Results for “Large-scale of the universe” — Page 4

DOE OSTI2026

Physics-aware adaptive checkpointing with shadow systems for nonlinear PDE simulations

Large-scale simulations of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that exhibit strongly transient behavior and pattern-forming dynamics produce enormous amounts of data, which, even with modern storage systems, cannot be stored for later curation. Current I/O strategies either write dense time series of snapshots, which is often prohibitive in I/O and storage, or store a few checkpoints that enable restart but incur expensive recomputation cost and provide no control over post-restart error growth, especially when lossy compression is used. Moreover, most, if not all, existing strategies take no account of the actual physical state of the system. Here, we present a simple physics-aware I/O framework in which a low-cost shadow system adaptively triggers lossy checkpoints when the shadow system deviates from the fine-scale simulation. The shadow system can be a coarsened replica of the fine-scale simulation that evolves concurrently. This means that checkpoints are taken based on the physical state of the system: fewer checkpoints are triggered when the system is quiescent while more are taken when the system undergoes a rapid change. This type of behavior is observed in many systems such as Brusselator and FitzHugh–Nagumo. We illustrate that our framework maintains stable restarts, keeps fine-scale restart errors bounded by shadow errors, and reconstructs the time history with significantly lower error and storage than interpolating fixed-interval snapshots, with low-cost shadow replay and modest online synchronization overhead.

Gong, Qian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000235704142)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable slot-die coating of phyllosilicate membranes for selective ion separations

Abstract Two-dimensional (2D) materials have recently drawn attention as candidate materials for molecular-scale membrane separations due to their tunable nanoscale interlayer properties. Phyllosilicates, a broad class of naturally abundant 2D clay minerals, offer significant advantages over synthetic 2D materials, including low cost, stability, and environmental compatibility. While these properties make phyllosilicates attractive for industrial-scale nanofiltration applications, phyllosilicate-based membranes have, to date, only been fabricated at the lab scale via vacuum filtration. Scalable fabrication methods are essential to advance the technical maturity of phyllosilicate membranes and bring these promising materials closer to large-scale adoption. Herein, we have successfully scaled up phyllosilicate (vermiculite) membrane fabrication via slot-die coating and roll-to-roll coating of an ethylenediamine–vermiculite (EDAVM) mixture onto nylon. The coated membranes are 1–2 μm $ \unicode{x03BC} \mathrm{m} $ mu m in thickness and exhibit similar structure and performance to vacuum-filtered EDAVM membranes. The membranes also show selectivity for monovalent ions over multivalent ions in binary salt mixtures. This work represents a major step toward scaling up phyllosilicate membranes for industrial ion separation applications such as resource recovery from water.

Booth, Austin [Princeton University]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatial Optimization of Multiscale Biorefinery Deployment for a Diversified Bioeconomy in the United States

Strategic biorefinery siting is critical for a diversified bioeconomy, yet industry, policy, and research often focus on either large-scale biofuel plants or smaller-scale specialty bioproduct facilities, with limited coordination across scales. We address this gap by modeling biorefinery deployment spanning a 28-fold difference in capacity. We developed an open-source, spatially explicit framework integrating techno-economic analysis with logistics and refinery cost surrogate models to evaluate multiscale miscanthus-derived biorefineries across the rainfed U.S. for the production of ethanol, succinic acid, lactic acid, potassium sorbate, and acrylic acid. Overall costs change little as feedstock density increases, while transport distances decrease by ∼30 to 67% (∼100 km) and siting flexibility improves. Specifically, a 5-fold feedstock density increase (2% to 10% of suitable land) reduces minimum selling prices by <10% (e.g., 0.27 USD·gal –1 for ethanol). This limited economic sensitivity suggests dense planting is not required for competitive deployment, particularly for smaller-scale facilities. Representing collection areas as irregular rather than circular expands the feasible space under low-density scenarios. While large-scale refineries anchor regional supply chains, smaller facilities retain spatial flexibility even when large refineries are established. These findings highlight the importance of spatial representation and multiscale coordination for robust, regionally tailored biomanufacturing networks to advance renewable carbon integration without extensive land conversion.

biorefinery siting↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Simulations of H–He Mixtures at Planetary Interior Conditions: Demixing, Insulator–Metal Transition and Miscibility Boundaries

Accurate knowledge of the electrical and thermal conductivities and structural properties of hydrogen–helium mixtures under thermodynamic conditions within and beyond the immiscibility range is very important to predict the thermal evolution and internal structure of gas giant planets like Jupiter and Saturn. Here, we propose a novel method to determine the immiscibility boundary accurately without the need for free energy calculations, while providing consistent insights into structural and transport properties of mixtures. We show with direct large-scale ab initio simulations that the insulator–metal transition (IMT) of the hydrogen subsystem is strongly affected by an admixture with a small fraction of helium and occurs at temperatures significantly higher than those of pure hydrogen. At pressures below 150 GPa, the IMT boundary is not related anymore to the H 2 subsystem dissociation, the system remains insulating even after the full dissociation of H 2 molecules and its transition to an H–He mixture. The offset of the IMT in the H–He mixture relative to the dissociation region in the hydrogen subsystem and the significant reduction of static electrical and thermal conductivity by a factor between two and a few thousand relative to pure hydrogen found in mixtures have consequences for Jupiter and Saturn’s thermal evolution, internal structure, and dynamo action, affecting a large fraction of the interior of both planets.

Helium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assembly bias and local Primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI DR1 quasars

The analysis of the large-scale clustering of quasars (QSO) observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) represents a promising avenue for constraining local Primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), parameterized by f NL . The signal to be constrained is the scale-dependent bias induced in the 2-point clustering of the considered tracer sample. The resulting constraints on f NL , however, are fully degenerate with the local PNG bias parameter b ϕ , dependent on the assembly bias parameter p. Using IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations, we select a QSO sample reflecting the selection criteria and properties of DESI QSOs, and provide a robust prior for p, and thus for b ϕ , building on the findings of Fondi et al. 2024. We find a distribution with mean p̅ ≃ 1.4 with weak redshift dependence, stable to selection noise and consistent with the expected recent merger history typical of quasar-hosting halos. By comparing with the CAMELS simulations we demonstrate that this prior is robust to astrophysical assumptions and cosmic variance. Finally, applying this prior to the DESI DR1 dataset, we derive updated constraints on local PNG, obtaining f NL = -3.3±9.2.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on Large-Scale White Noise in the Cosmic Density Field

We present observational constraints on large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the cosmic density field, a phenomenon predicted to arise from non-linear mode coupling during cosmological evolution. Building on the theoretical framework of Paper I, where we demonstrated that non-linearities inevitably redistribute power from small to large scales through mode mixing, we confront these predictions with current cosmological data. We modify the CLASS Boltzmann code to incorporate a white noise component $k_\mathrm{BH}/k$ in the primordial power spectrum and perform parameter estimation using current cosmological data. The non-detection of excess power on the largest observable scales places stringent upper bounds: $k_\mathrm{BH} \leq 1.80 \times 10^{-13}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. These constraints imply the primordial power spectrum must deviate from perfect scale invariance on small scales, either through a cutoff at $k_{\mathrm{cut}} \lesssim 3~\mathrm{pc}^{-1}$ or through running of the spectral index with $α_s \lesssim -0.015$. Our results demonstrate that LSWN provides a powerful probe of the primordial spectrum at scales orders of magnitude smaller than directly observable, offering unique constraints on early-universe physics.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗

DOE OSTI2026

NeuDiff Agent: a governed AI workflow for single-crystal neutron crystallography

Large-scale facilities increasingly face analysis and reporting latency as a limiting step in scientific throughput, particularly for structural studies that require iterative reduction, integration, refinement and validation. To improve the time to result and analysis efficiency, NeuDiff Agent is introduced as a governed, tool-using AI workflow for TOPAZ at the Spallation Neutron Source. NeuDiff Agent takes instrument data through reduction, integration, refinement and validation to a validated crystal structure and a publication-ready CIF. NeuDiff Agent coordinates established crystallographic tools under explicit governance by restricting actions to allowlisted tools, enforcing fail-closed verification gates at key workflow boundaries, and capturing complete provenance for inspection, auditing and controlled replay. The present benchmark is limited to structural crystallography for periodic structures; magnetic structure analysis and incommensurate or superspace refinement are outside the scope of the current workflow. Performance is assessed using a fixed prompt protocol and repeated end-to-end runs with two large language model backends, with user and machine time partitioned and intervention burden and recovery behaviors quantified under gating. In a reference-case benchmark, NeuDiff Agent reduces wall time from 435 min (manual) to 86.5 ± 4.7 to 94.4 ± 3.5 min (4.6–5.0× faster) while producing a validated CIF with no checkCIF level A or B alerts. These results establish a practical route to deploy agentic AI in facility crystallography while preserving traceability and publication-facing validation requirements.

Xiao, Zhongcan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000220761961)↗

DOE OSTI2026

RADAI: A Large-Scale Realistic Dataset for Radiation Detection Algorithm Development

Open, realistic datasets are essential for developing and benchmarking radiation detection algorithms, yet they remain scarce. The Radiological Anomaly Detection and Identification (RADAI) project was develop to create datasets that meet the training and testing needs for sophisticated radiation detection algorithms. The RADAI dataset is a large-scale synthetic resource that integrates high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations with realistic urban scenarios to capture both background variability and source signatures. RADAI models construction-material NORM, people and vehicles, urban clutter, and dynamic environmental effects such as cosmic-ray and rain-induced transients, and they provide list-mode detector data with motion and response modeling suitable for algorithm training and evaluation. The RADAI project resulted in three publicly-released complementary datasets together with an online scoring portal for standardized performance assessment and an open software toolkit that supports data access, augmentation, model development, and evaluation. These resources enable reproducible comparisons across methods and promote rigorous studies at the scale required by contemporary machine learning. By grounding algorithm development in realistic, well-documented conditions, RADAI supports progress toward more robust detection, identification, and localization in complex urban environments.

Ghawaly, James M. [Division of Computer Science an↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biomanufacturing and Scale-Up: Pathways to Biochemicals, Biofuels, and Biomaterials

Advancing the bioeconomy requires the development of large-scale microbial bioprocesses capable of converting waste carbon streams into biofuels, biochemicals, and biomaterials at industrially relevant scales. While biomanufacturing has been successfully demonstrated at the laboratory scale for a wide range of chemicals, only a few have reached industrial-scale production. This is partly due to the inherent complexity of microbial systems, which rely on living cells with intricate metabolic pathways that are highly sensitive to environmental changes, making large-scale production difficult to optimize and predict. As a result, scaling-up bioprocesses remains a high-stakes challenge that requires deeper exploration. This involves integrating feedstock and microbial selection, upstream and downstream processes, and computational modelling, among other research efforts. Bulk and specialty chemicals derived from biological processes also face competition from fossil-based production routes, which have been refined through decades of technological advancements. While biologically derived molecules may offer more environmentally friendly production pathways than traditional chemical manufacturing, their widespread adoption depends on achieving cost parity-or superiority-relative to fossil-based methods. This emphasizes the importance of holistic research, including techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments, to ensure both economic viability and environmental sustainability. This editorial and special issue explores state-of-the-art strategies for converting waste carbon sources into valuable products. It discusses how enzymes, single microbes (e.g., extremophiles), and microbiomes (e.g., through division of labor) can be integrated with upstream and downstream process innovations-such as consolidated bioprocessing and in situ product recovery-to improve the efficiency and scalability of biomanufacturing. The editorial further highlights the role of computational modelling in understanding, predicting, and controlling bioprocess performance across scales, and concludes by emphasizing the importance of techno-economic modelling to identify technologies that can move to market.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

CORE-BFS: Communication-Optimized REctangular-partitioned BFS Achieving 160.845 TeraTEPS on Frontier Supercomputer

Distributed Breadth-First Search (BFS) is fundamental to many large-scale graph applications, but its performance on parallel systems is often limited by high communication overhead. This paper presents CORE-BFS, an extremely scalable GPU-based BFS implementation that introduces a unique rectangular 2D partitioning-based design for Frontier supercomputer. To further improve performance, we propose four key optimizations: (1) Rectangular 2D-partition specific data formats that use two compressed row and one compressed column status array bitmaps combined with a Double Compressed Sparse Row (DCSR) format per partition, reducing memory footprint and inter-rank traffic; (2) Adaptive frontier & communication strategy that unifies top-down and bottom-up traversal on the rectangular layout, uses lazy synchronization in top-down levels, and switches variants based on frontier size to minimize communication overhead; (3) Frontier-split degree-aware update that maps frontier vertices to thread-centric, wavefront-centric, and block-centric kernels based on their degree to improve GPU utilization and memory coalescing; (4) Row-reduction pipeline that overlaps bottom-up adjacency list processing with row-wise bitmap reduction to hide inter-rank latency. Together, these techniques increase parallelism while reducing memory and communication overhead. On the Graph500 benchmark, CORE - BFS scales up to 9,248 Frontier nodes with scale-42 graphs and reaches 160.845 TTEPS, delivering a 5.42 × speedup over our previous Frontier implementation.

Yang, Haoshen [Rutgers University]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final Technical Report for U.S.-Japan Hadronic Physics Exchange Program for Studies of Hadron Structure and QCD

Nuclear physics explores the fundamental properties of matter -- how protons and neutrons emerge as quantum systems of elementary particles, how they form the atomic nuclei, and how they give rise to the wide variety of phenomena and applications at biological, technical, and astronomical scales. It is a global scientific effort centered around large-scale experimental user facilities (particle accelerators and detectors), advanced theoretical methods and concepts, and computational techniques and resources. Exchange of knowledge and ideas, scientific collaboration, and workforce development on a global scale are essential for the future of the field. The nuclear physics program envisaged in the 2023 DOE/NSF NSAC Long-Range Plan and pursued at the U.S. National Labs has strong synergies with programs at other facilities worldwide and will realize significant benefits from international collaboration. Nuclear physics is also recognized for promoting international cooperation in the broadest sense through joint construction and operation of experimental equipment, personal contacts between scientists, and education and training. The U.S.-Japan Hadronic Physics Exchange Program (USJPHE) supported collaborative scientific research in hadronic physics and quantum chromodynamics. USJHPE focused on subject areas related to the programs at current and future experimental facilities in the U.S.\ and Japan and supported both experimental and theoretical studies. USJHPE particularly aimed to realize synergies between the hadronic physics programs at Jefferson Lab 12 GeV and J-PARC resulting from the complementarity of electromagnetic and hadronic probes in the multi-GeV energy range. Subject areas of common interest included the quark-gluon structure of hadrons and nuclei, meson and baryon spectroscopy, strangeness and hypernuclear physics, and other related topics. USJHPE also supported research in hadronic physics and nuclear-physics-enabled tests of fundamental symmetries related to the programs at Brookhaven National Lab, Fermilab, KEK, Spring-8, and university-based facilities in the U.S. and Japan. USJHPE especially promoted collaboration between the U.S. and Japanese nuclear physics communities in developing the physics program and instrumentation for the future Electron-Ion Collider. USJHPE was intended to provide travel grants to U.S.-based scientists (primary institutional affiliation with a U.S.\ university, national laboratory, or other research center) to visit Japanese institutions and conduct collaborative research there. The program supported senior researchers, postdoctoral fellows, and students. Continuing the setup of the preceding grant period, J-PARC served as the Japanese “hub” for U.S. physicists for short- and long-term visits, and JLab served as the corresponding U.S. “hub”. The program was officially managed through the U. of Connecticut in Storrs, CT. Support for Japanese physicists visiting the U.S. was provided through funds from Japanese funding agencies. The USJHPE program promoted the scientific exchange and the collaborative spirit in hadronic physics between the two countries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning-Based Anomaly Detection for PMT Data Quality Monitoring in the SBN and DUNE

Maintaining high-quality detector data is essential for achieving the scientific objectives of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program at Fermilab. Current data quality monitoring (DQM) procedures rely primarily on threshold-based metrics and manual inspection of detector monitoring plots, making the detection of subtle or gradually developing anomalies both time-consuming and dependent on expert interpretation. This project developed and evaluated a machine-learning workflow for automatically identifying anomalous photomultiplier tube (PMT) channels in the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) using optical-hit amplitude data. A Python-based analysis program was developed to process ROOT files, extract statistical features describing individual PMT amplitude distributions, and generate feature vectors for anomaly detection. These features were used to train an Isolation Forest model using data representing normal detector operation. The trained model was subsequently applied to independent detector runs to identify channels exhibiting statistically unusual behavior relative to the learned reference response. To support expert interpretation, the workflow generated complementary diagnostic products, including anomaly score distributions, normalized amplitude comparisons, decision-tree visualizations, and principal component analysis (PCA) projections. This project demonstrated the feasibility of integrating unsupervised machine learning into detector data-quality monitoring and developed a complete workflow for automated PMT performance assessment to aid expert-driven review. Beyond its technical contributions, the VFP appointment fostered a research collaboration between Aurora University and Fermilab and provided direct workforce development benefits by training the visiting faculty member in detector-scale machine-learning methods that are now being incorporated into undergraduate coursework and research. The methodology developed here provides a foundation for future applications to ProtoDUNE and other liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors, contributing to ongoing efforts to improve detector reliability, reduce manual monitoring requirements, and enable scalable data quality monitoring for future large-scale neutrino experiments, including the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE).

Colón Santana, Juan A. [Unlisted, US, IL]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Highly Efficient Selection of High-redshift Emission-line Galaxies for Future DESI-like Surveys with Deep Multiband Imaging

Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are an important tracer of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) and large-scale structure at z > 1. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using deep wide-area multiband imaging (e.g., from the Rubin Observatory) to efficiently select high-redshift ELGs. Using Hyper Suprime-Cam grizy photometry and COSMOS2020 many-band photometric redshifts, we design simple color cuts guided by a probabilistic random forest classifier to select galaxies at z = 1.1–1.6. We then empirically test and refine these color cuts using two samples of galaxies with deep spectroscopy and broad color coverage obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Compared to DESI ELGs at z = 1.1–1.6, we achieve a higher redshift-measurement success rate (89% versus 69%), a much higher correct redshift-range success rate (84% versus 34%), and a far higher net surface density yield (1372 deg −2 versus 660 deg −2 ). Combining our sample with current DESI ELGs would increase the net ELG number density by a factor of ∼2.5, moving it out of the shot-noise limited regime and reducing the uncertainties on the BAO scale parameter at z = 1.1–1.6 by a factor of ∼2 at the highest redshifts. We also test selections using shallower photometry and obtain qualitatively similar results.

Salcedo Hernandez, Yoquelbin [University of Pittsb↗

DOE OSTI2026

ODIN: Confirmation and 3D Reconstruction of Six Massive Protoclusters at Cosmic Noon

Protoclusters represent sites of accelerated galaxy formation and extreme astrophysical activity characteristic of dense environments. Identifying massive protoclusters and mapping their spatial structures are therefore crucial for understanding how large-scale environment influences galaxy evolution. We combine wide-field Lyα imaging from the One-hundred-deg$^{2}$ DECam Imaging in Narrowbands survey with extensive Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and ancillary spectroscopy across the extended COSMOS and XMM Large Scale Structure (LSS) fields (≈14 deg$^{2}$) to search for massive protoclusters. We confirm six systems at z ≈ 2.4 and ≈ 3.1, including three newly identified structures and three which overlap with previously known structures and/or systems detected using other tracers. We reconstruct their three-dimensional structures, estimate descendant halo masses, and for one structure at z ≈ 3.12, demonstrate that overlapping narrowband filters (NB497 and N501) provide accurate redshift tomography for emission-line galaxies. One protocluster at z ≈ 2.45 overlaps with one of the LATIS tomographic fields, enabling direct comparison between galaxy and H i overdensities traced by Lyα forest absorption. Another at z ≈ 3.12 hosts a massive quiescent galaxy (M$_{*}$ ≈ 1.2 × 10$^{11}$M$_{⊙}$), suggesting that overdense environments may play a role in accelerating galaxy assembly and quenching. Comparing Lyα emission properties across environments, we find that protocluster galaxies exhibit higher median line fluxes and a deficit of faint emitters relative to the field. The effect is strongest when combining 2D and 3D density information, indicating that galaxies in the densest protocluster cores are most affected by environmental processes. This effect is stronger at z ≈ 3.1 than at z ≈ 2.4, suggesting possible redshift evolution.

Ortiz, Ashley [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000900083184304X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lyman-$α$ forest holography: 3D predictions from 1D measurements

Cosmological analyses of Lyman-$α$ forest clustering rely on either one-dimensional correlations along individual sightlines or three-dimensional correlations between different sightlines. Because these observables probe the matter distribution on very different scales, they have traditionally been analyzed independently. In this work, we bridge this gap using ForestFlow, an emulator trained on a suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that provides a unified description of Lyman-$α$ forest clustering from linear to nonlinear scales. This framework enables us to determine the range of three-dimensional clustering models compatible with the DESI one-dimensional flux power spectrum ($P_{\rm 1D}$). The resulting predictions successfully reproduce the large-scale clustering measured by the DESI BAO analysis and provide physically motivated priors on nonlinear clustering that are used in a companion paper presenting the full-shape analysis of the DESI DR2 Lyman-$α$ forest. We validate our methodology using the large-volume, high-resolution hydrodynamical simulation ACCEL-2, demonstrating excellent agreement across the full range of scales considered. Finally, we combine constraints from the $P_{\rm 1D}$ and BAO analyses on the parameter combinations $b_δσ_8$ and $b_ηf σ_8$, finding that the two probes provide comparable constraining power while exhibiting complementary parameter degeneracies. Our results establish a direct connection between one- and three-dimensional Lyman-$α$ forest measurements through ForestFlow, an approach we term Lyman-$α$ holography by analogy with the reconstruction of higher-dimensional structure from lower-dimensional information.

Chaves-Montero, J. [Barcelona, IFAE] (ORCID:000000↗