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SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2022

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2022 (2022-03-28 to 2021-11-17), the seventh full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2022 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2022.

SPRUCE experiment, plant phenological phases, Spru↗

Plant Phenology Evaluation of CRESCENDO Land Surface Models–Part 1: Start and End of the Growing Season

Plant phenology plays a fundamental role in land–atmosphere interactions, and its variability and variations are an indicator of climate and environmental changes. For this reason, current land surface models include phenology parameterizations and related biophysical and biogeochemical processes. In this work, the climatology of the beginning and end of the growing season, simulated by the land component of seven state-of-the-art European Earth system models participating in the CMIP6, is evaluated globally against satellite observations. The assessment is performed using the vegetation metric leaf area index and a recently developed approach, named four growing season types. On average, the land surface models show a 0.6-month delay in the growing season start, while they are about 0.5 months earlier in the growing season end. The difference with observation tends to be higher in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. High agreement between land surface models and observations is exhibited in areas dominated by broadleaf deciduous trees, while high variability is noted in regions dominated by broadleaf deciduous shrubs. Generally, the timing of the growing season end is accurately simulated in about 25 % of global land grid points versus 16 % in the timing of growing season start. The refinement of phenology parameterization can lead to better representation of vegetation-related energy, water, and carbon cycles in land surface models, but plant phenology is also affected by plant physiology and soil hydrology processes. Consequently, phenology representation and, in general, vegetation modelling is a complex task, which still needs further improvement, evaluation, and multi-model comparison.

Phenology↗

Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

first flowering date↗

Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) has shifted earlier in response to warmer temperatures. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime temperatures on SOS changes remain poorly understood. Here we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States during 2000-2013. We found SOS responded differently to Tmin and Tmax at 81.5% of the study area. Furthermore, the SOS responses to Tmin and Tmax both changed across space, and specifically, these two responses showed significant divergent trends from cold to warm regions (P<0.001). We propose a new framework utilizing both Tmin and Tmax, instead of daily average temperature, in modeling phenology. This study, for the first time, disentangled phenological responses to daytime temperature from nighttime temperature across a wide range of temperatures. The findings suggest that model projections of future phenological changes should incorporate the divergent phenology responses to daytime and nighttime temperatures, in order to improve the representation of land-atmosphere interactions in Earth system models in light of asymmetric diurnal warming.

asymmetric warming, temperature sensitivity, Appal↗

An ecologically-constrained deep learning model for tropical leaf phenology monitoring using PlanetScope satellites

In tropical forests, leaf phenology signals leaf-on/off status and exhibits considerable variability across scales from a single tree-crown to the entire forest ecosystem. Such phenology signals importantly regulate large-scale biogeochemical cycles and regional climate. PlanetScope CubeSats data with a 3-m resolution and near-daily global coverage provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor both fine- and ecosystem-scale phenology variability along large environmental gradients. However, a scalable method that accurately characterizes leaf phenology from PlanetScope with biophysically meaningful metrics remains lacking. Here we developed an index-guided, ecologically constrained autoencoder (IG-ECAE) method to automatically derive a deciduousness metric (i.e. percentage of tree canopies with leaf-off status within an image pixel) from PlanetScope. The IG-ECAE first estimated the reflectance spectra of leafy/leafless canopies based on their spectral indices characteristics, then used the derived reflectance spectra to guide an autoencoder deep learning method with additional ecological constraints to refine the reflectance spectra, and finally used linear spectral unmixing to estimate the relative abundance of leafless canopies (or deciduousness) per PlanetScope image pixel. We tested the IG-ECAE method at 16 tropical forest sites spanning multiple continents and a large precipitation gradient (1470-2819 mm year -1 ). Among these sites, we evaluated the PlanetScope-derived deciduousness with corresponding measures derived from WorldView-2 (n=9 sites) and local phenocams (n=9 sites). Our results show that PlanetScope-derived deciduousness agrees: 1) with that derived from WorldView-2 at the patch level (90m×90m) with r 2 =0.89 across all sites; and 2) with that derived from phenocams to quantify ecosystem-scale seasonality with r 2 ranging from 0.62-0.96. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of IG-ECAE in characterizing the wide variability in deciduousness across scales from pixels to forest ecosystems, and from a single date to the full annual cycle, indicating the potential for using high-resolution satellites to track the large-scale phenological patterns and response of tropical forests to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

HP-LSP: A reference of land surface phenology from fused Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 with PhenoCam data

Abstract Land surface phenology (LSP) products are currently of large uncertainties due to cloud contaminations and other impacts in temporal satellite observations and they have been poorly validated because of the lack of spatially comparable ground measurements. This study provided a reference dataset of gap-free time series and phenological dates by fusing the Harmonized Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 (HLS) observations with near-surface PhenoCam time series for 78 regions of 10 × 10 km 2 across ecosystems in North America during 2019 and 2020. The HLS-PhenoCam LSP (HP-LSP) reference dataset at 30 m pixels is composed of: (1) 3-day synthetic gap-free EVI2 (two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index) time series that are physically meaningful to monitor the vegetation development across heterogeneous levels, train models (e.g., machine learning) for land surface mapping, and extract phenometrics from various methods; and (2) four key phenological dates (accuracy ≤5 days) that are spatially continuous and scalable, which are applicable to validate various satellite-based phenology products (e.g., global MODIS/VIIRS LSP), develop phenological models, and analyze climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Learning the Rhythm of the Seasons in the Face of Global Change: Phenological Research in the 21st Century

Phenology is the study of recurring life-cycle events, of which classic examples include flowering by plants as well as animal migration. Phenological responses are increasingly relevant for addressing applied environmental issues. Yet, challenges remain with respect to spanning scales of observation, integrating observations across taxa, and modeling phenological sequences to enable ecological forecasts in light of future climate change. Recent advances that are helping to address these challenges include refined landscape-scale phenology estimates from satellite data, advanced instrument-based approaches for field measurements, and new cyber-infrastructure for archiving and distribution of products. These advances are aiding in diverse areas including modeling land-surface exchange, evaluating climate-phenology relationships, and aiding land management decisions.

Morisette, Jeffrey T.↗

Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool

The Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool (PPET) is a set of algorithms implemented in MATLAB that estimates key vegetative phenological parameters. For a given year, the PPET software package takes in temporally processed vegetation index data (3D spatio-temporal arrays) generated by the time series product tool (TSPT) and outputs spatial grids (2D arrays) of vegetation phenological parameters. As a precursor to PPET, the TSPT uses quality information for each pixel of each date to remove bad or suspect data, and then interpolates and digitally fills data voids in the time series to produce a continuous, smoothed vegetation index product. During processing, the TSPT displays NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series plots and images from the temporally processed pixels. Both the TSPT and PPET currently use moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite multispectral data as a default, but each software package is modifiable and could be used with any high-temporal-rate remote sensing data collection system that is capable of producing vegetation indices. Raw MODIS data from the Aqua and Terra satellites is processed using the TSPT to generate a filtered time series data product. The PPET then uses the TSPT output to generate phenological parameters for desired locations. PPET output data tiles are mosaicked into a Conterminous United States (CONUS) data layer using ERDAS IMAGINE, or equivalent software package. Mosaics of the vegetation phenology data products are then reprojected to the desired map projection using ERDAS IMAGINE

McKellip, Rodney D.↗

Exploring the role of biotic factors in regulating the spatial variability in land surface phenology across four temperate forest sites

Here, land surface phenology (LSP), the characterization of plant phenology with satellite data, is essential for understanding the effects of climate change on ecosystem functions. Considerable LSP variation is observed within local landscapes, and the role of biotic factors in regulating such variation remains underexplored. In this study, we selected four National Ecological Observatory Network terrestrial sites with minor topographic relief to investigate how biotic factors regulate intra-site LSP variability. We utilized plant functional type (PFT) maps, functional traits, and LSP data to assess the explanatory power of biotic factors for the start and end of season (SOS and EOS) variability. Our results indicate that PFTs alone explain only 0.8–23.4% of intra-site SOS and EOS variation, whereas including functional traits significantly improves explanatory power, with cross-validation correlations ranging from 0.50 to 0.85. While functional traits exhibited diverse effects on SOS and EOS across different sites, traits related to competitive ability and productivity were important for explaining both SOS and EOS variation at these sites. These findings reveal that plants exhibit diverse phenological responses to comparable environmental conditions, and functional traits significantly contribute to intra-site LSP variability, highlighting the importance of intrinsic biotic properties in regulating plant phenology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Colorado Elevation Gradient Snowmelt Manipulation Plant Phenology 2017-2018

This dataset includes observations of plant phenology at five locations along an elevation gradient in Crested Butte, Colorado. Observations occurred over the years 2017 and 2018. Observations taken in 2018 are associated with an experimental early snowmelt manipulation. The file PhenologyData_complete.txt contains raw data of phenology observations for each year, at each site, for each species within 1mX1m subplots. The file Phenology Data Package.docx contains information about sites, plots, and plant phenophases. These observations were taken to assess the temporal impact of early snowmelt perturbations on plant growth in the East River Valley. These data can be used to inform when and where plants may be using water resources throughout the season and how the phenology of plant communities in the watershed may respond to early snowmelt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Approximation of ice phenology of Maine lakes using Aqua MODIS surface temperature data

Studies of lake ice phenology have historically relied on limited in situ data. Relatively few observations exist for ice out and fewer still for ice in, both of which are necessary to determine the temporal extent of ice cover. Satellite data provide an opportunity to better document patterns of ice phenology across landscapes and relate them to the climatological drivers behind changing ice phenology. We developed a model, the Cumulative Sum Method (CSM), that uses daytime and nighttime surface temperature observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Earth-observing Aqua satellite to approximate ice in (the onset of ice cover) and ice out from training datasets of 13 and 58 Maine lakes, respectively, during the 2002/2003 through 2017/2018 ice seasons. Ice in was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative negative degrees following the first day of the season below 0°C. Ice out was signaled by reaching a threshold of cumulative positive degrees following the first day of the year above 0°C. The comparison of observed and remotely sensed ice-in dates showed relative agreement with a correlation coefficient of 0.71 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 9.8 days. Ice-out approximations had a correlation coefficient of 0.67 and an MAE of 8.8 days. Lakes smaller in surface area and nearer the Atlantic coast had the greatest error in approximation. Application of the CSM to 20 additional lakes in Maine produced a comparable ice-out MAE of 8.9 days. Ice-out model performance was weaker for the warmest years; there was a larger MAE of 12.0 days when the model was applied to the years 2019–2023 for the original 58 lakes. The development of this model, which utilizes daily satellite data, demonstrates the promise of remote sensing for quantifying ice phenology over short, temporal scales, and wider geographic regions than can be observed in situ, and allows exploration of the influence of surface temperature patterns on the process and timing of ice in and ice out.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization effects on the spatial patterns of spring vegetation phenology depend on the climatic background

Cities have been considered ideal surrogates for evaluating ecological responses to climate warming. Although research has revealed that the urban heat island effect is not the only determinant that drives the rural-urban difference in spring phenology, limited attempts further explore the effect of complex interactions between urbanization and climates on the start of the season (SOS). Here, we employed the percentage of impervious surface area as an indicator of urbanization levels, incorporating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and climates to decipher the multiple effects on the temporal shift in SOS. Our results suggest that urbanization, the UHI effect, and climates jointly drive the phenological timing in cities. Further, the SOS is highly linearly correlated with urbanization levels and UHI effects (p<0.001) in the zones with warm and humid climates, whereas relatively warmer, cooler, or arid climates break down the linearity. Geographically, the SOS is north-south symmetrical for the rural-urban ecosystem at the national scale, which initiates at the mid-latitudes (around 30 °N, 67.58 DOY ± 2.23 days) first and then towards the low (around 20 °N, 105.25 DOY ± 1.31 days) and high-latitudes (45 °N, 123.01 DOY ± 1.45 days). Chilling accumulation and spring temperature jointly contribute to this phenomenon. As the UHI effect is similar to the projected global warming in the future, understanding the phenological responses to urbanization in various climates is insightful for evaluating the impact of future warming on plants' phenological behavior in the global ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comprehensive analysis of the crop effect on the urban-rural differences in land surface phenology

The response of land surface phenology (LSP) to the urban heat island effect (UHI) is a useful biological indicator for understanding how vegetated ecosystems will be affected by future climate warming. However, vegetation cover in rural areas is often dominated by cultivated land, whose phenological timing is considerably influenced by agricultural managements (e.g., timing of sowing and harvesting), leading to biased conclusions derived from the urban-rural LSP differences. To demonstrate this problem, we investigated the crop influence on the phenological response to a warmer environment resulting from the UHI effect. We partitioned cities in the United States into cultivated and non-cultivated categories according to the proportion of crops in rural areas. We then built continuous buffer zones starting from the urban boundary to explore the urban-rural LSP differences considering the UHI effect on them. In this work, the results suggest crop inclusion is likely to lead to >14 days of urban-rural differences at both the start of the season (SOS) and the end of the season (EOS) between cultivated and non-cultivated cities. The temperature sensitivity (ST) of SOS is overestimated by approximately 2.7 days/°C, whereas the EOS is underestimated by 3.6 days/°C. Removing crop-dominated pixels (i.e., above 50 %) can minimize the influence of crop planting/harvesting on LSP and derive reliable results. We, therefore, suggest explicit consideration of crop impacts in future studies of phenological differences between urban and rural areas and the UHI effect on LSP in urban domains, as presented by this comprehensive study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Respiration Response to Rainfall Modulated by Plant Phenology in a Montane Meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1-D diffusion-reaction model to calculate depth-resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016-2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales (p<0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology (p<0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore-summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Lastly, we observed significant late-season CO 2 fluxes from the deep sub-soil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of sub-soil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving leaf spring phenology modelling for temperate tree species: An integration of the Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model with the optimality‐based approach

Spring leaf phenology in temperate tree species is highly sensitive to climate change and significantly affects plant photosynthetic performance, resource utilization, competition and trophic interactions, thereby impacting various ecosystem functions. Although optimality-based (OPT) approaches for modelling spring phenology are increasingly recognized, the optimal representation of the underlying principle (balancing photosynthesis gains with chilling risks) remains controversial. Here, we integrated a coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model into an existing OPT model, and termed the resulting model R-OPT, and evaluated its performance using the PEP725 dataset, which includes 409,144 site-species-year records from across Europe. Our results show that R-OPT outperforms both the default OPT and non-optimality-based models (e.g. the chilling-forcing trade-off and growing degree day models). This improved performance is consistent within and across five focal tree species but varies by region: R-OPT excels in lowland, moist environments but is less effective in high-altitude, cold, and dry areas, possibly due to an incomplete representation of environmental constraints on photosynthetic carbon gain in these regions. Our research advances leaf spring phenology modelling by emphasizing an optimality principle that balances photosynthetic carbon gain with chilling risk, improving the representation of plant photosynthesis processes and enhancing understanding of environmental factors influencing phenology in the context of climate change.

coupled Farquhar–Medlyn photosynthesis model↗

Sensor-based phenology from snowmelt experiment gradient, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020

The timing of snowmelt is a critical cue for the initiation of growth in mountain meadow ecosystems and can also impact the duration and magnitude of plant production. High frequency observations of species-level phenology are time consuming and require a high degree of expertise, and publicly available remote sensing products lack the necessary temporal resolution to assess fine-scale growing season dynamics. Near-surface sensing methods provide a middle ground with high temporal frequency and tractable spatial scales (from sub-meter to hillslope scale). This data package includes csv files of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) timeseries (SM_NDVI_dailymax.csv) and phenological thresholds (SM_NDVI_summary.csv) for sub-plots (1m2) and Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) phenological thresholds (SM_GCC_summary.csv) at the plot scale (10m x 14m). Location IDs associated with this data package are: ER-LM, WG-UM, WG-LS, ER-US, and XX-AL. Related data packages include: “Microclimate observations associated with snowmelt experiment gradient sites, East River, Colorado, 2017 to 2020” and “Colorado Elevation Gradient Snowmelt Manipulation Plant Phenology 2017-2018”.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope data, 2018-2022, Teller, Kougarok, and Council, Seward Peninsula

Remote sensing maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope (Planet Team, 2017) normalized differential greenness index (NDGI; Yang et al., 2019) time series data. These maps include four phenological timing metric - start of spring (SOS), end of spring (EOS), start of fall (SOF), and end of fall (EOF), corresponding NDGI value at the four phenological timings, and annual maximum and minimum NDGI. This package includes maps for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Marker (MM) 27, Kougarok MM64, and Council MM 71 watersheds. Maps of 5 years from 2018 to 2022 are included in this dataset. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In revision) “Fine-scale Landscape Characteristics, Vegetation Composition, and Snowmelt Timing Control Phenological Heterogeneity across Arctic Tundra Landscapes”The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Shifts in Vegetation Phenology on the Carbon Balance of a Semiarid Sagebrush Ecosystem

Dryland ecosystems are critical in regulating the interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon cycle. The responses of such ecosystems to weather and environmental conditions remain important factors that limit the accurate projections of carbon balance under future climate change. Here, we investigated how shifts in vegetation phenology resulting from changes in weather and environmental conditions influenced ecosystem carbon cycling in one semiarid ecosystem in the Hanford area of central Washington, United States. We examined two years of measurements of the phenology camera, eddy covariance, and soil chamber from an upland semiarid sagebrush ecosystem. Both years had contrasting diel and seasonal patterns of CO 2 fluxes, primarily driven by differences in vegetation phenology. The net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) in 2019 were enlarged by shifted vegetation phenology, as a cold and snow-covered winter and warm and dry winter in 2020 resulted in constrained magnitudes of NEE and ET during the summer months. The annual gross primary productivity (GPP) was much higher in 2019 than in 2020 (-211 vs. -112 gC m -2 ), whereas ecosystem respiration was comparable in these two years (164 vs. 144 gC m -2 ). Thus, the annual NEE in 2019 was negative (-47 gC m -2 ) with the sagebrush ecosystem functioning as a carbon sink, while the positive annual NEE in 2020 indicated that the sagebrush ecosystem functioned as a carbon source. Our results demonstrate that winter snowpack can be a critical driver of annual carbon uptake in semiarid sagebrush ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗