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At least 73 records · Page 4

Stochastic model for fatigue crack size and cost effective design decisions

This paper describes a methodology for making cost effective fatigue design decisions. The methodology is based on a probabilistic model for the stochastic process of fatigue crack growth with time. The development of a particular model for the stochastic process is also discussed in the paper. The model is based on the assumption of continuous time and discrete space of crack lengths. Statistical decision theory and the developed probabilistic model are used to develop the procedure for making fatigue design decisions on the basis of minimum expected cost or risk function and reliability bounds. Selections of initial flaw size distribution, NDT, repair threshold crack lengths, and inspection intervals are discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗

Radiation Environment on Mir Orbital Station During Solar Minimum

Space radiation poses a significant risk for the stay and rotation cycle of astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS is in the same orbit as the Mir orbital station and as such, data acquired onboard the Mir station is of direct applicability to the ISS astronaut. During the seven NASA-Mir missions, data were acquired with a variety of both passive and active detectors, including measurements of astronaut doses. This paper describes these measurements and comparisons with measurements carried out by other groups. It is shown that trapped protons absorbed can be very well described by quadratic equation in In(p), where p is the atmospheric density. Similarly, the galactic cosmic ray absorbed dose is nearly exponentially related to the deceleration potential. The average radiation quality factor with the ICRP-60 definition is about 2.44. Using the measured quality factor, absorbed crew doses, and estimates of neutron dose equivalent, leads to crew stay times as short as 9 months during a deep solar minimum. The data are compared with in vivo dose estimates using chromosome aberrations (simple translocations and total exchange) on same astronauts.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

The development and flight test evaluation of an integrated propulsion control system for the HiMAT research airplane

The Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology airplane is a .44-scale version of an advanced fighter design. It is remotely piloted from a ground cockpit and is powered by a J85-GE-21 turbojet engine. The engine is electronically controlled by a digital computer onboard the airplane to operate at selected engine operation modes. The HiMAT design and development philosophy emphasized high-risk, low-cost and minimum testing, and also required that no single failure would cause loss of the vehicle. This philosophy generated unique requirements for design, computer simulation methods, specialized test techniques, and support systems which are discussed in this paper.

Baer-Riedhart, J. L.↗

NASA Fastener Procurement, Receiving Inspection, and Storage Practices for NASA Mission Hardware

This document establishes minimum requirements for supply chain risk management, procurement, receiving inspection, testing, traceability management, and storage practices for fasteners used in NASA mission hardware. This document does not contain fastener requirements pertaining to design or design analysis; design and design analysis requirements are contained in NASA-STD-5020, Requirements for Threaded Fastening Systems in Spaceflight Hardware.

Safety and Mission Assurance↗

Creating a Voyager Thermal Model 39 Years Into the Flight Mission, Along with Model Correlation and Application

After 39 years of continuous operation in space, the output of the Voyager 1 & 2 spacecraft RTG power systems has decreased to the point where managing the power margin and maintaining thermal control has become increasingly difficult. As the total power dissipation in the bus has decreased, propellant line temperatures and margin above minimum AFTs have decreased, creating risk of the hydrazine freezing (at 1.6°C). This is further complicated by the lack of existing thermal models that can be used to assess propellant tank and line temperatures. In 2014, an effort was begun to create a Voyager spacecraft thermal model for that purpose.A steady-state Thermal Desktop model has been created from scratch over the past two years. The initial thermal model development was started by Applied Sciences Laboratory (ASL) under contract to JPL. The effort relied primarily on archived manufacturing drawings, limited documentation, interviews of senior engineers who worked on the Voyager design and implementation, and the experience of the Voyager Flight Operations team.Data from the Voyager System Thermal Vacuum tests is no longer available, making it necessary to correlate the model to more recent flight data and small in-flight tests. Correlation was achieved to within ±5°C for a hot case and a cold case (both data sets from 2014). However, the flight system has very few temperature sensors directly on propellant lines. So the task remains to determine how best to use the model, in conjunction with flight data, to make sure the Voyagers can continue to fly successfully. How does one go about creating a thermal model for a spacecraft that is already launched, has limited existing mechanical description files, no thermal model in order to do a maneuver that was never planned when the spacecraft was designed?

Ledeboer, William C.↗

Promoting the regulatory acceptance of combined ion and neutron irradiation for material degradation in nuclear reactors

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program within the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy has developed its current recommendation for promoting the use of combined ion irradiation and neutron irradiation for the accelerated qualification of materials to be deployed in nuclear reactors. This plan is intended to provide a collaborative path forward that can be adopted by academia, national laboratories, and industry, and has been developed with input from the regulatory research arm of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). To deploy new materials or materials manufactured with new technologies, such as additive manufacturing, materials must be evaluated for reactor-induced degradation from the combination of harsh temperatures, corrosive environments, and radiation fields. However, rapid deployment of materials necessitates accelerated testing methods rather than relying on years of neutron irradiation in a material test reactor. Ion irradiation has demonstrated success in reproducing material microstructure and select property evolution resulting from neutron irradiation with three to four orders of magnitude reduction in time and cost, making it an ideal candidate for accelerated irradiation testing. This presentation provides context governing both the scientific and regulatory aspects of the proposed goal. The discussion is aimed at a broad audience including researchers from industry, national laboratories, and academia. The recommended path forward is presented as a conceptual framework of specific steps. In brief, the strategy entails developing an integrated ion and neutron irradiation test plan for the material property of interest based on the fundamental tenet of the linkage of microstructure and properties in materials. Physics-based modeling interprets ion irradiation data and predicts neutron irradiation microstructure and properties with uncertainty bounds. The first round of testing is sufficient for an initial licensing application using a risk-informed approach, while a minimum required neutron irradiation test plan reduces cost and time requirements. A surveillance program with witness specimens in-reactor provides additional data over time to improve model predictions to higher damage levels and further reduce uncertainty bounds, which can be used for license extensions or longer lifetimes in new license applications.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗

EHS Health Assessment & Health Action Plan Report (CY 2020)

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Employee Health Services (EHS) program believes that good health is essential to getting the most out of life, which is why we offer a variety of worksite wellness programs that put employees in control of their own health. These programs are based on current research and strategies that are proven to minimize risk and decrease the impact of illness through early detection and treatment. Services includes Health Assessments, the Virgin Pulse (VP) online wellness platform, and Health Action Plans (HAP) which include one-on-one education, organizational health initiatives, a video library, an events calendar, onsite fitness facilities, and group fitness classes. Participation in these programs help employees and their spouses earn funding for their Health Reimbursement Accounts (HRAs). The EHS Health Action Plan (HAP) initiative targets the key health risks identified through the 8-15-80 model by engaging employees to change their own healthcare story. EHS identified the most prevalent of the health risks amongst our population through Health Risk Assessment (HRA) and used that data to build Health Action Plans (HAPs). The 2020 Health Action Plans addressed improving upon inadequate sleep, lack of energy, stress, weight, physical inactivity, cardiometabolic issues (hypertension, high cholesterol, diabetes), low back pain, allergies, asthma, digestive health, tobacco use, and living well to maintaining low risk for those individuals who do not have a chronic condition to manage. These plans connect employees with our onsite registered dietitians, fitness professionals, health coaches, physical therapists, and physicians as appropriate. In addition to addressing the physical aspects of health, the plans also emphasized pre/post-assessments to encourage building behavioral and emotional skills that promote health and facilitate lifestyle changes over a minimum of three months. Just one risk reduction or behavior change can make an impact on the health of the participant’s Division as well as Sandia’s overall risk levels and ultimately its healthcare costs. Sandia employees achieved an Overall Wellness Score of 69 based on the WellSource Health Assessment (the same as last year). A score of 70-100 is considered “Doing Well”, and a score of 40-69 is in the “Caution” category. Overall in CY 2019, Sandia saw a 34% participation rate in Health Action Plan (HAP) programs (up from 33% in CY 2019) with an 89% completion rate (4% lower than CY 2019). Overall, 5,039 (347 more than CY 2019) individuals participated in 8,329 HAPs, which is 1,005 more than the last calendar year (7,324).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HYPERSAMP

Hypergeometric Attribute Sampling System Based on Risk and Fraction Defective (HYPERSAMP) computer program demonstrates attribute sampling system developed to determine minimum sample size required for any preselected value for consumer's risk and fraction of nonconforming units. Used in place of MIL-STD-105E sampling plans when minimum sample size desirable, such as when tests are destructive or expensive. Written for IBM PC-compatible computers.

Desalvo, Louis J.↗

Distributed Solar Quality and Safety in India: Key Challenges and Potential Solutions

The quality and safety of solar systems and their installation has become a concern for investors, regulators, consumers, and Discoms in India. The push for low prices and lack of quality standards are driving project developers to install low quality products, with poor system design and execution on-site. Existing literature and stakeholder interviews point to the rampant use of low quality, sub-standard solar products in India. These products deliver less energy than expected, or have high detrition rates, or have lower product life–all of which are serious issues for developers whose return on investment depend on the amount of power generation from these solar systems for the expected life of the project. Equipment which does not conform to the minimum quality standards also creates safety risks for the distribution network. Performance and safety concerns lower investor and consumer confidence in solar products with the potential to threaten market development. This report formulates a set of recommendations to concerned authorities in India to improve the quality and safety of rooftop solar systems. Primary and secondary sources are employed to understand the current solar quality and safety scenario in India to provide the basis for future recommendations. An overview of international experiences and lessons learned on solar quality and safety issues is also conducted to understand potential solutions for India.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analyses of flight model spacecraft performance during thermal-vacuum tests.

Malfunction data from the thermal-vacuum tests of 39 flight-model spacecraft have been analyzed. These data are compared to the data listed in the 1968 Technical Note, NASA TN D-4908, 'Time Required for an Adequate Thermal-Vacuum Test of Flight Model Spacecraft', by A. R. Timmins. The present analyses include the relationship of malfunctions to time and temperature of the test, malfunction rates, effect of retest data, and the probability of a malfunction in each of four thermal-vacuum environments. Data are presented that relate a thermal-vacuum test profile to the risk involved using that profile. The minimum thermal-vacuum test profile is verified, and no change is recommended for the present thermal-vacuum test profile for flight model spacecraft.

Timmins, A. R.↗

Existence of a Nonzero Worst‐Case ACH for Short‐Term Exposure in Ventilated Indoor Spaces

A well‐ventilated room is essential to reduce the risk of airborne transmission. As such, the scientific community sets minimum limits on ventilation with the idea that increased ventilation reduces pathogen concentration and thus reduces the risk of transmission. In contrast, the upper limit on ventilation is usually determined by human comfort and the need to reduce energy consumption. While average pathogen concentration decreases with increased ventilation, local concentration depends on multiple factors and may not follow the same trend, especially within short exposure times over large separation distances. Here, we show through experiments and high‐fidelity simulations the existence of a worst‐case ventilation where local pathogen concentration increases near the receiving host. This occurs during the type of meetings that were recommended during the pandemic (and in some cases solely authorized) with reduced occupancy adhering to social distancing and short exposure times below 20 minutes. We maintain that for cases of high occupancy and long exposure time, increased ventilation remains necessary.

Construction & Building Technology↗

Amphiphilic Block Copolymers for Flocculation and Hydrophobization of Legacy Waste Suspensions in Flotation Driven Dewatering Operations - 20162

Flotation has been effectively demonstrated as a low footprint, high efficiency separation process when utilising simple anionic surface modifying agents such as sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS). These agents increase hydrophobicity to remove suspended cationic surface charged particulates such as Mg(OH){sub 2} from waste suspensions similar to those at British nuclear fuel management sites- where corrosion processes have degraded fuel cladding. The technology is advantageous as it could effectively be retrofitted into existing waste management facilities at nuclear waste management sites such Sellafield and Hanford as the simplicity (no moving parts) and size of this technology coupled with low cost of construction could be rapidly deployed to aid in risk and hazard reduction decommissioning operations with minimum impact to secondary waste generation. Previously, sodium dodecyl sulphate has been deployed as a collector agent to increase the hydrophobicity of Mg(OH){sub 2} suspended particles, achieving a maximum particulate extraction percentage of 93%. To achieve further particulate extraction, flotation performance has been determined to be a function of the hydrodynamic limitations extracting fine material (>20 μm). Fine particulates have been shown in the minerals industry to have an inability to overcome slipstreams created from rising bubbles in flotation cells, likely due to the low mass and thus momentum of the colloidal material, preventing interaction between the hydrophobized particles and air-water interfaces (bubbles). To combat this mass transfer resistance poly(acrylic acid)-block-poly(n-butyl acrylate) amphiphilic diblock copolymers were synthesised via reversible addition-fragmentation chain-transfer (RAFT) polymerisation. The anticipated mode of action of these polymers involves the hydrophilic poly(acrylic acid) block polymer acting as a flocculation agent to increase the mass of the aggregates, and the hydrophobic poly(n-butyl acrylate) modifies the hydrophobicity of the resulting flocs. The concentration of this polymer (termed a macro-collector) was varied and the change in particle size distribution of the particulate suspension was analysed using static light scattering. The flotation performance was then characterised by several methods including percentage particulate recovery, volume reduction factor and residual bulk particulate concentration. This was then benchmarked against the traditional surfactant collector agent SDS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Post-flight Analysis of the Argon Filled Ion Chamber

Atmospheric ionizing radiation is a complex mixture of primary galactic and solar cosmic rays and a multitude of secondary particles produced in collision with air nuclei. The first series of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) measurement flights on the NASA research aircraft ER-2 took place in June 1997. The ER-2 flight package consisted of fifteen instruments from six countries and were chosen to provide varying sensitivity to specific components. These AIR ER-2 flight measurements are to characterize the AIR environment during solar minimum to allow the continued development of environmental models of this complex mixture of ionizing radiation. This will enable scientists to study the ionizing radiation health hazard associated with the high-altitude operation of a commercial supersonic transport and to allow estimates of single event upsets for advanced avionics systems design. The argon filled ion chamber representing about 40 percent of the contributions to radiation risks are analyzed herein and model discrepancies for solar minimum environment are on the order of 5 percent and less. Other biologically significant components remain to be analyzed.

Tai, H.↗

NASA Lunar Lander Reference Design

With increased emphasis on lunar exploration and scientific investigation, there is a desire to deliver a wide variety of payloads to the lunar surface. Many of these payloads will require the use of surface mobility capability such as a rover. NASA has combined spacecraft and subsystem engineers from across the Agency to develop a ‘pallet’ lander design intended to deliver and easily deploy a medium-sized payload (~300 kg) to the polar regions of the Moon. The lander provides power to the payload from transit soon after lunar landing. The lander is not intended to survive the lunar night. The design of the lander was based on a minimum set of level 1 requirements where traditional risk, mass, and performance trade parameters were weighed lower than cost. In other words, the team did not sacrifice ‘good enough’ for ‘better’ or ‘best.’ As a NASA class D spacecraft (as defined in NPR 8705.4, Risk Classification for NASA Payloads, the lander employs single-string (i.e., zero-fault-tolerant) systems as a baseline. The design utilizes existing technologies and components where possible, though some enhancements have been targeted in areas such as precision autonomous landing and low-cost structural design/fabrication. It is important to note that these and other derived technologies are extensible to other lander designs and missions. This TP describes the requirements and approaches upon which the lander design is based; discusses key design decisions, analyses, and trades used to derive the design; provides a snapshot of each major subsystem; and identifies open items, issues, and challenges for which work is continuing.

L D Kennedy↗