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At least 73 records · Page 4

Autonomic Management of Space Missions

With NASA s renewed commitment to outer space exploration, greater emphasis is being placed on both human and robotic exploration. Even when humans are involved in the exploration, human tending of assets becomes cost-prohibitive or in many cases is simply not feasible. In addition, certain exploration missions will require spacecraft that will be capable of venturing where humans cannot be sent. Early space missions were operated manually from ground control centers with little or no automated operations. In the mid-l980s, the high costs of satellite operations prompted NASA, and others, to begin automating as many functions as possible. In our context, a system is autonomous if it can achieve its goals without human intervention. A number of more-or-less automated ground systems exist today, but work continues with the goal being to reduce operations costs to even lower levels. Cost reductions can be achieved in a number of areas. Ground control and spacecraft operations are two such areas where greater autonomy can reduce costs. As a consequence, autonomy is increasingly seen as a critical approach for robotic missions and for some aspects of manned missions. Although autonomy will be critical for the success of future missions (and indeed will enable certain kinds of science data gathering approaches), missions imbued with autonomy must also exhibit autonomic properties. Exploitation of autonomy alone, without emphasis on autonomic properties, will leave spacecraft vulnerable to the dangerous environments in which they must operate. Without autonomic properties, a spacecraft may be unable to recognize negative environmental effects on its components and subsystems, or may be unable to take any action to ameliorate the effects. The spacecraft, though operating autonomously, may then sustain a degradation of performance of components or subsystems, and consequently may have a reduced potential for achieving mission objectives. In extreme cases, lack of autonomic properties could leave the spacecraft unable to recover from faults. Ensuring that exploration spacecraft have autonomic properties will increase the survivability and therefore the likelihood of success of these missions. In fact, over time, as mission requirements increased demands on spacecraft capabilities and longevity, designers have gradually built more autonomicity into spacecraft. For example, a spacecraft in low-earth orbit may experience an out-of-bounds perturbation of its attitude (orientation) due to increased drag caused by increased atmospheric density at its altitude as a result of a sufficiently large solar flare. If the spacecraft was designed to recognize the excessive attitude perturbation, it could decide to protect itself by going into a safe-hold mode where its internal configuration and operation are altered to conserve power and its coarse attitude is adjusted to point its solar panels toward the Sun to maximize power generation. This is an example of a simple type of autonomic behavior that has actually occurred. Future mission concepts will be increasingly dependent on space system survivability enabled by more advanced types of autonomic behaviors

Hinchey, Michael G.

Techno-Economic Analysis of Geologically Connected Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) Concept for District Cooling at the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras: Preprint

At the University of Puerto Rico at Rio Piedras, a central chilled water plant supplies cooling to several campus buildings, contributing significantly to electricity demand during daytime peak hours, particularly in the summer months. These operational challenges are exacerbated by Puerto Rico's tropical rainforest climate and a power grid vulnerable to frequent disruptions caused by hurricanes and tropical storms. This study presents a techno-economic analysis of the existing chilled water plant serving four representative campus buildings and introduces a conceptual alternative: the Geologically connected Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) system. GeoSWAC leverages stable low temperatures of deep ocean water (~1 km depth), hydraulically connected to an inland well, to deliver cooling without the use of vapor-compression refrigeration. Using modeled annual cooling loads and chiller performance data, capital costs, energy consumption, and levelized cost of cooling (LCOC) were evaluated for both systems. While GeoSWAC showed higher capital costs than the chiller-based scenario, operational costs were significantly lower at $26k-$53k annually, resulting in a lower LCOC between $2.3/MWh and $8.2/MWh compared to $30.2/MWh-$33.6/MWh for the chiller scenario. These results suggest that the GeoSWAC system offers a promising, low-energy, and climate-resilient alternative for large-scale cooling in tropical coastal environments, with significant potential to reduce peak electricity demand and improve long-term system reliability.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Demonstration of the carbon capture with building make-up air unit

Building-integrated carbon capture technology has the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture while improving indoor air quality (IAQ). To promote the adoption of CO 2 capture in a building environment, this study investigated the possibility of integrating carbon capture technology with an existing rooftop make-up air unit (MAU) system to trap CO 2 . Here, in this study, a modular compact CO 2 capture system containing amine-functionalized polymer fibers was examined. The system, which was installed at the exhaust of the MAU, captures CO 2 before it leaves the building to enter the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. The demonstrated average amount of CO 2 captured was 1.1–1.4 mmol/g of adsorbent material. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) was further performed on the CO 2 capture system, considering material costs, energy costs, as well as transportation and regeneration costs. These results were then used to estimate the levelized cost per ton CO 2 captured (LCOC). To achieve LCOC below $\$$100/t-CO 2 , adsorbents should have working capacities of 4.9 t and 3 t-CO 2 /year for 5 years and 10 years of operation, respectively. In summary, this study highlights a viable path toward the decarbonization of the commercial buildings sector and provides quantitative performance and economic insight on the suitability of building-integrated carbon capture technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Drive Cycles, Battery Pack Scaling, and Usage Considerations for Long-Haul and Regional-Haul Electric Trucks

Electrifying Class-8 heavy-duty trucks presents a promising opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce freight transport costs. Battery electric trucks (BETs), once considered niche, are gaining traction due to advancements in battery technology and cost reductions. However, accurately predicting battery lifespan under realistic usage conditions remains a key challenge. Understanding battery failure mechanisms and their links to design, operation, and management is essential for developers and fleet operators. This study introduces a method to develop simplified, lab-testable dynamic stress test (DST) cycles for regional and long-haul Class-8 BETs, derived from real-world diesel truck usage. These DSTs enable benchmarking of battery technologies, identification of aging stressors, and optimization of battery design, life, and cost. The approach supports evaluation of key metrics such as levelized cost of driving and total cost of ownership, aiding fair comparisons and adoption decisions. We also propose feasible battery pack sizes that meet current driving demands with strategic charging, and a method to scale pack-level DSTs to cell-level cycles for lab-based testing. These tools facilitate tradeoff analysis across battery chemistries, pack sizing, and charging strategies, while offering means to get insights into battery aging under realistic conditions-ultimately supporting informed BET deployment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

The Cost of Offshore Wind Energy in the United States From 2025 to 2050

This study presents estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy throughout major U.S. coastal regions between a time frame of 2025 - 2050. The LCOE modeling accounts for impacts of supply chain shocks, inflation, and rising interest rates on cost. Given the near-term uncertainty in these factors, we present three possible scenarios driven by how uncertainty in costs, technology, and deployment may evolve over time. The cost increases reported by industry in recent years will likely be felt over next several years, but we expect long-term cost reductions enabled by growing offshore wind deployment and industry learning. This study helps inform decision-makers about the potential role that offshore wind energy can play in future clean energy strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY

Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN

Hybrid Grid-Renewable Strategies for Green Steel Production under Electricity Market Uncertainty

Volatility in grid spot prices is expected to rise with climate change-driven demand pressures and the intermittency of renewable generation. This volatility poses financial risks for green hydrogen-based steel production. The Direct Reduced Iron− Electric Arc Furnace (H 2 -DRI-EAF) is a promising pathway to decarbonize steel, which accounts for ∼8% of global GHG emissions. This study assesses how increased grid spot price volatility influences the optimal sizing and operation of H2-DRIEAF plants under three operational scenarios: grid-connected, fully behind-the-meter (islanded), and mixed-mode (semi-islanded). Our analysis identifies the semi-islanded configuration as the most cost-effective solution, achieving a Levelized Cost of Steel (LCOS) 10−35% lower than sourcing energy solely from the grid. Modeling also shows hydrogen storage or selective electricity purchases at high prices (>$1000/MWh) generally outperform battery storage, except under extreme volatility. Additionally, the study explores cost reduction strategies to strengthen the economic viability and sustainability of green steel production.

Batteries

Techno-Economic Analysis of Large-Scale Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems

The objective of this study is to establish a detailed techno-economic analysis to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. The pathway considers incremental technology improvements to key system parameters, with system performance and cost assessed for each pathway step. Briefly, the steps include cell voltage degradation rate improvements, operational current density increases, operating temperature reduction, improved steam utilization, increased system capacity factor, and reduced cell/stack capital costs. Each step is assessed at both atmospheric and pressurized (8 bar) operating conditions. To supplement assessment at each of these discrete stepwise improvements, sensitivity studies are conducted to understand the relative impact of each parameter and identify avenues for additional cost reductions. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented. For the end-of-pathway case, which includes all the incremental research and development improvements, the cost of hydrogen produced is reduced by 50 percent from the state-of-the-art case.

08 HYDROGEN

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO

Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.

Henry, Samuel

Hydrogen Carriers for Renewable Microgrid System Applications

Utility-scale energy storage can help improve grid reliability, reduce costs, and promote faster adoption of intermittent sources such as solar and wind. This paper analyzes the technical aspects and economics of standalone microgrids operating on intermittent power combined with hydrogen energy storage. It explores the feasibility of using dibenzyltoluene (DBT) as a liquid organic hydrogen carrier to absorb excess energy during periods of high supply and polymer electrolyte fuel cells to generate electrical energy during periods of low supply. A comparative analysis is conducted on three power demand scenarios (industrial, residential, and office), in conjunction with three alternative energy sources: solar, wind and wind–solar mix. A mixed system of solar and wind energy can maintain an annual average efficiency above 70%, except for residential power demand, which lowered the efficiency to 67%. A balanced combination of wind and solar power was the most cost-effective option. The current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for industrial power demand was estimated to 15 ¢/kWh, and it is projected to decrease to 9 ¢/kWh in the future. For residential power demand, the LCOE was 45% higher due to the demand profile. In comparison, battery storage is significantly more expensive than hydrogen storage, even with future cost projections, increasing the LCOE between 60 and 120 ¢/kWh.

PEM electrolysis

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)

Manufacturing Cost Analysis for PEM Electrolyzers and Perspectives for Future Cost Reduction

Electrolyzer capital costs strongly influence the total levelized cost of hydrogen production and have implications for hydrogen deployment. Current electrolyzer costs are high, and large cost reductions may be needed to achieve competitive hydrogen costs and targets. Understanding pathways for cost reduction via R&D and deployment is a critical research area for informed energy planning and enabling hydrogen use. This work presents bottom-up cost estimates of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems tied to design specifications and discusses perspectives for cost reduction opportunities based on ongoing research. We use a detailed manufacturing and process model for a 1 MW PEM electrolyzer stack and balance of plant (BOP) for rigorous cost estimation. This allows for robust estimates of component and manufacturing costs and examination of key cost contributors. Stack costs are dominated by material costs such as iridium and platinum catalysts, especially at high manufacturing rates; power electronics and hydrogen purification equipment are the largest contributors to BOP cost. At higher manufacturing rates, better equipment utilization could reduce stack costs significantly, and we estimate that experience and bulk purchasing will allow for cost reductions to some BOP components. Still, many well-established BOP technologies and stack material costs are less likely to see significant cost reductions at high manufacturing rates. As such, manufacturing scale is limited in how much it can reduce electrolyzer costs, and additional advances for cost reduction may be needed to achieve cost targets. It will likely take many combined strategies to achieve significant cost reductions for electrolyzers and enable low-cost hydrogen production. We can use our manufacturing cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from the considerations described above and demonstrate pathways to lower cost electrolyzers. This allows for better understanding of cost reduction strategies and enables more informed research, development, and deployment for electrolyzers.

cost

Hydrogen Production Cost from Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to estimate the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) production using Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide (PSO) electrolysis. The analysis evaluates Current (2025) and Future (2035) technology cases at centralized plant scales of 50 and 500 metric tonnes per day (MTD), assuming electricity, water, and air as the only system inputs. Untaxed, unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is projected to range from 2020 $\$$1.81 to $\$$2.47/kg H 2 at an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and 97% capacity factor under Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) deployment assumptions. Total installed capital cost was developed using bottom-up Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) stack cost modeling and detailed balance-of-plant estimates, including mechanical and electrical subsystems, installation, site preparation, engineering, and contingency. Stack performance assumptions include thermoneutral operation, degradation over time, and periodic replacement. LCOH was calculated using the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) discounted cash flow model in constant 2020 dollars. Results indicate PSO electrolysis has potential for competitive hydrogen production costs under low-cost electricity and mature manufacturing conditions.

08 HYDROGEN

Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems

Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.

08 HYDROGEN

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: Energy Efficiency

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. This brief focuses on energy efficiency benefits, and builds on prior analysis from Berkeley Lab’s Cost of Saved Energy database. We show that energy efficiency remains a low-cost energy and capacity resource; the levelized cost of saving energy for the programs included in the analysis is $\$0.02$/kilowatt-hour and the cost of saving peak demand is less $\$120$/kilowatt. Understanding the impact of the program mix, portfolio size, and duration of implementation for customer-funded energy efficiency portfolios can guide regulatory oversight of these programs, help utilities better utilize energy efficiency as a resource, and inform building energy decarbonization policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Documenting 15 Years of Reductions in U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Costs

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) has played a key role in reducing PV system costs by supporting essential and high-impact research, development, and deployment (RD&D) activities. SETO's efforts go beyond improving technology and hardware innovations to tackle soft costs like installation labor, permitting, and customer acquisition. This holistic focus ensures that solar energy remains a viable, scalable solution for combating climate change and achieving the nation's clean energy goals. This National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) report highlights over a decade of transformative advancements in PV system technology and its cost reductions from 2010 to 2024, documenting a remarkable trajectory in line with the goals set forth by SETO. By analyzing benchmark configurations across different photovoltaic (PV) sectors over years, this work provides industry stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of cost trends and their impact on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) targets established under the 2010 SunShot Initiative.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Condition monitoring of wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies, recent trends, and future outlook

As global wind capacity expands, reducing operations and maintenance costs is critical to lowering the levelized cost of energy. This paper explores the state of the art in condition monitoring and prognostic strategies for wind turbine drivetrains, which are among the most failure-prone and maintenance-intensive subsystems. Current diagnostic methodologies are evaluated, covering supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, high-frequency vibration and acoustic analysis, machine learning and digital twin frameworks. Finally, practical challenges are identified that limit wide-scale industrial adoption, in order to guide future research and industrial efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY