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DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Oblique Decision Tree Enabled Policy Extraction for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Power System Emergency Control

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have successfully solved many challenging problems in various power system control scenarios. However, their decision-making process is usually regarded as black-boxes. Furthermore, how DRL models interact with human intelligence remains an open problem. Thus, this paper proposes a policy extraction framework to extract a complex DRL model into an explainable policy. This framework includes three parts: 1) DRL training and data generation. We train an agent for a specific control task and generate data, which contains the control policy of the agent. 2) Policy extraction. We propose an information gain rate based weighted oblique decision tree (IGR-WODT) for DRL policy extraction. 3) Policy evaluation. We define three metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. A case study for the under-voltage load shedding problem shows that the IGR-WODT presents a performance enhancement compared with DRL, weighted oblique decision tree, and univariate decision tree. The proposed policy extraction method could provide an intuitive explanation of the neural network decision-making process to the dispatchers when making final decisions on power grid operation. Also, the resulted rule-based controller could replace the deep neural network-based controller in many field edge devices with limited computing resources, providing comparable performance.

deep reinforcement learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Policy Framework to Improve Mobility Efficiency and Electrify Transportation in Tonga

The Kingdom of Tonga, like many small island developing states, is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels to meet its current energy needs, especially for transportation. The Kingdom has requested a policy framework that benefits its land transportation sector by saving cost and time, increasing resilience, and reducing petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This framework was developed by building on past work, namely the Tonga Energy Efficiency Master Plan 2020-2030 (TEEMP), the Tonga Energy Road Map 2021-2035 (TERMPLUS), and the Regional Electric Mobility Policy for Pacific Island Countries and Territories developed by the Pacific Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (PCREEE). The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to Tonga's land transportation system were identified at stakeholder working group meetings in Tonga in June 2023. A set of appropriate policies that have been effective in relevant jurisdictions were then discussed and refined by the working group. The resulting 27 policies are defined according to intended outcomes, relationship to other proposed policies, applications in other relevant jurisdictions, hurdles to implementation, resilience impact, equity impact, and government revenue impact. Some of the policies are also accompanied by implementation recommendations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Foreign and Domestic Policy to Determine a Pathway to Achieving the US' NDC with a Focus on Advanced Reactors and Hydrogen

The United states in 2021 released a nationally determined contribution indicating goals to reach 50-52% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 and to achieve zero carbon electricity by 2035. Current policy does not put us on course to achieve these goals, so we investigated policies that could form a pathway to achieve these goals in the US. We focused on the use of advanced nuclear reactors and hydrogen, but analyzed all relevant sectors to achieve our goals. This report also focuses on analyzing existing foreign policies and determining the most effective policies in each sectors. By combining the most effective policies from around the world in each sector, we find that we can set policies that form a pathway that is ambitious enough to meet the NDC goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Policy-relevant differences between secondhand and thirdhand smoke: strengthening protections from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants

Starting in the 1970s, individuals, businesses and the public have increasingly benefited from policies prohibiting smoking indoors, saving thousands of lives and billions of dollars in healthcare expenditures. Smokefree policies to protect against secondhand smoke exposure, however, do not fully protect the public from the persistent and toxic chemical residues from tobacco smoke (also known as thirdhand smoke) that linger in indoor environments for years after smoking stops. Nor do these policies address the economic costs that individuals, businesses and the public bear in their attempts to remediate this toxic residue. We discuss policy-relevant differences between secondhand smoke and thirdhand smoke exposure: persistent pollutant reservoirs, pollutant transport, routes of exposure, the time gap between initial cause and effect, and remediation and disposal. We examine four policy considerations to better protect the public from involuntary exposure to tobacco smoke pollutants from all sources. We call for (a) redefining smokefree as free of tobacco smoke pollutants from secondhandandthirdhand smoke; (b) eliminating exemptions to comprehensive smoking bans; (c) identifying indoor environments with significant thirdhand smoke reservoirs; and (d) remediating thirdhand smoke. We use the case of California as an example of how secondhand smoke-protective laws may be strengthened to encompass thirdhand smoke protections. The health risks and economic costs of thirdhand smoke require that smokefree policies, environmental protections, real estate and rental disclosure policies, tenant protections, and consumer protection laws be strengthened to ensure that the public is fully protected from and informed about the risks of thirdhand smoke exposure.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗

DOE OSTI2021

History of Ethanol Fuel Adoption in the United States: Policy, Economics, and Logistics

Ethanol has the achieved the greatest market share of all the alternative transportation fuels that have been researched, developed, and deployed in the US. There are multiple lessons to be learned from the history of ethanol adoption that can be applied to future fuels and products. Ethanol has replaced portions of gasoline in three main blend levels, with corresponding vehicles, equipment, benefits, and policies. The first is E10, which has replaced nearly all pure gasoline (E0) sold in the United States today (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2015). This was brought about through generations of policies that were motivated by multiple factors related to engine performance, energy security, health, air quality, and climate protection. Ethanol's high octane has been a consistent driver of the fuel because this enables higher performance engines. Early policies (1973-1979) were largely motivated by the desire to reduce dependence on petroleum sourced from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Fuel policy in the 1980s was largely in pursuit of promoting octane number enhancers that could replace lead. Criteria pollutant reduction was the overarching goal of actions taken from 1990 to 2005. From 2005 to the present, fuel policy has been largely motivated by energy security and climate protection goals. These policies were usually technology-agnostic and promoted multiple fuels and additives during each period. However, ethanol is the only fuel identified that is cost effective with qualities that enabled it to prosper in the policy environments of all four of these periods.The second market for ethanol is via 85% ethanol (E85). This fuel has the advantage of a greater concentration of ethanol but the disadvantage of not being compatible with regular gasoline vehicles. Instead, it can only be used in flexible-fuel vehicle (FFVs), which can use every blend level from E0 to E85. Therefore, much of the effort to increase E85 consumption has been aimed at incentivizing automakers to manufacture FFVs, drivers to purchase FFVs, and fueling stations to equip themselves to sell E85.The third, and newest, market through which ethanol is consumed is 15% ethanol (E15), which builds upon the E10 market to increase ethanol consumption by common gasoline vehicles. Efforts to create the E15 market consisted largely of testing vehicles and refueling equipment for compatibility, creating waivers to allow the use of E15, placing requirements on E15 retailers, and incentivizing retailers to equip themselves to purchase E15.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Research in geosciences policy

The general task was to look beyond the adverse physical impacts and to defining the policy problem. In order for policy actions to be effective, they must address the right policy problems, which will be different from and broader than the physical problems. We will work on defining the policy problems with a view to indicating how practical solutions might be implemented. In particular, public officials need advice on what should be said, and done, and for what purposes. That advice needs to be based on systematic analysis of: (1) the scholarly literature in the social sciences, and related disciplines; (2) the charging content of the policy debate at the center of attention; and (3) how citizens perceive and understand issues related to global change. We will conduct this analysis. Chapter 1 and 2 each reports work on defining the policy problem and analyzing the scholarly literature. Chapters 3 and 4, respectively, address the policy debate and citizen viewpoints in issues related to global change.

Brunner, Ronald D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Policy Process Editor for P3BM Software

A computer program enables generation, in the form of graphical representations of process flows with embedded natural-language policy statements, input to a suite of policy-, process-, and performance-based management (P3BM) software. This program (1) serves as an interface between users and the Hunter software, which translates the input into machine-readable form; and (2) enables users to initialize and monitor the policy-implementation process. This program provides an intuitive graphical interface for incorporating natural-language policy statements into business-process flow diagrams. Thus, the program enables users who dictate policies to intuitively embed their intended process flows as they state the policies, reducing the likelihood of errors and reducing the time between declaration and execution of policy.

James, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2011

Router Agent Technology for Policy-Based Network Management

This innovation can be run as a standalone network application on any computer in a networked environment. This design can be configured to control one or more routers (one instance per router), and can also be configured to listen to a policy server over the network to receive new policies based on the policy- based network management technology. The Router Agent Technology transforms the received policies into suitable Access Control List syntax for the routers it is configured to control. It commits the newly generated access control lists to the routers and provides feedback regarding any errors that were faced. The innovation also automatically generates a time-stamped log file regarding all updates to the router it is configured to control. This technology, once installed on a local network computer and started, is autonomous because it has the capability to keep listening to new policies from the policy server, transforming those policies to router-compliant access lists, and committing those access lists to a specified interface on the specified router on the network with any error feedback regarding commitment process. The stand-alone application is named RouterAgent and is currently realized as a fully functional (version 1) implementation for the Windows operating system and for CISCO routers.

Chow, Edward T.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Politics of problem definition: Comparing public support of climate change mitigation policies using machine learning

Public support is a key contributor to successful policy adoption and implementation. Given the urgency of climate change mitigation, scholars have explored various determinants that affect public support for climate change mitigation policy. However, the relative decisiveness of these factors in shaping public support is insufficiently examined. Therefore, we deploy interpretable machine learning to understand which factors, among many previously investigated, are most decisive for structuring public support for various climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we particularly look at the decisiveness of problem definition for shaping public support among various factors. Using U.S national survey data, we find that how individuals define the issue of climate change is more decisive for structuring public support for promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants to mitigate the risks associated with climate change. However, the results also indicate that the most decisive factors associated with public support vary depending on the types of mitigation policy. Here, we conclude that different strategies should be utilized to increase public support for various climate change mitigation policy options. Our findings contribute to a scholarly understanding of the specific politics of problem definition in the context of environmental and climate change policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy 2021: the Renewed Debate about Sole Purpose and No-First-Use. Annotated Bibliography

Declaratory policy and public statements about the potential use of nuclear weapons serve many important roles. They provide an assessment of the security environment, and inform the public debate. These statements also enhance deterrence messages and signals towards adversaries, and reassure allies and partners. On the global level, U.S. declaratory policy has the potential to shape international trends and norms, influence nuclear proliferation, and it may also affect the policy decisions of other nuclear possessors. As the Biden administration reviews the elements of U.S. nuclear declaratory policy, the issue of sole purpose and no-first-use is likely to resurface. Previous administrations have examined these policies in multiple rounds of review, and they decided that the time was not right for such declarations. This literature review was prepared to inform the debate by collecting some of the most prominent articles on the topic that highlight the potential risks and benefits of these policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Review of Clean Electricity Policies—From Countries to Utilities

Due to the heavy stress on environmental deterioration and the excessive consumption of fossil resources, the transition of global energy from fossil fuel energy to clean energy has significantly accelerated in recent years. The power industry and policymakers in almost all countries are focusing on clean energy development. Thanks to progressive clean energy policies, significant progress in clean energy integration and greenhouse gas reduction has been achieved around the world. However, due to the differences in economic structures, clean energy distributions, and development models, clean energy policy scope, focus, and coverage vary between different countries, states, and utilities. This paper aims at providing a policy review for readers to easily obtain clean energy policy information on various clean energies in the U.S. and some other countries. Firstly, this paper reviews and compares some countries’ clean energy policies on electricity. Then, taking the U.S. as an example, this paper introduces the clean energy policies of some representative states and utilities in the U.S in perspectives of renewable energies, electric vehicles, and energy storage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: Bangladesh

Bangladesh has experienced significant economic growth and poverty reduction over the past several decades. Recognizing the central role electricity plays in economic development, the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) has established policies to accelerate the growth of the electric power sector. The Bangladesh power grid is transforming into one marked by declining reliance on domestic natural gas reserves and oil-based rental power plants, increasing renewable energy contribution, and shifting demand patterns. The GOB is now reconsidering its prior plans to increase the share of coal capacity in the generation mix to meet demand, shifting its focus instead to electricity imports from neighboring countries, nuclear generation, liquified natural gas imports, and domestic renewable resources such as wind and solar. However, investments in the transmission and distribution system, as well as ancillary services, have not kept pace with investments in generation resources over the past decade. Thus, Bangladesh electricity consumers still experience outages and poor power quality despite adequate installed capacity. On the demand side, population growth and industrialization have fueled steady growth in electricity consumption as efforts to expand access to electricity enabled near-universal electricity access by mid-2020. The combined changes in the mix of generation resources and patterns of electricity demand present new challenges and opportunities in operating and maintaining a reliable power system. Energy storage has the potential to help meet these challenges and accelerate Bangladesh’s energy transition. Declining costs for some energy storage technologies make them increasingly cost-effective solutions to provide a wide range of grid services. Previous analyses of energy storage in the region have identified several potential applications for storage at the bulk system level, including energy arbitrage, ancillary services, and transmission network support. The potential for storage to meet these needs depends on many factors, including physical characteristics of the power system and the policy and regulatory environments in which these energy storage assets would operate. This report applies an Energy Storage Readiness Assessment the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed for policy makers and regulators to identify priority areas of focus as they continue to develop the appropriate suite of policies, programs, and regulations to enable storage deployment. This assessment uses a simple evaluation scheme to identify the barriers and opportunities for utility-scale energy storage within Bangladesh’s policy and regulatory environment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Staying cool: The development of India's pioneering energy efficiency policy for chillers

Abstract Chillers are the key energy‐consuming piece of equipment in most large space cooling systems. They can account for more than 40% of total energy consumption in any typical commercial building and in specific industrial building installations depending on the product and process. With climate change driving rapidly rising demand for commercial and industrial cooling, especially in emerging economies, energy efficiency policies for chillers are crucial to moderate future electricity demand and thereby minimize greenhouse gas emissions. However, most developing and emerging economies lack energy efficiency policies for this significant and growing cooling equipment sector. India recently announced new energy efficiency policies for chillers, projected to avoid 28 TWh of electricity consumption and 23 million tons of CO 2 emissions cumulatively through 2030. This article presents a case study of the unique challenges and solutions required to design a new energy efficiency policy for chillers in India. First, the energy consumed in chiller systems is sensitive to building occupancy, load changes, seasonal variations, operation and maintenance, and climatic conditions. In order to address these sensitivities, the chiller testing standard in India factors local weather and temperature conditions into energy performance ratings to account for these sensitivities. Further, every large chiller is a customized product, therefore developing a viable policy and implementation process required collaboration with international and national experts in standardization, manufacturers, building consultants, and testing laboratories. This article is categorized under: Energy Efficiency > Economics and Policy Solar Energy: Thermal ‐‐> Climate and Environment

Mukherjee, P. K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating policy interventions in the interfirm diffusion of low-carbon technologies: An agent-based evolutionary game model

Policy interventions are frequently used by authorities around the world to mitigate carbon emissions. However, economic systems are essentially complex adaptive systems, which often exhibit unexpected responses to exogenous interventions and leave intervenors in a dilemma, even if the interventions are elaborately designed. To explore the behaviors of the diffusion system regarding low-carbon technologies, this study builds an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate enterprises' reactions to multiple policy interventions aimed at spurring low-carbon technology diffusion. The simulated enterprises are in a complex network where they play evolutionary games with their neighbors, which enables the model to possess two critical features of economic systems: adaptiveness and equilibrium. The model reveals a dilemma of policy interventions: intuitively, carbon taxes, asymmetric penalties (only imposed on un-low-carbon enterprises) and subsidies can improve the diffusion, which is consistent with previous research; counter-intuitively, all these policies turn out to be inefficient or even harmful to low-carbon enterprises because of the diffusion system's high adaptiveness. Specifically, when carbon taxes and penalties increase, both the low-carbon and un-low-carbon enterprises end up with the equilibrium of equivalent but lower profits. In contrast, all the enterprises earn equivalent but more profits even though subsidies are only given to the low-carbon enterprises, which implies that the un-low-carbon enterprises (indirectly) grab a portion of the subsidies and accordingly weaken the incentive effect of subsidies. These system behaviors are summarized as "equalizing effect" because the system tends to equalize the impact of both positive and negative interventions among all enterprises even though the policy interventions are asymmetrically imposed on one type of the enterprises. The findings also indicate that policies implemented to enlarge green market sizes can help policymakers bypass the dilemma.

Agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supplementing biofuel mandates with a carbon mitigation policy can lead to water quality co-benefits

Biofuel mandates can impact the environment in multiple ways that may be positive or negative, including affecting life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing fossil fuels, affecting soil carbon stocks due to accompanying land use change, and water quality due to changes in fertilizer requirements and the mix of crops used as feedstocks. To achieve desired environmental outcomes in the presence of a biofuel mandate, additional policy instruments must be adopted to supplement the mandate. We develop an integrated and spatially explicit ecosystem-economic modeling framework to analyze the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies to achieve desired targets for GHG emissions reduction from the agricultural and fuel sectors in the USA and nitrate leaching reduction in the Gulf of Mexico below the levels that would be achieved by a corn ethanol and/or a cellulosic ethanol mandate in the USA. We find that while a corn ethanol mandate lowers GHG emissions, it increases nitrate leaching due to the expansion of corn production; a cellulosic ethanol mandate lowers both GHG emissions and nitrate leaching relative to a corn ethanol mandate, but the additional carbon and nitrate prices are needed to achieve anticipated GHG reduction and nitrate reduction targets. We also find that accompanying a biofuel mandate with a GHG reduction target alone leads to substantial nitrate reduction co-benefits, but a nitrate reduction target alone is less effective in reducing GHG emissions. Combining a GHG standard with a nitrate standard can achieve GHG and nitrate reduction targets at lower carbon and nitrate prices as compared to implementing each of these policies independently. Furthermore, our findings show that disregarding policy co-benefits can overestimate the GHG and nitrate prices needed to achieve policy targets and higher policy costs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗