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NASA NTRS1984

Predictability experiments using a low order empirically corrected dynamical model

It is generally accepted that day to day weather variations possess a finite range of predictability estimated to be approximately two weeks (e.g., Lorenz, 1965). However, considerable observational evidence points to the existence of a number of low frequency flow regimes which are potentially predictable beyond this limit. These include blocking events and teleconnection patterns such as those described in Wallace and Gutzler (1981). The problem of the predictability of such modes is addressed by employing a highly simplified dynamical model projected onto the modes of interest. These modes are computed from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of 10-day averaged anomalies (deviations from the mean seasonal cycle) of the 500 mb stream function for the winters of 1967-76. The first three EOF's are associated with an index cycle and some of the teleconnection patterns. The fourth and ninth are related to North Pacific and North Atlantic blocking, respectively.

Schubert, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Influence of Synoptic Scales on Low-frequency Modes of Variability

Model analysis and predictablity studies using an equivalent barotropic empirical orthogonal function (EOF) model described in Schubert (1984b) are dicussed. An extensive set of 10-day forecasts was produced for the 12 component version of the model. Comparisons with observed data show apparently useful forecasts for individual winters. However, when averaged over 10 winters, the improvement over persistence was marginal and only one of the EOF's (resembling North Atlantic blocking) showed a statistically significant improvement. These results suggest the need for a more realistic model which includes shorter time scale baroclinic processes and spatial modes capable of efficiently representing the characteristic structures associated with baroclinic instability.

Schubert, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Application of large eddy interaction model to channel flow

A procedure utilizing an expansion of proper orthogonal functions (or modes) to predict a fully developed flow in channel is derived. To examine numerical and conceptual difficulties, preliminary computations are performed with assigned mean velocity, and turbulence is expressed with only the first mode. The nonlinear interactions of the components of the first mode are treated specifically, with the influence of higher modes neglected; this treatment required adjustment of the skewness and effective Reynolds number to assure energy equilibrium of the first mode. Computational results show that the first mode possesses the structural character similar to that of the entire flow.

Hong, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1984

On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

Kidder, S. Q.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A statistical-dynamical study of empirically determined modes of atmospheric variability

The observed wintertime intraseasonal variability of the northern hemisphere midtropospheric circulation is analyzed within the framework of an equivalent barotropic model. The data set and the form of the eigenvalue/vector problem in the wave domain are described, and the statistical significance of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is discussed, and some selected modes are briefly described. The anomaly model and the transformation to the EOF domain are presented together with a discussion of the model coefficients and forcing term. The fitting procedure for the parameterized terms are described and the level of correspondence between the modelled and observed streamfunction tendencies as a function of the EOFs is examined. The stability of the time mean flow and other base states is investigated.

Schubert, S. D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Subseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation

It was found that during the northern winter, fluctuation in tropical convection is dominated by eastware propagating cloud clusters from the Indian Ocean. Most of these clusters reach as far as the central Pacific. Longitude time sections of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomaly along the equator show that there are about 3 to 4 such episodes each winter. Also, simultaneous OLR anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) and the maritime continent (MC) are negatively correlated and their variations are dominated by a 40 to 60 day period, suggesting the presence of a standing wave phenomenon. Such combination of propagating and standing phenomena can be captured by the extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis. The EEOF method combines the temporal as well as the spatial correlation information to produce eigenmodes which have space time dependence. A 5 day and a 10 day lag in addition to the simultaneous spatial correlation is used.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern winter as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation

One-point correlation statistics and extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are used to show the existence of a principal mode of oscillation in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of tropical convection. The data analyzed were derived from NOAA Outgoing Longwave Radiation data covering seven 6 mo periods from 1974-83. The data is filtered to remove fluctuations on time scales under 5 days and by subtracting a least-squares parabola to eliminate seasonal means. The previously-known 40-50 day oscillation is found to be the most prevalent component of the ISV of tropical convection. An E-W dipole forms and propagates over the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial Indian Ocean, then stalls and intensifies over Indonesia and the equatorial central Pacific. Various anomalies generated in association with the dipole and dependent on its exact location when stalled are discussed.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Mcguirk, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Application of a large-eddy interaction model to channel flow

Hong, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Statistics and dynamics of persistent anomalies

Persistent anomalies with recurrent spatial patterns play an important role in the atmosphere's low-frequency variability. A connection between statistical and dynamical methods of description and prediction of persistent anomalies is established by computing and analyzing the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in a simple deterministic model, on the one hand, and in Southern Hemisphere geopotential heights, on the other. The dynamical model is governed by the fully nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere, with simplified forcing, dissipation and topography. The Southern Hemisphere data consist in gridded daily maps of 500 mb heights from June 1972 to July 1983. Two types of persistent anomalies appear in this time series, both having a strong wavenumber-three component; they differ by the value of the constant phase of this wave and by the strength of the wavenumber-one component. The first two EOFs bear a striking resemblance to these two patterns. It is concluded that the dynamical interpretation of EOFs is their pointing from the time mean to the most populated regions of the system's phase space. Pursuing this interpretation, a Markov-chain formulation of transitions from one persistent anomaly regime to another is introduced, and the implications for long-range forecasting are discussed.

Mo, Kingtse C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

A modified cluster analysis method was developed to identify spatial patterns of planetary flow regimes, and to study transitions between them. This method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and second to Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500 mb data. The dynamical model is governed by the fully-nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere. Clusters of point in the model's phase space are associated with either a few persistent or with many transient events. Two stationary clusters have patterns similar to unstable stationary model solutions, zonal, or blocked. Transient clusters of wave trains serve as way stations between the stationary ones. For the NH data, cluster analysis was performed in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters are found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, and transient clusters in the bandpass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band three pairs of clusters determine, respectively, EOFs 1, 2, and 3. They exhibit well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data show strong bimodality. Clusters in the bandpass window show wave-train patterns in the two jet exit regions. They are related, as in the model, to transitions between stationary clusters.

Mo, Kingtse↗

NASA NTRS1988

Sub-Saharan rainfall anomalies and global sea-surface temperature relationships for the recent fifteen year (1970-1984) period

The results of this rainfall index-sea surface temperature (SST) correlation analysis suggest that interannual fluctuations in SST, which are dominated by El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have a significant influence on the oscillatory behavior of sub-Saharan rainfall anomalies. It is noted that the sub-Saharan rainfall correlates significantly with tropical Pacific as well as with Empirical Orthogonal Functions 1 (EOF1) of the Atlantic SST anomalies.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An investigation of the relationship between sub-Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures

The relationship between SST and rainfall index anomalies over sub-Saharan Africa for the 1970-1984 period is investigated. Results of an empirical orthogonal function analysis indicate that the most dominant eigenmode, EOF1, is characterized by warming over the central eastern Pacific, cooling over the eastern midlatitude Pacific, and warming over the entire Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. EOF1 is found to have statistically signifiant monthly correlations for the Sahel and Soudan regions, with the warm El Nino-like phases of SST EOF1 corresponding to drought conditions. These results suggest that the large-scale SST anomalies may be responsible for a large component of the observed vacillation of sub-Saharan rainfall.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection - A possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO?

Twelve-years of NOAA data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are used to trace intraseasonal variations of tropical convection by examining the spatial patterns of OLR variance in the 1-5 day, 20-70 day, and longer-than-180 day bands separately for the northern summer and winter. Based on these patterns, the relative importance of these bands are evaluated and the natural variability of the climate signal and the geographical distribution of potential predictability is assessed. The results of empirical orthogonal functional analyses show that multiple time scales exist in the most dominant patterns of tropical convection variation. These time scales can be identified with those of the 40-50-day oscillation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, and the annual cycle. Interpretation of the results in terms of possible interaction between these various time scales is presented.

Lau, Ka-Ming↗

NASA NTRS1988

Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

A modified cluster analysis method developed for the classification of quasi-stationary events into a few planetary flow regimes and for the examination of transitions between these regimes is described. The method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and then to a 500-mbar data set for Northern Hemisphere (NH), for which cluster analysis was carried out in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters were found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, while transient clusters were found in the band-pass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band, three pairs of clusters determined EOFs 1, 2, and 3, respectively; they exhibited well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American pattern, and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data exhibited strong bimodality.

Mo, Kingtse↗

NASA NTRS1988

An estimate of equatorial wave energy flux at 9- to 90-day periods in the Central Pacific

Deep fluctuations in current along the equator in the Central Pacific are dominated by coherent structures which correspond closely to narrow-band propagating equatorial waves. Currents were measured roughly at 1500 and 3000 m depths at five moorings between 144 and 148 deg W from January 1981 to March 1983, as part of the Pacific Equatorial Ocean Dynamics program. In each frequency band resolved, a single complex empirical orthogonal function accounts for half to three quarters of the observed variance in either zonal or meridional current. Dispersion for equatorial first meridional Rossby and Rossby gravity waves is consistent with the observed vertical-zonal coherence structure. The observations indicate that energy flux is westward and downward in long first meridional mode Rossby waves at periods 45 days and longer, and eastward and downward in short first meridional mode Rossby waves and Rossby-gravity waves at periods 30 days and shorter. A local minimum in energy flux occurs at periods corresponding to a maximum in upper-ocean meridional current energy contributed by tropical instability waves. Total vertical flux across the 9- to 90-day period range is 2.5 kW/m.

Eriksen, Charles C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Scales of North Atlantic wind stress curl determined from the comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set

Nineteen years of wind data over the North Atlantic are used to calculate a field of wind stress curl. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on this field, resulting in spatial patterns of wind stress curl and associated time series. A Monte Carlo technique is used to establish the statistical significance of each spatial pattern, and the associated time series are spectrally analyzed. The first four statistically significant EOF modes represent more than 50 percent of the curl variance, and the spatial patterns of curl associated with these modes exhibit the major elements of North Atlantic climatology. Most of the time series spectral variance is contained in annual and semiannual frequencies. The features observed include the individual annual variation of the subtropical high and the subpolar low, the annual oscillation of intensity between pressure centers, the influence of localized strong SST gradients and associated cyclogenesis regions, and the constant nature of the trades.

Ehret, Laura L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Geosat crossover analysis in the tropical Pacific. II - Verification analysis of altimetric sea level maps with expendable bathythermograph and island sea level data

Altimetric sea level time series for the tropical Pacific have been generated from the Geosat crossover differences during the classified era of the Geosat mission from April 1985 to September 1986. These are compared with the expendable bathythermograph (XBT)-derived dynamic height and island sea level observations, yielding good agreement. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis is also applied to the altimetric and XBT results. The analysis demonstrates the dominance of the annual signal in this relatively short time series and the westward propagation of major features away from the equator.

Tai, Chang-Kou↗