even in early establishment, prairie strips and lower land use intensity can contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services without a disproportionate loss of crop yield.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

kemmerl4/LTER_prairie_strip_2019-2020: Data for: Prairie strips and lower land use intensity increase biodiversity and ecosystem services

Agricultural landscapes can be managed to protect biodiversity and maintain ecosystem services. One approach to achieve this is to restore native perennial vegetation within croplands. Where rowcrops have displaced prairie, as in the US Midwest, restoration of native perennial vegetation can align with crops in so called “prairie strips.” We tested the effect of prairie strips in addition to other management practices on a variety of taxa and on a suite of ecosystem services. To do so, we worked within a 33-year-old experiment that included treatments that varied methods of agricultural management across a gradient of land use intensity. In the two lowest intensity crop management treatments, we introduced prairie strips that occupied 5% of crop area. We addressed three questions: (1) What are the effects of newly established prairie strips on the spillover of biodiversity and ecosystem services into cropland? (2) How does time since prairie strip establishment affect biodiversity and ecosystem services? (3) What are the tradeoffs and synergies among biodiversity conservation, non-provisioning ecosystem services, and provisioning ecosystem services (crop yield) across a land use intensity gradient (which includes prairie strips)? Within prairie strip treatments, where sampling effort occurred within and at increasing distance from strips, dung beetle abundance, spider abundance and richness, active carbon, decomposition, and pollination decreased with distance from prairie strips, and this effect increased between the first and second year. Across the entire land use intensity gradient, treatments with prairie strips and reduced chemical inputs had higher butterfly abundance, spider abundance, and pollination services. In addition, soil organic carbon, butterfly richness, and spider richness increased with a decrease in land use intensity. Crop yield in one treatment with prairie strips was equal to that of the highest intensity management, even while including the area taken out of production. We found no effects of strips on ant biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions (N 2 O and CH 4 ). Our results show that, even in early establishment, prairie strips and lower land use intensity can contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services without a disproportionate loss of crop yield.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗

County Land-Use Regulations for Solar Energy Development in Colorado

We present a survey of county-level policies on ground-mounted solar development across Colorado, including both solar-specific ordinances as well as general land-use code that might be applicable in counties without solar-specific policies. This report provides an accessible reference for stakeholders interested in identifying counties with particular regulations or in analyzing the diversity of regulations across Colorado. We defined a set of search criteria to find information on solar definitions and classifications, permitting processes, and use-specific requirements in each of Colorado's 64 counties. With those criteria, we reviewed relevant ordinances, land-use code, and comprehensive and master plans. If any uncertainties were identified, we contacted county officials for clarification. The findings are categorized and mapped to illustrate the distribution of key policies adopted across Colorado's counties on the following topics: solar definitions, solar siting policy documentation, categorization of PV systems for permitting, 1041 permitting, solar on agricultural land, panel height restrictions, fencing requirements, vegetation management, visual impacts, decommissioning plans, and financial assurance for decommissioning. Additionally, we identify and discuss policies that might impact the deployment of agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining both agriculture and solar on the same land, which might not fit neatly in existing zoning definitions and solar-specific regulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin-scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Combined effects of stream hydrology and land use on basin‐scale hyporheic zone denitrification in the Columbia River Basin”, published in Water Resource Research (Son et al.2022) available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031131. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) denitrification at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions, including two-step denitrification and aerobic respiration, are considered within the HZ. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values. This study uses the RCM to explore the spatial patterns of HZ denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land use in the CRB. Our main objective is to use the RCM as a virtual reality model, and the machine-learning models as surrogates that encapsulate the complexities of the physics-based model while identifying the importance of different variables that are not evident in the model conceptualization. We do not include a direct comparison of the modeled HZ denitrification and measurements; however, the RCM can capture the overall spatial patterns of the HZ denitrification because the model inputs and its reaction networks are based on well-established theory and a physical-based model. The combination of the model-based predictions and a machine-learning approach (e.g., random forest) is used to improve our understanding of what variables of the model are associated with spatial patterns of the modeled denitrification across reaches with different sizes and land uses, and to develop a proxy model using measurable variables to reproduce the simulated patterns.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

White-tailed deer responses to acoustic predator cues are contingent upon past land use and contemporary fire regime

Prey can assess the immediate risk of predation by detecting cues of predator presence, and it is expected that prey should invest in costly antipredator behaviors when a cue of predator presence is detected. Features of the habitat in which the cue is detected, such as vegetative concealment, serve as indirect cues of risk and can mediate how prey respond to direct cues of predator presence. Past agricultural land use and contemporary fire regimes are common disturbances that may modify prey perceptions of risk and could, therefore, alter prey responses to direct cues of predator presence. Here we examined whether the overlap of these two disturbances affected white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) responses to cues of predator presence by measuring deer vigilance and foraging bout duration in response to coyote (Canis latrans) vocalizations across 20 woodlands that varied in past land use and contemporary fire regime. Frequent fire regimes consistently increased deer visibility to predators across both land-use history contexts. Deer exhibited no behavioral response to the predator cue in habitats containing infrequent fire regimes or agricultural legacies. Deer responded to the cue in frequently burned woodlands without agricultural legacies through increased vigilance and time spent at a foraging location. These findings reveal that land-use legacies and contemporary fire regimes can mediate how prey respond to direct cues of risk. They also suggest that prey may balance the uncertainty associated with cues of predation risk with the urgency of responding to a potential attack by being vigilant and remaining in place.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗

Land-use history, fire regime, and large-mammal herbivory affect deer-preferred plant diversity in longleaf pine woodlands

Since ecological systems often experience multiple disturbances, understanding changes in important ecological interactions, such as plant-herbivore interactions, may require studies capable of disentangling the unique and interactive effects of multiple forms of disturbance. For example, understanding how mammalian herbivores affect plant communities may require understanding how widespread past disturbances, such as agricultural land use, interact with contemporary disturbances, such as prescribed fire. Here, we tested if past agricultural land use and contemporary fire regime modified the effects of mammalian herbivory on focal plant communities by measuring the richness of plant species preferred by deer at 26 longleaf pine woodlands containing paired open and large-mammal exclusion plots. Land-use history significantly affected the community composition of deer-preferred species, and focal species were 8.19 times more likely to be present in post-agricultural sites than non-agricultural sites. Large-mammal herbivory only affected plant species richness in woodlands with low fire frequencies wherein focal species were on average 2.23 times more likely to be present in exclusion plots than open plots. These results suggest that past and present disturbances can mediate contemporary plant-animal interactions and may explain spatial patterns in the intensity of large-mammal herbivory. Our findings also suggest that common management practices, such as use of prescribed burns, may indirectly promote plant species richness by reducing deer herbivory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Rise of US Photovoltaics: An Exploration of Land Use Density Trends in Large‐Scale Solar Facility Attributes, 2012–2021

An energy transition is underway in the United States; renewable energy generation is now on par with coal and nuclear generation. The number of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities increased approximately tenfold between 2012 and 2021, with an associated 25-fold increase in cumulative installed capacity. With ambitious decarbonization and renewable energy deployment goals at both the federal and state levels, deployments of large-scale solar photovoltaic facilities will continue apace. This growth is likely to be complex with ripples of impacts felt throughout different aspects of society, and thus accurate solar land use metrics allowing more accurate predictions are of value to policymakers, planners, and other stakeholders in the future photovoltaic build-out. In this paper, we leverage data from the newly released US Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Database to examine recent trends in large-scale solar photovoltaic land use. We analyze the relationships between solar array capacity density (W/acre) and a range of facility attributes to better understand the future land requirements of solar capacity expansion over the coming years. Installed capacity was the single strongest determinant of solar array area. However, we found substantial variation in capacity density across facility attributes, including mount type, latitude, urbanicity, time, and prior land use.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are expected to play an essential role in achieving the aviation industries’ goal of carbon-neutral growth. However, producing biomass-based SAFs may induce changes in global land use and the associated carbon stock. The induced land use change (ILUC) emissions, as a part of the full life-cycle emissions for SAF pathways, will affect whether and to what extent SAFs reduce emissions compared with petroleum-based jet fuels. Here, we estimate the ILUC emission intensity for seventeen SAF pathways considered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), covering five ASTM-certified technologies, nine biomass-based feedstocks, and four geographical regions. We introduce the SAF pathways into a well-established computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO, and its coupled emission accounting model, AEZ-EF, to study economy-wide implications of SAF production and estimate ILUC emissions intensity for each pathway. The estimated SAF ILUC emission intensities, using a 25-year amortization period, range from -58.5 g CO 2 e MJ -1 for the USA miscanthus alcohol (isobutanol)-to-jet (ATJ) pathway to 34.6 g CO 2 e MJ -1 for the Malaysia & Indonesia palm oil Hydrotreated Esters of Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway. Notably, the vegetable oil pathways tend to have higher ILUC emission intensities due to their linkage to palm expansion and peatland oxidation in Southeast Asia. The cellulosic pathways studied provide negative ILUC emissions, mainly driven by the high carbon sequestrations in crop biomass and soil. Using the core life-cycle emissions established by ICAO, we show that fifteen of the assessed pathways have a lower full life-cycle emission intensity than petroleum-based jet fuels (89 g CO 2 e MJ -1 ), offering promising options to reduce aviation emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Land Use Considerations for Large-Scale Solar

Energy development is the largest driver of land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Today, one of the leading forms of this new development is large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plants. This new issue brief is intended to educate local governments and community stakeholders interested in supporting solar development. Topics covered include: 1. Key challenges posed by storm water runoff and mitigation measures that can be incorporated into project development processes. 2. Vegetation Management concepts and their tactical application, including an Integrated Vegetation Management (IVM) strategy. Together, these strategies can help communities and local governments develop policies and guidelines on large-scale solar that can realize both environmental and economic benefits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Land Use Considerations For Large-Scale Solar

Energy development is the largest driver of land-use and land-cover change in the United States. Today, one of the leading forms of this new development is large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plants. This new issue brief is intended to educate local governments and community stakeholders interested in supporting solar development. Topics covered include: 1. Key challenges posed by storm water runoff and mitigation measures that can be incorporated into project development processes. 2. Vegetation Management concepts and their tactical application, including an Integrated Vegetation Management (IVM) strategy. Together, these strategies can help communities and local governments develop policies and guidelines on large-scale solar that can realize both environmental and economic benefits.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users

Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗