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At least 73 records · Page 4

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DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling COVID-19 Impacts on Prison Population

The goal of this project was to develop a unique, high-level, concept model that will (1) help examine the consequences COVID-19 has had on prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois and (2) explore (to the extent possible) how that will unfold in the short- and mid-term future. Argonne has unique expertise in dynamic systems modeling and highly specialized simulation capabilities, which will be helpful in developing such a model. The ultimate objective of this CRADA is to develop with the Illinois Public Sentencing Policy Advisory Council (SPAC) the capability to identify and understand factors and interactions associated with prison population and flow dynamics in Illinois. This understanding will then potentially lead to improvements in the allocation of various resources and services. This approach would also be useful to other states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Electric Vehicle Adoption Among Disadvantaged Populations: A Case Study in LA

In the shift towards 100% carbon-free energy, ensuring equitable access to clean energy benefits is crucial. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in the personal light-duty vehicle segment, has gained traction, driven by various incentives at the federal, state, and local levels. However, disadvantaged populations face unique challenges in embracing EVs. This paper, using Los Angeles as a case study, explores EV adoption patterns among disadvantaged population groups in both a business-as-usual scenario and an equity scenario. Modeling reveals that by 2035, over half of EV owners will be from low- to middle income backgrounds with limited access to home charging. Strategies such as increasing incentives for used EV purchase from $2500 to $4000, targeted for disadvantaged communities, can boost EV adoption among low-middle income groups by 2%, while providing a $300 annual voucher to households using public charging can further facilitate equitable EV adoption.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plasma GFAP for populational enrichment of clinical trials in preclinical Alzheimer's disease

Abstract INTRODUCTION Cognitively unimpaired (CU) amyloid beta (Aβ)+ individuals with elevated plasma glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have an increased risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD)‐related progression. We tested the utility of plasma GFAP for population enrichment CU populations in clinical trials. METHODS We estimated longitudinal progression, effect size, and costs of hypothetical clinical trials designed to test an estimated 25% drug effect on reducing tau positron emission tomography (PET) accumulation in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and temporal neocortical region (NEO‐T). RESULTS CU GFAP+/Aβ+ individuals present an increased annual rate of change and effect size in tau PET MTL and tau PET NEO‐T compared to the other groups. An enrichment strategy selecting CU GFAP+/Aβ+ individuals would require a smaller sample size (≈ 57% reduction) and fewer Aβ PET scans (≈ 74% reduction) than trials enriched with Aβ PET alone, reducing total clinical trial costs by up to 64%. DISCUSSION Our results suggest that clinical trials focusing on preclinical AD recruiting Aβ+ individuals with elevated GFAP levels would improve cost effectiveness. Highlights Cognitively unimpaired (CU) glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)+/amyloid beta (Aβ)+ shows increased changes in tau positron emission tomography (PET) . CU GFAP+/Aβ+ enriched clinical trials require a reduced sample size compared to Aβ+ only. CU GFAP+/Aβ+ enrichment reduces Aβ PET scans required and costs. CU GFAP+/Aβ+ enrichment allows the selection of individuals at early stages of the Alzheimer's disease continuum.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Excited states in semi-magic 82 Ge populated in the βn-decay of 83 Ga

For this work, the βn and β-decay of the neutron-rich 83 Ga isotopes produced in proton-induced fission of 238 U were studied at the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility (HRIBF) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using on-line mass separation and the hybrid-3Hen neutron-γ detector array. Excited states in semi-magic 82 Ge populated in βn decay of 83 Ga were identified using neutron-γ coincidences. The measured relative population of excited states in 82 Ge is compared with a βn emission model, where the neutron emission model combines the strength distribution obtained from the shell-model calculations with the statistical Hauser-Feshbach model.

3HEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wildfires increasingly threaten oil and gas wells in the western United States with disproportionate impacts on marginalized populations

The western United States is home to most of the nation’s oil and gas production and, increasingly, wildfires. Here, we examined historical threats of wildfires for oil and gas wells, the extent to which wildfires are projected to threaten wells as climate change progresses, and exposure of human populations to these wells. From 1984 to 2019, we found that, cumulatively, 102,882 wells were located in wildfire burn areas, and 348,853 people were exposed (resided within ≤ 1 km). During this period, we observed a 5-fold increase in the number of wells in wildfire burn areas and a doubling of the population within 1 km of these wells. These trends are projected to increase by late century, likely threatening human health. Approximately 2.9 million people reside within 1 km of wells in areas with high wildfire risk, and Black, Hispanic, and Native American people have disproportionately high exposure to wildfire-threatened wells.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Population-level control of two manganese oxidases expands the niche for bacterial manganese biomineralization

Abstract The enzymatic oxidation of aqueous divalent manganese (Mn) is a widespread microbial trait that produces reactive Mn(III, IV) oxide minerals. These biominerals drive carbon, nutrient, and trace metal cycles, thus playing important environmental and ecological roles. However, the regulatory mechanisms and physiological functions of Mn biomineralization are unknown. This challenge arises from the common occurrence of multiple Mn oxidases within the same organism and the use of Mn oxides as indicators of combined gene activity. Through the detection of gene activation in individual cells, we discover that expression ofmnxGandmcoA, two Mn oxidase-encoding genes inPseudomonas putidaGB-1, is confined to subsets of cells within the population, with each gene showing distinct spatiotemporal patterns that reflect local microenvironments. These coordinated intra-population dynamics control Mn biomineralization and illuminate the strategies used by microbial communities to dictate the extent, location, and timing of biogeochemical transformations.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decoding the formation of hammerhead ion populations observed by Parker Solar Probe

Context. In situ observations by the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) have revealed new properties of the proton velocity distributions (VDs), including hammerhead features that suggest a non-isotropic broadening of the beams. Aims. The present work proposes a very plausible explanation for the formation of hammerhead proton populations through the action of a proton firehose-like instability triggered by the proton beam. Methods. We investigated a self-generated firehose-like instability driven by the relative drift of ion populations using a simplified moment-based quasi-linear (QL) theory. While simpler and faster than advanced numerical simulations, this toy model provided rapid insights and concisely highlighted the role of plasma micro-instabilities in relaxing the observed anisotropies of particle VDs in the solar wind and space plasmas. Results. The QL theory proposed here shows that the resulting transverse waves are right-hand polarized and have two consequences on the protons: (i) They reduce the relative drift between the beam and the core, but above all, (ii) they induce a strong perpendicular temperature anisotropy specific to the observed hammerhead ion beam. Moreover, the long-run QL results suggest that these hammerhead distributions are rather transitory states that are still subject to relaxation mechanisms, in which instabilities such as the one discussed here are very likely involved. This foundational work motivates future detailed studies using advanced methods.

Shaaban, Shaaban M. (ORCID:000000030465598X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heat metrics and thresholds reshape population exposure and inequality signals

Extreme heat is intensifying worldwide, yet estimates of heat hazard and exposure inequality depend on both the heat metric and how extreme days are defined. Using summer 2022 across the Mediterranean, we quantify population heat exposure with four metrics—land surface temperature (LST), air temperature (Ta), heat index (HI), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT)—under absolute (fixed-value) and relative (anomaly-based) thresholds. Under absolute thresholds, total heat exposure differs by more than two orders of magnitude across metrics (31.3 billion person-days for Ta vs 0.3 billion for HI). Geographic hotspots also diverge: WBGT concentrates in humid coastal North Africa (e.g. the Nile Delta), whereas Ta and LST are more widespread. Under relative thresholds, exposure totals converge and cross-metric hotspot agreement increases (e.g. Ta–WBGT top-tercile overlap increases from 10.7% to 29.0%), shifting hotspots toward densely populated southern Europe. Crucially, the exposure–deprivation relationship also reverses across threshold frameworks: absolute thresholds concentrate exposure in more deprived North Africa and the Middle East, whereas relative thresholds shift the burden toward less-deprived European cities. This sensitivity is decision-relevant: city rankings based on WBGT exposure duration are almost completely reordered when switching threshold frameworks. Threshold choice therefore systematically reshapes hotspot patterns and inequality signals. Reporting both absolute and relative exposures can reveal hidden hotspots and support more targeted heat-risk monitoring and intervention planning.

Mediterranean↗

DOE OSTI2024

SDSS-IV MaNGA: stellar rotational support in disc galaxies versus central surface density and stellar population age

ABSTRACT We investigate how the stellar rotational support changes as a function of spatially resolved stellar population age ($D_n4000$) and relative central stellar surface density ($\Delta \Sigma _1$) for MaNGA isolated/central disc galaxies. We find that the galaxy rotational support indicator $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ varies smoothly as a function of $\Delta \Sigma _1$ and $D_n4000$. $D_n4000$ versus $\Delta \Sigma _1$ follows a ‘J-shape’, with $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ contributing to the scatters. In this ‘J-shaped’ pattern rotational support increases with central $D_n4000$ when $\Delta \Sigma _1$ is low but decreases with $\Delta \Sigma _1$ when $\Delta \Sigma _1$ is high. Restricting attention to low-$\Delta \Sigma _1$ (i.e. large-radius) galaxies, we suggest that the trend of increasing rotational support with $D_n4000$ for these objects is produced by a mix of two different processes, a primary trend characterized by growth in $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ along with mass through gas accretion, on top of which disturbance episodes are overlaid, which reduce rotational support and trigger increased star formation. An additional finding is that star-forming galaxies with low $\Delta \Sigma _1$ have relatively larger radii than galaxies with higher $\Delta \Sigma _1$ at fixed stellar mass. Assuming that these relative radii rankings are preserved while galaxies are star forming then implies clear evolutionary paths in central $D_n4000$ versus $\Delta \Sigma _1$. The paper closes with comments on the implications that these paths have for the evolution of pseudo-bulges versus classical bulges. The utility of using $\rm D_n4000$–$\Delta \Sigma _1$ to study $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ reinforces the notion that galaxy kinematics correlate both with structure and with stellar-population state, and indicates the importance of a multidimensional description for understanding bulge and galaxy evolution.

Wang, Xiaohan (ORCID:0009000283121002)↗

DOE OSTI2024

In-beam γ -ray spectroscopy of negative-parity states of 37 K populated in dissipative reactions

In-beam γ-ray spectroscopy was used to study excited states of the neutron-deficient nucleus 37 K populated in fast-beam inelastic-scattering and proton-removal reactions at high-momentum loss. New γ-ray transitions and γγ coincidence relationships were established using the γ-ray tracking array GRETINA. The extension of the level scheme up to the first (13/2 – ) state highlights the potential of this recently demonstrated population pathway for studies of isospin symmetry involving mirror-energy differences. Furthermore, the nature of the newly identified states is discussed in comparison to shell-model calculations with the FSU cross-shell effective interaction. The calculated occupation numbers of individual orbitals are shown to offer a consistent explanation of the measured mirror-energy differences between 37 K and 37 Ar.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dark Population Transfer Mechanism for Sterile Neutrino Dark Matter

We present a mechanism for producing a cosmologically significant relic density of one or more sterile neutrinos. This scheme invokes two steps: First, a population of “heavy” sterile neutrinos is created by scattering-induced decoherence of active neutrinos. Second, this population is transferred, via sterile neutrino self-interaction-mediated scatterings and decays, to one or more lighter mass (∼10 keV to ∼1 GeV) sterile neutrinos that are far more weakly (or not at all) mixed with active species and could constitute dark matter. Dark matter produced this way can evade current electromagnetic and structure-based bounds, but may nevertheless be probed by future observations.

Dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-population Rouse models for polymer segmental dynamics in nanocomposites

Segmental dynamics of polymer chains in a model nanocomposite of poly(ethylene oxide) and silica nanoparticles (NPs) was investigated using quasielastic neutron scattering. The dynamics can be accurately described with the Rouse model. The bulklike polymer far from the NP surface behaves as the neat polymer. However, the slower polymer in the interface close to the NP surface is described either with a second Rouse population with different relaxation time or using the suppressed Rouse model. These simple two-population models accurately reproduce the experimental data, with the suppressed Rouse model describing topological constraints, on average, every 12 beads with an interfacial thickness up to 13.5 beads, and the effect of the interface extending to a layer of thickness comparable to the end-to-end distance of the polymer. This modeling provides an explanation for the observed reinforcement in PNC even at low loadings, consistent with current understanding of the relevance of the interphase.

Composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

DOE OSTI2024

The ancestral environment of teosinte populations shapes their root microbiome

Summary Background The composition of the root microbiome affects the host’s growth, with variation in the host genome associated with microbiome variation. However, it is not known whether this intra-specific variation of root microbiomes is a consequence of plants performing targeted manipulations of them to adapt to their local environment or varying passively with other traits. To explore the relationship between the genome, environment and microbiome, we sampled seeds from teosinte populations across its native range in Mexico. We then grew teosinte accessions alongside two modern maize lines in a common garden experiment. Metabarcoding was performed using universal bacterial and fungal primers to profile their root microbiomes. Results The root microbiome varied between the two modern maize lines and the teosinte accessions. We further found that variation of the teosinte genome, the ancestral environment (temperature/elevation) and root microbiome were all correlated. Multiple microbial groups significantly varied in relative abundance with temperature/elevation, with an increased abundance of bacteria associated with cold tolerance found in teosinte accessions taken from high elevations. Conclusions Our results suggest that variation in the root microbiome is pre-conditioned by the genome for the local environment (i.e. non-random). Ultimately, these claims would be strengthened by confirming that these differences in the root microbiome impact host phenotype, for example, by confirming that the root microbiomes of high-elevation teosinte populations enhance cold tolerance.

Genetics & Heredity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Survival and Age at Maturity in Head-Started Wood Turtles ( Glyptemys insculpta ) with Implications for Population Recovery

A small relict population of Glyptemys insculpta (Wood Turtle) was discovered on a protected area in New Jersey in 2006. Marking and radio-tracking of the old founder individuals helped to determine movement patterns and habitat use. Monitoring of nesting females revealed that nesting habitat and nest success was limited due to invasive plants, human landscape alteration, and Procyon lotor (Raccoon) depredation. We initiated habitat restoration including creation of protected nesting areas, mowing in winter, invasive plant removal, and adjacent landowner education. Here, we direct-released hatchlings from protected nests from 2006 to 2015, yet only a few were detected in subsequent years. Between 2011 and 2023, some or all of each hatchling cohort were head-started indoors at a high school for 9 months. We have continuously radio-tracked all head-starts from the 2011 cohort and portions of the 2012–2014 cohorts. Head-started turtles found their own food, established home ranges, and hibernated communally with founder adults. Subsidized Raccoons, mowers, automobiles, and flooding events—all human-instigated—were the causes of mortality. The first males and first females from the 2011 head-start cohort reached maturity in 2017 and 2019, respectively, at ages 6–8, younger than expected by 4–5 years. Successful reproduction by head-starts was confirmed by viable hatchlings produced in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Head-starting can pull a relict population out of the nose-dive to extirpation when used in conjunction with habitat-restoration practices, but it must be conducted with persistence and continuity over at least the number of years it takes for the earliest cohorts to reach maturity and begin producing offspring of their own.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Population-level Dark Energy Constraints from Strong Gravitational Lensing using Simulation-Based Inference

In this work, we present a scalable approach for inferring the dark energy equation-of-state parameter ($w$) from a population of strong gravitational lens images using Simulation-Based Inference (SBI). Strong gravitational lensing offers crucial insights into cosmology, but traditional Monte Carlo methods for cosmological inference are computationally prohibitive and inadequate for processing the thousands of lenses anticipated from future cosmic surveys. New tools for inference, such as SBI using Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE), address this challenge effectively. By training a machine learning model on simulated data of strong lenses, we can learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio for robust inference. Our scalable approach enables more constrained population-level inference of $w$ compared to individual lens analysis, constraining $w$ to within $1\sigma$.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Total Effective Dose from Radiologic Emissions from INL Facilities for Calculation of Population Dose for the INL 2024 Annual Site Environmental Report

Total effective radiation dose from airborne releases was calculated using air dispersion modeling performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Idaho Falls Office using their HYSPLIT computer model (Stein et al. 2015; Draxler et al. 2013), and the Dose Multi-Media (DOSEMM) dose assessment model (Rood 2019) . The objective of these calculations was to provide a grid of total effective dose across a model domain that encompasses a 50-mile (80-km) radius from any Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site source. In addition to INL Site sources, releases from the Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL) (IF-683) and IF-603 located at the INL Research Center (IRC) within the Idaho Falls city limits were also included. Due to tracking limitations, radionuclides released from IF-611 and IF-603 are modeled as released from IF-603. The dose results will be combined with GIS software to compute a total population dose for the calendar year (CY) 2024 and will be reported in the INL Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER). This report does not cover the population dose calculation and only documents generation of the gridded dose file.

42 - ENGINEERING↗