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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-I-43: A Software-Based Statistical Method to Compute Low Contrast Detectability in Computed Tomography Images

Purpose: The low contrast detectability (LCD) of a CT scanner is its ability to detect and display faint lesions. The current approach to quantify LCD is achieved using vendor-specific methods and phantoms, typically by subjectively observing the smallest size object at a contrast level above phantom background. However, this approach does not yield clinically applicable values for LCD. The current study proposes a statistical LCD metric using software tools to not only to assess scanner performance, but also to quantify the key factors affecting LCD. This approach was developed using uniform QC phantoms, and its applicability was then extended under simulated clinical conditions. Methods: MATLAB software was developed to compute LCD using a uniform image of a QC phantom. For a given virtual object size, the software randomly samples the image within a selected area, and uses statistical analysis based on Student’s t-distribution to compute the LCD as the minimal Hounsfield Unit’s that can be distinguished from the background at the 95% confidence level. Its validity was assessed by comparison with the behavior of a known QC phantom under various scan protocols and a tissue-mimicking phantom. The contributions of beam quality and scattered radiation upon the computed LCD were quantified by using various external beam-hardening filters and phantom lengths. Results: As expected, the LCD was inversely related to object size under all scan conditions. The type of image reconstruction kernel filter and tissue/organ type strongly influenced the background noise characteristics and therefore, the computed LCD for the associated image. Conclusion: The proposed metric and its associated software tools are vendor-independent and can be used to analyze any LCD scanner performance. Furthermore, the method employed can be used in conjunction with the relationships established in this study between LCD and tissue type to extend these concepts to patients’ clinical CT images.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating Optical Classification for Fermi Blazar Candidates with a Statistical Method Using Broadband Spectral Indices

We aim to test whether a blazar candidate of uncertain type (BCU) in the third Fermi catalog of active galactic nuclei (3LAC) can be potentially classified as a BL Lac object or a flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) by performing a statistical analysis of its broadband spectral properties. We find that 34% of the radio-selected BCUs (583 BCUs) are BL Lac-like and 20% are FSRQ-like, at a 90% level of confidence. Similarly, 77.3% of the X-ray-selected BCUs (176 BCUs) are evaluated as BL Lac-like and 6.8% may be FSRQ-like sources. And 88.7% of the BL Lac-like BCUs that have synchrotron peak frequencies available are high synchrotron peaked BL Lacs in the X-ray-selected BCUs. The percentages are accordingly 62% and 7.3% in the sample of 124 optically selected BCUs. The high ratio of the number of BL Lac-like sources to the number of FSRQ-like BCUs in the X-ray-selected and optically selected BCU samples is due to selection effects. Examining the consistency between our evaluation and spectroscopic identification case by case with a sample of 78 radio-selected BCUs, it is found that the statistical analysis and its resulting classifications agree with the results of the optical follow-up spectroscopic observations. Our observation campaign for high-|ρ{sub s}| BCUs selected with our method, i.e., |ρ{sub s}|>0.8, is ongoing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design.

Tomberlin, T. J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Integrating Symbolic and Statistical Methods for Testing Intelligent Systems Applications to Machine Learning and Computer Vision

Embedded intelligent systems ranging from tiny im- plantable biomedical devices to large swarms of autonomous un- manned aerial systems are becoming pervasive in our daily lives. While we depend on the flawless functioning of such intelligent systems, and often take their behavioral correctness and safety for granted, it is notoriously difficult to generate test cases that expose subtle errors in the implementations of machine learning algorithms. Hence, the validation of intelligent systems is usually achieved by studying their behavior on representative data sets, using methods such as cross-validation and bootstrapping.In this paper, we present a new testing methodology for studying the correctness of intelligent systems. Our approach uses symbolic decision procedures coupled with statistical hypothesis testing to. We also use our algorithm to analyze the robustness of a human detection algorithm built using the OpenCV open-source computer vision library. We show that the human detection implementation can fail to detect humans in perturbed video frames even when the perturbations are so small that the corresponding frames look identical to the naked eye.

Jha, Sumit Kumar↗
NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology: Validation

The cost and safety goals for NASA s next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to identify adequate statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The initial research work focused on establishing suitable candidate models for these purposes. The second phase is focused on assessing the performance of these models to accurately predict the heat rate for a given candidate data set. This validation work compared models and methods that may be useful in predicting the heat rate.

DePriest, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology

The cost and safety goals for NASA's next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to establish statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The research work was focused on establishing the suitable mathematical/statistical models for these purposes. It is anticipated that the resulting models can be incorporated into a software tool to provide rapid, variable-fidelity, aerothermal environments to predict heating along an arbitrary trajectory. This work will support development of an integrated design tool to perform automated thermal protection system (TPS) sizing and material selection.

Morgan, Carolyn↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of Statistical Methods for Detector Testing Programs

A typical goal for any detector testing program is to ascertain not only the performance of the detector systems under test, but also the confidence that systems accepted using that testing program’s acceptance criteria will exceed a minimum acceptable performance (which is usually expressed as the minimum acceptable success probability, p). A similar problem often arises in statistics, where we would like to ascertain the fraction, p, of a population of items that possess a property that may take one of two possible values. Typically, the problem is approached by drawing a fixed sample of size n, with the number of items out of n that possess the desired property, x, being termed successes. The sample mean gives an estimate of the population mean p ≈ x/n, although usually it is desirable to accompany such an estimate with a statement concerning the range within which p may fall and the confidence associated with that range. Procedures for establishing such ranges and confidence limits are described in detail by Clopper, Brown, and Agresti for two-sided symmetric confidence intervals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical method for the prediction of matching results in spectral file searching

In file-search techniques, the distribution of mismatches quantitatively measures the fit of a particular unknown against a given library. A simple theoretical method is developed to predict, a priori, this distribution. With this procedure, for any unknown code and library, the mean number of mismatches can be calculated exactly. For a given library and coding scheme, the mismatch distribution for most unknown codes closely follows a common curve which is easily calculated from statistical properties of the library. When this common curve is normalized to a constant mean, the observed matching behavior is well predicted. The theory should permit the user to more clearly assess the effects of errors on file search performance and suggest techniques by which recognition performance may be optimized.

Grotch, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Scientific/Technical Report: Integrating Advanced Software and Statistical Methods for Spectroscopic Dark Energy Surveys

“Dark energy” is a phenomenon of unknown origin that pervades the vacuum of space and is causing the present-day expansion of the universe to accelerate. Understanding the nature of dark energy is one of the most fundamental challenges to modern physics, having the potential to revolutionize our theories of both gravity and elementary particle physics. The effects of dark energy are currently only accessible to astronomical survey experiments that probe large volumes of the cosmos. One of the most powerful forms of experiment for studying dark energy is the cosmological “redshift survey,” which maps the large-scale structure of the universe as traced by the positions of galaxies, quasars, and intergalactic hydrogen clouds. The signature of dark energy and other cosmological parameters is imprinted on this large-scale structure as it evolves over cosmic time. This project focused on maximizing the accurate extraction of information from redshift surveys by improving the algorithms and statistics applied across the chain of inference from raw pixels to high-level cosmological parameter estimation. At the low level, this project developed new techniques for calibrating and analyzing high-background, low signal-to-noise data from astronomical survey spectrographs to provide reliable three-dimensional maps of galaxies and quasars throughout the universe. At the high level, this project developed new statistical frameworks for understanding the completeness of redshift surveys and the underlying demographics of the galaxies that they observe, thereby allowing for a more accurate connection between survey results and theoretical models. This work contributes to maximizing the scientific reach of existing and planned surveys, and opens new potential feasibility for more ambitious surveys in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Using spatial statistical methods to determine an effective minimum detectable activity - 15681

Instrument minimum detectable activity (MDA) is generally established by collecting multiple measurements over time of a single representative background location to estimate a probability distribution of instrument readings. A reading that is considered to be greater than would be expected from the background probability distribution (i.e., a low-probability event) is deemed to be sufficiently unlikely that it must be attributable to added radioactivity and is therefore used as the instrument MDA. An effective MDA can be determined from spatially distributed data that are much lower than the instrument MDA. This has been accomplished using a large number of spatially distributed data points (from a radiation survey) where patterns of elevated survey readings can be distinguished from background at levels. Given the variation of the instrument response and the relatively low regulatory action levels, it is vital to establish MDA thresholds that are well below corrective action levels. Processing of radiological survey data with the use of histogram binning and geo-statistics in enabling pattern recognition can be used to establish effective field MDAs that are much lower than instrument MDAs. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Methods for Effective Spatial and Temporal Scaling in Support of Probabilistic Performance Assessments - 17340

Performance assessments (PAs) for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste have traditionally been performed in a deterministic manner, with inputs specified as single values as if they carry no uncertainty. Modern PAs, however, explicitly incorporate uncertainty through use of probability distributions for inputs instead of single values. While this is clearly an improvement, challenges remain in specifying appropriate distributions, many of which relate to capturing the appropriate spatial and/or temporal scale given the PA model, and matching the scale(s) of data and information to that specified by the model. More careful attention to scaling will lead to more defensible characterizations of physical variability and uncertainty in model inputs, thus leading to more defensible information regarding outcomes of interest to be used in decision making, and hence more defensible decisions. This work introduces general strategies and considerations for explicitly incorporating considerations of scale into distribution development. The strategies are explained as a series of steps and then presented with an example that starts to illustrate the new statistical concepts. This work frames the problem in terms of hierarchical statistical modeling, providing important connections to current statistical approaches to formally and rigorously account for temporal and spatial scaling. The larger goal is to build a more formal and unified approach to distribution development to help teams of modelers, subject matter experts, and statisticians work together to develop distributions and justify the choices made in the process, ultimately leading to more informed decision-making. Without this rigor, statistical distributions are not specified correctly and can have unexpected consequences for modeling and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Decoupling of heat generated from ejected and non-ejected contents of 18650-format lithium-ion cells using statistical methods

Effective thermal management systems, designed to handle the impacts of thermal runaway (TR) and to prevent cell-to-cell propagation, are key to safe operation of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery assemblies. Critical factors for optimizing these systems include the total energy released during a single cell TR event and the fraction of the total energy that is released through the cell casing versus through the ejecta material. A unique fractional thermal runaway calorimeter (FTRC), designed to characterize said critical factors, was utilized to examine the TR behavior of 18650-format Li-ion cells representing a variety of manufacturers, chemistries, capacities, and safety features. Primarily, the impacts of bottom vent (BV) safety features, varied cell casing thickness, and Dreamweaver cellulose based separators were assessed for select cell types. A subset of cells also had an imbedded internal short circuiting (ISC) device to allow examination of TR behavior initiated at lower temperatures (i.e. closer to field failure conditions). The impact of bottom rupture on TR behavior was also examined for experiments that resulted in this non-standard failure mechanism. Statistical analysis of the results for each cell configuration reveals that a lognormal distribution effectively characterizes the variation of total TR energy release. Typically 20%-30% of the total energy yield is released through the cell casing with the remainder through the ejecta material. Higher energy cells tend to exhibit more violent ejections and less predictable TR events. Inclusion of a BV feature reduces the overall severity of the TR event and can increase the predictability. Results also suggest that the magnitude of the TR event may not be directly proportional to the stored electrical energy, but rather has additional dependence on other design and failure mode factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗