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Opportunities to observe new hadrons with very narrow widths are discussed. Two areas of focus are the lowest P-states of heavy-light mesons and doubly heavy baryons.
New optical spectroscopic observations along with ultraviolet IUE observations have been obtained for the two interacting F or G III + B V binaries: HD 43246 and HD 127208. Photometric observations indicate random changes superimposed on regular ellipsoidal light variations, the latter probably the result of tidal distortion of the giant primaries. Mass transfer and loss is apparent in inverted mass ratios derived from orbital analysis, strong wind features present in the spectra, and the presence of circumsystem shells. Regular and irregular changes in the spectral features are discussed in this context.
One of NASA’s Decadal Survey mission, Surface Biology and Geology (SBG), will include a hyperspectral remote sensing imager, which has a very high spatial resolution and a wide spectral coverage (from UV to Near IR). Unprecedented large data volumes will be generated by the SBG hyperspectral instrument. Before the launch of the new satellite, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) can be used to study different designs of the new satellite system. One of the key components in an OSSE study is a radiative transfer model (RTM) or forward model. In this presentation, we will describe a Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) which is capable of simulating atmospheric (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra from far IR to visible and UV spectral regions (50 wavenumber to 30000 wavenumber) quickly and accurately. Multiple scattering from multiple layers of clouds/aerosols are included in the model. The PCRTM has a very good accuracy relative to reference line-by-line radiative transfer models (LBLRTM), and it saves 3-4 orders of magnitude computational time relative to LBLRTM or MODTRAN. The PCRTM model has been successfully used to analyze large volumes of data from hyperspectral sensors such as AIRS, CrIS, and IASI. It has also been used to perform OSSE studies for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission. Another useful tool for the OSSE is surface Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) database. It is very crucial for the SBG OSSE to include realistic BRDF spectra. Currently, most of the surface reflectance spectra such as those in the ECOSIS and ECOSTRESS are measured at specific observation geometries. We have developed a hyperspectral bidirectional reflectance (HSBR) model which combines Ross-Li BRDF model with the existing reflectance spectral libraries using a principal component analysis. This HSBR model can provide realistic BRDF spectra under various observation conditions. It can also be used to generate realistic BRDF spectra using measurements from multi-band imagers or spectrometers such as MODIS or VIIRS.
Landslides are extremely damaging, pervasive and cause fatalities and economic impacts. Extreme rainfall events, coupled with inopportune surface conditions, are the primary triggers of landslides around the world. Forecasting landslide events represent an area of open research. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model has been created that provides near real-time dynamic landslide characterization using Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on prediction of landslides into future. This study considers how global precipitation forecast data compares to satellite rainfall at different spatiotemporal scales and outlines the potential for its use in landslide hazard prediction/forecasting system. NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Forecast model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The GEOS-Forecast model is initialized at 00 UTC and is evaluated with IMERG Early, using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) precipitation product as a reference over contiguous United States (CONUS). Categorical and continuous statistics along with probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions are considered to assess the performance of the precipitation products, with a focus on landslide hotspots. Seasonality appears to influence the performance of both the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early product. Moreover, the global comparison between the GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early is carried out in terms of percentile difference, correlation, and bias maps. For extreme rainfall events in regions such as Mekong, Colombia, and Tajikistan, GEOS-Forecast appears to resolve high rainfall relative to IMERG Early more frequently. Validation over landslide points reveal that for 24hr rainfall accumulations > 100mm, GEOS-Forecast and IMERG coincide. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG Early precipitation matches more closely for tropical cyclones than other types of storms. Overall, the performance varies with respect to location, rainfall intensities, and type of precipitation events.
This paper addresses focus area 3, “Insight gleaned from complex data.” Science Challenge: The climate-water system is highly complex, containing a multitude of positive and negative feedbacks, time scales stretching many orders-of-magnitudes, and non-linear, connected processes. Powerful artificial intelligence (AI) methods can revolutionize and automate the discovery of new knowledge and relationships in the climate-water system, which will improve understanding and predictability of extreme hydrological events.
ABSTRACT We present new observations from CHEOPS (CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite) and TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) to clarify the architecture of the planetary system hosted by the old Galactic thick disc star TOI-561. Our global analysis, which also includes previously published photometric and radial velocity data, incontrovertibly proves that TOI-561 is hosting at least four transiting planets with periods of 0.44 d (TOI-561 b), 10.8 d (TOI-561 c), 25.7 d (TOI-561 d), and 77.1 d (TOI-561 e) and a fifth non-transiting candidate, TOI-561f with a period of 433 d. The precise characterization of TOI-561’s orbital architecture is interesting since old and metal-poor thick disc stars are less likely to host ultrashort-period super-Earths like TOI-561 b. The new period of planet -e is consistent with the value obtained using radial velocity alone and is now known to be $77.14399\pm 0.00025$ d, thanks to the new CHEOPS and TESS transits. The new data allowed us to improve its radius ($R_p = 2.517 \pm 0.045\,\mathrm{ R}_{\rm{\oplus }}$ from 5 per cent to 2 per cent precision) and mass ($M_p = 12.4 \pm 1.4\, \mathrm{ M}_{\rm{\oplus }}$) estimates, implying a density of $\rho _p = 0.778 \pm 0.097\, \rho _{\rm{\oplus }}$. Thanks to recent TESS observations and the focused CHEOPS visit of the transit of TOI-561 e, a good candidate for exomoon searches, the planet’s period is finally constrained, allowing us to predict transit times through 2030 with 20-min accuracy. We present an updated version of the internal structure of the four transiting planets. We finally performed a detailed stability analysis, which confirmed the long-term stability of the outer planet TOI-561 f.
Next-generation science and exploration systems will employ new observation strategies that will use multiple sensors in a dynamic environment to provide high quality monitoring, self-consistent analyses and informed decision making. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing of earth phenomenon. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe the dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify events of interest and how to react when an event is detected. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientist/user. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems Aqua/Terra spacecrafts MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM is being used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.
With scientific objectives for Earth observation programs becoming more ambitious and spacecraft becoming more autonomous, the need for new technical approaches on the feasibility of achieving and maintaining formations of spacecraft has come to the forefront. The trend to develop small low cost spacecraft has led many scientists to recognize the advantage of flying several spacecraft in formation, an example of which is shown in the figure below, to achieve the correlated instrument measurements formerly possible only by flying many instruments on a single large platform. Yet, formation flying imposes additional complications on orbit maintenance, especially when each spacecraft has its own orbit requirements. However, advances in automation proposed by GSFC Codes 550 and 712 allow more of the burden in maneuver planning and execution to be placed onboard the spacecraft, mitigating some of the associated operational concerns. The purpose of this analysis is to develop the fundamentals of formation flying mechanics, concepts for understanding the relative motion of free flying spacecraft, and an operational control theory for formation maintenance of the Earth Observing-1 (EO-l) spacecraft that is part of the New Millennium. Results of this development can be used to determine the appropriateness of formation flying for a particular case as well as the operational impacts. Applications to the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) Earth Observing System (EOS) and New Millennium (NM) were highly considered in analysis and applications. This paper presents the proposed methods for the guidance and control of the EO-1 spacecraft to formation fly with the Landsat-7 spacecraft using an autonomous closed loop three axis navigation control, GPS, and Cross link navigation support. Simulation results using various fidelity levels of modeling, algorithms developed and implemented in MATLAB, and autonomous 'fuzzy logic' control using AutoCon will be presented. The results of these analysis on the ability to meet mission and formation flying requirements will be presented.
A new type of jump resonance is predicted and observed in certain nonlinear feedback control systems. The new jump resonance characteristic is described as a 'frequency island' due to the fact that a portion of the input-output transfer characteristic is disjoint from the main body. The presence of such frequency islands was predicted by using a sinusoidal describing function characterization of the dynamics of an inertial gyro employing nonlinear ternary rebalance logic. While the general conditions under which such islands are possible has not been examined, a numerical approach is presented which can aid in establishing their presence. The existence of the frequency islands predicted for the ternary rebalanced gyro was confirmed by simulating the nonlinear system and measuring the transfer function.
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Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.
MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.
We present the results of Very Large Array NH3 (J, K) = (1, 1) and (2, 2) observations of the HH 111/HH 121 protostellar system. HH 111, with a spectacular collimated optical jet, is one of the most well-known Herbig-Haro objects. We report the detection of a new source, NH3-S, in the vicinity of HH 111/HH 121 (approximately 0.03 parsecs from the HH 111 jet source) in two epochs of the ammonia observations. This constitutes the first detection of this source, in a region that has been thoroughly covered previously by both continuum and spectral line interferometric observations. We study the kinematic and physical properties of HH 111 and the newly discovered NH3-S. We also use HCO plus and HCN (J=4-3) data obtained with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope and archival Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (sup 13) CO, (sup 12) CO, and C (sup 18) O (J=2-1), N2D plus (J=3-2), and (sup 13) CS (J=5-4) data to gain insight into the nature of NH3-S. The chemical structure of NH3-S shows evidence for "selective freeze-out," an inherent characteristic of dense cold cores. The inner part of NH3-S shows subsonic nonthermal velocity dispersions indicating a "coherent core," while they increase in the direction of the jets. Archival near- to far-infrared data show no indication of any embedded source in NH3-S. The properties of NH3-S and its location in the infrared dark cloud suggest that it is a starless core located in a turbulent medium, with the turbulence induced by Herbig-Haro jets and associated outflows. More data are needed to fully understand the physical and chemical properties of NH3-S and if/how its evolution is affected by nearby jets.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.
This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.
Deep neural operators can learn nonlinear mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces via deep neural networks. As promising surrogate solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) for real-time prediction, deep neural operators such as deep operator networks (DeepONets) provide a new simulation paradigm in science and engineering. Pure data-driven neural operators and deep learning models, in general, are usually limited to interpolation scenarios, where new predictions utilize inputs within the support of the training set. However, in the inference stage of real-world applications, the input may lie outside the support, i.e., extrapolation is required, which may result to large errors and unavoidable failure of deep learning models. Here, we address this challenge of extrapolation for deep neural operators. First, we systematically investigate the extrapolation behavior of DeepONets by quantifying the extrapolation complexity, via the 2-Wasserstein distance between two function spaces and propose a new strategy of bias–variance trade-off for extrapolation with respect to model capacity. Subsequently, we develop a complete workflow, including extrapolation determination, and we propose five reliable learning methods that guarantee a safe prediction under extrapolation by requiring additional information—the governing PDEs of the system or sparse new observations. The proposed methods are based on either fine-tuning a pre-trained DeepONet or multifidelity learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for various types of parametric PDEs. Furthermore, our systematic comparisons provide practical guidelines for selecting a proper extrapolation method depending on the available information, desired accuracy, and required inference speed.
The Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability affects a vast range of High Energy Density (HED) length scales, spanning from supernova explosions (10 13 m) to inertial confinement fusion (10 -6 m). In inertial confinement fusion, the RT instability is known to induce mixing or turbulent transition, which in turn cools the hot spot and hinders ignition. The fine-scale features of the RT instability, which are difficult to image in HED physics, may help determine if the system is mixing or is transitioning to turbulence. Earlier diagnostics lacked the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to diagnose the dynamics that occur along the RT structure. A recently developed diagnostic, the Crystal Backlighter Imager (CBI), [1,2] can now produce an x-ray radiograph capable of resolving the fine-scale features expected in these RT unstable systems. This paper describes an experimental design that adapts a well-characterized National Ignition Facility (NIF) platform to accommodate the CBI diagnostic. Simulations and synthetic radiographs highlight the resolution capabilities of the CBI in comparison to previous diagnostics. Furthermore, the improved resolution of the system can provide new observations to study the RT instability's involvement in mixing and the transition to turbulence in the HED regime.
The necessity of expending numerous ground-side manhours to write extremely concise command codes for deep-space probes in-flight, which carry limited on-board processing capabilities, is encouraging the development of AI modules to perform the same task. An experimental automated sequence planner, Deviser, has proven successful enough, when used on a mainframe computer, to continue with the next generation of the concept, PLAN-IT, an expert scheduler for spacecraft observation targets. The new system will provide the ground-based user with interactive graphic displays for choosing targets and generates an expected time-line. An updated Deviser, using the new modules, will be tested after the Voyager Uranus encounter, and PLAN-IT will be employed to formulate Spacelab activity schedules.