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At least 73 records · Page 4

Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) (Field Campaign Report)

Mountains are the natural water towers of the world, effectively turning water vapor into readily available fresh water through precipitation, snowpack, and runoff. They contribute disproportionately to precipitation over land, but are under-observed, leading to large gaps in the scientific understanding of convection, extreme precipitation and weather, and interactions between atmospheric circulation, radiation, and land-surface conditions. The mountain hydrometeorology community has repeatedly called for integrated atmospheric and land observations of water and energy budgets in complex terrain that span these scales to establish benchmarks against which scale-dependent models can be further developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures

River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75 th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the spectral absorption of liquid water in melting snow with an imaging spectrometer

Melting of the snowpack is a critical parameter that drives aspects of the hydrology in regions of the earth where snow accumulates seasonally. New techniques for measurement of snow melt over regional scales offer the potential to improve monitoring and modeling of snow-driven hydrological processes. We present the results of measuring the spectral absorption of liquid water in a melting snowpack with the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS data were acquired over Mammoth Mountain, in east central California on 21 May 1994 at 18:35 UTC. The air temperature at 2926 m on Mammoth Mountain at site A was measured at 15-minute intervals during the day preceding the AVIRIS data acquisition. At this elevation, the air temperature did not drop below freezing the night of May 20 and had risen to 6 degrees Celsius by the time of the overflight on May 21. These temperature conditions support the presence of melting snow at the surface as the AVIRIS data were acquired.

Green, Robert O.↗

Measurement of the Spectral Absorption of Liquid Water in Melting Snow With an Imaging Spectrometer

Melting of the snowpack is a critical parameter that drives aspects of the hydrology in regions of the Earth where snow accumulates seasonally. New techniques for measurement of snow melt over regional scales offer the potential to improve monitoring and modeling of snow-driven hydrological processes. In this paper we present the results of measuring the spectral absorption of liquid water in a melting snowpack with the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS data were acquired over Mammoth Mountain, in east central California on 21 May 1994 at 18:35 UTC. The air temperature at 2926 m on Mammoth Mountain at site A was measured at 15-minute intervals during the day preceding the AVIRIS data acquisition. At this elevation. the air temperature did not drop below freezing the night of the May 20 and had risen to 6 degrees Celsius by the time of the overflight on May 21. These temperature conditions support the presence of melting snow at the surface as the AVIRIS data were acquired.

Green, Robert O.↗

An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3)

Abstract. Predicting future climate change over a region of complex terrain, such as the western United States (US), remains challenging due to the low resolution of global climate models (GCMs). Yet the climate extremes of recent years in this region, such as floods, wildfires, and drought, are likely to intensify further as climate warms, underscoring the need for high-quality and high-resolution predictions. Here, we present an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations over the western US from 1980–2100 at 9 km grid spacing, driven by 16 latest-generation GCMs. This dataset is titled the Western US Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3). We describe the challenges of producing WUS-D3, including GCM selection and technical issues, and we evaluate the simulations' realism by comparing historical results to temperature and precipitation observations. The future downscaled climate change signals are shaped in physically credible ways by the regional model's more realistic coastlines and topography. (1) The mean warming signals are heavily influenced by more realistic snowpack. (2) Mean precipitation changes are often consistent with wetting on the windward side of mountain complexes, as warmer, moister air masses are uplifted orographically during precipitation events. (3) There are large fractional precipitation increases on the lee side of mountain complexes, leading to potentially significant changes in water resources and ecology in these arid landscapes. (4) Increases in precipitation extremes are generally larger than in the GCMs, driven by locally intensified atmospheric updrafts tied to sharper, more realistic gradients in topography. (5) Changes in temperature extremes are different from what is expected by a shift in mean temperature and are shaped by local atmospheric dynamics and land surface feedbacks. Because of its high resolution, comprehensiveness, and representation of relevant physical processes, this dataset presents a unique opportunity to evaluate societally relevant future changes in western US climate.

Rahimi, Stefan (ORCID:0000000331884462)↗

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The sensitivity of runoff generation to spatial snowpack uniformity in an alpine watershed: Green Lakes Valley, Niwot Ridge Long-Term Ecological Research station

Seasonal water storage in high-elevation alpine catchments are critical sources of water for mountainous regions like the western U.S. The spatial distribution of snow in these topographically complex catchments is primarily governed by orography, solar radiation, and wind redistribution. While the effect of solar shading is relatively consistent from year-to-year, the redistribution of snow due to wind is more variable–capable of producing snowpacks that have varying degrees of uniformity across these hydrologically-important catchments. A reasonable hypothesis is that a warmer climate will cause snowfall to become more dense (i.e. wetter and heavier), possibly leading to less wind redistribution and thus produce a more uniformly distributed snowpack across the landscape. In this study, we investigate the role of increasingly uniform spatial snowpack distributions on streamflow generation in the Green Lakes Valley Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research station, within the headwaters of the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado. A set of idealized hydrologic simulation experiments driven by reconstructed snowpacks spanning 2001–2014 show that more a more uniform spatial snowpack distribution leads to an earlier melt-out of31 days on average and tends to produce less total streamflow, with maximum decreases as large as 7.5%. Isolating the role of snowpack heterogeneity from melt-season precipitation, we find that snowpack uniformity reduces total streamflow by as much as 13.2%. Reductions in streamflow are largely explained by greater expo-sure to solar radiation in the uniformly distributed case relative to a more heterogeneous snowpack, with this exposure driving shifts towards earlier snowmelt and changes in soil water storage. Overall, we find that the runoff efficiency from shallower snowpacks is more sensitive to the effects of uniformity than deeper snowpacks, which has potential implications for a warming climate where shallower snowpacks and enhanced sensitivities may be present.

Alpine catchment↗

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗

Observational Evidence of EHP Effects on the Melting of Snowpack over the Tibetan Plateau

Observational evidences are presented showing that the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) regions, bounded by the high altitude Himalayan mountains, are subject to heavy loading of absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, which can lead to widespread enhancement warming over the Tibetan Plateau and accelerated snowmelt in the western Tibetan Plateau (WTP) and Himalayas. The two pre-monsoon seasons of 2004 and 2005 were strikingly contrasting in terms of the aerosol loading over IGP. The warming of the TP in 2004 relative to 2005 was widespread, covering most of the WTP and Himalayas. This warming is closely linked to patterns of the snow melt. Consistent with the Elevated Heat Pump hypothesis, we find that increased loading of absorbing aerosols over IGP in the pre-monsoon season is associated with increased heating of the upper troposphere by dynamical feedback induced by aerosol heating, and enhances the rate of snowmelt over Himalayas and the WTP in April-May. Composite analysis with more contrasting years also shows that the heating of the troposphere by elevated dust and black carbon aerosols in the boreal spring can lead to widespread enhanced land-atmosphere warming, and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau.

Kim, Maeng-Ki↗

Investigating Mountain Watershed Headwater‐To‐Groundwater Connections, Water Sources, and Storage Selection Behavior With Dynamic‐Flux Particle Tracking

Abstract Climate change will impact mountain watershed streamflow both directly—with changing precipitation amounts and variability—and indirectly—through temperature shifts altering snowpack, melt, and evapotranspiration. To understand how these complex processes will affect ecosystem functioning and water resources, we need tools to distinguish connections between water sources (rain/snowmelt), groundwater storage, and exit fluxes (streamflow/evapotranspiration), and to determine how these connections change seasonally and as climate shifts. Here, we develop novel watershed‐scale approaches to understand water source, storage, and exit flux connections using a dynamic‐flux particle tracking model (EcoSLIM) applied in California's Cosumnes Watershed, which connects the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. This work develops new visualizations and applications to provide mechanistic understanding that underpins the interpretation of isotopic field data at watershed scales to distinguish sources, flow paths, residence times, and storage selection. In our simulations, streamflow comes primarily from snow‐derived water while evapotranspiration generally comes from rain. Most streamflow starts above 1,000 m while evapotranspiration is sourced relatively evenly across the watershed and is generally younger than streamflow. Modeled streamflow consists primarily of water sourced from precipitation in the previous 5 years but before the current water year, while ET consists primarily of water from precipitation in the current water year. ET, and to a lesser extent streamflow, are both younger than water in groundwater storage. However, snowmelt‐derived streamflow preferentially discharges older water from snow‐derived storage. Dynamic‐flux particle tracking and new approaches presented here enable novel model‐tracer comparisons in large‐scale watersheds to better understand watershed behavior in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model files for estimating snow dynamics and stable water isotopes across the East River, CO.

A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model is used to assesses controls on isotopic inputs across the East River, Colorado, a large, mountainous basin. The hydrologic model uses the semi-empirical, spatially distributed and publicly available U.S. Geological Survey numerical code Precipitation-Modelling Runoff System (PRMS). Water and energy are tracked daily through the atmosphere, canopy and subsurface at a 100-m grid resolution. The isotope mass balance model follows previous work by Ala-aho et al. (2017) to track stable isotopes entering the soil system as snowmelt or rain. Water stores and fluxes needed for the isotope model use hydrologic model output for each timestep and model modeled grid location. This data package provides all files related to the hydrologic model (executable, input and output files), the isotopic model calibration and the historic isotopic model (water years 2015-2020). The isotope model source code and executable are provided. The file "readme.txt" includes information on the file structure, steps to run the model, and description of included folders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microclimate observations associated with snowmelt experiment gradient sites, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020

The timing of snowmelt in mountain systems is a main driver of vegetation phenology and production, as well as recharge of soil moisture and ground water. Decreases in maximum snowpack and warmer spring temperatures have led to a higher frequency of early snowmelt. This study combines a natural elevation gradient with an experimental manipulation of snowmelt timing to assess the effect of earlier melt on hillslope and watershed ecohydrological processes. This data package includes csv files with plot and sub-plot level observations of soil temperature (SM_ST.csv), soil moisture (SM_SWC.csv), air temperature (SM_AirT.csv), and relative humidity (SM_rH.csv). The date range of this dataset includes a pre-treatment year (2017), two treatment years (2018 and 2019), and a post-treatment year (2020). Location IDs associated with this data package are: ER-LM, WG-UM, WG-LS, ER-US, and XX-AL. Related data packages include: “Colorado Elevation Gradient Snowmelt Manipulation Plant Phenology 2017-2018” and “Sensor-based phenology from snowmelt experiment gradient, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020”

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) of Snow Water Equivalent from the Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory

The upper Colorado River basin is the primary source of water for 40 million people. With declining snowpack in the basin, forecasting hydrological budgets in the Southwest United States is more important than ever. However, due in part, to a lack of reliable observations of precipitation in complex terrain, hydrological models struggle to assess and forecast snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE) in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). Therefore, the need for more reliable SWE forecasts in the UCRB motivated the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Facility’s Surface Atmospheric Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) that occurred from June 2021 to June 2023. During SAIL, the X-band precipitation radar from Colorado State University conducted volume scans sampling the precipitation properties over the UCRB. The ARM facility developed a gridded Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (SQUIRE) product from the radar observations. To do this, various daily SWE estimates from radar using the radar reflectivity factor Z e and specific differential phase K dp were compared against ground-based precipitation gauges. SWE in precipitation calculated from Wolfe and Snider’s S–Z e estimator was in best agreement with the rain gauges for the days when SWE < 12 mm. For days with SWE > 12 mm, the WSR-88D Intermountain West relationship had the best agreement with the precipitation gauges. Airborne snow depth observations show that SQUIRE captures regions of orographic enhancement in the mountains to the west and northwest of the SAIL study area, indicating that the scientific community should focus on understanding and ultimately simulating orographic atmospheric precipitation processes to improve UCRB snowpack SWE assessment and forecasting.

Hydrology↗

Improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions

Abstract Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction is highly desired due to the great socioeconomical implications, yet it remains one of the most challenging topics in the weather/climate prediction research area. As part of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) project of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, twenty-one climate models follow the LS4P protocol to quantify the impact of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) springtime anomalies on the global summertime precipitation. We find that nudging towards reanalysis winds is crucial for climate models to generate atmosphere and land surface initial conditions close to observations, which is necessary for meaningful S2S applications. Simulations with nudged initial conditions can better capture the summer precipitation responses to the imposed TP LST/SUBT spring anomalies at hotspot regions all over the world. Further analyses show that the enhanced S2S prediction skill is largely attributable to the substantially improved initialization of the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train pattern in the atmosphere. This study highlights the important role that initial condition plays in the S2S prediction and suggests that data assimilation technique (e.g., nudging) should be adopted to initialize climate models to improve their S2S prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗

Estimating snow grain size using AVIRIS data

Estimates of snow grain size for the near-surface snow layer were calculated for the Tioga Pass region and Mammoth Mountain in the Sierra Nevada, California, using an inversion technique and data collected by the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). The Tioga Pass and Mammoth Mountain single-band AVIRIS radiance images were atmospherically corrected to obtain surface reflectance. A discrete-ordinate model was used to calculate directional reflectance as a function of snowpack grain size for a wide range of snow grain radii. The resulting radius vs. reflectance curves were each fit using a nonlinear least squares technique which provided a means of transforming surface reflectance in each AVIRIS image to optically equivalent grain size on a per-pixel basis. The model results and grain size estimates derived from the AVIRIS data show that, for solar incidence angles between 0 and 30, the technique provides good estimates of grain size. This work provides the first quantitative estimates for grain size using data acquired from an airborne remote sensing instrument and is an important step in improving our ability to retrieve snow physical properties independent of field measurements.

Nolin, Anne W.↗