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At least 73 records · Page 4

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion.

The problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls is solved using the Monte Carlo method. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of the two parallel walls and diffuse through another molecular species. The Monte Carlo analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk, and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs, the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the Monte Carlo result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Methods for Monte Carlo simulation of the exospheres of the moon and Mercury

A general form of the integral equation of exospheric transport on moon-like bodies is derived in a form that permits arbitrary specification of time varying physical processes affecting atom creation and annihilation, atom-regolith collisions, adsorption and desorption, and nonplanetocentric acceleration. Because these processes usually defy analytic representation, the Monte Carlo method of solution of the transport equation, the only viable alternative, is described in detail, with separate discussions of the methods of specification of physical processes as probabalistic functions. Proof of the validity of the Monte Carlo exosphere simulation method is provided in the form of a comparison of analytic and Monte Carlo solutions to three classical, and analytically tractable, exosphere problems. One of the key phenomena in moonlike exosphere simulations, the distribution of velocities of the atoms leaving a regolith, depends mainly on the nature of collisions of free atoms with rocks. It is shown that on the moon and Mercury, elastic collisions of helium atoms with a Maxwellian distribution of vibrating, bound atoms produce a nearly Maxwellian distribution of helium velocities, despite the absence of speeds in excess of escape in the impinging helium velocity distribution.

Hodges, R. R., Jr.↗

Monte-Carlo model of pitch-angle scattering in solar cosmic ray events

Monte Carlo simulations of the propagation of solar cosmic-rays in interplanetary space are reported, including the effects of pitch-angle scattering and adiabatic focusing. Time intensity profiles agree well with the corresponding spatial diffusion approximation for models close to those used by Gombosi and Owens (1980). Monte Carlo simulations of the same model problem yield results that disagree with those of Gombosi and Owens, and the most likely possible source of error in the Monte Carlo simulation is considered to be in the region near the 90 deg pitch angle where the finite step size introduces certain inconsistencies.

Palmer, I. D.↗

Orogeny and large-scale strike-slip faulting on Venus - Tectonic evolution of Maxwell Montes

Complementary data sets from the Arecibo and Venera 15/16 imaging radar systems are used here to produce geologic and structural maps of the Maxwell Montes, a region of large-scale strike-slip faulting on Venus. The maps are compared with the characteristics of other linear mountain belts. The tectonic deformation occurring in Maxwell Montes is assessed, identifying the structural elements, their tectonic origin, and their sequence. A geologic and tectonic chronology is developed and a model for the origin and evolution of Maxwell Montes is proposed.

Vorder Bruegge, R. W.↗

A multigenerational Monte Carlo model of a comet coma

A steady state multigenerational Monte Carlo model was developed to describe the distribution of a neutral coma species which was produced after several photodissociation steps. This distribution can be compared with either line profiles derived from long slit spectroscopic observations or narrow band imaging, and be used to determine the elemental abundances present in the comet coma. A Monte Carlo model was chosen due to limitations in standard forms of more analytic models, such as those of Haser and Festou. In contrast to the analytical models, the Monte Carlo method can be modified to include new physical parameters.

Ferro, Anthony J.↗

An assessment of the crustal remelting hypothesis for volcanism in the Freyja Montes deformation zone

The linear mountain belts of Ishtar Terra on Venus are notable for their topographic relief and slope and for the intensity of surface deformation. The mountains surround the highland plain Lakshmi Planum, the site of two major paterae and numerous other volcanic features and deposits, and evidence is widespread for volcanism within the mountains and in terrain immediately outward of the mountain belt units. While two hypotheses for magmatism can be distinguished on the basis of the chemistry of the melts, chemical data are presently lacking for the Ishtar region. The competing hypotheses for magmatism in Western Ishtar Terra can also be tested with thermal models, given a kinematic or dynamic model for the evolution of the region. The crustal remelting hypothesis is assessed, using the kinematic scenario of Head for the evolution of Freyja Montes. In that scenario, Freyja Montes formed by a sequence of large scale underthrusts of the lithosphere of the North Polar Plains beneath Ishtar Terra, with successive blocks of underthrust crust sutured in imbricate fashion onto the thickened crust of Lakshmi Planum and the mantle portion of underthrusting lithosphere episodically detached. The numerical experiments thus show that volcanic activity associated with the formation of the Frejya Montes deformation zone can be explained by crustal melting, due either to direct contact of crustal material with the hot asthenosphere or to heat generation in a thickened crustal layer.

Namiki, Noriyuki↗

Monte Carlo modeling of atomic oxygen attack of polymers with protective coatings on LDEF

Characterization of the behavior of atomic oxygen interaction with materials on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) will assist in understanding the mechanisms involved, and will lead to improved reliability in predicting in-space durability of materials based on ground laboratory testing. A computational simulation of atomic oxygen interaction with protected polymers was developed using Monte Carlo techniques. Through the use of assumed mechanistic behavior of atomic oxygen and results of both ground laboratory and LDEF data, a predictive Monte Carlo model was developed which simulates the oxidation processes that occur on polymers with applied protective coatings that have defects. The use of high atomic oxygen fluence-directed ram LDEF results has enabled mechanistic implications to be made by adjusting Monte Carlo modeling assumptions to match observed results based on scanning electron microscopy. Modeling assumptions, implications, and predictions are presented, along with comparison of observed ground laboratory and LDEF results.

Banks, Bruce A.↗

Preliminary estimates of nucleon fluxes in a water target exposed to solar-flare protons: BRYNTRN versus Monte Carlo code

A baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) has previously been verified using available Monte Carlo results for a solar-flare spectrum as the reference. Excellent results were obtained, but the comparisons were limited to the available data on dose and dose equivalent for moderate penetration studies that involve minor contributions from secondary neutrons. To further verify the code, the secondary energy spectra of protons and neutrons are calculated using BRYNTRN and LAHET (Los Alamos High-Energy Transport code, which is a Monte Carlo code). These calculations are compared for three locations within a water slab exposed to the February 1956 solar-proton spectrum. Reasonable agreement was obtained when various considerations related to the calculational techniques and their limitations were taken into account. Although the Monte Carlo results are preliminary, it appears that the neutron albedo, which is not currently treated in BRYNTRN, might be a cause for the large discrepancy seen at small penetration depths. It also appears that the nonelastic neutron production cross sections in BRYNTRN may underestimate the number of neutrons produced in proton collisions with energies below 200 MeV. The notion that the poor energy resolution in BRYNTRN may cause a large truncation error in neutron elastic scattering requires further study.

Shinn, Judy L.↗

Monte Carlo simulations of precise timekeeping in the Milstar communication satellite system

The Milstar communications satellite system will provide secure antijam communication capabilities for DOD operations into the next century. In order to accomplish this task, the Milstar system will employ precise timekeeping on its satellites and at its ground control stations. The constellation will consist of four satellites in geosynchronous orbit, each carrying a set of four rubidium (Rb) atomic clocks. Several times a day, during normal operation, the Mission Control Element (MCE) will collect timing information from the constellation, and after several days use this information to update the time and frequency of the satellite clocks. The MCE will maintain precise time with a cesium (Cs) atomic clock, synchronized to UTC(USNO) via a GPS receiver. We have developed a Monte Carlo simulation of Milstar's space segment timekeeping. The simulation includes the effects of: uplink/downlink time transfer noise; satellite crosslink time transfer noise; satellite diurnal temperature variations; satellite and ground station atomic clock noise; and also quantization limits regarding satellite time and frequency corrections. The Monte Carlo simulation capability has proven to be an invaluable tool in assessing the performance characteristics of various timekeeping algorithms proposed for Milstar, and also in highlighting the timekeeping capabilities of the system. Here, we provide a brief overview of the basic Milstar timekeeping architecture as it is presently envisioned. We then describe the Monte Carlo simulation of space segment timekeeping, and provide examples of the simulation's efficacy in resolving timekeeping issues.

Camparo, James C.↗

Monte Carlo simulations of particle acceleration at oblique shocks

The Fermi shock acceleration mechanism may be responsible for the production of high-energy cosmic rays in a wide variety of environments. Modeling of this phenomenon has largely focused on plane-parallel shocks, and one of the most promising techniques for its study is the Monte Carlo simulation of particle transport in shocked fluid flows. One of the principal problems in shock acceleration theory is the mechanism and efficiency of injection of particles from the thermal gas into the accelerated population. The Monte Carlo technique is ideally suited to addressing the injection problem directly, and previous applications of it to the quasi-parallel Earth bow shock led to very successful modeling of proton and heavy ion spectra, as well as other observed quantities. Recently this technique has been extended to oblique shock geometries, in which the upstream magnetic field makes a significant angle Theta(sub B1) to the shock normal. Spectral resutls from test particle Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic-ray acceleration at oblique, nonrelativistic shocks are presented. The results show that low Mach number shocks have injection efficiencies that are relatively insensitive to (though not independent of) the shock obliquity, but that there is a dramatic drop in efficiency for shocks of Mach number 30 or more as the obliquity increases above 15 deg. Cosmic-ray distributions just upstream of the shock reveal prominent bumps at energies below the thermal peak; these disappear far upstream but might be observable features close to astrophysical shocks.

Baring, Matthew G.↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

Highland Valley Networks and Ephemeral Lake Basins, Libya Montes, SW Isidis Basin Margin

This summarizes the analysis of geology and surface engineering criteria for an area on the southwestern border of Isidis Planitia. In this area basin plains adjoin volcanic plains of Syrtis Major Planum and dissected ancient highlands of Libya Montes. Previously three general categories of landing site have been discussed for this area: scarp-like terrain along the western margin of Isidis Planitia, marginal ridged plains, and terminus of a significant valley network basin draining Libya Montes. On the basis of geologic mapping and reconnaissance around the southwest perimeter, the plains marginal slopes adjacent to Libya Montes appear to best satisfy the thematic, geologic, and engineering goals and constraints of the Mars Surveyor program.

Crumpler, L. S.↗

Development of a Space Radiation Monte-Carlo Computer Simulation Based on the FLUKE and Root Codes

The radiation environment in space is a complex problem to model. Trying to extrapolate the projections of that environment into all areas of the internal spacecraft geometry is even more daunting. With the support of our CERN colleagues, our research group in Houston is embarking on a project to develop a radiation transport tool that is tailored to the problem of taking the external radiation flux incident on any particular spacecraft and simulating the evolution of that flux through a geometrically accurate model of the spacecraft material. The output will be a prediction of the detailed nature of the resulting internal radiation environment within the spacecraft as well as its secondary albedo. Beyond doing the physics transport of the incident flux, the software tool we are developing will provide a self-contained stand-alone object-oriented analysis and visualization infrastructure. It will also include a graphical user interface and a set of input tools to facilitate the simulation of space missions in terms of nominal radiation models and mission trajectory profiles. The goal of this project is to produce a code that is considerably more accurate and user-friendly than existing Monte-Carlo-based tools for the evaluation of the space radiation environment. Furthermore, the code will be an essential complement to the currently existing analytic codes in the BRYNTRN/HZETRN family for the evaluation of radiation shielding. The code will be directly applicable to the simulation of environments in low earth orbit, on the lunar surface, on planetary surfaces (including the Earth) and in the interplanetary medium such as on a transit to Mars (and even in the interstellar medium). The software will include modules whose underlying physics base can continue to be enhanced and updated for physics content, as future data become available beyond the timeframe of the initial development now foreseen. This future maintenance will be available from the authors of FLUKA as part of their continuing efforts to support the users of the FLUKA code within the particle physics community. In keeping with the spirit of developing an evolving physics code, we are planning as part of this project, to participate in the efforts to validate the core FLUKA physics in ground-based accelerator test runs. The emphasis of these test runs will be the physics of greatest interest in the simulation of the space radiation environment. Such a tool will be of great value to planners, designers and operators of future space missions, as well as for the design of the vehicles and habitats to be used on such missions. It will also be of aid to future experiments of various kinds that may be affected at some level by the ambient radiation environment, or in the analysis of hybrid experiment designs that have been discussed for space-based astronomy and astrophysics. The tool will be of value to the Life Sciences personnel involved in the prediction and measurement of radiation doses experienced by the crewmembers on such missions. In addition, the tool will be of great use to the planners of experiments to measure and evaluate the space radiation environment itself. It can likewise be useful in the analysis of safe havens, hazard migration plans, and NASA's call for new research in composites and to NASA engineers modeling the radiation exposure of electronic circuits. This code will provide an important complimentary check on the predictions of analytic codes such as BRYNTRN/HZETRN that are presently used for many similar applications, and which have shortcomings that are more easily overcome with Monte Carlo type simulations. Finally, it is acknowledged that there are similar efforts based around the use of the GEANT4 Monte-Carlo transport code currently under development at CERN. It is our intention to make our software modular and sufficiently flexible to allow the parallel use of either FLUKA or GEANT4 as the physics transport engine.

Pinsky, L. S.↗

Monte Carlo Methodology Serves Up a Software Success

Widely used for the modeling of gas flows through the computation of the motion and collisions of representative molecules, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method has become the gold standard for producing research and engineering predictions in the field of rarefied gas dynamics. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo was first introduced in the early 1960s by Dr. Graeme Bird, a professor at the University of Sydney, Australia. It has since proved to be a valuable tool to the aerospace and defense industries in providing design and operational support data, as well as flight data analysis. In 2002, NASA brought to the forefront a software product that maintains the same basic physics formulation of Dr. Bird's method, but provides effective modeling of complex, three-dimensional, real vehicle simulations and parallel processing capabilities to handle additional computational requirements, especially in areas where computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is not applicable. NASA's Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Analysis Code (DAC) software package is now considered the Agency s premier high-fidelity simulation tool for predicting vehicle aerodynamics and aerothermodynamic environments in rarified, or low-density, gas flows.

Source record↗

Geology of Libya Montes and the Interbasin Plains of Northern Tyrrhena Terra, Mars: Project Introduction and First Year Work Plan

The highland-lowland boundary (HLB) of Mars is interpreted to be a complex tectonic and erosional transition that may hold evidence for past geologic processes and environments. The HLB-abutting margin of the Libya Montes and the interbasin plains of northern Tyrrhena Terra display an exceptional view of the earliest to middle history of Mars that has yet to be fully characterized. This region contains some of the oldest exposed materials on the Martian surface as well as aqueous mineral signatures that may be potential chemical artifacts of early highland formational processes. However, a full understanding of the regions geologic and stratigraphic evolution is remarkably lacking. Some outstanding questions regarding the geologic evolution of Libya Montes and northern Tyrrhena Terra in-clude: Does combining geomorphology and composition advance our understanding of the region s evolution? Can highland materials be subdivided into stratigraphically discrete rock and sediment sequences? What do major physiographic transitions imply about the balanced tectonism, climate change, and erosion? Where is the erosional origin and what is the post-depositional history of channel and plains units? When and in what types of environments did aqueous mineral signatures arise? This abstract introduces the geologic setting, science rationale, and first year work plan of a recently-funded 4-year geologic mapping proposal (project year = calendar year). The objective is to delineate the geologic evolution of Libya Montes and northern Tyrrhena Terra at 1:1M scale using both classical geomorphological and compositional mapping techniques. The funded quadrangles are MTMs 00282, -05282, -10282, 00277, -05277, and -10277.

Skiner, J. A., Jr.↗

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.

Hanson, John M.↗

Pattern Recognition for a Flight Dynamics Monte Carlo Simulation

The design, analysis, and verification and validation of a spacecraft relies heavily on Monte Carlo simulations. Modern computational techniques are able to generate large amounts of Monte Carlo data but flight dynamics engineers lack the time and resources to analyze it all. The growing amounts of data combined with the diminished available time of engineers motivates the need to automate the analysis process. Pattern recognition algorithms are an innovative way of analyzing flight dynamics data efficiently. They can search large data sets for specific patterns and highlight critical variables so analysts can focus their analysis efforts. This work combines a few tractable pattern recognition algorithms with basic flight dynamics concepts to build a practical analysis tool for Monte Carlo simulations. Current results show that this tool can quickly and automatically identify individual design parameters, and most importantly, specific combinations of parameters that should be avoided in order to prevent specific system failures. The current version uses a kernel density estimation algorithm and a sequential feature selection algorithm combined with a k-nearest neighbor classifier to find and rank important design parameters. This provides an increased level of confidence in the analysis and saves a significant amount of time.

Restrepo, Carolina↗

Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo Simulations

Designing a spacecraft, or any other complex engineering system, requires extensive simulation and analysis work. Oftentimes, the large amounts of simulation data generated are very di cult and time consuming to analyze, with the added risk of overlooking potentially critical problems in the design. The authors have developed a generic data analysis tool that can quickly sort through large data sets and point an analyst to the areas in the data set that cause specific types of failures. The Tool for Rapid Analysis of Monte Carlo simulations (TRAM) has been used in recent design and analysis work for the Orion vehicle, greatly decreasing the time it takes to evaluate performance requirements. A previous version of this tool was developed to automatically identify driving design variables in Monte Carlo data sets. This paper describes a new, parallel version, of TRAM implemented on a graphical processing unit, and presents analysis results for NASA's Orion Monte Carlo data to demonstrate its capabilities.

Restrepo, Carolina↗