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At least 73 records · Page 4

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Periodic variations of precipitation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

Statistical analysis of the satellite-borne Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data in the tropical Atlantic region reveals that the rainfall near local noon is higher both in frequency of occurrence and intensity than the rainfall in the same area near local midnight. Another striking feature that stands out from the analysis is an oscillation with a period of 3.3. days in rainfall occurrence and intensity. This periodicty is consistent with easterly waves traveling from the African continent to the region under study.

Rao, M. S. V.↗

Local and Remote Sources of Precipitation during the 1993 Midwestern United States Flood

During June and July of 1993, devastating and persistent rainfall caused substantial damage in the Midwest United States primarily focused on the Mississippi River Basin. Above noma1 springtime rains primed the region for flooding. The resulting wet soil was thought to be a major source of water for the heavy summer precipitation. On the other hand, northward moisture transport was extremely intense during the summer. In this study, we have implemented passive tracers to diagnose the geographic source of water for precipitation, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVT), into the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The WVT diagnostics can produce detailed budgets of the geographical sources of water that precipitates in any region, and they consider physical and dynamical tendencies at the model time step. The 1993 summer has been reanalyzed with the new WVT diagnostics to better understand the local and remote source of water for precipitation during the flood. Because the DAS also uses observations of water in the atmospheric hydrologic budget, we will also evaluate the impact of the observations on the local and remote sources of water in the DAS.

Bosilovich, Michael↗

Observation of Relativistic Electron Microbursts in Conjunction with Intense Radiation Belt Whistler-Mode Waves

We present multi-satellite observations of large amplitude radiation belt whistler-mode waves and relativistic electron precipitation. On separate occasions during the Wind petal orbits and STEREO phasing orbits, Wind and STEREO recorded intense whistler-mode waves in the outer nightside equatorial radiation belt with peak-to-peak amplitudes exceeding 300 mV/m. During these intervals of intense wave activity, SAMPEX recorded relativistic electron microbursts in near magnetic conjunction with Wind and STEREO. This evidence of microburst precipitation occurring at the same time and at nearly the same magnetic local time and L-shell with a bursty temporal structure similar to that of the observed large amplitude wave packets suggests a causal connection between the two phenomena. Simulation studies corroborate this idea, showing that nonlinear wave.particle interactions may result in rapid energization and scattering on timescales comparable to those of the impulsive relativistic electron precipitation.

Kersten, K.↗

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) C-band Radar Deployment Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, acting as sinks of total water in the atmospheric column through precipitation, thereby contributing to the atmospheric energy balance. They serve as a primary mechanism for the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum through the troposphere, significantly impacting the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local environment, and affecting the probability of subsequent cloud formation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Su et al. 2014, Sherwood et al. 2014). Convective characteristics including convective core size (reflectivity and updraft), cloud lifetime, precipitation intensity, total precipitation amount, precipitation efficiency, and lightning flash rates can be strongly related to environmental factors (e.g., wind shear, humidity). Since cumulus clouds evolve rapidly, their microphysical and dynamical properties and life cycles are challenging to resolve in models, and even in observations (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017, Ladino et al. 2017).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure in the DC and AC electric fields associated with the dayside cusp region

The cusp region as seen in the AC and DC electric fields is one of intense variation. The intensity peaks within the soft particle precipitation. The only AC signal that appears to be unique to the cusp is broadband ULF-ELF magnetic noise. Other types of emissions are also found at other local times at high latitudes. The pattern of these signals, especially that of ULF-ELF broadband electrostatic noise (BEN), distinguishes the cusp region from other regions. BEN signatures are indicators of magnetosheath-like soft particle precipitation but not necessarily of open field lines. In addition, large spike-like features in the DC electric field are seen near local magnetic noon which appear to be related to the large convective electric fields that have been observed at the magnetopause. These features are not necessarily tied to convection reversals, but may appear within broader regions of zonal convective flow.

Maynard, N. C.↗

Analysis of a Small Vigorous Mesoscale Convective System in a Low-Shear Environment: Formation, Echo Structure and Lightning Behavior - Pt. 1

The precipitation output was highly variable due to the transient nature of the intense convective elements. This result is attributed to the high Richardson number (175) of the environment, which is much higher than that of the typical MCS environment. The development of the stratiform precipitation was accomplished locally (in situ), and not be advection of from the convective region. In situ charging of the stratiform region is also supported by the observations.

Knupp, Kevin↗

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FAST Observations of Lower Hybrid Waves in the Cusp Regions

The Fast Auroral Snapshot (FAST) spacecraft has encountered the Earth's cusp regions on numerous occasions during its first few years of operations. Intense plasma waves are consistent features of these cusp encounters which are characterized by localized keV dispersed ion "Injections". Emissions observed near the lower hybrid frequency are frequently, though not always, observed in conjunction with the precipitating cusp ions. The waves are clearly electrostatic and often exhibit a bifuncation in frequency about the lower hybrid frequency. In some cases, numerous ion Bernstein waves are present, separated in frequency at harmonics near the local proton cyclotron frequency. An analysis of the measurements of the electric field components of the plasma waves gathered with FAST's spaced receivers (or interferometers) reveals their short wavelength characteristics. We examine several examples of such waves in detail in order to understand their growth mechanisms and to relate them with the cusp energetic particle populations.

Pfaff, R. F.↗

Observation of auroral secondary electrons in the Jovian magnetosphere

Localized enhancements in the flux of suprathermal electrons were observed by the Voyager 1 Plasma Science instrument near the outer boundary of the Io plasma torus between L = 7.5 and l = 10. This localization, which occurs within the general region of hot electrons noted by Sittler and Strobel (1987), and the spectral characteristics of the observed electrons are consistent with secondary (backscattered) electron production by intense Jovian auroral energetic particle precipitation and support the hypothesis that such electrons may contribute to the processes that heat the plasma in this region of the magnetosphere.

Mcnutt, Ralph L., Jr.↗

Investigation of S3-2 satellite data for local time variation of energetic electron precipitation

Data on precipitating electrons from the S3-2 satellite were investigated for local time variation at four L = 4 stations in the southern hemisphere. The equatorial pitch angles of electrons mirroring at 100 km, assumed to be the edge of the bounce loss cone, are calculated for L = 4 using the International Geomagnetic Reference Field for the epoch of the S3-2 data, along with the variation in mirror altitude per degree of equatorial pitch angle. The largest obstacle to the investigation was uneven sampling in terms of local time for all of the stations. However, this situation was improved upon by the use of S3-2 measurements at the conjugate locations of the four stations which provided additional data on electrons in the southern hemisphere bounce loss cone. Evidence for an effect of the dawn-to-dusk geoelectric field was found at two of the stations, Halley Bay and Siple, in the form of a minimum in electron precipitation at dusk. However, the present study does not completely resolve the question of local time modulation of electron precipitation at L = 4 in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, while the average precipitation was lowest at the Kerguelen site, as would be expected on the basis of drift loss cone (DLC) theories, the intensity at that site exceeds the level that is expected on the basis of these DLC theories.

Robbe, S.↗

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate over Land from TRMM Observations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations over mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveal that there are localized maxima in the rain rate with a scale of about 10 to 20 km that represent thunderstorms (Cbs). Some of these Cbs are developing or intense, while others are decaying or weak. These Cbs constitute only about 20 % of the rain area of a given MCS. Outside of Cbs, the average rain rate is much weaker than that within Cbs. From an analysis of the PR data, we find that the spatial distribution of rain and its character, convective or stratiform, is highly inhomogeneous. This complex nature of rain exists on a scale comparable to that of a Cb. The 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observations of the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer taken over an MCS reflect closely the PR rain rate pattern over land. Local maxima in rain rate shown by PR are observed as local minima in T85. Where there are no minima in T85, PR observations indicate there is light rain. However, the TMI brightness temperature measurements (Tbs) have poor ability to discriminate convective rain from stratiform rain. For this reason, a TMI rain retrieval procedure that depends primarily on the magnitude of Tbs performs poorly. In order to retrieve rain rate from TMI data on land one has to include the spatial distribution information deduced from the T85 data in the retrieval method. Then, quantitative estimation of rain rate can be accomplished. A TMI rain retrieval method developed along these lines can yield estimates of rain rate and its frequency distribution which agree closely with that given by PR. We find the current TRMM project TMI (Version 5) rain retrieval algorithm on land could be improved with the retrieval scheme developed here. To support the conceptual frame work of the rain retrieval method developed here, a theoretical analysis of the TMI brightness temperatures in convective and stratiform regions is presented.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Simulating Mixed‐Phase Open Cellular Clouds Observed During COMBLE: Evaluation of Parameterized Turbulence Closure

Marine cold-air outbreaks, or CAOs, are airmass transformations whereby relatively cold boundary layer (BL) air is transported over relatively warm water. To more deeply understand BL and mixed-phase cloud properties during CAO conditions, the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) took place from late 2019 into early 2020. During COMBLE, the U.S. Department of Energy's first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility (AMF1) was deployed to Andenes, Norway, far downstream (~1,000 km) from the Arctic pack ice. This study examines the two most intense CAOs sampled at the AMF1 site. The observed BL structures are open cellular with high (~3–5 km) and cold (–30 to –50 °C) cloud tops, and they often have pockets of high liquid water paths (LWPs; up to ~1,000 g m –2 ) associated with strong updrafts and enhanced turbulence. We use a high-resolution mesoscale model to explore how well four turbulence closure methods represent open cellular clouds. After applying a radar simulator to model outputs for direct evaluation, cloud top properties agree well with AMF1 observations (within ~10%), but radar reflectivity and LWP agreement is more variable. Results suggest that the turbulent Prandtl number may play an important role for the simulated BL and cloud properties. All simulations produce enhanced precipitation rates that are well-correlated with a cloud transition. Finally, the eddy-diffusivity/mass-flux approach produces the deepest cloud layer and therefore the largest and most coherent cellular structures. Furthermore, we recommend the use of a non-local turbulence closure approach to better capture turbulent processes in intense CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Filamentary current structures in the postnoon sector: Observations from UARS

During an intense geomagentic storm (Kp 7+) that began at approximately 1830 UT on October 1, 1991, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) satellite encountered the dayside postnoon auroral oval. On two consecutive crossings of the northern hemisphere between 2040 and 2240 UT, the vector magnetometer detected region 1 and 2 Birkeland and ionospheric currents in the postnoon sector. Low-energy electron events were observed near 1400 MLT within a narrow portion of the region 1 current system. Simultaneous magnetic field measurements revealed the presence of intense (approximately 20 microA/sq m) bipolar filament current structures embedded in the auroral oval. The upward-directed currents were associated with the more concentrated region of precipitating electrons. Ions associated with the more intense flux of low-energy electrons exhibited a dispersion signature typical of an ion velocity filter. The dispersion, aligned along the orbit, exhibited higher-energy ions at lower latitudes and earlier local times. The colocation of filament currents and ion dispersion signatures at such late postnoon local times is not consistent with typical E x B 'cusp' dispersions. These features more likely result from dayside boundary wave phenomena.

Bythrow, P. F.↗

Unloading Versus Driven Processes Derived from Auroral Energy Deposition and Polar Cap Size

The intensity of far ultraviolet auroral emissions at all local times during the three substorm phases has been monitored by the Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) on the Polar spacecraft for many substorms. Changes in the energy flux and characteristic energy of the precipitating electrons can be derived from these observations by modeling of the spectral emission processes. The global and local energy deposition is a new parameter that can be used in substorm studies since it provides a measure of energy transfer from the tail to the ionosphere due to precipitating electrons at a time resolution of three minutes. The polar cap area and area of auroral emissions can also be determined at high time resolution during substorms from the UVI images. An example of a substorm that appears to be driven by solar wind dynamic pressure alone will be presented. The polar cap area and other parameters do not indicate a growth phase prior to substorm onset. In another example, the slow growth phase followed by a very rapid increase in energy deposition during the expansion phase will be shown. This substorm was preceded by a southward IMF orientation. In these two examples, the role the solar wind in determining polar cap area is discussed. The time development of the area of auroral emissions is also discussed in relation to substorm phase and energy deposition. If the auroral emissions occur on closed field lines then the area of auroral emissions may provide an indication of changes in the thickness of the plasma sheet during each substorm phase.

Brittnacher, M. J.↗

Acceleration Processes in the Cusp -- Observations by the FAST Satellite

The FAST spacecraft has encountered the Earth's cusp regions near its apogee of 4175 km on numerous occasions during its first two and half years of operations. The cusp encounters are identified by their signatures of keV dispersed ion injections of solar wind origin. The FAST instruments reveal a complex microphysics inherent to many, but not all, of the cusp regions encountered by the spacecraft, that often include upgoing ion beams within regions of downgoing electrons that may appear as series of inverted-V features with energies near a few hundred eV. In many instances, upgoing electron beams have also been observed. Intense (> 100 mV/m) spikey DC-coupled electric fields and plasma waves are common features of the cusp encounters which also provide evidence for the presence of such local acceleration processes. In some cases, the FAST data show clear modulation of the precipitating magnetosheath ions indicative that they are affected by local electric potentials, as evidenced by simultaneous electron acceleration within such intervals. Furthermore, the acceleration events are sometimes organized with an apparent cellular structure that suggest Alfven waves or other large scale phenomena are controlling the localized potentials. We examine several cusp encounters in detail in order to study the complex relation of the cusp energetic particle populations with the plasma waves and DC electric fields.

Pfaff, R. F.↗

Acceleration Processes in the Cusp: Observations by the FAST Satellite

The Fast Auroral Snapshot (FAST) spacecraft has encountered the Earth's cusp regions near its apogee of 4175 km on numerous occasions during its first two and half years of operations. The cusp encounters are identified by their signatures of keV dispersed ion injections of solar wind origin. The FAST instruments reveal a complex microphysics inherent to many, but not all, of the cusp regions encountered by the spacecraft, that often include upgoing ion beams within regions of downgoing electrons that may appear as series of inverted-V features with energies near a few hundred eV. In many instances, upgoing electron beams have also been observed. Intense (> 100 mV/m) spikey DC-coupled electric fields and plasma waves are common features of the cusp encounters which also provide evidence for the presence of such local acceleration processes. In some cases, the FAST data show clear modulation of the precipitating magnetosheath ions indicative that they are affected by local electric potentials, as evidenced by simultaneous electron acceleration within such intervals. Furthermore, the acceleration events are sometimes organized with an apparent cellular structure that suggest Alfv6n waves or other large scale phenomena are controlling the localized potentials. We examine several cusp encounters in detail in order to study the complex relation of the cusp energetic particle populations with the plasma waves and DC electric fields.

Pfaff, R. F.↗