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At least 73 records · Page 4

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DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating the discovery of low-energy structure configurations: A computational approach that integrates first-principles calculations, Monte Carlo sampling, and Machine Learning

Finding Minimum Energy Configurations (MECs) is essential in fields such as physics, chemistry, and materials science, as they represent the most stable states of the systems. In particular, identifying such MECs in multi-component alloys considered candidate PFMs is key because it determines the most stable arrangement of atoms within the alloy, directly influencing its phase stability, structural integrity, and thermo-mechanical properties. However, since the search space grows exponentially with the number of atoms considered, obtaining such MECs using computationally expensive first-principles DFT calculations often results in a cumbersome task. To escape the above compromise between physical fidelity and computational efficiency, we have developed a novel physics-based data-driven approach that combines Monte Carlo sampling, first-principles DFT calculations, and Machine Learning to accelerate the discovery of MECs in multi-component alloys. More specifically, we have leveraged well-established Cluster Expansion (CE) techniques with Local Outlier Factor models to establish strategies that enhance the reliability of the CE method. In this work, we demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed approach for the particular case of a tungsten-based quaternary high-entropy alloy. However, the method is applicable to other types of alloys and enables a wide range of applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive tau-leaping methods for microscopic-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

Traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) approaches, rooted in Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm, become computationally demanding in systems with a large range of timescales. The goal of this work is to propose and study new adaptive lattice-KMC time integration strategies for spatially non-uniform systems. To that end, two novel adaptive tau-leaping methods and their corresponding time integration strategies are developed based on the idea of the “n-fold” direct KMC method. These strategies allow for the simultaneous execution of multiple reactions, advancing time by adaptively selected coarse increments. We present numerical experiments comparing the proposed methods with existing approaches in a catalytic surface kinetics application involving ammonia decomposition.

Bimolecular reactions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assay-based background projection for the Majorana Demonstrator using Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation

The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the M AJORANA D EMONSTRATOR , which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in 76 Ge to search for 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95±0.36]×10 −4 cts/(keVkgyr) from the 232 Th and 238 U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the D EMONSTRATOR . Finally, this method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the D EMONSTRATOR 's observed background and the assay results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Thermophysical Properties of Liquid Tritium: A Path Integral Monte Carlo Study

Here, we present worm-algorithm, path integral Monte Carlo simulations of bulk liquid tritium. The simulations are benchmarked against empirically known thermophysical properties of liquid deuterium and liquid tritium. Results for the pair correlation function, chemical potential, isothermal compressibility, isochoric heat capacity, and single-particle momentum distributions are reported. Given the benchmark comparisons, our predictions of liquid tritium properties are expected to be accurate to within a few percent. Our simulations unambiguously demonstrate the significance of nuclear quantum effects to the properties of liquid tritium. In particular, under saturated vapor pressure, the average molecular kinetic energy of the liquid is found to be more than 60% higher than the value expected from the classical equipartition theorem.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond curvature-driven grain growth: Insights from fully anisotropic Monte Carlo Potts simulations

Grain boundary (GB) motion away from the center of curvature, termed anti-curvature behavior, has recently been observed in 3D experiments but is not predicted by classical grain growth theory. In this study, we investigate this behavior using a novel, fully anisotropic Monte Carlo Potts (MCP) model that incorporates both misorientation and inclination dependencies of GB energy. We perform 3D grain growth simulations with isotropic and anisotropic GB energies to explore the relationship between GB velocity and curvature. Contrary to the classical relation that velocity is a product of reduced mobility and mean curvature, we observe no consistent correlation between velocity and mean curvature for individual GBs, even under isotropic conditions, though there is correlation between the average velocity and curvature for some cases. The 3D simulations exhibit frequent anti-curvature motion regardless of GB energy anisotropy including with isotropic GBs, though larger curvatures occur with anisotropic GB energy functions that promote low-energy GBs. In 2D simulations, anti-curvature behavior only occurs with the anisotropic functions that favor low-energy GBs. This difference between 2D and 3D results suggests that anti-curvature behavior results in part from the increased freedom of motion intrinsic in 3D GB networks. Furthermore, our results support recent experimental observations that demonstrate that simple curvature-driven models are insufficient for describing GB migration in polycrystals.

Anti-curvature↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficient continuous Energy-Multigroup hybrid depletion scheme using the Shift Monte Carlo code. Part I: Energy condensation sensitivity analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) codes coupled to depletion solvers are increasingly used to provide high fidelity fuel cycle modeling capabilities. Here, these coupled depletion-MC tools produce accurate results in general but can experience nonphysical spatial oscillations when time steps are large or when a system’s dominance ratio approaches unity. Two substepping techniques have been developed previously to remedy and dampen these spatial oscillations without needing to reduce step sizes. The first approach relied on higher-order techniques to account for spectral changes within steps (extrapolation and interpolation techniques). The second approach used the first order perturbation (FOP) theory to account for the change in the one-group spatial flux distribution within steps. This paper develops a hybrid depletion methodology which, in a way, combines how the flux is handled in both substepping techniques. Specifically, the multigroup (MG) MC Shift code is used to update the flux distribution within steps rather than a one-group FOP solver. A fully reflected pincell is investigated, which is not spatially dependent in the MG representation. Thus, the analysis in this paper is an initial demonstration of hybrid depletion. An upcoming companion paper will focus on how the hybrid depletion dampens spatial oscillations. The hybrid depletion approach is verified to be consistent with previous constant extrapolation depletion (CED) methods. This paper finds that the hybrid CED exhibits some error in the eigenvalue and one group constants within macro steps. To address this discrepancy, a simple interpolation scheme (CELI) is investigated. This work found that CELI sufficiently addresses the discrepancy in spectrum for macro steps up to 100 days. Overall, this work demonstrates that the hybrid depletion method can significantly reduce the number of high fidelity MC executions in a MC-coupled depletion with an acceptable eigenvalue error.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermomechanics coupling to Monte Carlo particle transport on unstructured mesh geometries using Cardinal

Geometry deformation due to thermal expansion influences neutron transport in many systems. Studying this phenomenon involves coupling models for neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and solid mechanics. To enable high fidelity modeling of these coupled physics, new capabilities were introduced in Cardinal, coupling OpenMC Monte Carlo particle transport models with MOOSE thermomechanical physics on unstructured moving-mesh geometries. In this work, we present a fully open-source capability leveraging on-the-fly mesh skinning to automatically regenerate OpenMC geometry, which allows multiphysics feedback from temperature, density, and geometry changes. The new capability is verified using an analytic benchmark slab problem, which couples S 2 neutron transport with thermal conduction, convective boundary conditions, Doppler-broadened cross sections, and nonlinear thermal expansion effects along the heated slab. Cardinal reproduces the analytic solutions for the neutron flux, heating, k eff , and temperature with demonstrated convergence in various error terms including mesh resolution and cross section temperature library spacing. For the nominal benchmark conditions and with a fine mesh, maximum relative errors for neutron flux, temperature, and heating are lower than 1%, while errors in integral quantities such as k eff and slab length are within 1 pcm and 48 µm, respectively. This work (i) presents a new numerical approach to thermomechanics coupling with OpenMC models, (ii) is the first (to our knowledge) to utilize a mechanical partial differential equation (PDE) solution to solve the (Griesheimer and Kooreman, 2022) analytic benchmark, and (iii) develops this verified capability within an open-source package.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators based on normalizing flows and dimensionality reduction techniques

Here, we study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in terms of number of random inputs and their probability distributions, which can be either known in closed form or provided through samples. We derive novel multifidelity Monte Carlo estimators which rely on a shared subspace between the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models where the parameters follow the same probability distribution, i.e., a standard Gaussian. We build the shared space employing normalizing flows to map different probability distributions into a common one, together with linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, active subspaces and autoencoders, respectively, which capture the subspaces where the models vary the most. We then compose the existing low-fidelity model with these transformations and construct modified models with an increased correlation with the high-fidelity model, which therefore yield multifidelity estimators with reduced variance. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the properties and advantages of our approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2025

OpenEdge: A collaborative, open-source, multi-purpose direct simulation Monte Carlo for plasma simulation in magnetic fusion environments

OpenEdge is a collaborative, open-source, object-oriented Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code, designed specifically for plasma simulations in magnetic fusion environments. Here, the code features include advanced structures, robust capabilities, and an effective parallelization strategy, all of which significantly enhance performance. It includes specialized modules for managing complex particle interactions, including collisions, ionization/recombination, and reflection/sputtering. Benchmarks and performance analyses have confirmed its efficiency and scalability. Versatile and adaptable, OpenEdge is applied across a broad spectrum of plasma-material interaction studies and charged particle transport in various fusion research settings.

Boundary plasma↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking Monte Carlo codes for the modelling of low-energy neutron production target reactions

The increasing adoption of accelerator-based neutron sources (ABNS) for applications including neutron capture therapy (NCT) research has highlighted the need for accurate simulation tools. Precise modelling of the neutron production target is crucial to ensure that simulated predictions of neutron beam characteristics used for subsequent beam shaping assembly design are reliable. This work presents a comprehensive benchmarking of four widely-used Monte Carlo codes - Geant4, PHITS, FLUKA (CERN), and MCNP - for modelling low-energy neutron production target reactions. Using their recommended physics models and cross-section libraries, we evaluate each code’s performance in simulating four beam-target reactions: 7 Li(p,n) 7 Be, 9 Be(p,n) 9 B, 9 Be(d,n) 10 B, and C(d,n)N. Predictions of neutron yield, angular distributions, and energy spectra are compared against available thick target experimental data. Results show varying levels of agreement between the codes depending on the reaction type, energy range, and beam characteristics. Geant4, MCNP and PHITS are the overall best performing codes for the simulation of total neutron yield and yield in the forward direction across most reactions. Across energies where experimental benchmarks exist, inter-code discrepancies in total and forward-directed yield are typically 10 to 30%, with larger deviations at near-threshold incident ion energies. PHITS provides the best overall reproduction of experimental spectra, particularly for the 9 Be(p,n) 9 B reaction. Additionally, PHITS demonstrates superior computational performance for most reactions. These findings provide valuable guidance for ABNS design, highlighting the strengths and limitations of each code for the simulation of low-energy neutron production reactions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advanced measurement techniques in quantum Monte Carlo: The permutation matrix representation approach

In a typical finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation, estimators for simple static observables such as specific heat and magnetization are known. With a great deal of system-specific manual labor, one can sometimes also derive more complicated non-local or even dynamic observable estimators. In contrast, we show that arbitrary static observables can be estimated within the permutation matrix representation (PMR) flavor for any Hamiltonian. We then generalize these results to general imaginary-time correlation functions and non-trivial integrated susceptibilities thereof. Finally, we demonstrate the practical versatility of our method by estimating various non-local, random observables for the transverse-field Ising model on a square lattice and a toy random model.

Permutation matrix representation↗

DOE OSTI2026

A lumped particle direct simulation Monte-Carlo method combined with the collisional-radiative model for simulations of non-equilibrium laser-induced plasma plumes

Collisional plasma plumes induced by laser irradiation of material targets exhibit large variations in local density as well as ionization and excitation states, making purely hydrodynamic or kinetic simulations inaccurate or infeasible. To address this challenge and capture non-equilibrium effects in laser-induced plasma plumes at arbitrary degrees of ionization, we develop a hybrid computational approach that combines the kinetic direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method with a collisional-radiative model (CRM). This ℓDSMC-CRM approach utilizes a lumped particle method to represent minor fractions of excited ions in particle-based simulations and a special coarse-graining technique for atomic spectra and photoionization rates, ensuring numerical convergence at reduced computational cost. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate spatially homogeneous relaxation as well as one- and two-dimensional expansions of plasma plumes induced by irradiation of a copper target by a nanosecond laser pulse in a vacuum or background gas. The comparison with an equilibrium model, where local Saha-Boltzmann equilibrium is enforced, shows that the non-equilibrium effects play a dominant role. The equilibrium model can fail to predict the flow structure and strongly underestimate the degree of absorption of laser radiation by the plume. The ℓDSMC-CRM approach is validated against experimental data demonstrating reasonable agreement with the experimental electron density and temperature, while the equilibrium model is found to dramatically underestimate electron density and temperature. The flexibility of the ℓDSMC-CRM approach allows for its seamless integration into existing DSMC frameworks, making it a valuable tool for high-fidelity plasma modeling in laser-material interactions, laser-based manufacturing, and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computing material volume fractions on a superimposed mesh as applied to Monte Carlo particle transport simulations

Here, we present a newly implemented ray tracing algorithm in OpenMC for efficiently computing material volume fractions on superimposed meshes in complex geometries. By firing rays along each coordinate direction through the geometry, the approach accumulates track-length data in each mesh element, thereby determining the fractional composition of each material. Scaling studies on three different models—a random tetrahedra configuration, the Frascati Neutron Generator ITER dose rate benchmark, and a stellarator design—show excellent parallel performance, with nearly linear speedup on modern multi-threaded and distributed-memory systems. An analysis of the residual error relative to high-resolution reference solutions demonstrated that under optimal conditions it decreases as 1/R, where R is the number of rays fired, making it straightforward to achieve user-prescribed accuracy. This new functionality enables practical, mesh-based approaches for detailed nuclear analyses in production Monte Carlo workflows without resorting to expensive, fully conformal or unstructured meshing.

Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2025

An international study on THM modelling of the full-scale heater experiment at Mont Terri laboratory

We present results from an international model comparison study of the Full-Scale Emplacement (FE) experiment in Opalinus Clay at the Mont Terri Laboratory, Switzerland. Based on a provided parameter set the teams decided which parameters they adopted for their models, whether they considered the excavation and the ventilation phase in addition to the heating phase and if they included technical features like the shotcrete or the EDZ. The teams were able to reproduce the measured parameters temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure. The modelled results for temperature agree very closely between the teams especially in the sensors in Opalinus Clay. All teams were able to reproduce the redistribution of water in the bentonite backfill due to heating. The evolution of the relative humidity showed similar trends with differences in the intensity of the dry out effect. To model the pore pressure evolution is more complex because it comprises the full interaction of the coupled THM processes. The spread between the pore pressure modelled by the teams was larger, with some teams overestimating the pressure increase due to heating and some teams overestimating the extent of drainage. The agreement of modelled results with measurements improves with larger distance to the heater. We conclude that the EDZ and the shotcrete potentially influence the behaviour of the rock causing higher differences closer to the heater. Further research is needed to better implement those influences into the models. Based on the calibrated models, the future evolution of temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure was predicted over the next 10 years following a change of the heat power applied in 2023 and 2024. Again, the predicted temperatures agree very closely between the teams. Most teams do not expect an increase in relative humidity during the next 10 years after the initial dry-out.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convergence of variational Monte Carlo simulation and scale-invariant pre-training

We provide theoretical convergence bounds for the variational Monte Carlo (VMC) method as applied to optimize neural network wave functions for the electronic structure problem. Here, we study both the energy minimization phase and the supervised pre-training phase that is commonly used prior to energy minimization. For the energy minimization phase, the standard algorithm is scale-invariant by design, and we provide a proof of convergence for this algorithm without modifications. The pre-training stage typically does not feature such scale-invariance. We propose using a scale-invariant loss for the pretraining phase and demonstrate empirically that it leads to faster pre-training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Monte-Carlo method for Coulomb collisions in moderately coupled plasmas

Here, we introduce a new approach for coupling cumulative and single-scattering distributions, extending Monte Carlo methods for Coulomb collisions in weakly coupled plasmas into the moderately coupled regime. Using time steps typical of cumulative-scattering methods, we show that this approach not only recovers leading-order corrections proportional to the inverse Coulomb logarithm but also solves the full Boltzmann collision integral. A key feature of the method is its simplicity: it can be integrated into cumulative-scattering methods for weakly coupled plasmas with only ~ 10 additional lines of code.

Boltzmann collision integral↗