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Precipitation Recycling and the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

Precipitation recycling is defined as the amount of water that evaporates from a region that precipitates within the same region. This is also interpreted as the local source of water for precipitation. In this study, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation have been diagnosed through the use of passive constituent tracers that represent regional evaporative sources along with their transport and precipitation. We will discuss the differences between this method and the simpler bulk diagnostic approach to precipitation recycling. A summer seasonal simulation has been analyzed for the regional sources of the United States Great Plains precipitation. While the tropical Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf of Mexico) and the local continental sources of precipitation are most dominant, the vertically integrated column of water contains substantial water content originating from the Northern Pacific Ocean, which is not precipitated. The vertical profiles of regional water sources indicate that local Great Plains source of water dominates the lower troposphere, predominantly in the PBL. However, the Pacific Ocean source is dominant over a large portion of the middle to upper troposphere. The influence of the tropical Atlantic Ocean is reasonably uniform throughout the column. While the results are not unexpected given the formulation of the model's convective parameterization, the analysis provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of local evaporation on the occurrence of convective precipitation in the GCM. Further, these results suggest that local source of water is not well mixed throughout the vertical column.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations: TOA Radiation Budget and CREs - Part 2

In Part I of this study, the NASA GISS Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and post-CMIP5 (herein called C5 and P5, respectively) simulated cloud properties were assessed utilizing multiple satellite observations, with a particular focus on the southern midlatitudes (SMLs). This study applies the knowledge gained from Part I of this series to evaluate the modeled TOA radiation budgets and cloud radiative effects (CREs) globally using CERES EBAF (CE) satellite observations and the impact of regional cloud properties and water vapor on the TOA radiation budgets. Comparisons revealed that the P5- and C5-simulated global means of clear-sky and all-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) match well with CE observations, while biases are observed regionally. Negative biases are found in both P5- and C5-simulated clear-sky OLR. P5-simulated all-sky albedo slightly increased over the SMLs due to the increase in low-level cloud fraction from the new planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Shortwave, longwave, and net CRE are quantitatively analyzed as well. Regions of strong large-scale atmospheric upwelling/downwelling motion are also defined to compare regional differences across multiple cloud and radiative variables. In general, the P5 and C5 simulations agree with the observations better over the downwelling regime than over the upwelling regime. Comparing the results herein with the cloud property comparisons presented in Part I, the modeled TOA radiation budgets and CREs agree well with the CE observations. These results, combined with results in Part I, have quantitatively estimated how much improvement is found in the P5-simulated cloud and radiative properties, particularly over the SMLs and tropics, due to the implementation of the new PBL and convection schemes.

Model comparison↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Cohen, Charlie↗

The importance of mesoscale circulations generated by subgrid-scale landscape heterogeneities in general circulation models

A mesoscale atmospheric model was used to evaluate the impact of subgrid-scale landscape discontinuities on the vertical profiles of resolved temperature, moisture, and moist static energy in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of general circulation models (GCMs). These profiles were produced with a 3D version of the model (using a horizontal grid resolution of 7.5 km and 13 vertical layers in the PBL) by averaging horizontally the various atmospheric variables over a 180 x 180 sq km domain-about the size of the horizontal domain represented by a single grid element in a GCM. They were compared to corresponding vertical profiles produced with a 1D version of the model, which simulates the PBL, as in a GCM, over a single horizontal grid element. Differences obtained between the horizontally averaged atmospheric variables produced with the 3D simulations and the 1D simulations emphasize the impact of subgrid-scale landscape discontinuities on GCM-resolved variables. Various types of landscape discontinuities, characterized by horizontal contrasts of surface wetness and size of land patches, were simulated under various background-wind conditions. Differences of temperature, specific humidity, and moist static energy as large as 4 K, 6 g/kg, and 10 kJ/kg were obtained in some cases. These differences were not affected significantly by moderate winds but were sensitive to the spatial distribution of surface wetness. These results emphasize the need to parameterize mesoscale processes induced by landscape discontinuities in GCMss.

Lynn, Barry H.↗

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗

Quantifying VOC-Reaction Tracers, Ozone Production, and Continuing Aerosol Production Rates in Urban and Far-Downwind Atmospheres

We have found a surprisingly informative decomposition of the complex question of smoggy ozone production (basically, [HO2] in a more locally determined field of [NO]) in the process of linked investigations of modestly smoggy Eastern North America (by NASA aircraft, July 2004) and rather polluted Flushing, NYC (Queens College, July, 2001). In both rural and very polluted situations, we find that a simple contour graph parameterization of the local principal ozone production rate can be estimated using only the variables [NO] and j(sub rads) [HCHO]: Po(O3) = c (j(sub rads) [HCHO])(sup a) [HCHO](sup b). Here j(sub rads) is the photolysis of HCHO to radicals, presumably capturing many harder-UV photolytic processes and the principle ozone production is that due to HO2; mechanisms suggest that ozone production due to RO2 is closely correlated, often suggesting a limited range of different proportionality factors. The method immediately suggests a local interpretation for concepts of VOC limitation and NOx limitation. We believe that the product j(sub rads) [HCHO] guages the oxidation rate of observed VOC mixtures in a way that also provides [HO2] useful for the principle ozone production rate k [HO2] [NO], and indeed, all ozone chemical production. The success of the method suggests that dominant urban primary-HCHO sources may transition to secondary plume-HCHO sources in a convenient way. Are there other, simple, near-terminal oxidized VOC's which help guage ozone production and aerosol particle formation? Regarding particles, we report on, to the extent NASA Research resources allow, on appealing relationships between far-downwind (Atlantic PBL) HCHO and very fine aerosol (including sulfate. Since j(sub rads) [HCHO] provides a time-scale, we may understand distant-plume particle production in a more quantitative manner. Additionally we report on a statistical search in the nearer field for relationships between glyoxals (important near-terminal aromatic and isoprene reaction products) and aerosol production, looking for VOC's that might be most implicated. All three variables j(sub rads), [HCHO], and [NO] are relatively easily measured in widespread air pollution monitoring networks, and all are deducible form space-borne observations, though estimation of [NO] from [NO2] (the species observable from space) may require care. We report also on airborne and surface observations of HCHO, suggesting that concentrated (urban) and more diffuse (forest) sources may be distinguishable from space. The use of the 3.58 micron microwindow for HCHO remote sensing should allow much sharper resolution of HCHO than the UV. UV sensing requires large and expensive instruments, but even these seem justified since formaldehyde is so informative.

Chatfield, Robert↗

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Lynn, Barry H.↗