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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CUDO: closed-form universal dwell-time optimization for computer-controlled optical surfacing

Precision optical figuring demands fast and accurate dwell time optimization to reach nanometer- and sub-nanometer-level accuracy in next-generation optical systems. We introduce CUDO (closed-form universal dwell-time optimization), the first, to the best of our knowledge, unified closed-form analytical framework that supports both function-form and matrix-form dwell time models in computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In contrast to traditional methods, which rely on iterative optimization and hyperparameter tuning, our framework derives direct analytical solutions with no adjustable parameters. This approach unifies the solution principles of existing methods within a single mathematical model, delivering three key advantages: (1) accuracy on par with, or superior to, iterative solvers, (2) substantial reduction in computation time, and (3) numerical robustness. Comparative studies with prior art confirm that closed-form solutions achieve equivalent residual error while removing runtime bottlenecks. By simplifying the implementation and enabling real-time, scalable deployment, CUDO establishes a practical foundation for future deterministic fabrication of large-aperture and high-performance optics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deflagration to Detonation Transition Update: XDDT Code Modularization

A legacy FORTRAN 77 implementation of the Baer–Nunziato two-phase mixture theory for deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in reactive granular materials—hereafter the XDDT (eXplosive DDT) code—has been modularized to Fortran 90 with modular structure, external input files, and adaptive mesh capability. During validation, two code defects were identified and corrected: an inconsistency in the nodal solid pressure evaluation and a nonphysical burn-front tracking criterion. The ignition criterion was also corrected to use the granular surface temperature from the interface heat transfer model, matching the original Baer implementation. An initial attempt to validate against Figure 3 of the original Baer and Nunziato (1986) paper revealed that the code’s detonation velocity on a 201-node mesh (5.5 km/s) was approximately 21% below the expected Chapman–Jouguet value for 70% TMD HMX (∼7 km/s). Validation was redirected to the piston-driven DDT experiments of McAfee et al. (1989), Shot B-9036, for which well-characterized ionization-pin data are available. With the compaction-burn coefficient calibrated to 𝐶 𝛼 = 75, the XDDT code reproduces the DDT transition time to within 0.4% and produces a steady-state detonation velocity within 4% of the McAfee experimental value of 6.36 km/s. The burn model was generalized to support pressure-dependent exponents, enabling application to nitrocellulose-based ball propellants (TS3659) with a cube-root pressure dependence. Validation against the Sandusky/Baer PDC82 piston-impact experiment yielded a reactive wave velocity of 2.3–2.8 km/s, in good agreement with the experimental value of ∼2.2 km/s, and wave coalescence within 5% of the experimental timing. The mathematical model, input parameter requirements, and a roadmap for extending XDDT to PETN with an autocatalytic burn model are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling of coupled processes in fractured rock: From continuum to discontinuum perspective

Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes in fractured rock are playing a crucial role in geoscience and geoengineering applications. Diverse and conceptually distinct approaches have emerged over the past decades in both continuum and discontinuum perspectives leading to significant progress in their comprehending and modeling. This review paper offers an integrated perspective on existing modeling methodologies providing guidance for model selection based on the initial and boundary conditions. By comparing various models, one can better assess the uncertainties in predictions, particularly those related to the conceptual models. The review explores how these methodologies have significantly enhanced the fundamental understanding of how fractures respond to fluid injection and production, and improved predictive capabilities pertaining to coupled processes within fractured systems. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing advanced computational technologies and thoroughly considering fundamental theories and principles established through past experimental evidence and practical experience. The selection and calibration of model parameters should be based on typical ranges and applied to the specific conditions of applications. The challenges arising from inherent heterogeneity and uncertainties, nonlinear THM coupled processes, scale dependence, and computational limitations in representing field scale fractures are discussed. Realizing potential advances on computational capacity calls for methodical conceptualization, mathematical modeling, selection of numerical solution strategies, implementation, and calibration to foster simulation outcomes that intricately reflect the nuanced complexities of geological phenomena. Future research efforts should focus on innovative approaches to tackle the hurdles and advance the state-of-the-art in this critical field of study.

Coupling scheme↗
DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry structure of a Riccati equation appearing in penetration mechanics

In the design of projectile penetration experiments a matter of considerable interest is scaling: that is, the potential relevance of small-scale experiments to their full-scale counterparts, in a manner analogous to that most often encountered in the context of fluid mechanics. From the theoretical standpoint, phenomena associated with scaling and scalability can be assessed using the well-established tools of dimensional analysis and the Buckingham-Pi Theorem. However, the familiar precepts of dimensional analysis are themselves a specific manifestation of the broader group invariance properties or symmetries of a mathematical model. Here, this work explores these notions – that is, dimensional analysis, the conditions for realizing complete similarity, and any additional symmetry structures – in the context of a Riccati differential equation appearing in the context of penetration mechanics. The aim of the investigation is twofold: 1) to complement existing empirical considerations with a concrete theoretical basis, and 2) to provide a deeper theoretical understanding of the projectile penetration model and its many implications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Model for Analyzing the Effects of Power Outages on Customers

Power outages can cause significant inconveniences to critical services and substantial economic losses. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically analyze the impact on customers during power outages caused by various factors, such as severe thunderstorms, floods, vegetation, or mechanical problems, and to plan for reliable operation and control under such events. Power outages in different locations may exhibit varying characteristics regarding customer impact. In this paper, we present a mathematical model that captures the essential characteristics of customer impact during power outages. The parameters of our model include impact duration, recovery duration, maximum impact level, increase curve parameter, and decrease curve parameter. We demonstrate how historical power outage data can be fitted to our model, enabling a systematic comparison of outages caused by different factors in various locations.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗
DOE OSTI2026

SIMBER: the Simula Berkeley Education and Research Collaboration (CRADA Final Report)

The SIMBER project is centered around advancing the state-of-the-art in the science of modelling of the human heart and leveraging the collaborations between leading research groups at the University of California Berkeley (UC Berkeley), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and Simula Research Laboratory (Simula). In particular, the following areas of expertise are shared and expanded through this project: “heart-on-chip” experimental systems from UC Berkeley, mathematical modelling of the heart from Simula, and supercomputing software from Simula and Berkeley Lab. This intersection of expertise is already enabling the development of novel tools and knowledge that produce more accurate models of the human heart in both health and disease, which in turn are leading to drug screening technologies that make cardiac drug development faster, cheaper and more humane.

Li, Xiaoye Sherry [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) Program Version 7.4 Users’ Manual

The Radiological Safety Analysis Computer (RSAC) Program Version 7.4 (RSAC-7) is the newest version of the RSAC legacy code. RSAC-7 calculates the consequences of a release of radionuclides to the atmosphere. Users generates a fission product inventory from either reactor operating history or a nuclear criticality event. RSAC-7 models the effects of high-efficiency particulate air filters or other cleanup systems and calculates the decay and ingrowth during transport through processes, facilities, and the environment. Doses are calculated for inhalation, air immersion, ground surface, ingestion, and cloud gamma pathways. RSAC-7 is used as a tool to evaluate accident conditions in emergency response scenarios, radiological sabotage events, and safety basis accident consequences. This users’ manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for RSAC-7. Instructions, screens, and examples are provided to guide the user through the functions provided by RSAC-7. This program is designed for users who are familiar with radiological dose assessment methods.

73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of compressible fluid-dynamics in the chamber of inertial fusion energy systems

Here, this paper aims to establish new and innovative modeling capabilities for analyzing chambers in Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. IFE is emerging as a promising method to achieve fusion power production, but several challenges must be overcome to develop an IFE pilot plant or deploy commercial IFE systems. These challenges are both theoretical and technical, encompassing a deeper understanding of the underlying physical phenomena and the development of new technologies and materials. One of the needs is to develop mathematical models to describe IFE systems and numerical tools to simulate them. This paper contributes to this endeavor by presenting a new OpenFOAM solver for IFE systems, focusing on gas dynamics in their chambers. The analysis and development of chamber designs will play a significant role in the transition from single-shot experiments to high-repetition rates, as there is a need to protect the chamber walls from the intense radiation fields produced by fusion reactions. A promising design option, normally referred to as thick wall chamber design, consists in using lithium or molten salt jet arrays within the chamber. A critical phenomenon is the venting of high-pressure gases from the center to the external part of the chamber, passing through the blanket array. This process involves the propagation and attenuation of strong pressure waves, requiring suitable modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics. The solver proposed in this work implements a multi-material hydrodynamics model tailored to accurately describe the non-linear propagation of pressure waves while avoiding numerical oscillation issues typical of high-velocity compressible simulation. This solver is verified against numerical test cases, validated against experimental data, and applied to the analysis of the High-Yield Lithium-Injection Fusion-Energy (HYLIFE-I) concept. The relevance of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it contributes to developing and testing modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics phenomena, with specific focus on the new and unexplored topic of IFE thick-liquid-wall blanket modeling. Secondly, it marks one of the first applications of the OpenFOAM library in the research field of IFE systems. Finally, the investigated problem is of practical interest for IFE developers, as it provides useful indications about relevant phenomena in pressure wave propagation in the chamber of these systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Electric Vehicle Load Modeling Strategies for Grid Integration Studies

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, which has motivated the implementation of public policies to promote their use in several countries. However, the high adoption of EVs poses challenges for the electricity sector, as it would imply an increase in energy demand and possible impacts on the power quality (PQ) of the power grid. Therefore, it is important to conduct EV integration studies in the power grid to determine the amount that can be incorporated without causing problems and identify the areas of the power sector that will require reinforcements. Accurate EV load patterns are required for this type of study that, through mathematical modeling, reflect both the dynamic behavior and the factors that influence the decision to recharge EVs. This article aims to present an overview of EVs, examine the different factors considered in the literature for modeling EV load patterns, and review modeling methods. EV load modeling methods are classified into deterministic, statistical, and machine learning. The article shows that each modeling method has its advantages, disadvantages, and data requirements, ranging from simple load modeling to more accurate models requiring large datasets.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple-amplifier sensing charged-coupled device: model and improvement of the node removal efficiency

The multiple-amplifier sensing charge-coupled device (MAS-CCD) has emerged as a promising technology for astronomical observation, quantum imaging, and low-energy particle detection due to its ability to reduce the readout time for the same readout noise level compared with its predecessor, the skipper-CCD, by reading out the same charge packet through multiple inline amplifiers. Previous works identified a new parameter in this sensor, called node removal inefficiency (NRI), related to inefficiencies in charge transfer and residual charge removal from the sense node of each amplifier after readout. These inefficiencies can lead to distortions in the measured signals similar to those produced by the charge transfer inefficiencies in standard CCDs. We introduce more details in the mathematical model of the NRI mechanism and provide techniques to quantify its magnitude from the measured data. It also proposes a new operation strategy that significantly reduces its effect with minimal alterations of the timing sequences or voltage settings for the other signals of the sensor. The proposed technique is demonstrated experimentally on a 16-amplifier MAS-CCD. At the same time, the experimental data demonstrate that this approach minimizes the NRI effect to levels comparable with other sources of distortion such as the charge transfer inefficiency in scientific devices.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Report on the Integration of Experimental and Modeling Data for Initial Equivalence Study of Mechanical Performance in Irradiated LPBF 316 Stainless Steel

To ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies, faster qualification approaches are needed. Typically, the primary pathway uses traditional data packages consistent with the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code, which does not consider the environmental effects the material will experience such as corrosion and radiation damage. Examining radiation effects requires a significant amount of space in US facilities at the Advanced Test Reactor and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and suffers from natural gradients in temperature and neutron flux profiles. Ion irradiation may enable rapid assessment of radiation-induced damage to a material and is proposed as part of an accelerated materials qualification framework through the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program. To enhance the utility of ion irradiation as an examination tool, this report provides the initial assessment of engineering-relevant properties of microstructures produced from ion irradiation in the near-surface volume. Nanoindentation, Vickers hardness, and known tensile properties were brought together with simple mathematical models and experimental data for an initial equivalence study of the mechanical performance of irradiated laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) 316 stainless steels across length scales. Direct observation of the calculated ion irradiation yield stress and measured neutron irradiation yield stress at 2 dpa showed that both datasets exhibit the same trend with irradiation temperature and overlap within an acceptable band of stress values. Ion irradiations at 10 dpa serve as a prediction of properties to compare to postirradiation examination of HFIR-irradiated LPBF 316H further in the program. This work is a significant demonstration of the Licensing Approach with Ions and Neutrons, which uses ion irradiations to generate mechanical property information more rapidly than through neutron irradiations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Federated Learning Methods for Nonsmooth, Nonconvex, and Hierarchical Optimization (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the outcomes of a DOE-funded project on federated scientific machine learning (FL) under nonsmooth, nonconvex, and hierarchical optimization settings. The project develops new mathematical models, algorithms, and theoretical guarantees for decentralized stochastic, bilevel, and minimax optimization problems arising in DOE mission-relevant applications. A unified framework of randomized and zeroth-order federated optimization methods is introduced, providing provable convergence, communication efficiency, and sample-complexity guarantees. The report documents algorithmic design, theoretical analysis, and empirical validation of the proposed federated learning methods. The project also contributes to workforce development through graduate training and dissemination of results via publications and seminars.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Analysis of a Heat Pump Clothes Dryer with Thermal Energy Storage

Clothes drying is an energy-intensive process that causes significant electricity consumption and carbon emissions in the US. Approximately 83% of Households in the US own a tumble clothes dryer at home and 80% of dryers are electrical resistance dryers with low energy efficiency. Heat pump technology makes it possible for highly efficient and clean drying. Additionally, the ventless design of heat pump clothes dryers (HPCD) provides more installation flexibility. HPCD involves three primary mediums: wet clothes, a closed air loop, and a refrigerant circuit. The evaporator is used to dehumidify the wet air and the condenser is used to re-heat the dry air. One of the critical technological barriers to HPCD market penetration is its long drying time, primarily due to the relatively low discharging temperature and the slow response during the warm-up period. In this study, the thermal energy storage (TES) technology is adopted to address this challenge by providing pre-heating of air prior to the condenser to increase the operating temperature of the process air. The heat pump will charge the phase change material (PCM) in the TES device with heating energy during clothes washing and the PCM will discharge the stored heat to facilitate air heating during clothes drying. To analyze the optimal design and potential for energy saving and drying time reduction, a mathematical model of the HPCD system was developed. The HPCD is a highly dynamic system with a coupled heat and mass transfer and heat pumping cycle. This paper provides solutions to simulate the transient behavior of the system while maintaining low computational cost. The modeling result indicates reduced energy consumption and drying time by integrating TES with HPCD, as compared to electrical resistance dryers. The study can provide significant insights into improving building flexibility with TES and smart appliances.

Liu, Xiaoli↗