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An Investigation of State-Space Model Fidelity for SSME Data

In previous studies, a variety of unsupervised anomaly detection techniques for anomaly detection were applied to SSME (Space Shuttle Main Engine) data. The observed results indicated that the identification of certain anomalies were specific to the algorithmic method under consideration. This is the reason why one of the follow-on goals of these previous investigations was to build an architecture to support the best capabilities of all algorithms. We appeal to that goal here by investigating a cascade, serial architecture for the best performing and most suitable candidates from previous studies. As a precursor to a formal ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve analysis for validation of resulting anomaly detection algorithms, our primary focus here is to investigate the model fidelity as measured by variants of the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) for state-space based models. We show that placing constraints on a state-space model during or after the training of the model introduces a modest level of suboptimality. Furthermore, we compare the fidelity of all candidate models including those embodying the cascade, serial architecture. We make recommendations on the most suitable candidates for application to subsequent anomaly detection studies as measured by AIC-based criteria.

Space Shuttles

Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report: Volume One

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board's independent investigation into the February 1, 2003, loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its seven-member crew lasted nearly seven months. A staff of more than 120, along with some 400 NASA engineers, supported the Board's 13 members. Investigators examined more than 30,000 documents, conducted more than 200 formal interviews, heard testimony from dozens of expert witnesses, and reviewed more than 3,000 inputs from the general public. In addition, more than 25,000 searchers combed vast stretches of the Western United States to retrieve the spacecraft's debris. In the process, Columbia's tragedy was compounded when two debris searchers with the U.S. Forest Service perished in a helicopter accident. This report discusses the attributes of an organization that could more safely and reliably operate the inherently risky Space Shuttle, but does not provide a detailed organizational prescription. Among those attributes are: a robust and independent program technical authority that has complete control over specifications and requirements, and waivers to them; an independent safety assurance organization with line authority over all levels of safety oversight; and an organizational culture that reflects the best characteristics of a learning organization. This report concludes with recommendations, some of which are specifically identified and prefaced as "before return to flight." These recommendations are largely related to the physical cause of the accident, and include preventing the loss of foam, improved imaging of the Space Shuttle stack from liftoff through separation of the External Tank, and on-orbit inspection and repair of the Thermal Protection System. The remaining recommendations, for the most part, stem from the Board's findings on organizational cause factors. While they are not "before return to flight" recommendations, they can be viewed as "continuing to fly" recommendations, as they capture the Board's thinking on what changes are necessary to operate the Shuttle and future spacecraft safely in the mid- to long-term.

CAIB

Fire-Resistant Textile Development for Exploration Vehicles With Enriched-Oxygen Cabin Environments

Material selection is a key part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) spacecraft fire safety management plan. Non-flammable textiles are necessary to ensure large-scale flame propagation events do not occur inside a spacecraft. An increased use of textiles and other softgood material is crucial to the pursuit of exploration spaceflight to reduce mass and volume. Exploration spaceflight missions benefit from enriched oxygen cabin environments (>21% O2) by allowing a reduced prebreathe protocol before Extravehicular Activity (EVA). However, materials become exponentially more flammable the higher the O2 levels become. Recent testing within the agency has revealed the lack of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) materials that can meet safety requirements in oxygen-enriched environments. Most of the fibers and textiles developed during Apollo (100% O2 cabin environment) and Skylab (>70% O2 cabin environment) are no longer commercially available due to those Programs ending and the discontinuation of raw materials or closure of the original manufacturers. As NASA returns to higher oxygen concentrations inside spacecraft, non-flammable textile development efforts have begun to meet the agency’s needs. This paper discusses those efforts including overall fire safety approach, state-of-the-art textile review and testing, an agency-wide assessment of textile needs performed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), the textile development strategy and expected challenges.

Mary Walker

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction

Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report: Volume Four

Volume IV of the Report contains appendices that were not cited in Volume I. These consist of documents produced by NASA and other organizations, which were provided to the Columbia Accident Investigation Board in support of its inquiry into the February 1, 2003 destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. The documents are compiled in this volume in the interest of establishing a complete record, but they do not necessarily represent the views of the Board. Volume I contains the Board's findings, analysis, and recommendations. The documents in Volume III through V are also contained in their original color format on the DVD disc in the back of Volume II. Volumes II – VI contain a number of conclusions and recommendations, several of which were adopted by the Board in Volume I. The other conclusions and recommendations drawn in Volumes II – VI do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Board, but are included for the record. When there is conflict, Volume I takes precedence.

NASA

Water-Moderated Reactor Concept

Because of the importance of nuclear rockets for manned planetary flight, the Lewis Research Center has been studying alternate nuclear rocket concepts that have the potential for meeting the high performance requirements of these missions. Lewis has concentrated its advanced nuclear rocket research program on a tungsten-water-moderated concept. The purpose of this presentation is to describe this concept and give a brief resume of some of the work that has been done in support of it.

Frank E Rom

Thin Film Sensors for Fission Surface Power

Physical sensors fabricated with thin films could result a significant savings in space and weight with improved reliability for monitoring the long-term operation of fission surface power systems. Thin film sensors of 1 µm or less are attractive for FSP applications because they can be incorporated onto component surfaces with minimal machining and the additional weight to a system is minimal compared to thick film-, wire-, or foil-based sensors. The thin, surface fabrication of the sensors is also expected to make them less susceptible to deep dose effects that affect thicker sensors. An overview of thin film sensors using thermocouples and resistive elements designed, fabricated, and demonstrated at GRC for aerospace applications exceeding 900°C is presented.

Physical Sensors

Thermodynamic Properties of Uranium-Zirconium Carbide Solid Solutions with Oxygen

Uranium-zirconium carbide solid solutions are potential candidates for fuel in space nuclear reactors. To support development of advanced robust fuels for space applications, (U y Zr 1-y )C x O z solid solutions were synthesized via carbothermic reduction with uranium, carbon, and oxygen contents raging from y=0.05 – 0.3, x=0.95 – 0.98, and z = 0.02 – 0.07. These solid solutions were subsequently characterized by X-ray diffraction and elemental combustion analysis. High-temperature oxidative drop solution calorimetry in molten sodium molybdate solvent at 1073 K was employed to determine the formation, oxidation, and mixing enthalpies of (U y Zr 1-y )C x O z solid solutions, and thereby for evaluating their thermodynamic stability. The solid solutions are enthalpically less stable than the UC and ZrC end members. They also become less stable and more reactive towards oxidation with increasing uranium content. Incorporation of oxygen into solid solutions increases their solid solution-stability and improves their oxidation resistance.

Calorimetry

NASA Battery Working Group - 2007-2008: Battery Task Summary Report

This presentation provides a summary of the 2007-2008 NASA Battery Working Group efforts completed in support of the NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC). The effort covered a series of pro-active tasks that address the following: Binding Procurements -- guidelines related to requirements for the battery system that should be considered at the time of contract award Wet Life of Ni-H2 Batteries -- issues/strategies for effective storage and impact of long-term storage on performance and life Generic Guidelines for Lithium-ion Safety, Handling and Qualification -- Standardized approaches developed and risk assessments (1) Lithium-ion Performance Assessment -- survey of manufacturers and capabilities to meet mission needs. Guidelines document generated (2) Conditions Required for using Pouch Cells in Aerospace Missions -- focus on corrosion, thermal excursions and long-term performance issues. Document defining requirements to maintain performance and life (3) High Voltage Risk Assessment -- focus on safety and abuse tolerance of battery module assemblies. Recommendations of features required for safe implementation (4) Procedure for Determination of Safe Charge Rates -- evaluation of various cell chemistries and recommendation of safe operating regimes for specific cell designs

Manzo, Michelle

High-Fidelity Modeling Approach for Coupling Thermal, Fluid, and Neutronic Analysis in an NTP Engine

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), with its increased efficiency compared to traditional rocket engines, is a potentially enabling technology for space missions of higher complexity, such as delivering heavy machinery or crew to the moon or other planets. Thus, exploring modeling approaches that can effectively couple the thermal, fluid, and neutronic behaviors of NTP reactors is essential to mitigate cost and schedule challenges with hardware development. This paper details one such approach which utilizes Cardinal to unify reactor physics analysis performed using OpenMC, heat transfer analysis performed using the MOOSE framework, and thermal hydraulic analysis performed using the MOOSE Thermal Hydraulic Module. This approach is demonstrated with a proof of concept that focuses on a legacy reactor geometry from the historic NERVA program. This preliminary model found an overprediction in, when compared to the reference data, axial power peaking and the temperatures of both solids and fluids by roughly 20%. It is clear, however, that the model conserved a number of broad trends, and a few model refinements should reduce the observed error. This approach has definite merit and should enable the production of informative results for more modern NTP systems. This work is a first step in creating a transient reactor model that can be updated across a sequence of time steps based on continually fluctuating, time-dependent boundary conditions.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Fire-Resistant Textile Development for Exploration Vehicles With Enriched-Oxygen Cabin Environments

Material selection is a key part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) spacecraft fire safety management plan. Non-flammable textiles are necessary to ensure large-scale flame propagation events do not occur inside a spacecraft. An increased use of textiles and other softgood material is crucial to the pursuit of exploration spaceflight to reduce mass and volume. Exploration spaceflight missions benefit from enriched oxygen cabin environments (>21% O2) by allowing a reduced prebreathe protocol before Extravehicular Activity (EVA). However, materials become exponentially more flammable the higher the O2 levels become. Recent testing within the agency has revealed the lack of commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) materials that can meet safety requirements in oxygen-enriched environments. Most of the fibers and textiles developed during Apollo (100% O2 cabin environment) and Skylab (>70% O2 cabin environment) are no longer commercially available due to those Programs ending and the discontinuation of raw materials or closure of the original manufacturers. As NASA returns to higher oxygen concentrations inside spacecraft, non-flammable textile development efforts have begun to meet the agency’s needs. This paper discusses those efforts including overall fire safety approach, priorities, interactions with industry, flammability testing and expected challenges.

Karim Aly

Summary of NASA Aerospace Flight Battery Systems Program activities

A summary of NASA Aerospace Flight Battery Systems Program Activities is presented. The NASA Aerospace Flight Battery Systems Program represents a unified NASA wide effort with the overall objective of providing NASA with the policy and posture which will increase the safety, performance, and reliability of space power systems. The specific objectives of the program are to: enhance cell/battery safety and reliability; maintain current battery technology; increase fundamental understanding of primary and secondary cells; provide a means to bring forth advanced technology for flight use; assist flight programs in minimizing battery technology related flight risks; and ensure that safe, reliable batteries are available for NASA's future missions.

Manzo, Michelle

Data Base and Guidelines Document Developed for Lithium-Ion Battery

Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries are fast becoming the battery chemistry of choice for aerospace applications requiring (rechargeable) power supplies. These batteries offer high-energy density and high-specific energy combined with excellent rate capability and cycle potential. The increased energy content and operational characteristics of this system require defined safety and handling procedures to ensure the safe implementation. Standardized approaches to defining, determining, and addressing safety, handling, and qualification for Li-Ion batteries have been developed and published as an NESC-sponsored Li-Ion Battery Guidelines Document. A data base was established cataloging cells and batteries that have been considered for aerospace applications.

Data Base and Guidelines

Lithium Nucleation of Anode-Free Solid-State Batteries with a Dry Compressible Interlayer

Anode-free lithium batteries offer promising advantages, including increased energy density and the ability to address common mechanistic failures within the cell, thus increasing safety. One way that can make this possible is to control lithium nucleation. This could be achieved by reducing the overpotential required and implanting lithophilic nucleation sites in an anodic interlayer to aid in lithium ion transport and plating. The concept has been utilized in solid-state battery systems where electrolytes are solids with further improved safety and structural longevity. In this presentation, we discuss the use of a silver-holey graphene-based anodic interlayer that can be fabricated via direct dry compression without the use of solvent or binder. The addition of silver to the holey graphene matrix creates a route to lithium plating via a lower-energy intermediate. This idea is supported by the presence of a lithium-silver alloy that forms during the activation step. It is understood that the embedded silver acts as a nucleation site for lithium ions, thereby assisting in even plating. This control, combined with the added cushion of the holey graphene itself, can help reduce dendrite formation, ultimately increasing the safety and lifetime of the solid-state batteries.

Solid state batteries

Assessment of Aircraft Electric Engine Regulatory Special Conditions

This report provides a regulatory gap assessment of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Special Conditions (SC) for electric engines. This information is presented to support ongoing international harmonization efforts for electric engine certification, to establish a level of safety consistent across regulatory bodies and equivalent to that of existing combustion engines. HS Advanced Concepts LLC assembled a team of subject-matter experts to develop a comprehensive comparison of the regulatory text of EASA SC E-19 and the FAA special conditions for the certification of electric engines. The team included Mr. Chris Baczynski of BAC Aerospace Inc. and Mr. Zach Kaufman, formerly with magniX.

aircraft certification

Material Compatibility Testing of Green Hydrazine

Green Hydrazine Propellant Blend (GHPB) is a new green propellant developed by Aerojet Rocketdyne and selected for continued testing at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). It primarily differs from previous "green” propellants by maintaining traditional hydrazine as the base constituent, along with additives that are intended to increase handling safety by lowering the concentration of hydrazine in the vapor. GSFC has performed material compatibility testing. The scope of this campaign included materials that are common in spacecraft or ground support equipment (GSE), and also included typical safety materials (e.g. permeation rates through gloves). The conclusion in a broad sense is that GHPB is less reactive than hydrazine, including the absorption of metals into the propellant, as examined by Inductively-Coupled Plasma (ICP) analysis of metals uptake.

Eric H Cardiff

Simplified Aid for Extra-Vehicular Activity Rescue (SAFER) Battery Assessment

In 2013, the Boeing Company model 787-8 Dreamliner commercial aircraft experienced three catastrophic lithium (Li) battery failures. The cause of each failure resulted in a single-cell thermal runaway (TR) condition, which propagated to adjacent battery cells. Two of the failures involved rechargeable lithium-ion (Li-Ion) batteries, and the third event involved a nonrechargeable lithium-manganese dioxide (Li-MnO2) battery. In response to these Li battery failures, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) approved a technical assessment of the International Space Station Simplified Aid for Extra-Vehicular Activity Rescue (SAFER) Li non-rechargeable battery. This assessment was conducted to evaluate the SAFER Li nonrechargeable battery safety design features against Boeing 787 Dreamliner Li battery failure lessons learned. Specifically, this investigation focused on assessing the severity of a SAFER battery TR hazard conditions.

Iannello, Christopher J.

Ultraviolet-Excimer Laser-Based Incoherent Doppler Lidar System

The topics covered include the following: principles of Doppler measurements, laser backscatter, eye safety, demonstration concepts, the wavelength-meter, the interferometer detector, return signal model, and comparison of incoherent and coherent lidars.

I Stuart McDermid