Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Local sensitivity analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative imaging framework for lithium morphology: Linking deposition uniformity to cycle stability in lithium metal batteries

Characterizing the morphology of lithium (Li) is crucial for developing long-lasting lithium metal batteries. It is well established that more uniform Li deposition correlates with better cell performance. Li morphology is often characterized through qualitative analysis of scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images; however, there are no widely accepted metrics to quantitatively describe deposition uniformity. Here, we propose a framework to quantify uniformity through SEM image analysis via the index of dispersion (ID) metric, which is defined and presented in the context of Li metal batteries. We also explore experimental impacts of sampling protocols onIDmeasurements. Our results demonstrate that theIDmetric is highly sensitive to variations in deposition uniformity, including the coexistence and uniformity of multiple morphologies, uniformity within a single morphology, and particle size distribution uniformity. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that uniformity, as measured by theID, can be related to the average potential of Li||Li symmetric cells over cycling. Higher capacity cycling leads to more pronounced changes in bothIDand average cell potential. Local minima/maxima are found consistently in bothIDand average cell potential immediately before cells short-circuit, which we suggest may indicate a collapse of the microstructure prior to failure. We put forward this framework as a more robust approach to quantify Li deposition uniformity, advancing the development of Li metal batteries that are safer and longer lasting.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Minimal cyclic behavior in sheared amorphous solids

Although jammed packings of soft spheres exist in potential energy landscapes with a vast number of minima, when subjected to cyclic shear they may revisit the same configurations repeatedly. Simple hysteretic spin models, in which particle rearrangements are represented by interacting spin flips called hysterons, capture many features of this periodic behavior. Yet it has been unclear to what extent individual rearrangements can be described by such binary objects and how such objects interact with one another. Using a particularly sensitive algorithm, we identify rearrangements in simulated jammed packings and select pairs of rearrangements that undo one another to create periodic cyclic behavior. We find that the rearrangement pairs surprisingly persist down to the smallest increments in strain, even in the smallest systems we can study. We explore the statistics of these rearrangement pairs and find that there is a relation between the amount of hysteresis and the energy drop and mean-square displacement of the particles; these results are inconsistent with the scaling found in models that treat rearrangements as localized buckling events. Finally, our analysis shows that there is no clean distinction between the particle motions that represent the identity of a single, individual rearrangement and the particle motions that lead to interactions between separated rearrangements or hysterons. These results offer insight into how complex systems such as amorphous solids can reach a limit cycle.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid chemical characterization of latent images in EUV resist with 12 nm half-pitch features

With the advancement of high numerical aperture extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the new platform will enable chipmakers to achieve critical dimensions of 8 nm. However, resist materials face significant challenges in delivering increased sensitivity while managing rising stochastic variations. We aim to develop comprehensive techniques to characterize the chemical profile of latent images, stored in EUV resists after exposure and postexposure baking, which is essential for understanding the origin of stochastic effects. Infrared photo-induced force microscopy (IR PiFM) is a bimodal atomic force microscopy technique combined with an infrared light source, allowing for simultaneous sub-5 nm topographic and chemical characterization within a localized environment. Critical-dimension resonant soft X-ray scatterometry (CD-RSoXS) provides statistical data that reveal structural and chemical information for comparative analysis. For the first time, IR PiFM has been used to chemically map the latent images of EUV resists (after exposure and postexposure baking) at a record high resolution of 12 nm half-pitch, enabling nondestructive analysis of patterns prior to development. Furthermore, CD-RSoXS offers direct experimental observation and comparison of exposed, postexposure baked, and developed patterns, which align with the IR PiFM results. We demonstrate that the IR PiFM technique offers valuable insights into both high spatial resolution and local chemical information simultaneously. In addition, CD-RSoXS provides statistical results that support our main findings. This hybrid metrology approach leverages a multifaceted dataset by combining the most reliable information from each source, which is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic effects in EUV lithography processes.

O’Reilly, Padraic↗
DOE OSTI2025

SwinCell: a 3D transformer and flow-based framework for improved cell segmentation

Segmentation of three-dimensional (3D) cellular images is fundamental for studying and understanding cell structure and function. However, 3D cellular segmentation is challenging, particularly for dense cells and tissues. This challenge arises mainly from the complex contextual information within 3D images, anisotropic properties, and the sensitivity to internal cellular structures, which often lead to incorrect segmentation. In this work, we introduce SwinCell, a 3D transformer-based framework that leverages Swin-transformer to predict flow and differentiate individual cell instances. We demonstrate SwinCell’s utility in the segmentation of nuclei, colon tissue cells, and densely cultured cells. SwinCell strikes a balance between maintaining detailed local feature recognition and understanding broader contextual information. Through extensive testing with both public and in-house 3D cell imaging datasets, SwinCell shows utility in segmenting dense cells, making it a valuable tool for 3D segmentation in cellular analysis that could expedite research in cell biology and tissue engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neutron Total Scattering Analysis of Materials for the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Here, this paper reviews recent experimental efforts at the University of Tennessee and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to comprehensively characterize the structural details of materials relevant for the nuclear fuel cycle by employing advanced neutron scattering techniques. For the study of nuclear ceramics, neutron scattering offers distinct advantages over traditional laboratory or synchrotron X-ray diffraction, including enhanced sensitivity to elements with a low atomic mass, such as oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon. The key to these efforts is the recent advancement in the neutron scattering infrastructure at the high-flux diffractometers at the Spallation Neutron Source. The high neutron flux at these instruments enables neutron total scattering, a nondestructive bulk technique that simultaneously captures both short-range structural effects through pair distribution function analysis and long-range order through diffraction pattern analysis. This approach is particularly important for a comprehensive description of defective, disordered, or amorphous nuclear materials. The case studies presented here include analyses of the local defect structure in hyperstoichiometric uranium oxides and short-range order of ion-irradiated ceramics. This advanced analytical methodology will improve our understanding of the behavior of materials in extreme environments and contribute to the development of more resilient nuclear materials.

Neutron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multidimensional Coherent Spectroscopy of van der Waals materials and heterostructures (Final Technical Report)

This project advanced multidimensional coherent spectroscopy (MDCS) and related spectroscopic-imaging methods as quantitative probes of many-body optical excitations in two-dimensional (2D) van der Waals (vdW) semiconductors and their heterostructures. Monolayer transition-metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) such as MoSe 2 and WSe 2 provide a uniquely strong platform for excitonic physics due to reduced dielectric screening, which enhances Coulomb interactions and makes higher-order correlated states (e.g., biexcitons and exciton–trion correlations) more prominent than in conventional bulk semiconductors. At the same time, the same sensitivity that enables strong interactions also increases susceptibility to spatial inhomogeneity—e.g., strain gradients, wrinkles, nanoscale disorder potentials, and charge puddling—which can broaden resonances, obscure interaction signatures, and complicate device-to-device reproducibility. The work reported here addressed this dual opportunity and challenge by: (i) developing and deploying coherent multidimensional methods (including double-quantum MDCS) capable of isolating interaction signals with reduced background, (ii) integrating electrostatic control to tune carrier populations and interaction strengths in situ, and (iii) introducing complementary spatially resolved photoluminescence (PL) techniques—hyperspectral PL imaging and polarization-/field-dependent PL lineshape analysis—to directly quantify disorder, strain, and localization that govern the coherent response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Proteome-wide analysis of protein stability in Escherichia coli under acid stress

Knowledge of protein acid sensitivity remains sparse and is largely derived from low-throughput, enzyme-specific assays. We used a scalable framework to map acid stability across the Escherichia coli proteome to assess the acid stability of 1,675 unique proteins, estimating pH 50 values for over 90% of them. The parameter pH50 was defined as the pH value at which only 50% of the initial protein remains in solution following acid treatment. Proteome-wide pH 50 values ranged from 2.28 to 6.33 (median 5.11). Approximately 9% of detected proteins remained stable across all tested pH conditions. Our results align with published data and the assay of citrate synthase (GltA) performed here. Protein acid stability differed significantly by subcellular localization: periplasmic proteins were relatively more abundant in the acid-stable group, cytoplasmic proteins were abundant at pH 50 values 4.5–5.5, and inner membrane proteins at higher pH 50 between 5.5 and 6.0. Outer membrane proteins were too few to draw strong conclusions regarding enrichment within specific pH 50 groups. Notably, the periplasmic binding protein of the molybdate ABC transporter (ModA), was enriched after incubation at low pH. Estimated pH 50 values showed no correlation with protein isoelectric point and molecular weight. Together, this work provides the first proteome-wide map of protein acid stability and establishes a general framework for studying different chemical stressors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Observations of Solute Dispersion in Rocks With Distinct Degree of Sub‐Micron Porosity

Abstract The transport of chemical species in rocks is affected by their structural heterogeneity to yield a wide spectrum of local solute concentrations. To quantify such imperfect mixing, advanced methodologies are needed that augment the traditional breakthrough curve analysis by probing solute concentration within the fluids locally. Here, we demonstrate the application of asynchronous, multimodality imaging by X‐ray computed tomography (XCT) and positron emission tomography (PET) to the study of passive tracer experiments in laboratory rock cores. The four‐dimensional concentration maps measured by PET reveal specific signatures of the transport process, which we have quantified using fundamental measures of mixing and spreading. We observe that the extent of solute spreading correlate strongly with the strength of subcore‐scale porosity heterogeneity measured by XCT, while dilution is enhanced in rocks containing substantial sub‐micron porosity. We observe that the analysis of different metrics is necessary, as they can differ in their sensitivity to the strength and forms of heterogeneity. The multimodality imaging approach is uniquely suited to probe the fundamental difference between spreading and mixing in heterogeneous media. We propose that when multi‐dimensional data is available, mixing and spreading can be independently quantified using the same metric. We also demonstrate that one‐dimensional transport models have limited predictive ability toward the internal evolution of the solute concentration, when the model is solely calibrated against the effluent breakthrough curves. The data set generated in this study can be used to build realistic digital rock models and to benchmark transport simulations that account deterministically for rock property heterogeneity.

Kurotori, Takeshi [Department of Chemical Engineer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nonideal stability analysis of differentially rotating plasmas with global curvature effects

The linear stability of global nonaxisymmetric modes in differentially rotating, magnetized, nonideal plasma is critical to classifying turbulence and transport phenomena. We investigate the competition between the local magneto-rotational instability (MRI) and the magneto-curvature instability (MCI)—a distinct nonaxisymmetric low-frequency curvature-driven global branch that appears alongside MRI. Here, to accomplish this, we developed a nonideal global spectral method, which is validated against NIMROD code simulations. This spectral approach allows for the direct derivation of an extended effective potential formalism and a resistive Alfvénic resonance condition, providing a framework for direct analysis of energy contributions and confinement mechanisms. Our study reveals that the global, low-frequency MCI persists at low magnetic Reynolds numbers (Rm), whereas the localized, high-frequency MRI is stabilized by diffusive broadening of its structure around its Alfvénic resonances. Consequently, we identify the global MCI branch as the primary onset mechanism for nonaxisymmetric magnetohydrodynamic instability in systems with finite curvature, e.g., astrophysical rotators. We establish distinct parameter regimes for mode dominance: MCI prevails in geometrically moderate-thickness disks with intermediate curvature and radial gaps, while MRI dominates in thin, low-curvature disks with large radial gaps. Mode competition is also highly sensitive to the flow profile, particularly vorticity and its gradient, with nonuniform shear profiles exhibiting more robust instability due to flow curvature (i.e., the second derivative of the flow profile) and shear contributions. A key outcome is the development of spectral diagrams derived from the global spectral method. These diagrams comprehensively map dominant instabilities and their characteristics, offering a predictive tool for critical onset parameters (i.e., flow curvature, magnetic field, and Rm) and facilitating the interpretation of experimental and simulation results. Notably, these diagrams demonstrate that the global MCI is generally the sole unstable mode at the initial onset of nonaxisymmetric instability.

Haywood, Alexander [Princeton Univ., NJ (United St↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radio Afterglow Detection and AI-driven Response (RADAR): A Federated Framework for Gravitational-wave Event Follow-up

The landmark detection of both gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 has spurred efforts to streamline the follow-up of GW alerts in current and future observing runs of ground-based GW detectors. Within this context, the radio band of the EM spectrum presents unique challenges. Sensitive radio facilities capable of detecting the faint radio afterglow seen in GW170817, and with sufficient angular resolution, have small fields of view compared to typical GW localization areas. Additionally, theoretical models predict that the radio emission from binary neutron star mergers can evolve over weeks to years, necessitating long-term monitoring to probe the physics of the various postmerger ejecta components. These constraints, combined with limited radio observing resources, make the development of more coordinated follow-up strategies essential—especially as the next generation of GW detectors promises a dramatic increase in detection rates. Here, we present RADAR, a framework designed to address these challenges by promoting community-driven information sharing, federated data analysis, and system resilience, while integrating AI methods for both GW signal identification and radio data aggregation. We show that it is possible to preserve data rights while sharing models that can help design and/or update follow-up strategies. We demonstrate our approach through a case study of GW170817, and discuss future directions for refinement and broader application.

Gravitational waves↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microstructure-sensitive mechanical behavior of an additively manufactured psuedoelastic shape memory alloy

The additive manufacturing of shape memory alloys into complex geometries enables fabrication of advanced functional systems across a variety of fields and domains. This work presents results focused on the mechanical behavior of additively manufactured shape memory pseudoelastic NiTi. The deformation induced solid state phase transformation from austenite to martensite allows this system to accommodate large recoverable strains. This deformation behavior is fundamentally driven by crystal-scale transformation physics. Laser powder bed fusion processing reveals that the resulting microstructure, both grain morphology and crystallographic texture, is strongly dependent on the manufacturing processing history. Exhaustive mechanical testing demonstrates that these microstructural factors strongly impact both tensile and cyclic stress–strain behavior. Cyclic dissipative behavior, however, is similar across all tested microstructures following an initial transient period. Remarkably, analysis of spatial strain fields during tensile loading reveals two distinctly different localization “modes”. The first is initiation of localized deformation bands which continuously propagate through the tensile bar during loading. In the second mode localization is observed but lacks propagation; instead additional localization cites nucleate during subsequent loading. The latter phenomena is suspected to be driven by grain-scale deformation physics as the localized band morphologies coincide with grain morphologies. These phenomena strongly impact the resulting aggregate stress–strain behavior. Hence, manufacturers and designers of psuedoelastic functional components must at the very least consider the potential variability in properties when considering additive manufacturing processing. More ideally the process–structure–property relations can be used to further tailor and optimize final functional performance.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

Abstractrunoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high-category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non-extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak-category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high-category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high-peak-runoff events in snow-covered grid cells are associated with rain-on-snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back-to-back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR-induced runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Station Performance of the Idaho National Laboratory Seismic Monitoring Network Using Network Detection Thresholds

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Seismic Monitoring Network is located in eastern Idaho and monitors a portion of the intermountain seismic belt. It has been in place for 50 yr and has undergone several major changes, the most recent of which has been the transition to the Antelope real‐time acquisition system and the implementation of automatic phase picking algorithms to aid in analysis. This study discusses the efforts to evaluate the performance of the INL seismic monitoring network (and other surrounding stations) using the new real‐time acquisition system. The method outlined by Wilson et al. (2021) is used to develop an empirical relationship between the observability of local earthquakes as a function of magnitude and distance. This relationship is used to produce detection thresholds for Pwaves for all stations of interest. The INL seismic network has two main goals: monitor tectonic‐and volcanic‐related events and measure ground motions for input into seismic hazard analysis. Because of these two overall objectives, several seismic stations have been installed near critical facilities and, therefore, are not as quiet as stations that are used primarily for earthquake detection. This is reflected in their detection thresholds, which are much smaller for stations away from facilities. This study shows that the INL Seismic Monitoring Network is able to detect earthquakes near INL facilities with M L > 1.2, with redundancies built in to ensure this sensitivity even if data became unavailable from some stations. This study also shows “holes” in the monitoring network where the detection of smaller earthquakes is highly dependent on sparsely placed seismic stations. In conclusion, the results of this study will be used to govern plans for expansion of earthquake monitoring in Idaho and the surrounding region and to fine‐tune the detection thresholds for individual stations.

58 - GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of RF Sheath-Driven Tungsten Erosion at RF Antenna in the WEST Tokamak

This study applies the newly developed STRIPE (Simulated Transport of RF Impurity Production and Emission) framework to analyze tungsten (W) erosion at RF antenna structures in the WEST tokamak. STRIPE integrates SolEdge3x for edge plasma backgrounds, COMSOL for 3D RF sheath potentials, RustBCA for sputtering yields, and GITR for impurity transport and ion energy–angle distributions. Building on prior work by Kumar et al. (2025) Nuclear Fusion, 65, 076039, which validated STRIPE for WEST ICRH discharge #57877, the present study provides a spatially resolved assessment of gross W erosion at both Q2 antenna limiters under ohmic and ICRH conditions. Simulations using 2D SolEdge3x profiles in COMSOL capture rectified sheath potentials exceeding 300 V, leading to strong upper-limiter localization. Both poloidal and toroidal asymmetries are observed and attributed to RF sheath effects, with modeled erosion patterns deviating from experiment—highlighting sensitivity to sheath geometry and plasma resolution. Erosion is driven primarily by high-charge-state oxygen ions (O6+–O8+), while D+ plays a negligible role. Assuming a plasma composition of 1% oxygen and 98% deuterium, STRIPE predicts a 30-fold increase in gross W erosion from ohmic to ICRH phases, consistent with a >25-fold rise in W-I (400.9 nm) brightness. Quantitative agreement is within 5% in the ohmic phase and 30% under ICRH, demonstrating predictive capability. Importantly, the study shows that the magnitude of ICRH-driven W erosion depends strongly on the concentration of light impurities (O, B, N, C), which drive sputtering through high charge states. Cleaner plasma conditions with reduced impurity content are therefore expected to substantially mitigate antenna W sources in WEST and other toroidal fusion devices. These findings establish STRIPE as a predictive framework for RF-induced plasma–material interactions and support its application to reactor-scale antenna design.

Kumar, Atul [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000277475210)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

SAVY-4000 Finite-Element Drop Test Analysis

PFE Auxiliary Systems conducted drop testing on SAVY-4000 containers to evaluate structural response under 12-foot drop conditions. In support of that effort, a finite-element modeling capability was developed to simulate drop response across multiple container sizes and impact orientations. The purpose of this work was to provide a consistent analysis framework that could support interpretation of testing, compare response trends across multiple configurations, and generate quantities of interest for later comparison with experimental data. More broadly, the analysis and testing were intended to assess whether the containers continued to perform their primary function after a 12-foot drop, namely maintaining structural integrity and containment of the contents. The modeling approach combined an implicit preload analysis with an explicit drop simulation so that each drop event began from a mechanically realistic assembled condition, including compression of the silicone O-ring. Separate models were developed for 2-quart, 5-quart, 12-quart, and 10-gallon containers. The results were evaluated in terms of strain-gauge response, collar-lid gap behavior, and accumulated plastic strain. In addition, parametric studies were performed on the 2-quart container to assess sensitivity to O-ring stiffness, friction, canister thickness, geometry tolerance, and mesh density. The simulations showed that predicted drop responses depended strongly on both container size and drop orientation. Gap metrics identified cases in which the predicted collar-lid opening exceeded the nominal O-ring cross-section threshold, while plastic strain metrics identified localized regions of elevated permanent deformation. Parametric studies showed that the predicted response was especially sensitive to the assumed O-ring stiffness and contact friction, while the geometry tolerance study produced smaller changes in the cases examined. The main value of this work was that it established a repeatable modeling and simulation workflow to support drop-test implementation, evaluate effects of future configuration changes, and understand modeling assumptions that most influenced predicted response. At the current stage, the results were viewed as preliminary model predictions rather than validated predictions. The next step would be to compare drop-test data to the model so that predictive values of the workflow could be refined and used with greater confidence to assess whether the containers maintained structural integrity and containment of the contents after a 12-foot drop.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orphaned oil and gas well methane emission rates quantified using Gaussian plume inversions of ambient observations

Abstract. Annually, ∼ 3.6 million abandoned oil and gas wells in the US emit a combined ∼ 2.6 Tg methane (CH4), adversely affecting climate and regional air quality. However, these estimates depend on emission factors derived from measuring subpopulations of wells that vary by orders of magnitude due to very limited field sampling and poorly characterized distributions. Currently, US protocols to remediate orphaned wells lacks standardized quantification methods needed to both prioritize plugging and account for emission reductions. Therefore, sensitive, reliable, affordable, and scalable CH4 flux quantification methods are needed. We report the use of a simple Gaussian plume method where the dispersion parameters are constrained by in situ ground measurements of CH4 concentration at four locations 7.5–49 m downwind of the orphan well as well as local winds to estimate the leak rate from an orphan well. We derive a flux of 10.53 ± 1.16 kg CH4 h−1 during a venting procedure in April 2023 that agrees with the directly measured volumetric flow rate of 9.00 ± 0.25 kg CH4 h−1. This is 71 % greater than the 5.3 kg CH4 h−1 flux measured 7 months prior. Additionally, we discovered a secondary leak through the surface casing inferred as 0.43–0.67 kg CH4 h−1 both by our ground Gaussian analysis and by transecting the plume with an uncrewed aerial system (UAS). We show that in situ determination of the dispersion parameters used in our Gaussian inversions allows us to measure methane emissions to 15 % accuracy, significantly reducing errors when compared to the standard practice of assuming stability class. Our results help develop simpler methods and protocols for robust orphan well emission quantification that can be used for reporting.

Follansbee, Emily↗