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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗
NASA NTRS2022

Discrete Aurora on the Nightside of Mars: Occurrence Location and Probability

This paper represents the first attempt to predict the occurrence location and probability of discrete electron aurora on the nightside of Mars. We run a 3-D time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of magnetic field and plasma distributions over the course of one planetary rotation. We perform eight simulation cases under solar minimum quiet-solar-wind conditions (four equinox/solstice seasons, each with two interplanetary magnetic field polarities) and in an actual interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) case to assess quiet and space weather situations, respectively. The occurrence of detectable discrete aurora is subject to the combination of the probabilities that (a) the ionosphere is magnetically connected with high altitudes through open field lines and (b) precipitating energy fluxes of >30 eV electrons exceed 0.1 erg/cm2/s. Our results show that during quiet solar activity, discrete aurora occurs likely on small-scale patches embedded inside strong crustal magnetic field regions (with a magnitude greater than 50 nT at 150 km), and the overall chance across the globe is ∼0.77%. The higher probability over strong crustal field regions is attributed to the stronger magnetic field convergence. Modeling shows the occurrence probability dramatically increases during the ICME event, particularly by more than an order of magnitude in weak crustal field regions. Our model results reasonably agree with NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Mars Express observations. Our study suggests that nightside discrete electron aurora is not caused by the direct entry of magnetosheath plasma in a cusp-like process but due to the recycling of nightside magnetospheric electrons.

Xiaohua Fang↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probability effects on stimulus evaluation and response processes

This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2019

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P(sub c)) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P(sub c) thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk remediation thresholds↗
NASA NTRS2019

Probability Index of Low Stratus and Fog at Dawn using Dual Geostationary Satellite Observations from COMS and FY-2D near the Korean Peninsula

We developed a new remote sensing method for detecting low stratus and fog (LSF) at dawn in terms of probability index (PI) of LSF from simultaneous stereo observations of two geostationary-orbit satellites; the Korean Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS; 128.2°E); and the Chinese FengYun satellite (FY-2D; 86.5°E). The algorithm was validated near the Korean Peninsula between the months of April and August from April 2012 to June 2015, by using surface observations at 45 meteorological stations in South Korea. The optical features of LSF were estimated by using satellite retrievals and simulated data from the radiative transfer model. The PI was calculated using the combination of three satellite-observed variables: 1) the reflectance at 0.67 μm (R(0.67)) from COMS, and 2) the FY-2D R(0.67) minus the COMS R(0.67) (△R(0.67)) and (3) the FY-2D-COMS difference in the brightness temperature difference between 3.7 and 11.0 μm (ΔBTD(3.7-11)). The three variables, adopted from the top three probability of detection (POD) scores for their fog detection thresholds: △R(0.67) (0.82) > ΔBTD(3.7-11) (0.73) > R(0.67) (0.70) > BTD(3.7-11) (0.51). The LSF PI for this algorithm was significantly better in the two case studies compared to that using COMS only (i.e., R(0.67) or BTD(3.7-11)), so that this improvement was due to △R(0.67) and ΔBTD(3.7-11). Overall, PI in the LSF spatial distribution has the merits of a high detection rate, a specific probability display, and a low rate of seasonality and variability in detection accuracy. Therefore, PI would be useful for monitoring LSF in near-real-time, and to further its forecast ability, using next-generation satellites.

fog↗
NASA NTRS2022

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management↗
NASA NTRS2022

Intent Modeling and Conflict Probability Calculation for Operations in Upper Class E Airspace

This work presents a probabilistic operational intent model for vehicles operating in upper Class E airspace. A hybrid method is developed to calculate the intent conflict probability leveraging and extending past works on probabilistic conflict computation. Simulation results verify that the probabilistic intent model can accurately encompass the uncertain positions of each vehicle type, that are a result of wind prediction errors and vehicle performance. A comparison with past methods showed that the proposed hybrid method captures the intent conflict probability with better accuracy, especially for a larger look-ahead horizon, and computational time is reasonable for real-time applications. An example is presented to illustrate the use of the intent conflict probability in strategic planning applications.

Air traffic management, operational intent, confli↗
NASA NTRS1973

On minimizing the probability of misclassification for linear feature selection

The use of techniques for feature selection permits treatment of classification problems in spaces of reduced dimensions. A method is considered of linear feature selection for n-dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of two populations, where each population is described by a known multivariate normal density function. More specifically, the problem of finding a 1xn transformation matrix B for which the probability of misclassification with respect to the one-dimensional transformed density functions was minimized was considered. Theoretical results are presented which give rise to a numerically tractable expression for the variation in the probability of misclassification with respect to B. Using this expression a computational procedure is discussed for obtaining a B which minimizes the probability of misclassification. Preliminary numerical results are discussed.

Guseman, L. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1973

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Johannesson, R.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Squires, K. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Sticking probabilities for the adsorption of hydrogen on clean Ni/111/, Ni/100/, Ni sheet and evaporated Ni films

Determination of the sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on clean Ni(111), Ni(100), polycrystalline nickel sheet, and polycrystalline evaporated nickel films, using a modification of the reflection detector technique of Horgan and King (1970) for metal films. The initial sticking probability for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film at 300 K by the proposed method is found to be 0.25 in comparison to 0.35 for hydrogen adsorption on a nickel film using the reflection detector technique. Also, the sticking probabilities on smooth single-crystal (111) and (100) planes and polycrystalline sheets are found to be lower than those on the rougher polycrystalline nickel films.

Horgan, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

New methodology for assessing the probability of contaminating Mars

Methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will be contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. The present NASA methods are extended to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Different types of microbial release are distinguished, and for each release mechanism a probability of growth is computed. Using this new methodology, an assessment was carried out for the 1975 Viking landings on Mars. The resulting probability of contamination for each Viking lander is 6 x 10 to the -6 power, and is amenable to revision as additional information becomes available.

North, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Forbidden transition probabilities for ground terms of ions with p or p5 configurations

Forbidden transition probabilities are given for ground term transitions of ions in the isoelectronic sequences with outer configurations 2s2 2p (B I), 2p5 (F I), 3s2 3p (Al I), and 3p5 (Cl I). Tables give, for each ion, the ground term interval, the associated wavelength, the quadrupole radial integral, the electric quadrupole transition probability, and the magnetic dipole transition probability. Coronal lines due to some of these ions have been observed, while others are yet to be observed. The tales for the Al I and Cl I sequences include elements up to germanium.

Kastner, S. O.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Solution to a gene divergence problem under arbitrary stable nucleotide transition probabilities

A nucleic acid chain, L nucleotides in length, with the specific base sequence B(1)B(2) ... B(L) is defined by the L-dimensional vector B = (B(1), B(2), ..., B(L)). For twelve given constant non-negative transition probabilities that, in a specified position, the base B is replaced by the base B' in a single step, an exact analytical expression is derived for the probability that the position goes from base B to B' in X steps. Assuming that each base mutates independently of the others, an exact expression is derived for the probability that the initial gene sequence B goes to a sequence B' = (B'(1), B'(2), ..., B'(L)) after X = (X(1), X(2), ..., X(L)) base replacements. The resulting equations allow a more precise accounting for the effects of Darwinian natural selection in molecular evolution than does the idealized (biologically less accurate) assumption that each of the four nucleotides is equally likely to mutate to and be fixed as one of the other three. Illustrative applications of the theory to some problems of biological evolution are given.

Holmquist, R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Massey, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Surface sticking probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103

The capture coefficient probabilities for sputtered atoms of Nb-93 and Rh-103 incident on Al2O3 surfaces were measured using the backscattering of MeV heavy ions. In the circumstance where the collecting surface is thickly covered, the sticking probabilities integrated over the energy distribution of sputtered atoms are 0.97 plus or minus 0.01 for Nb-93 and 0.95 plus or minus 0.01 for Rh-103 respectively. In the limit of negligible areal coverage of the collector, the accuracy is less; in this case the sticking probabilities are 0.97 + 0.03 or -0.08 and 0.95 + 0.05 or -0.08.

Weller, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Bivariate normal, conditional and rectangular probabilities: A computer program with applications

Some results for the bivariate normal distribution analysis are presented. Computer programs for conditional normal probabilities, marginal probabilities, as well as joint probabilities for rectangular regions are given: routines for computing fractile points and distribution functions are also presented. Some examples from a closed circuit television experiment are included.

Swaroop, R.↗