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At least 73 records · Page 4

Estimating Surface Solar Irradiance Using Meteosat-8 Satellite for India and Surrounding Regions (2017-2019)

Using the Physical Solar Model, Version 3 (PSM V3), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Solar Consulting Services—produced modeled surface solar irradiance based on Meteosat-8 satellite cloud information. PSM V3 implements a physics-based radiative transfer approach to model surface solar irradiance using cloud properties processed from raw satellite data and ancillary data such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, the modeled surface solar irradiance was validated using 10 high-quality ground measurement data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The modeled data showed good correlation with the ground measurement, and the overall uncertainty is less than 35% for all validation locations. Because of the satellite viewing geometry, the Indian and European locations demonstrated higher uncertainties than the African locations, where the Meteosat-8 satellite has a more nadir viewing geometry. Further, instruction on how to access the data is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Undersizing of aged African biomass burning aerosol by an ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer

The ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS) differs from most other optical particle spectrometers by using a high-power infrared (IR) laser to detect small particles and reduce the sizing ambiguity due to the non-monotonicity of scattering with particle size. During the NASA ORACLES project (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, the UHSAS clearly undersized particles in the biomass burning plume extending from southern Africa. Since the horizontal and vertical extent of the plume was vast, the NASA P-3B research aircraft often flew through a fairly uniform biomass burning plume for periods exceeding 30 min, sufficient time to explore the details of the UHSAS response by selecting single particle sizes with a differential mobility analyzer (DMA) and passing them to the UHSAS. This was essentially an in-flight calibration of the UHSAS using the particles of interest. Two modes of responses appeared. Most particles were undersized by moderate amounts, ranging from not at all for 70 nm aerosols to 15 % for 280 nm particles. Mie scattering calculations show that composition-dependent refractive index of the particles cannot explain the pattern. Heating of brown carbon or tarballs in the beam causing evaporation and shrinking of the particles is the most plausible explanation, though mis-sizing due to non-sphericity cannot be ruled out. A small fraction (10 %–30 %) of the particles were undersized by 25 % to 35 %. Those were apparently the particles containing refractory black carbon. Laboratory calibrations confirm that black carbon is drastically undersized by the UHSAS, because particles heat to their vaporization point and shrink. A simple empirical correction equation was implemented that dramatically improves agreement with DMA distributions between 100 and 500 nm. It raised the median particle diameter by 18 nm, from 163 to 181 nm, during the August 2017 deployment and by smaller amounts during deployments with less intense pollution. Calculated scattering from UHSAS size distributions increased by about 130 %, dramatically improving agreement with scattering measured by nephelometers. The correction is only valid in polluted instances; clean marine boundary layer and free troposphere aerosols behaved more like the calibration spheres. We were unable to directly test the correction between 500 and 1000 nm, though aerodynamic particle sizer (APS) data appear to show that the correction is poor at the largest diameters, which is no surprise as the composition of those particles is likely to be quite different than that of the accumulation mode. This adds to the evidence that UHSAS data must be treated cautiously whenever the aerosol may absorb infrared light. Similar corrections may be required whenever brown carbon aerosol is present.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Gas Bubbles From a Submarine Hydrocarbon Seep Within the Hydrate Stability Zone

We validate a new model for mass transfer and bubble transport for natural seeps on the continental margins using an integrated observation of a seep at 883 m in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In the model, mass transfer is assumed to transition from clean to dirty bubble mass transfer rates following a characteristic hydrate formation time that depends on the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate subcooling. We show that buoyancy-induced upwelling is negligible for the bubble stream. We initialize the model using precise data observed at the seafloor and validate the model results to optical and acoustic measurements within the bubble stream. The model accurately predicts the acoustic attenuation of the bubble flare by lateral spreading and bubble shrinkage throughout the water column. In conclusion, the model shows that up to 99.4% by mass of the released gases from this seep dissolves into the ocean within the hydrate stability zone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Quantifying CanESM5 and EAMv1 sensitivities to Mt. Pinatubo volcanic forcing for the CMIP6 historical experiment

Large volcanic eruptions reaching the stratosphere have caused marked perturbations to the global climate including cooling at the Earth's surface, changes in large-scale circulation and precipitation patterns and marked temporary reductions in global ocean heat content. Many studies have investigated these effects using climate models; however, uncertainties remain in the modelled response to these eruptions. This is due in part to the diversity of forcing datasets that are used to prescribe the distribution of stratospheric aerosols resulting from these volcanic eruptions, as well as uncertainties in optical property derivations from these datasets. To improve this situation for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a two-step process was undertaken. First, a combined stratospheric aerosol dataset, the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC; 1979–2016), was constructed. Next, GloSSAC, along with information from ice cores and Sun photometers, was used to generate aerosol distributions, characteristics and optical properties to construct a more consistent stratospheric aerosol forcing dataset for models participating in CMIP6. This “version 3” of the stratospheric aerosol forcing has been endorsed for use in all contributing CMIP6 simulations. Recent updates to the underlying GloSSAC from version 1 to version 1.1 affected the 1991–1994 period and necessitated an update to the stratospheric aerosol forcing from version 3 to version 4. As version 3 remains the official CMIP6 input, quantification of the impact on radiative forcing and climate is both relevant and timely for interpreting results from experiments such as the CMIP6 historical simulations. This study uses two models, the Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1), to estimate the difference in instantaneous radiative forcing in simulated post-Pinatubo climate response when using version 4 instead of version 3. Differences in temperature, precipitation and radiative forcings are generally found to be small compared to internal variability. An exception to this is differences in monthly temperature anomalies near 24 km altitude in the tropics, which can be as large as 3 °C following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying the impacts of marine aerosols over the southeast Atlantic Ocean using a chemical transport model: implications for aerosol–cloud interactions

The southeast Atlantic region, characterized by persistent stratocumulus clouds, has one of the highest uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and significant variability across climate models. In this study, we analyze the seasonally varying role of marine aerosol sources and identify key uncertainties in aerosol composition at cloud-relevant altitudes over the southeast Atlantic using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We evaluate simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and speciated aerosol concentrations against those collected from ground observations and aircraft campaigns such as LASIC, ORACLES, and CLARIFY, conducted during 2017. The model consistently underestimates AOD relative to AERONET, particularly at remote locations like Ascension Island. However, when compared with aerosol mass concentrations from aircraft campaigns during the biomass burning period, it performs adequately at cloud-relevant altitudes, with a normalized mean bias (NMB) between -3.5 % (CLARIFY) and -7.5 % (ORACLES). At these altitudes, in the model, organic aerosols (63 %) dominate during the biomass burning period, while sulfate (41 %) prevails during austral summer, when dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions peak in the model. Our findings indicate that marine sulfate can account for up to 69 % of total sulfate during the high-DMS period. Sensitivity analyses indicate that refining DMS emissions and oxidation chemistry may increase sulfate aerosol produced from marine sources, highlighting that there remains large uncertainty as to the role of DMS emissions in the marine boundary layer. Additionally, we find marine primary organic aerosol emissions may substantially increase total organic aerosol concentrations, particularly during austral summer. This study underscores the imperative need to refine marine emissions and their chemical transformations, as aerosols from marine sources are a major component of total aerosols at cloud-relevant altitudes and may impact uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing over the southeast Atlantic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical Performance and Cost Optimization of Unobtrusive Multi-static Serial LiDAR Imager (UMSLI) for Wide-area Surveillance and Identification of Marine Life at Marine Energy Installations

Florida Atlantic University developed an underwater optical monitoring system prototype - Unobtrusive Multi-static Serial LiDAR Imager (UMSLI) - suitable for marine energy full project lifecycle observation (baseline, commissioning, and decommissioning), with an automated real-time classification of marine animals. With precursor 2014 DOE funding (award DE-EE0006787), a prototype UMSLI was demonstrated in a controlled laboratory environment and achieved a TRL 6. This EERE DE-EE0007828 award aimed to both increase the TRL of the UMSLI by improving the technology performance (e.g., increase distance of marine animal target detection capability, add additional species classification capabilities, improve the system performance during the day, etc.) and reduce the cost. The UMSLI presents a novel application of underwater distributed Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), an advanced remote sensing method that uses light in the form of laser pulses for an application, this paired with an algorithm provides 360 degrees underwater detection, imaging, and classification of marine life. This solution for underwater monitoring of biota preserves the advantages of traditional optical and acoustic solutions while overcoming many associated disadvantages for marine energy site environmental monitoring, such as difficulties in species detection and classification in low light or night and turbid environments. This new approach is a purposefully designed, reconfigurable adaptation of an existing class 3B laser technology into one UMSLI instrument that can be easily mounted on or around different classes of marine energy equipment, such as devices to capture ocean current energy or wave energy. The system uses relatively low average power, utilizes far-red (> 635nm) laser illumination to be invisible and eye-safe to marine animals, is compact, and cost-effective. The equipment is designed for long-term, maintenance-free operations (i.e., current design is targeting more than 7 days continuous operation), to inherently generate a sparse primary dataset that only includes detected anomalies, and to allow robust real-time automated animal classification and identification with a low data bandwidth requirement. The technology’s overarching goal for application, is a system that can be deployed to collect pre-installation baseline species observations at a proposed marine energy deployment site with minimal post-processing overhead. The envisioned system will also produce high-resolution imagery of marine animals through a wide range of conditions and support automated tracking and notification of the presence of managed animals within established perimeters of marine energy equipment to satisfy deployed marine energy projects’ endangered and threatened species monitoring requirements. Through the current project, we demonstrated the UMSLI prototype in an operational environment and increased the UMSLI’s Technology Readiness Level from 6 to 7. The project resulted in many novel technologies, including: 1) an eye-safe red laser based, low-cost LiDAR system that can detect targets up to 10 meters distance; 2) the GAN-based machine learning underwater LiDAR image enhancement technique (this is the first known application of GAN technique in underwater LiDAR); 3) LiDAR-based real-time automated detection capabilities; and 4) a template matching based automated classification tool. These technologies build a solid foundation for future efforts to develop an extended range electro-optical monitoring system suitable for marine energy deployments. In addition to technology development, a key lesson learned is that addressing regulatory and safety requirements must be front and center in any marine energy monitoring applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Observations of Ocean Surface Wave Attenuation in Sea Ice Using Seafloor Cables

Abstract The attenuation of ocean surface waves during seasonal ice cover is an important control on the evolution of Arctic coastlines. The spatial and temporal variations in this process have been challenging to resolve with conventional sampling using sparse arrays of moorings or buoys. We demonstrate a novel method for persistent observation of wave‐ice interactions using distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) along existing seafloor fiber optic telecommunications cables. DAS measurements span a 36‐km cross‐shore cable on the Beaufort Shelf from Oliktok Point, Alaska. DAS optical sensing of fiber strain‐rate provides a proxy for seafloor pressure, which we calibrate with wave buoy measurements during the ice‐free season (August 2022). We apply this calibration during the ice formation season (November 2021) to obtain unprecedented resolution of variable wave attenuation rates in new, partial ice cover. The location and strength of wave attenuation serve as proxies for ice coverage and thickness, especially during rapidly evolving events.

Smith, Madison M.↗

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Burning conditions and transportation pathways determine biomass-burning aerosol properties in the Ascension Island marine boundary layer

Abstract. African biomass-burning aerosol (BBA) in the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) marine boundary layer (MBL) is an important contributor to Earth's radiation budget, yet its representation remains poorly constrained in regional and global climate models. Data from the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field campaign on Ascension Island (7.95° S, 14.36° W) provide insight into how burning conditions, fuel type, transport pathways, and atmospheric processing affect the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of BBA between June and September 2017. A total of 10 individual plume events characterize the seasonal evolution of the BBA properties. Early-season inefficient fires, determined by low refractory black carbon to above-background carbon monoxide mixing ratios (rBC : ΔCO), led to enhanced concentrations of organic- and sulfate-rich aerosols. Mid-season efficient fires, determined by higher rBC : ΔCO values, led to rBC-enriched BBA. A mix of efficient and inefficient fires later in the season resulted in conflicting BBA properties. Prolonged transport (∼ 10 d) through the MBL and lower free troposphere (FT) facilitated chemical and aqueous-phase processing, which led to a reduction in organic aerosol mass concentrations. This resulted in lower organic aerosol (OA) to rBC (OA : rBC) mass ratios (2–5) in the MBL compared to higher values (5–15) in the nearby FT. These atmospheric and cloud oxidation processes yield more light-absorbing BBA and explain the notably low single-scattering albedo at 530 nm (SSA530) values (< 0.80) observed in the MBL. This study establishes a robust correlation between SSA530 and OA : rBC across the MBL and FT, underscoring the dependency of optical properties on chemical composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Feasibility Study of Spectrophotometry to Support a Promethium Production Program at ORNL

Optical spectroscopy can be used to optimize analytical measurements for lanthanide elements and provide real-time feedback to help guide production operations. This study evaluates spectrophotometry for the determination of samarium (Sm 3+ ) and neodymium (Nd 3+ ) in aqueous and organic solutions at concentrations relevant to a promethium (Pm) program separation scheme. Detection limits approached 0.5 mM for Nd 3+ and 2 mM for Sm 3+ using Ocean Insight spectrophotometers. Additionally, Sm 3+ detection limits using laser fluorescence spectra for Sm 3+ approached single ppm (mg∙L -1 ) levels. An absorption spectrum containing Nd and Pm is also reported and discussed. This work demonstrates proofof-principle concepts for applying spectrophotometry to online monitoring applications in support of a future Pm production program.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Burning conditions and transportation pathways determine biomass-burning aerosol properties in the Ascension Island marine boundary layer

African biomass-burning aerosol (BBA) in the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) marine boundary layer (MBL) is an important contributor to Earth’s radiation budget yet its representation remains poorly constrained in regional and global climate models. Data from the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field campaign on Ascension Island (-7.95° N, -14.36° E) detail how fire source regions (burning conditions and fuel type), transport pathways, and longer-term chemical processing affect the chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of the BBA in the remote MBL between June and September of 2017. Ten individual plume events characterize the seasonal evolution of BBA characteristics. Inefficient burning conditions, determined by the mass ratio of refractory black carbon to above-background carbon monoxide (rBC:ΔCO), enhance organic- and sulfate-rich aerosol concentrations in June–July. In contrast, the heart of the burning season exhibited higher rBC:ΔCO values indicative of efficient burning conditions, correlating with more rBC-enriched BBA. Toward the end of the burning season, a mix of burning conditions results in increased variation of the BBA properties. The BBA transit to Ascension Island was predominantly through slow-moving pathways in the MBL and lower free troposphere (FT), facilitating prolonged chemical transformations through heterogeneous and aqueous phase processes. Heterogeneous oxidation can persist for up to 10 days, resulting in a considerable decrease in organic aerosol (OA) mass. OA to rBC mass ratios (OA:rBC) in the MBL between 2 and 5 contrast to higher values of 5 to 15 observed in the nearby FT. Conversely, early-season aqueous-phase processes primarily contributed to aerosol oxidation and some aerosol production, but not appreciable aerosol removal. These two chemical processes yield more light-absorbing BBA in the MBL than in the FT and explain the notably low scattering albedo at 530 nm (SSA 530 ) values (< 0.80) at Ascension Island. This study establishes a robust correlation between SSA 530 and OA:rBC across both MBL and FT, underscoring the dependency of optical properties on chemical composition. These findings highlight how the interplay between chemical composition and atmospheric processing can be improved in global and regional climate models. Questions remain on the mixing of aerosols with different pathway histories, and on what accounts for the doubling of the mass absorption coefficient in the boundary layer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Clouds Using Satellite Observations Through Three Generations of Global Atmosphere Models

Abstract Clouds are parameterized in climate models using quantities on the model grid‐scale to approximate the cloud cover and impact on radiation. Because of the complexity of processes involved with clouds, these parameterizations are one of the key challenges in climate modeling. Differences in parameterizations of clouds are among the main contributors to the spread in climate sensitivity across models. In this work, the clouds in three generations of an atmosphere model lineage are evaluated against satellite observations. Satellite simulators are used within the model to provide an appropriate comparison with individual satellite products. In some respects, especially the top‐of‐atmosphere cloud radiative effect, the models show generational improvements. The most recent generation, represented by two distinct branches of development, exhibits some regional regressions in the cloud representation; in particular the southern ocean shows a positive bias in cloud cover. The two branches of model development show how choices during model development, both structural and parametric, lead to different cloud climatologies. Several evaluation strategies are used to quantify the spatial errors in terms of the large‐scale circulation and the cloud structure. The Earth mover's distance is proposed as a useful error metric for the passive satellite data products that provide cloud‐top pressure‐optical depth histograms. The cloud errors identified here may contribute to the high climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 and in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking Hydrology and Dissolved Organic Matter Characteristics in a Subtropical Wetland: A Long-Term Study of the Florida Everglades

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) acts as an important biogeochemical component of aquatic ecosystems that controls nutrient cycling, influences water quality, and links terrestrial and oceanic carbon pools, yet long-term studies of how changing environmental drivers alter its abundance and composition are rare. Using a ten-year, spatially explicit dataset from Everglades National Park (ENP), a globally significant wetland, we investigated the relationships between DOM quality/quantity and hydrologic/climatic drivers along two contrasting marsh-estuarine transects based on generalized linear modeling and a cumulative sums analysis. Analyses revealed distinct spatial, seasonal, and interannual patterns in variability of DOC and optical properties. Landscape-scale seasonal patterns showed an enrichment in microbial-like and protein-like DOM during the dry season relative to the wet season. We found that, while some compositional constituents varied with the solar calendar, responsive to temperature and photoperiod, others varied with the hydrologic calendar. Independent water level and discharge effects indicated strong hydrologic control on DOM quality that differed between the two transects, evidencing differences in their connectivity to areas of high agricultural activity. Across all sites, a significant long-term increasing trend in the fluorescence index was observed, associated with a positive correlation with precipitation and also potential changes in agricultural inputs, with other features associated with drought and hurricanes. Lastly, the cumulative sums analysis revealed differences between the two transects in the sensitivity of DOM composition to decreased water levels associated with 30-year climate scenarios, with the less hydrologically dynamic transect exhibiting greater potential sensitivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AICCA: AI-Driven Cloud Classification Atlas

Clouds play an important role in the Earth’s energy budget, and their behavior is one of the largest uncertainties in future climate projections. Satellite observations should help in understanding cloud responses, but decades and petabytes of multispectral cloud imagery have to date received only limited use. This study describes a new analysis approach that reduces the dimensionality of satellite cloud observations by grouping them via a novel automated, unsupervised cloud classification technique based on a convolutional autoencoder, an artificial intelligence (AI) method good at identifying patterns in spatial data. Our technique combines a rotation-invariant autoencoder and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to generate cloud clusters that capture meaningful distinctions among cloud textures, using only raw multispectral imagery as input. Cloud classes are therefore defined based on spectral properties and spatial textures without reliance on location, time/season, derived physical properties, or pre-designated class definitions. We use this approach to generate a unique new cloud dataset, the AI-driven cloud classification atlas (AICCA), which clusters 22 years of ocean images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua and Terra instruments—198 million patches, each roughly 100 km × 100 km (128 × 128 pixels)—into 42 AI-generated cloud classes, a number determined via a newly-developed stability protocol that we use to maximize richness of information while ensuring stable groupings of patches. AICCA thereby translates 801 TB of satellite images into 54.2 GB of class labels and cloud top and optical properties, a reduction by a factor of 15,000. The 42 AICCA classes produce meaningful spatio-temporal and physical distinctions and capture a greater variety of cloud types than do the nine International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) categories—for example, multiple textures in the stratocumulus decks along the West coasts of North and South America. We conclude that our methodology has explanatory power, capturing regionally unique cloud classes and providing rich but tractable information for global analysis. AICCA delivers the information from multi-spectral images in a compact form, enables data-driven diagnosis of patterns of cloud organization, provides insight into cloud evolution on timescales of hours to decades, and helps democratize climate research by facilitating access to core data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chemical Composition and Mixing State of Wintertime Aerosol from the European Arctic Site of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

The Arctic is rapidly warming, and aerosols play an increasingly important role by scattering and absorbing sunlight and by participating in cloud formation. Their optical and cloud-forming properties depend on the mixing state and chemical composition, but observations of these features remain limited. This study comprehensively characterizes 25,254 individual particles collected at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (November −December 2020), using microspectroscopy techniques to investigate their size, morphology, mixing state, and chemical composition. Fresh sea salt aerosols (SSA) were identified as the most abundant (∼85%), of the total observed aerosol population, with potential sources from sea spray and blowing snow. Air masses originating from the Arctic Ocean surrounding Svalbard likely contribute to increased concentrations of sub-micrometer “Fresh SSA” particles. “Aged SSA” particles (7.4%) are enriched in sulfur and nitrogen, compared to “Fresh SSA”. These elevated ratios may result from various atmospheric aging processes including the uptake of sulfuric and nitric acids. Here, our results suggest that aged SSA, with sizes larger than 300 nm, likely underwent chlorine depletion by sulfuric and nitric acids during transport. Additionally, elemental analysis reveals that both fresh and aged SSA can mix with dust particles, regardless of the SSA size (49.9% in sub-micrometer size and 50.1% in super-micrometer size, respectively). Dust particles are efficient ice-nucleating particles (INPs), and SSA is known to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and therefore, their mixtures may inherit both properties. The non-negligible number (4.4%) of SSA-dust mixtures underscores the importance of these particles as potential sources of CCN and INP in the Arctic atmosphere.

Arctic↗

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗