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DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the accuracy of the Eddington approximation for radiative transfer in the microwave frequencies

The paper examines how well an Eddington approximation can reproduce brightness temperatures obtained from a more complete, N-stream discrete ordinate solution in the microwave regime. Radiation propagation through a plane parallel medium is considered. Although model discrepancies are complicated functions of the cloud constituents, the differences between an eight-stream discrete ordinate solution and an analytical Eddington solution were found to be generally small, ranging from 0 to 6 K when only one uniform layer of hydrometeors was considered. When realistic multilayered cloud hydrometeor profiles were used, the differences between these two models never exceeded 3 K over the entire range of microwave frequencies considered (6.6-183 GHz). The models agreed to within 0.2 K in the absence of scattering constituents.

Kummerow, Christian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying Changes in the Arctic Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effects

The shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is important on the Arctic surface radiation budget and the major source of inter-model spread in predictions of Arctic climate. To better understand the individual contributions of various radiative processes to changes in SWCRE, the paper presents the use of the extended APRP (Atmospheric Radiative Perturbation Potential) method. This involves adding the absorptivity for the upward beam and considering differences in reflectivity between upward and downward beams, as well as analyzing the cloud masking effect resulting from changes in surface albedo in more detail. Using data from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models, the study decomposes the SWCRE over the Arctic surface and analyzes inter-model differences in quadrupled CO2 simulations. The study takes into account the fact that the response of SWCRE to Arctic warming is influenced by changes in surface albedo, cloud amount, and cloud microphysics. Results show that in the sunlight season, the reduction in surface albedo associated with sea ice loss is directly linked to strong negative SWCRE, which explains the considerable model discrepancy. Arctic clouds can hinder the positive surface albedo feedback by changing the albedo in two ways: (1) decreasing incoming shortwave radiation due to cloud reflection and (2) by decreasing the shortwave reaching the surface after being reflected by clouds. In addition, increased (decreased) cloud amount and cloud liquid water are shown to be less (more) incoming shortwave fluxes at the surface, but not dominating factors to the Arctic surface radiation budget and its inter-model variation. Overall, the extended APRP method offers a useful tool for analyzing the complex interactions between clouds and radiative process, reasonably decomposes the individual SWCRE responses at the Arctic surface, and emphasizes that considering not only the cloud amount or its properties, but also surface albedo change is critical for the prediction of SWCRE on the Arctic surface.

Arctic cloud↗

DOE OSTI2019

Managing uncertainty in data-driven simulation-based optimization

Optimization using data from complex simulations has become an attractive decision-making option, due to ability to embed high-fidelity, non-linear understanding of processes within the search for optimal values. Due to lack of tractable algebraic equations, the link between simulations and optimization is oftentimes a surrogate metamodel. However, several forms of uncertainty exist within the cycle that links simulation data, to metamodels, to optimization. Uncertainty may originate from parameters of the simulation, or the form and fitted parameters of the metamodel. This paper reviews different literatures that are relevant to surrogate-based optimization and proposes different strategies for handling uncertainty, by combining machine learning with stochastic programming, robust optimization, and discrepancy modeling. We show that incorporating uncertainty management within simulation-based optimization leads to more robust solutions, which protect the decision-maker from infeasible solutions. Here, we present the results of our proposed approaches through a case study for direct-air capture through temperature swing adsorption.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of Intense Arctic Storm in Accelerating Summer Sea Ice Melt: An In Situ Observational Study

Abstract Intense storms have been more frequently observed in the Arctic during recent years, in coincidence with extreme sea ice loss events. However, it is still not fully understood how storms drive such events due to deficient observations and modeling discrepancies. Here we address this problem by analyzing in situ observations acquired during an Arctic expedition, which uniquely captured an intense storm in summer 2016. The result shows a pronounced acceleration of sea ice loss during the storm process. Diagnostic analysis indicates a net energy loss at the ice surface, not supporting the accelerated melting. Although the open water surface gained net heat energy, it was insufficient to increase the mixed‐layer temperature to the observed values. Dynamic analysis suggests that storm‐driven increase in ocean mixing and upward Ekman pumping of the Pacific‐origin warm water tremendously increased oceanic heat flux. The thermal advection by the Ekman pumping led to a warmed mixed layer by 0.05°C–0.12°C and, in consequence, an increased basal sea ice melt rate by 0.1–1.7 cm day −1 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Angular distribution of neutron production by proton and carbon-ion therapeutic beams

Carbon-ion beams are increasingly used in the clinical practice for external radiotherapy treatments of deep-seated tumors. At therapeutic energies, carbon ions yield significant secondary products, including neutrons, which may be of concern for the radiation protection of the patient and personnel. We simulated the neutron yield produced by proton and carbon-ion pencil beams impinging on a clinical phantom at three different angles: 15°, 45° and 90°, with respect to the beam axis. We validated the simulated results using the measured response of organic scintillation detectors. We compared the results obtained with FLUKA 2011.2 and MCNPX 2.7.0 based on three different physics models: Bertini, Isabel, and CEM. Over the different ions, energies, and angles, the FLUKA simulation results agree better with the measured data, compared to the MCNPX results. Simulations of carbon ions at low angles exhibit both the highest deviation from measured data and inter-model discrepancy, which is probably due to the different treatment of the pre-equilibrium stage. The reported neutron yield results could help in the comparison of carbon-ion and proton treatments in terms of secondary neutron production for radiation protection applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lepton-nucleus cross section measurements for DUNE with the LDMX detector

We point out that the LDMX (Light Dark Matter eXperiment) detector design, conceived to search for sub-GeV dark matter, will also have very advantageous characteristics to pursue electron-nucleus scattering measurements of direct relevance to the neutrino program at DUNE and elsewhere. These characteristics include a 4-GeV electron beam, a precision tracker, electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters with near 2 π azimuthal acceptance from the forward beam axis out to ~ 40 ° angle, and low reconstruction energy threshold. LDMX thus could provide (semi)exclusive cross section measurements, with detailed information about final-state electrons, pions, protons, and neutrons. We compare the predictions of two widely used neutrino generators ( genie , g i buu ) in the LDMX region of acceptance to illustrate the large modeling discrepancies in electron-nucleus interactions at DUNE-like kinematics. We argue that discriminating between these predictions is well within the capabilities of the LDMX detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Rapid Compression Machine Study of 2-Phenylethanol Autoignition at Low-To-Intermediate Temperatures

To meet the increasing anti-knocking quality demand of boosted spark-ignition engines, fuel additives are considered an effective approach to tailor fuel properties for satisfying the performance requirements. Thus, screening/developing bio-derived fuel additives that are best-suited for advanced spark-ignition engines has become a significant task. 2-Phenylethanol (2-PE) is an attractive candidate that features high research octane number, high octane sensitivity, low vapor pressure, and high energy density. Recognizing that the low temperature autoignition chemistry of 2-PE is not well understood and the need for fundamental experimental data at engine-relevant conditions, rapid compression machine (RCM) experiments are therefore conducted herein to measure ignition delay times (IDTs) of 2-PE in air over a wide range of conditions to fill this fundamental void. These newly acquired IDT data at low-to-intermediated temperatures, equivalence ratios of 0.35–1.5, and compressed pressures of 10–40 bar are then used to validate the 2-PE model developed by Shankar et al. (2017). It is found that this literature model greatly overpredicts the current RCM data. The comparison of experimental and simulated results also provides insights into 2-PE autoignition behaviors at varying conditions. Further chemical kinetic analyses demonstrate that the absence of the O2-addition pathway of β-R. radical in the 2-PE model of Shankar et al. (2017) could account for the model discrepancies observed at low-to-intermediated temperatures.

Fang, Ruozhou (ORCID:0000000348315100)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

NASA NTRS1977

Arc heater code validation tests of heat shield materials

Results are reported for tests of candidate heat-shield materials for outer-planet entry probes, which were conducted in two different arc-heater facilities at heating rates below those predicted for entry. One facility supplied a combined radiative-convective heating environment in air while the other provided a hydrogen/helium environment for convective heating only. Both 'infinite-slab' and 'finite-slab' models consisting of various carbon phenolic (CP) and fused silica (FS) materials were tested. The test results obtained are expressed in terms of ablation rates and surface as well as in-depth temperature variations with time for the air environment and in terms of normalized ablation rate as a function of temperature for the H/He environment. The measured values are compared with calculations based on a charring material thermal response and ablation code. For the CP models, good agreement between predicted and measured mass-loss rates is noted, surface temperatures in air are predicted within 18%, and in-depth temperature predictions are shown to be conservative in comparison with measured values. For the FS models, discrepancies are found between the predicted and measured mass-loss rates and surface temperatures.

Kesselring, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Investigation of Passive Atmospheric Sounding Using Millimeter- and Submillimeter- Wavelength Channels

This report summarizes progress made during the period from July 1, 1994 through June 30, 1996 on the development of satellite-based observational techniques for high resolution imaging of precipitation and sounding of atmospheric ice and water vapor using passive microwave radiometers in the millimeter (MMW)- and submillimeter (SMMW)-wavelength. This is being achieved by radiative transfer modeling a millimeter and submillimeter wave frequencies and by the development and operation of an airborne millimeter wave imaging radiometer (MIR). The MIR has been used in both airborne and ground-based experiments. Its primary application is to provide calibrated radiometric imagery to verify MMW and SMMW radiative transfer models in clear air, cloud, and precipitation and to develop retrieval techniques using MMW and SMMW channels. The MIR imagery over convective storm cells has been used to illustrate the potentially useful cloud and water vapor sensing and storm-cell mapping capabilities of SMMW channels. The radiometric data has also been used to analyze radiative transfer model discrepancies caused by water vapor errors in radiosondes. The MMW and SMMW channels can be used to extend the altitude that water vapor sounding can be performed up into the lower stratosphere. Together, the use of both SMMW and MMW channels are expected to provide additional observational degrees of freedom related to cloud ice particle size.

Gasiewski, Albin J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Flow Control Analysis on the Hump Model with RANS Tools

A concerted effort is underway at NASA Langley Research Center to create a benchmark for Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) codes. both unstructured and structured, against a data set for the hump model with actuation. The hump model was tested in the NASA Langley 0.3-m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. The CFD codes used for the analyses are the FUN2D (Full Unstructured Navier-Stokes 2-Dimensional) code, the structured TLNS3D (Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes 3-Dimensional) code, and the structured CFL3D code, all developed at NASA Langley. The current investigation uses the time-accurate Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach to predict aerodynamic performance of the active flow control experimental database for the hump model. Two-dimensional computational results verified that steady blowing and suction and oscillatory suction/blowing can be used to significantly reduce the separated flow region on the model. Discrepancies do exist between the CFD results and experimental data in the region downstream of the slot with the largest differences in the oscillatory cases. Overall, the structured CFD codes exhibited similar behavior with each other for a wide range of control conditions, with the unstructured FUN2D code showing moderately different results in the separated flow region for the suction and oscillatory cases.

Viken, Sally A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Post-flight Analysis of the Argon Filled Ion Chamber

Atmospheric ionizing radiation is a complex mixture of primary galactic and solar cosmic rays and a multitude of secondary particles produced in collision with air nuclei. The first series of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) measurement flights on the NASA research aircraft ER-2 took place in June 1997. The ER-2 flight package consisted of fifteen instruments from six countries and were chosen to provide varying sensitivity to specific components. These AIR ER-2 flight measurements are to characterize the AIR environment during solar minimum to allow the continued development of environmental models of this complex mixture of ionizing radiation. This will enable scientists to study the ionizing radiation health hazard associated with the high-altitude operation of a commercial supersonic transport and to allow estimates of single event upsets for advanced avionics systems design. The argon filled ion chamber representing about 40 percent of the contributions to radiation risks are analyzed herein and model discrepancies for solar minimum environment are on the order of 5 percent and less. Other biologically significant components remain to be analyzed.

Tai, H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Comparison of Meteoroid Flux Models for Near Earth Space

Over the last decade several new models for the sporadic interplanetary meteoroid flux have been developed. These include the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM), the Divine-Staubach model and the Interplanetary Meteoroid Engineering Model (IMEM). They typically cover mass ranges from 10-12 g (or lower) to 1 g and are applicable for model specific sun distance ranges between 0.2 A.U. and 10 A.U. Near 1 A.U. averaged fluxes (over direction and velocities) for all these models are tuned to the well established interplanetary model by Gr?n et. al. However, in many respects these models differ considerably. Examples are the velocity and directional distributions and the assumed meteoroid sources. In this paper flux predictions by the various models to Earth orbiting spacecraft are compared. Main differences are presented and analysed. The persisting differences even for near Earth space can be seen as surprising in view of the numerous ground based (optical, radar) and in-situ (captured IDPs, in-situ detectors and analysis of retrieved hardware) measurements and simulations. Remaining uncertainties and potential additional studies to overcome the existing model discrepancies are discussed.

Drolshagen, G.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2017

Satellite Constellation Orbit Design to Enable a Space-Based Radio Interferometer

Two different design methods for a networked constellation of N small satellites are presented. In the first method, the (linear) Clohessy-Wilthsire equations are used as an initial design tool, followed by conversion to a two-body model. Discrepancies between the linear and nonlinear solutions are minimized in the conversion process. The second method utilizes invariant manifold theory, by perturbing a reference trajectory in different directions along the center eigenvectors. Both methods require 5N parameters to fully define a constellation. In a relative, rotating frame of the reference path, the spacecraft appear as periodic ellipses of varying sizes. Deployment, reconfiguration using propulsive maneuvers, and station keeping costs for an example mission scenario are addressed.

Chien, Steve A.↗