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DOE OSTI2023

Addressing deep array effects and impacts to wake steering with the cumulative-curl wake model

Abstract. Wind farm design and analysis heavily rely on computationally efficient engineering models that are evaluated many times to find an optimal solution. A recent article compared the state-of-the-art Gauss-curl hybrid (GCH) model to historical data of three offshore wind farms. Two points of model discrepancy were identified therein: poor wake predictions for turbines experiencing a lot of wakes and wake interactions between two turbines over long distances. The present article addresses those two concerns and presents the cumulative-curl (CC) model. Comparison of the CC model to high-fidelity simulation data and historical data of three offshore wind farms confirms the improved accuracy of the CC model over the GCH model in situations with large wake losses and wake recovery over large inter-turbine distances. Additionally, the CC model performs comparably to the GCH model for single- and fewer-turbine wake interactions, which were already accurately modeled. Lastly, the CC model has been implemented in a vectorized form, greatly reducing the computation time for many wind conditions. The CC model now enables reliable simulation studies for both small and large offshore wind farms at a low computational cost, thereby making it an ideal candidate for wake-steering optimization and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Improvements to PHISICS/RELAP5-3D{sup C} Capabilities for Simulating HTGRs

Accurate, high-resolution full core simulations of prismatic high temperature reactors for burnup and transient analysis remain a challenge. The cores are geometrically large, but some features are quite small (tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) particles, burnable poison pellets). The treatment of both neutron scattering in graphite and resonance capture are complex and not adequately captured using the methods traditionally used in High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR) and commonly used in Light Water Reactors (LWR). For transient analysis, temperature feedback is a function of the TRISO fuel form, but full core models cannot resolve phenomena at this scale without averaging over space and energy. For burnup calculations, a second level of heterogeneity must be resolved to capture the local effects of fuel and burnable poisons, while accurately propagating their effects through and between blocks. The HTGR Methods and Simulation group has been utilizing the INL-developed PHISICS/RELAP5-3D{sup C} (P/R), code suite for participation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) Benchmark, funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE) under the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) program. The MHTGR-350 benchmark consists of several lattice, steady-state and transient exercises, and the P/R code has been successfully applied to most of the cases defined. In addition to this code-to-code verification activity, it is planned that P/R will be validated using data from several Loss of Forced Cooling (LOFC) tests performed at the High Temperature Test Reactor (HTTR) in a joint effort with Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) under the Civil Nuclear Energy Working Group (CNWG) project. These verification and validation simulations will identify code and model discrepancies, sensitivities, and establish the current state-of-the-art in HTGR simulation. The Department of Astronautical, Electrical and Energy Engineering (DIAEE), 'Sapienza' University has been involved in the development of P/R since 2014 through various graduate and PhD student projects. In the framework of this collaboration the P/R optimization for application on the OECD MHTGR-350 and HTTR models will be carried out.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

Abstract Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterized using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. As a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Observing Convective Aggregation

Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Managing uncertainty in data-driven simulation-based optimization

Optimization using data from complex simulations has become an attractive decision-making option, due to ability to embed high-fidelity, non-linear understanding of processes within the search for optimal values. Due to lack of tractable algebraic equations, the link between simulations and optimization is oftentimes a surrogate metamodel. However, several forms of uncertainty exist within the cycle that links simulation data, to metamodels, to optimization. Uncertainty may originate from parameters of the simulation, or the form and fitted parameters of the metamodel. This paper reviews different literatures that are relevant to surrogate-based optimization and proposes different strategies for handling uncertainty, by combining machine learning with stochastic programming, robust optimization, and discrepancy modeling. We show that incorporating uncertainty management within simulation-based optimization leads to more robust solutions, which protect the decision-maker from infeasible solutions. Here, we present the results of our proposed approaches through a case study for direct-air capture through temperature swing adsorption.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

DOE OSTI2021

Role of Intense Arctic Storm in Accelerating Summer Sea Ice Melt: An In Situ Observational Study

Abstract Intense storms have been more frequently observed in the Arctic during recent years, in coincidence with extreme sea ice loss events. However, it is still not fully understood how storms drive such events due to deficient observations and modeling discrepancies. Here we address this problem by analyzing in situ observations acquired during an Arctic expedition, which uniquely captured an intense storm in summer 2016. The result shows a pronounced acceleration of sea ice loss during the storm process. Diagnostic analysis indicates a net energy loss at the ice surface, not supporting the accelerated melting. Although the open water surface gained net heat energy, it was insufficient to increase the mixed‐layer temperature to the observed values. Dynamic analysis suggests that storm‐driven increase in ocean mixing and upward Ekman pumping of the Pacific‐origin warm water tremendously increased oceanic heat flux. The thermal advection by the Ekman pumping led to a warmed mixed layer by 0.05°C–0.12°C and, in consequence, an increased basal sea ice melt rate by 0.1–1.7 cm day −1 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Angular distribution of neutron production by proton and carbon-ion therapeutic beams

Carbon-ion beams are increasingly used in the clinical practice for external radiotherapy treatments of deep-seated tumors. At therapeutic energies, carbon ions yield significant secondary products, including neutrons, which may be of concern for the radiation protection of the patient and personnel. We simulated the neutron yield produced by proton and carbon-ion pencil beams impinging on a clinical phantom at three different angles: 15°, 45° and 90°, with respect to the beam axis. We validated the simulated results using the measured response of organic scintillation detectors. We compared the results obtained with FLUKA 2011.2 and MCNPX 2.7.0 based on three different physics models: Bertini, Isabel, and CEM. Over the different ions, energies, and angles, the FLUKA simulation results agree better with the measured data, compared to the MCNPX results. Simulations of carbon ions at low angles exhibit both the highest deviation from measured data and inter-model discrepancy, which is probably due to the different treatment of the pre-equilibrium stage. The reported neutron yield results could help in the comparison of carbon-ion and proton treatments in terms of secondary neutron production for radiation protection applications.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lepton-nucleus cross section measurements for DUNE with the LDMX detector

We point out that the LDMX (Light Dark Matter eXperiment) detector design, conceived to search for sub-GeV dark matter, will also have very advantageous characteristics to pursue electron-nucleus scattering measurements of direct relevance to the neutrino program at DUNE and elsewhere. These characteristics include a 4-GeV electron beam, a precision tracker, electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters with near 2 π azimuthal acceptance from the forward beam axis out to ~ 40 ° angle, and low reconstruction energy threshold. LDMX thus could provide (semi)exclusive cross section measurements, with detailed information about final-state electrons, pions, protons, and neutrons. We compare the predictions of two widely used neutrino generators ( genie , g i buu ) in the LDMX region of acceptance to illustrate the large modeling discrepancies in electron-nucleus interactions at DUNE-like kinematics. We argue that discriminating between these predictions is well within the capabilities of the LDMX detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Rapid Compression Machine Study of 2-Phenylethanol Autoignition at Low-To-Intermediate Temperatures

To meet the increasing anti-knocking quality demand of boosted spark-ignition engines, fuel additives are considered an effective approach to tailor fuel properties for satisfying the performance requirements. Thus, screening/developing bio-derived fuel additives that are best-suited for advanced spark-ignition engines has become a significant task. 2-Phenylethanol (2-PE) is an attractive candidate that features high research octane number, high octane sensitivity, low vapor pressure, and high energy density. Recognizing that the low temperature autoignition chemistry of 2-PE is not well understood and the need for fundamental experimental data at engine-relevant conditions, rapid compression machine (RCM) experiments are therefore conducted herein to measure ignition delay times (IDTs) of 2-PE in air over a wide range of conditions to fill this fundamental void. These newly acquired IDT data at low-to-intermediated temperatures, equivalence ratios of 0.35–1.5, and compressed pressures of 10–40 bar are then used to validate the 2-PE model developed by Shankar et al. (2017). It is found that this literature model greatly overpredicts the current RCM data. The comparison of experimental and simulated results also provides insights into 2-PE autoignition behaviors at varying conditions. Further chemical kinetic analyses demonstrate that the absence of the O2-addition pathway of β-R. radical in the 2-PE model of Shankar et al. (2017) could account for the model discrepancies observed at low-to-intermediated temperatures.

Fang, Ruozhou (ORCID:0000000348315100)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the chemistry and transport impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in tropical winds perturbs stratospheric ozone throughout much of the atmosphere via changes in transport of ozone and other trace gases, as well as via temperature changes, both of which alter ozone chemistry. Attributing these causes of QBO–ozone variability may provide insights into model-to-model differences that contribute to ozone simulation. Here we develop a novel metric of steady-state ozone (SSO) to separate these effects: SSO calculates the local steady-state response of ozone due to the changes in temperature, chemical species, and overhead ozone column; the response due to circulation change is presumed when SSO shows no response. It is applied to the nudged Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) with interactive ozone chemistry to demonstrate its validity. The E3SMv2 simulations nudged to reanalysis data produced reasonable wind and ozone patterns, especially in the tropics. Consistent with previous studies, we find clear demarcations with pressure. Ozone perturbations in the upper stratosphere (<6 hPa) are predicted by temperature changes; those between 6 and 20 hPa are predicted by NO y changes, and those in the lower stratosphere show no temperature or NO y response and are presumably driven by circulation changes. These results are important for diagnosing model-to-model discrepancy in QBO–ozone response and enhancing the reliability of ozone projections.

Xie, Jinbo [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2017

AN INVESTIGATION OF CONSISTENT UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN A MULTIPHYSICS ENVIRONMENT

The framework for a LOCA toolkit for the U.S. light water reactors (LOTUS) is outlined. LOTUS allows for the coupling of the core design code VERA-CS with the fuel performance code FRAPCON such that uncertainties can be propagated consistently. An analysis of inherent model discrepancies, confirms that all differences are either negligible or the focus on immediate future work. Monte Carlo sampling is performed on 15 inputs for a depletion case of one fuel assembly. Both uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) are performed on the figures of merit (FOM) of minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel centerline temperature (MFCT), and gap conductance at peak power (GCPP). Pearson correlation coefficient, Sobol sensitivity indices, and the density-based, delta moment independent measure are used as SA metrics. All measures yield consistent rankings of inputs matching past work.

10CFR50.46c↗

DOE OSTI2024

Photo- and Electro-Induced Hadron Production from Nuclei at Jefferson Laboratory

Understanding many-body knockout processes is crucial for nuclear physics, particularly in photo- and electro-induced reactions. In turn, understanding two- and three-body forces, including higher-order forces, is vital for a complete understanding of atoms. We present photo-induced many-proton knockout processes, with multiplicities from 1 to 6, using 12C, CH2, and C4H9OH targets in the g9a FROST dataset. Our analysis covers photon energies from 600 to 4500 MeV, significantly expanding current world data. Comparing our experimental data to the state-of-the-art GiBUU model offers a new challenge in the model’s theoretical description of many-body processes. GiBUU reasonably describes the data at lower photon energies but struggles at higher energies and missing masses, likely due to missing processes, such as initial 3-pion photoproduction. Our results will inform future developments in describing proton knockout processes, indicating GiBUU’s overall reasonable description of many-proton knockout data up to around 2.2 GeV. We also assess various electro-induced reactions using 2D, 12C, and 40Ar targets in the RGM dataset. Our results, obtained at electron beam energies of 2, 4, and 6 GeV, are compared in detail to GENIE and GiBUU, two widely used theory models in neutrino oscillation experiments. Discrepancies between model predictions and experimental data underscore the need for refining the two theoretical models. Despite discrepancies, GiBUU provides a more accurate modelling of electro-induced reactions, especially for 40Ar - crucial for future neutrino oscillation facilities such as DUNE. Understanding the fundamental nuclear physics involved in neutrino-nuclei interactions is essential for reducing the systematic uncertainties in extracting neutrino oscillation parameters. Many-body processes significantly contribute to the background processes observed in neutrino-nuclei interactions, hence the results from both analyses are crucial for developing the theoretical framework for the underlying nuclear physics.

Williams, Rhidian↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of toroidal rotation on the resistive ballooning modes in ASDEX Upgrade tokamak

Abstract In this work, we investigate the behavior of instabilities appearing between type-I edge localized modes (ELMs), with increasing neutral beam injection (NBI) power concomitant increase in toroidal rotation, and compare it to the modeling result of the linear magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code CASTOR3D. An injection of one NBI beam, increasing toroidal rotation, results in the mode slowing down from 12 kHz to 7 kHz, and its associated radial displacement decreases from 5 mm to 3.5 mm. In addition, modes shift radially outwards towards higher q , decreasing their poloidal mode numbers. The mode velocity is measured to be close to the E × B velocity with significant uncertainties. Through a set of CASTOR3D simulations with varying profiles, resistivity has been identified as the primary contributor to the growth rates. Only a small stabilizing effect due to toroidal rotation has been observed. While experimental results show a decrease of mode frequency with rotation, the opposite trend is observed in modeling. Reasons for discrepancies between modeling and experiment are discussed. Nevertheless, a main contributor to the mode frequency has been identified to be rotation velocity. CASTOR3D classifies modes as resistive ballooning modes as they do not appear unstable in ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗