Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Summer thaw duration is a strong predictor of the soil microbiome and its response to permafrost thaw in arctic tundra

Abstract Climate warming has increased permafrost thaw in arctic tundra and extended the duration of annual thaw (number of thaw days in summer) along soil profiles. Predicting the microbial response to permafrost thaw depends largely on knowing how increased thaw duration affects the composition of the soil microbiome. Here, we determined soil microbiome composition from the annually thawed surface active layer down through permafrost from two tundra types at each of three sites on the North Slope of Alaska, USA. Variations in soil microbial taxa were found between sites up to ~90 km apart, between tundra types, and between soil depths. Microbiome differences at a site were greatest across transitions from thawed to permafrost depths. Results from correlation analysis based on multi‐decadal thaw surveys show that differences in thaw duration by depth were significantly, positively correlated with the abundance of dominant taxa in the active layer and negatively correlated with dominant taxa in the permafrost. Microbiome composition within the transition zone was statistically similar to that in the permafrost, indicating that recent decades of intermittent thaw have not yet induced a shift from permafrost to active‐layer microbes. We suggest that thaw duration rather than thaw frequency has a greater impact on the composition of microbial taxa within arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of DNA methylation‐based epigenetic age predictors in loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda )

Abstract Biological ageing is connected to life history variation across ecological scales and informs a basic understanding of age‐related declines in organismal function. Altered DNA methylation dynamics are a conserved aspect of biological ageing and have recently been modelled to predict chronological age among vertebrate species. In addition to their utility in estimating individual age, differences between chronological and predicted ages arise due to acceleration or deceleration of epigenetic ageing, and these discrepancies are linked to disease risk and multiple life history traits. Although evidence suggests that patterns of DNA methylation can describe ageing in plants, predictions with epigenetic clocks have yet to be performed. Here, we resolve the DNA methylome across CpG, CHG, and CHH‐methylation contexts in the loblolly pine tree ( Pinus taeda ) and construct epigenetic clocks capable of predicting ages in this species within 6% of its maximum lifespan. Although patterns of CHH‐methylation showed little association with age, both CpG and CHG‐methylation contexts were strongly associated with ageing, largely becoming hypomethylated with age. Among age‐associated loci were those in close proximity to malate dehydrogenase, NADH dehydrogenase, and 18S and 26S ribosomal RNA genes. This study reports one of the first epigenetic clocks in plants and demonstrates the universality of age‐associated DNA methylation dynamics which can inform conservation and management practices, as well as our ecological and evolutionary understanding of biological ageing in plants.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Site Disorder as a Predictor for Compositionally Complex 5RE 2 Zr 2 O 7 Ceramic Phase Stability

Here, phase formation and stability of five component compositionally complex rare earth zirconates (5RE 2 Zr 2 O 7 ) were investigated by X-ray diffraction and electron microprobe analysis. Zirconates with different rare earth compositions (LaNdSmEuDy, LaNdSmEuYb, LaNdEuErYb, LaNdDyErYb, SmEuDyYHo, LaYHoErYb, and DyYHoErYb) were synthesized at 1700°C and 2000°C by the solid-state method to investigate the effect of A-site site disorder (δ A ) on phase stability. Increased site disorder results from mixed cation occupancy with localized crystallographic strain and bond disorder. Compositions LaNdSmEuDy (δ A = 4.6) and LaNdSmEuYb (δ A = 6.0) produced a single pyrochlore phase and compositions SmDyYHoErYb (δ A = 2.8), LaYHoErYb (δ A = 6.2), and DyYHoErYb (δ A = 1.7) produced a single fluorite phase. High δ A compositions LaNdEuErYb (δ A = 6.9) and LaNdDyErYb (δ A = 7.2) produced a pyrochlore and fluorite phase mixture at 1700°C. Single phase was obtained for the latter composition at 2000°C. Of the single phase compositions calcined at 1700°C, LaNdSmEuYb and LaYHoErYb (both with largest δ A ) showed decomposition to mixed fluorite and pyrochlore phases during lower temperature anneals, indicating entropic stabilization. Comparison with prior work shows a temperature dependence of the critical δ A for phase stability, and compositions near it are expected to be entropy stabilized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Critical Evaluation of Potentiostatic Holds as Accelerated Predictors of Capacity Fade during Calendar Aging

Li-ion batteries will lose both capacity and power over time due to calendar aging caused by slow parasitic processes that consume Li + ions. Studying and mitigating these processes is traditionally an equally slow venture, which is especially taxing for the validation of new active materials and electrolyte additives. Here, we evaluate whether potentiostatic holds can be used to accelerate the diagnosis of Li + loss during calendar aging. The technique is based on the idea that, under the right conditions, the current measured as the cell voltage is held constant can be correlated with the instantaneous rate of side reactions. Thus, in principle, these measurements could capture the rate of capacity fade in real time . In practice, we show that this method is incapable of quantitatively forecasting calendar aging trends. Instead, our study demonstrates that potentiostatic holds can be applied for initial qualitative screening of systems that exhibit promising long-term stability, which can be useful to shrink the parameter space for calendar aging studies. By facilitating the identification of improved formulations, this approach can help accelerate innovation in the battery industry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

geothermal_osr (Energy Predictor for Geothermal Open Source Reservoir) [SWR-22-23]

This is a repository with the tools developed for predicting energy produced at Open-Source Reservoir (OSR). It includes both simulation data for OSR, as well as Jupyter notebooks for training and evaluating prediction models. OSR was constructed based on the data from Brady Hot Springs reservoir (Nevada, USA) but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics and does not disclose any sensitive data.

Duplyakin, Dmitry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Water Age Predictor

Machine Learning script to predict groundwater ages based on auxiliary features in a publicly available dataset, based on publicly available software libraries. Code applied to data from the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) program in California, including well location and construction information, chemical constituents and isotopic tracers, and land use metrics.

Chakraborty, Indrasis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phosphorus sorption and its environmental predictors across pantropical forest soils sampled over the past decade

Tropical forest productivity is frequently constrained by soil phosphorus (P) availability, yet global Land Surface Model (LSM), which are used to simulate ecosystem processes, still represent P cycling in tropical regions only in a limited way, largely because of scarce observational data. Phosphorus adsorption and desorption of dissolved inorganic P to and from soil minerals (hereafter termed sorption), is an important process for predicting how much P is available to plants. This dataset was created to improve predictions of soil P sorption in tropical soils by identifying the isotherm equation that best describes pantropical soils. It includes raw measurements of environmental variables, such as soil properties and climate, together with P sorption data collected from 40 forest soil pits from 9 Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO) sites across 7 tropical countries during 2018-2022. The data are organized by site, country, and continent. Each site may include several soil pits. For each pit, P sorption was measured across a range of soil P concentrations to build sorption isotherm curves, typically with about 6 to 8 measurements per curve. While sorbed P varies across these concentration levels, the other environmental variables remain constant at the plot level.

Aluminum oxide↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acute Stent-Induced Endothelial Denudation: Biomechanical Predictors of Vascular Injury

Recent concern for local drug delivery and withdrawal of the first Food and Drug Administration-approved bioresorbable scaffold emphasizes the need to optimize the relationships between stent design and drug release with imposed arterial injury and observed pharmacodynamics. In this study, we examine the hypothesis that vascular injury is predictable from stent design and that the expanding force of stent deployment results in increased circumferential stress in the arterial tissue, which may explain acute injury poststent deployment. Using both numerical simulations and ex vivo experiments on three different stent designs (slotted tube, corrugated ring, and delta wing), arterial injury due to device deployment was examined. Furthermore, using numerical simulations, the consequence of changing stent strut radial thickness on arterial wall shear stress and arterial circumferential stress distributions was examined. Regions with predicted arterial circumferential stress exceeding a threshold of 49.5 kPa compared favorably with observed ex vivo endothelial denudation for the three considered stent designs. In addition, increasing strut thickness was predicted to result in more areas of denudation and larger areas exposed to low wall shear stress. We conclude that the acute arterial injury, observed immediately following stent expansion, is caused by high circumferential hoop stresses in the interstrut region, and denuded area profiles are dependent on unit cell geometric features. Such findings when coupled with where drugs move might explain the drug–device interactions.

Conway, Claire↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

PowerModel-AI: A First On-the-Fly Machine-Learning Predictor for AC Power Flow Solutions

The real-time creation of machine-learning models via active or on-the-fly learning has attracted considerable interest across various scientific and engineering disciplines. These algorithms enable machines to build models autonomously while remaining operational. Through a series of query strategies, the machine can evaluate whether newly encountered data fall outside the scope of the existing training set. In this study, we introduce PowerModel-AI, an end-to-end machine learning software designed to accurately predict AC power flow solutions. We present detailed justifications for our model design choices and demonstrate that selecting the right input features effectively captures load flow decoupling inherent in power flow equations. Our approach incorporates on-the-fly learning, where power flow calculations are initiated only when the machine detects a need to improve the dataset in regions where the model’s suboptimal performance is based on specific criteria. Otherwise, the existing model is used for power flow predictions. This study includes analyses of five Texas A&M synthetic power grid cases, encompassing the 14-, 30-, 37-, 200-, and 500-bus systems. The training and test datasets were generated using PowerModels.jl, an open-source power flow solver/optimizer developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM, USA.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress Towards Interpretable Machine Learning-based Disruption Predictors Across Tokamaks

In this paper we lay the groundwork for a robust cross-device comparison of data-driven disruption prediction algorithms on DIII-D and JET tokamaks. In order to consistently carry on a comparative analysis, we define physics-based indicators of disruption precursors based on temperature, density, and radiation profiles that are currently missing for DIII-D data. These profile-based indicators are shown to well-describe impurity accumulation events in both DIII-D and JET discharges that eventually disrupt. Thanks to the univariate analysis on the features used in such data-driven applications on both tokamaks, we are able to statistically highlight differences in the dominant disruption precursors: JET with its ITER-like wall is more prone to impurity accumulation events, while DIII-D is more subject to edge cooling mechanisms that destabilize dangerous MHD modes. Even though the analyzed datasets are characterized by such intrinsic differences, we show how data-driven algorithms trained on one device can be used to predict and interpret disruptive scenarios on the other. As long as the destabilizing precursors are diagnosed in a device-independent way, the knowledge that data-driven algorithms learn on one device can be used to explain a disruptive behavior on another device.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗