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Near-Earth Object (NEO) Hazard Background

The fundamental problem regarding NEO hazards is that the Earth and other planets, as well as their moons, share the solar system with a vast number of small planetary bodies and orbiting debris. Objects of substantial size are typically classified as either comets or asteroids. Although the solar system is quite expansive, the planets and moons (as well as the Sun) are occasionally impacted by these objects. We live in a cosmic shooting gallery where collisions with Earth occur on a regular basis. Because the number of smaller comets and asteroids is believed to be much greater than larger objects, the frequency of impacts is significantly higher. Fortunately, the smaller objects, which are much more numerous, are usually neutralized by the Earth's protective atmosphere. It is estimated that between 1000 and 10,000 tons of debris fall to Earth each year, most of it in the form of dust particles and extremely small meteorites. With no atmosphere, the Moon's surface is continuously impacted with dust and small debris. On November 17 and 18, 1999, during the annual Leonid meteor shower, several lunar surface impacts were observed by amateur astronomers in North America. The Leonids result from the Earth's passage each year through the debris ejected from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. These annual showers provide a periodic reminder of the possibility of a much more consequential cosmic collision, and the heavily cratered lunar surface acts a constant testimony to the impact threat. The impact problem and those planetary bodies that are a threat have been discussed in great depth in a wide range of publications and books, such as The Spaceguard Survey , Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, and Cosmic Catastrophes. This paper gives a brief overview on the background of this problem and address some limitations of ground-based surveys for detection of small and/or faint near-Earth objects.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

Minor planet 1566 Icarus: Asteroid or comet?

By employing a cometary nongravitational force model, based on the outgassing of a water ice nucleus, the orbital fits to the optical and radar astrometric data are improved for both Apollo and Icarus. A reliable value for the magnitude of these nongravitational effects can be determined for Icarus, but not Apollo. Because Icarus is less than a kilometer in extent, the small amount of outgassing required to explain its anomalous orbital behavior would probably not be sufficient to create an easily visible coma. While these results do not prove that 1566 Icarus is an active comet masquerading as an asteroid, this object certainly deserves future scrutiny to determine its true identity. A near-Earth asteroid showing cometary activity must represent only the tip of a much larger cometary iceburg. For such an object whose aphelion is well inside Jupiter's orbit, the time scale for losing its volatiles is much shorter than the time scale for evolving out of the inner solar system. Thus, for each active member of the near-Earth asteroid population, there must be many more that are temporarily or permanently inactive.

Yeomans, Donald K.↗

Interplanetary dust particles collected from the stratosphere: Physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties and implications for their sources

The suggestion that significant quantities of interplanetary dust are produced by both main-belt asteroids and comets is based on the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detection of dust trails or bands associated with these objects. Gravitational focusing strongly biases all near-Earth collections of interplanetary dust in favor of particles with the lowest geocentric velocities, that is the dust from main-belt asteroids spiraling into the Sun under the influence of Poynting-Robertson radiation drag. The major dust bands in the main-belt appear to be associated with the catastrophic disruptions which produced the Eos, Themis and Koronis families of asteroids. If dust particles are produced in the catastrophic collision process, then Poynting-Robertson radiation drag is such an efficient transport mechanism from the main-belt to 1 AU that near-Earth collections of interplanetary dust should include, and perhaps be dominated by, this material. Interplanetary dust particles from 5 to 100 micrometers in diameter have been recovered from the stratosphere of the Earth by NASA sampling aircraft since the mid-1970s. The densities of a large fraction of these interplanetary dust particles are significantly lower than the densities of their constituent silicate mineral phases, indicating significant porosites. The majority of the particles are chemically and mineralogically similar to, but not identical to, the carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Most stony interplanetary dust particles have carbon contents exceeding those of Allende, a carbonaceous chondrite meteorite having a low albedo. Higher albedo particles corresponding to S-type asteroids are underrepresented or absent from the stratospheric collections, and primitive carbonaceous particles seem to be overrepresented in the stratospheric collections compared to the fraction of main-belt asteroids classified as primitive. This suggests that much of the interplanetary dust may be generated by a stochastic process, probably preferentially sampling a few most recent collisional events.

Flynn, George J.↗

Solar System Science with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope

We present a community-led assessment of the solar system investigations achievable with NASA's next-generation space telescope, the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). WFIRST will provide imaging, spectroscopic, and coronagraphic capabilities from 0.43 to 2.0 m and will be a potential contemporary and eventual successor to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Surveys of irregular satellites and minor bodies are where WFIRST will excel with its 0.28 deg2 field-of-view Wide Field Instrument. Potential ground- breaking discoveries from WFIRST could include detection of the first minor bodies orbiting in the inner Oort Cloud, identification of additional Earth Trojan asteroids, and the discovery and characterization of asteroid binary systems similar to Ida/Dactyl. Additional investigations into asteroids, giant planet satellites, Trojan asteroids, Centaurs, Kuiper belt objects, and comets are presented. Previous use of astrophysics assets for solar system science and synergies between WFIRST, Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, JWST, and the proposed Near-Earth Object Camera mission is discussed. We also present the case for implementation of moving target tracking, a feature that will benefit from the heritage of JWST and enable a broader range of solar system observations.

Holler, Bryan J.↗

The Near Earth Object Scout Spacecraft: A Low Cost Approach to in-situ Characterization of the NEO Population

In this paper we describe a micro/nano satellite spacecraft and a supporting mission profile and architecture designed to enable preliminary in-situ characterization of a significant number of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) at reasonable cost. The spacecraft will be referred to as the NEO Scout. NEO Scout spacecraft are to be placed in GTO, GEO, or cis-lunar space as secondary payloads on launch vehicles headed for GTO or beyond and will begin their mission after deployment from the launcher. A distinguishing key feature of the NEO scout system is to design the mission timeline and spacecraft to rendezvous with and land on the target NEOs during close approach to the Earth-Moon system using low-thrust/high- impulse propulsion systems. Mission feasibility and preliminary design analysis are presented along with detailed trajectory calculations. The use of micro/nano satellites in low-cost interplanetary exploration is attracting increasing attention and is the subject of several annual workshops and published design studies (1-4). The NEO population consists of those asteroids and short period comets orbiting the Sun with a perihelion of 1.3 astronomical units or less (5-8). As of July 30, 2013 10065 Near-Earth objects have been discovered. The spin rate, mass, density, surface physical (especially mechanical) properties, composition, and mineralogy of the vast majority of these objects are highly uncertain and the limited available telescopic remote sensing data imply a very diverse population (5-8). In-situ measurements by robotic spacecraft are urgently needed to provide the characterization data needed to support hardware and mission design for more ambitious human and robotic NEO operations. Large numbers of NEOs move into close proximity with the Earth-Moon system every year (9). The JPL Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) (10) has produced detailed mission profile and delta V requirements for various NEO missions ranging from 30 to 420 days in duration and assuming chemical propulsion. Similar studies have been reported assuming high power electric propulsion for manned NEO rendezvous missions (11). The delta V requirement breakdown and mission profile data from references 10 and 11 are used as a basis for sizing the NEO Scout spacecraft and for conducting preliminary feasibility assessments using the Tsiokolvsky rocket equation, a (worst-case) delta V requirement of 10 km/sec, and a maximum spacecraft dry mass of 20 kg. Using chemical propellant for a 10 km/sec delta V drives spacecraft wet mass well above 300 kg so that chemical propulsion is a non-starter for the proposed mission profile and spacecraft wet mass limits. In contrast, a solar electric propulsion system needs only 8 kg of Xe propellant to accelerate the spacecraft to 10 km/sec in 163 days with 0.02 N of thrust and 500 W of power from1.6 sq m of 29% efficient solar panels. In a second example, accelerating a 4 kg payload to 7 km/sec over 180 days requires about 6.7 kg of propellant and 1.2 kg of solar panels (12 kg total spacecraft wet mass).

Koontz, Steven L.↗

The 1986 DA and 1986 EB: M-class asteroids in near-Earth orbits

The Earth-approaching asteroid population is composed of asteroids in orbits with short lifetimes compared with the age of the solar system. These objects which are comprised of Aten, Apollo, and Amor asteroids must be replenished from either cometary or mainbelt asteroid sources since lifetimes against collision with or ejection by a planet are on the order of 10 to 100 million years. The physical study of Earth-approaching asteroids is constrained by the generally long period between favorable apparitions and poorly known orbits. Broadband spectrophotometry on the Johnson UBVR system and the Eight-Color Asteroid Survey system were obtained at Kitt Peak National Observatory and on the Johnson JHK system and at 10 and 20 microns at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility at Mauna Kea Observatory. These observations were used to determine the absolute visual magnitudes and to derive the visual geometric albedos and diameters on the IRAS system. The spectral reflectance properties and geometric albedos of the M-class asteroids are consistent compositions analogous to the iron nickel meteorites or the enstatite-metal assemblages of the enstatite chondrites. The issue of the source(s) of the near-Earth asteroids population was examined by comparing the classifications on the scheme employed by Gradie and Tedesco of 38 such asteroids. Most of the near-Earth objects is indeed the asteroid belt as the observations suggest, then a method for removing extinct nuclei of short period comets must be found since the rate of production of short period comets from the long period comets is relatively large.

Gradie, Jonathan↗

(abstract) Asteroids and Comets: Future Imaging Opportunities with Earth-Based Radar Systems

Major improvements currently underway to the Arecibo 305 m antenna and 13 cm wavelength radar system will currently increase the radar system's sensitivity by a factor of about 20. Recent upgrades to the Goldstone 3.5 cm wavelength radar system have also improved its sensitivity. While the Arecibo system will have significantly greater sensitivity than Goldstone, the Arecibo antenna's limited declination coverage of -2(deg) to +38(deg) means that the Goldstone system will be important for the investigation of near-Earth objects with declinations outside this range. Over one hundred mainbelt and near-Earth asteroids per year will be observable with the new Arecibo system, and there will be a number of good imaging opportunities each year. While only a few imaging opportunities are predicted for comets over the next 10 years, the system will be able to respond to unexpected cometary opportunities. We are currently investigating the applicability of VLBI techniques to the direct synthesis of images of asteroids and comets illuminated by a radar signal.

asteroids comets radar imaging Arecibo Goldstone V↗

Gripping Mechanisms for Microgravity and Extreme Terrain and Vertical Climbing Micro Ground Vehicle

Asteroids and comets may provide insight into the origins of our solar system and the precursors to life on our planet. Near Earth objects offer an accessible target of opportunity, but are small and lack the gravity necessary for conventional wheeled travel. Therefore, it is necessary to develop alternative methods for maneuvering in these environments. This project researched and developed a method for gripping rock surfaces. Work has been completed on the design and prototyping of several possible hooked gripping mechanisms. Future work includes quantitative testing, downselection to a final design, and attachment to the robotic platform, Lemur IIb. A second project focuses on the development of a 100g, crash-proof robot capable of climbing vertical surfaces using a novel silicone adhesive. Capable of carrying video/audio payloads the robot may serve as a surveillance tool for the Department of Defense or as a method of pre-flight spacecraft inspections. A specialized track was developed to provide the specific loading conditions necessary for proper engagement of the adhesive. Both of these projects rely heavily on the shape deposition manufacturing process, being researched at JPL, and 3D printing.

robotic locomotion↗

Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

near- Earth object↗

A search for clustering among the meteoroid impacts detected by the Apollo lunar seismic network

A difference is noted between meteoroids whose masses lie above and below 1 kg in temporal meteoroid-impact clusterings detected by the Apollo lunar seismic network; while the former exhibit little temporal clustering, small ones show strong clusterings identifiable with terrestrial meteor showers. This finding suggests a different type and origin for the two meteoroid sizes; the small may be primarily cometary, while the large may derive from near-earth asteroids and short-period comets. It is speculated that the June, 1975, and January, 1977 swarms of large meteoroids may contain high-density meteoritic objects interpretable as meteorite streams.

Oberst, Juergen↗

Volatile-rich Asteroids in the Inner Solar System

Bennu (101195), target of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission, is a type-B asteroid with abundant spectral evidence for hydrated silicates, low thermal inertia “boulders” and frequent bursts of particle emission. We suggest that Bennu’s parent body formed in the outer solar system before it was perturbed into the asteroid belt and then evolved into a near-Earth object. We show that this is consistent with models of planetesimal evolution. Bennu has many characteristics expected for a dormant comet, and could potentially contain a minimum of 1 wt.% adsorbed water if its gross mineralogy is consistent with the Orgueil meteorite. This is in addition to any ice or water contained within the hydrous minerals themselves. Based on this hypothesis, we predict the properties of the samples that will be returned to Earth by the OSIRIS-REx mission, including abundant phyllosilicate minerals, amorphous hydrated silicates and low-density, very high-porosity aggregates, already observed by the OSIRIS-REx instrument suite. We predict enrichments in D/H and 15N/14N, high C/Mg ratios (>∼7 wt%), and a greater range of organic compositions than found in meteorites, including an organic component poor in aromatics, and a more labile organic fraction. Ammonium salts, ranging from NH4Cl to ammonium–organic acid salts could carry much of the nitrogen in comets, yet only NH4CH3COO and heavier salts are sufficiently stable to be found in these returned samples. Water adsorbed onto highly porous grains should also be detected provided that the sample return capsule remains below 300 K during Earth return, and this water should be isotopically heavy.

Joseph A. Nuth, III↗

Suborbital Asteroid Intercept and Fragmentation for Very Short Warning Time Scenarios

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) 50150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. However, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt).We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a fictitious incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally, at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances.Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEOwould strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total V 9.511 kms) could intercept incoming NEOs over a day prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of NEO intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Planetary Defense↗

Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking (NEAT) Program

The discoveries of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and Comets have increased enormously over the last 10-20 years. This is a consequence, in large part, of the success of programs that have systematically searched for these objects.

Asteroids↗

Where do the Apollo objects come from?

The orbital evolutions of 1-45 km-diameter Apollo and Amor bodies generated by asteroid belt collisions interior to 2.6 AU are presently traced by Monte Carlo calculations. About 3 percent of the asteroidal fragments of this type and size that are ejected with velocities of 100 m/sec are perturbed into earth-crossing orbits by the 3:1 Jovian commensurability resonance at 2.5 AU, as well as a secular resonance in the innermost asteroid belt. While the initial earth-crossing orbits of these bodies are concentrated near 1 AU, their steady-state orbital distribution is widely dispersed. Additional objects that may be characterized as inactive comets are inferred from strongly suggestive data.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

Use of a scanning CCD to discriminate asteroid images moving in a field of stars

In the presently revealed use of a CCD in scanning mode to recover asteroids and comet nuclei, discover new asteroids in the main belt, and follow up the astrometry of selected new asteroids, the routine limiting visual magnitude is 19.6. Semiautomatic software for detection of moving objects is in use, allowing angular speeds as low as 11.0 arcsec/hr to be distinguished from the effects of the earth's atmosphere on the field of view. A typical set of three 29-min scans near the opposition point along the ecliptic typically nets at least five new main belt asteroids down to magnitude 19.6. In 18 monthly observing runs, 59 new asteroids have been obtained and 22 comets have been located.

Mcmillan, R. S.↗

Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Asteroid↗

Origin and Evolution of the Unusual Object 1996 PW: Asteroids from the Oort Cloud?

The unusual object 1996 PW was discovered on 1996 August 9 by the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking automated search camera operating from Haleakala in Hawaii. Although asteroidal in appearance, it was soon determined that the object is in a near-parabolic orbit similar to that of a long-period comet. No object that was not an active comet has ever been discovered on such an eccentric orbit. The discovery of 1996 PW prompted us to examine and evaluate its possible origins, including the intriguing possibility that it is an asteroid from the Oort cloud. Current models for the formation of the Oort cloud argue that most of the material there should be from the Uranus-Neptune region and thus cometary, not asteroidal, in composition. We better quantify these models and show that approximately 1% of the Oort Cloud population should be asteroids. We find that 1996 PW has almost certainly been a resident of the Oort cloud. However, we find it equally likely that 1996 PW is an extinct comet or an asteroid. Although not conclusive, our results represent a significant change in our understanding of the Oort cloud, because they suggest that the ejection process sampled material from as close to the Sun as the asteroid belt in the primordial solar nebula and hence much warmer formation temperatures than previously thought. This diverse sample is preserved in the Oort cloud.

Weissman, Paul R.↗