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Reliability Growth Modeling and Testing

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling

Modeling Reliability Growth

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling

Scaled CMOS Reliability and Considerations for Spacecraft Systems: Bottom-Up and Top-Down Perspective

New space missions will increasingly rely on more advanced technologies because of system requirements for higher performance, particularly in instruments and high-speed processing. Component-level reliability challenges with scaled CMOS in spacecraft systems from a bottom-up perspective have been presented. Fundamental Front-end and Back-end processing reliability issues with more aggressively scaled parts have been discussed. Effective thermal management from system-level to the componentlevel (top-down) is a key element in overall design of reliable systems. Thermal management in space systems must consider a wide range of issues, including thermal loading of many different components, and frequent temperature cycling of some systems. Both perspectives (top-down and bottom-up) play a large role in robust, reliable spacecraft system design.

Scaled CMOS

Dendritic web-type solar cell mini-modules

Twenty-five minimodules composed of dendritic web solar cells with nominal glass size of 12 by 40 cm were provided for study. The modules were identical with respect to design, materials, and manufacturing and assembly processes to full scale modules. The modules were also electrically functional. These minimodules were fabricated to provide test vehicle for environmental testing and to assess reliability of process and design procedures. The module design and performance are outlined.

Campbell, R. B.

Computer Reliability

Using a NASA developed program, Dr. J. Walter Bond is creating a course in computer reliability modeling. The course will examine three different computer programs, one of them NASA's Care III, the others UCLA's Aries 78 and Aries 82. All three are designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant, fault tolerant system. In computer design, software of this kind can predict or model the effects of various hardware or software failures, a process called reliability modeling.

Source record

Evaluation of ceramics for stator application: Gas turbine engine report

Current ceramic materials, component fabrication processes, and reliability prediction capability for ceramic stators in an automotive gas turbine engine environment are assessed. Simulated engine duty cycle testing of stators conducted at temperatures up to 1093 C is discussed. Materials evaluated are SiC and Si3N4 fabricated from two near-net-shape processes: slip casting and injection molding. Stators for durability cycle evaluation and test specimens for material property characterization, and reliability prediction model prepared to predict stator performance in the simulated engine environment are considered. The status and description of the work performed for the reliability prediction modeling, stator fabrication, material property characterization, and ceramic stator evaluation efforts are reported.

Trela, W.

Structural control research and experiments at NASA/LaRC

The advances made in the area of structural dynamics and control using the flexible beam facility at the NASA Langley Research Center are surveyed. Spectral attention is given to the progress in adaptive control and reliability improvements using advanced control concepts. Both theoretical and experimental results are given to delineate the nature of the work being undertaken. With regard to adaptive control, emphasis is placed on parameter and system identification and on comparisons between competing on-line algorithms. In addition, results are presented for on-line modal control laws that are interfaced to a parameter identification scheme. This gives an on-line distributed adaptive control system. With regard to reliability, a design process is outlined that incorporates reliability over the design mission life.

Montgomery, R. C.

A Single-Block TRL Test Fixture for the Cryogenic Characterization of Planar Microwave Components

The High-Temperature-Superconductivity (HTS) group of the RF Technology Branch, Space Electronics Division, is actively involved in the fabrication and cryogenic characterization of planar microwave components for space applications. This process requires fast, reliable, and accurate measurement techniques not readily available. A new calibration standard/test fixture that enhances the integrity and reliability of the component characterization process has been developed. The fixture consists of 50 omega thru, reflect, delay, and device under test gold lines etched onto a 254 microns (0.010 in) thick alumina substrate. The Thru-Reflect-Line (TRL) fixture was tested at room temperature using a 30 omega, 7.62 mm (300 mil) long, gold line as a known standard. Good agreement between the experimental data and the data modelled using Sonnet's em(C) software was obtained for both the return (S(sub 11)) and insertion (S( 21)) losses. A gold two-pole bandpass filter with a 7.3 GHz center frequency was used as our Device Under Test (DUT), and the results compared with those obtained using a Short-Open-Load-Thru (SOLT) calibration technique.

Mejia, M.

Evaluation of Aluminum Polymer Capacitors for Space Applications

Layered aluminum polymer capacitors (APC) may be viable replacements to currently used chip tantalum capacitors due to their lower ESR, weight, and smaller size. So far, there is a lack of information regarding the reliability of these parts. Available technical literature is mostly related to the effect of humidity. Although APCs have a limited moisture resistance, it may be contained to the level sufficient for space applications. This work analyzes construction and characteristics of seven types of commercial APCs manufactured by four vendors and rated to voltages from 6.3 to 35 V were analyzed. Their reliability under environmental stresses and highly accelerated life tests was assessed in the range of temperatures and voltages to determine reliability acceleration factors. For this purpose, characteristics of the parts, including breakdown voltages, the level of anomalous charging currents (ACC), capacitance, DF, ESR and leakage currents were measured in the process of storage at high-temperatures (from 100 to 150 °C) and high humidity at 85 °C. Monitored highly accelerated life tests have been carried out at temperatures of 85 °C and 125 °C and voltages varying from 1.2 to 1.9 times the rated voltage. Degradation processes and reliability of APCs have been compared to polymer tantalum capacitors.

Alexander A Teverovsky

Autonomous Control of Space Nuclear Reactors

Nuclear reactors to support future robotic and manned missions impose new and innovative technological requirements for their control and protection instrumentation. Long-duration surface missions necessitate reliable autonomous operation, and manned missions impose added requirements for failsafe reactor protection. There is a need for an advanced instrumentation and control system for space-nuclear reactors that addresses both aspects of autonomous operation and safety. The Reactor Instrumentation and Control System (RICS) consists of two functionally independent systems: the Reactor Protection System (RPS) and the Supervision and Control System (SCS). Through these two systems, the RICS both supervises and controls a nuclear reactor during normal operational states, as well as monitors the operation of the reactor and, upon sensing a system anomaly, automatically takes the appropriate actions to prevent an unsafe or potentially unsafe condition from occurring. The RPS encompasses all electrical and mechanical devices and circuitry, from sensors to actuation device output terminals. The SCS contains a comprehensive data acquisition system to measure continuously different groups of variables consisting of primary measurement elements, transmitters, or conditioning modules. These reactor control variables can be categorized into two groups: those directly related to the behavior of the core (known as nuclear variables) and those related to secondary systems (known as process variables). Reliable closed-loop reactor control is achieved by processing the acquired variables and actuating the appropriate device drivers to maintain the reactor in a safe operating state. The SCS must prevent a deviation from the reactor nominal conditions by managing limitation functions in order to avoid RPS actions. The RICS has four identical redundancies that comply with physical separation, electrical isolation, and functional independence. This architecture complies with the safety requirements of a nuclear reactor and provides high availability to the host system. The RICS is intended to interface with a host computer (the computer of the spacecraft where the reactor is mounted). The RICS leverages the safety features inherent in Earth-based reactors and also integrates the wide range neutron detector (WRND). A neutron detector provides the input that allows the RICS to do its job. The RICS is based on proven technology currently in use at a nuclear research facility. In its most basic form, the RICS is a ruggedized, compact data-acquisition and control system that could be adapted to support a wide variety of harsh environments. As such, the RICS could be a useful instrument outside the scope of a nuclear reactor, including military applications where failsafe data acquisition and control is required with stringent size, weight, and power constraints.

Merk, John

Application of a Rapid Design Tool to a 3D Woven Structural Joint

The optimization of composite structural joints is an iterative process and a multiscale problem. High fidelity finite element modeling of joints with 3D woven and laminated materials can become computationally expensive. The aim of this paper is to establish a reliable analysis process for the optimization of a composite Y-joint (curved Pi-joint), to be used in an aircraft fuselage, using commercial rapid joint design, analysis, and optimization software. The rapid joint design tool was investigated as a substitute and/or complement to a finite element analysis software. A composite Pi-joint and a composite Y-joint were evaluated using the rapid joint design tool to determine the applicability and limits of the software. Furthermore, three main preliminary parametric studies were performed to better understand the capability of the tool in predicting the stress distributions and trends in the Y-joint. The parameters investigated were the joint curvature, the laminated skin thickness, the adhesive systems, and the ply composition. Lastly, trends in predicted failure load were produced as a function of skin thickness (16ply, 24ply and 32ply). Failure loads were found with varying joint curvature and skin thickness using stress-based adherend failure criterion. The rapid joint design tool was also validated against existing experimental results.

Bonded Joints

Symmetric Phase-Only Filtering in Particle-Image Velocimetry

Symmetrical phase-only filtering (SPOF) can be exploited to obtain substantial improvements in the results of data processing in particle-image velocimetry (PIV). In comparison with traditional PIV data processing, SPOF PIV data processing yields narrower and larger amplitude correlation peaks, thereby providing more-accurate velocity estimates. The higher signal-to-noise ratios associated with the higher amplitude correlation peaks afford greater robustness and reliability of processing. SPOF also affords superior performance in the presence of surface flare light and/or background light. SPOF algorithms can readily be incorporated into pre-existing algorithms used to process digitized image data in PIV, without significantly increasing processing times. A summary of PIV and traditional PIV data processing is prerequisite to a meaningful description of SPOF PIV processing. In PIV, a pulsed laser is used to illuminate a substantially planar region of a flowing fluid in which particles are entrained. An electronic camera records digital images of the particles at two instants of time. The components of velocity of the fluid in the illuminated plane can be obtained by determining the displacements of particles between the two illumination pulses. The objective in PIV data processing is to compute the particle displacements from the digital image data. In traditional PIV data processing, to which the present innovation applies, the two images are divided into a grid of subregions and the displacements determined from cross-correlations between the corresponding sub-regions in the first and second images. The cross-correlation process begins with the calculation of the Fourier transforms (or fast Fourier transforms) of the subregion portions of the images. The Fourier transforms from the corresponding subregions are multiplied, and this product is inverse Fourier transformed, yielding the cross-correlation intensity distribution. The average displacement of the particles across a subregion results in a displacement of the correlation peak from the center of the correlation plane. The velocity is then computed from the displacement of the correlation peak and the time between the recording of the two images. The process as described thus far is performed for all the subregions. The resulting set of velocities in grid cells amounts to a velocity vector map of the flow field recorded on the image plane. In traditional PIV processing, surface flare light and bright background light give rise to a large, broad correlation peak, at the center of the correlation plane, that can overwhelm the true particle- displacement correlation peak. This has made it necessary to resort to tedious image-masking and background-subtraction procedures to recover the relatively small amplitude particle-displacement correlation peak. SPOF is a variant of phase-only filtering (POF), which, in turn, is a variant of matched spatial filtering (MSF). In MSF, one projects a first image (denoted the input image) onto a second image (denoted the filter) as part of a computation to determine how much and what part of the filter is present in the input image. MSF is equivalent to cross-correlation. In POF, the frequency-domain content of the MSF filter is modified to produce a unitamplitude (phase-only) object. POF is implemented by normalizing the Fourier transform of the filter by its magnitude. The advantage of POFs is that they yield correlation peaks that are sharper and have higher signal-to-noise ratios than those obtained through traditional MSF. In the SPOF, these benefits of POF can be extended to PIV data processing. The SPOF yields even better performance than the POF approach, which is uniquely applicable to PIV type image data. In SPOF as now applied to PIV data processing, a subregion of the first image is treated as the input image and the corresponding subregion of the second image is treated as the filter. The Fourier transforms from both the firs and second- image subregions are normalized by the square roots of their respective magnitudes. This scheme yields optimal performance because the amounts of normalization applied to the spatial-frequency contents of the input and filter scenes are just enough to enhance their high-spatial-frequency contents while reducing their spurious low-spatial-frequency content. As a result, in SPOF PIV processing, particle-displacement correlation peaks can readily be detected above spurious background peaks, without need for masking or background subtraction.

Wemet, Mark P.

Friction Stir Welding Development at NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center

This paper presents an overview of friction stir welding (FSW) process development and applications at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). FSW process development started as a laboratory curiosity but soon found support from many users. The FSW process advanced very quickly and has found many applications both within and outside the aerospace industry. It is currently being adapted for joining key elements of the Space Shuttle External Tank for improved producibility and reliability. FSW process modeling is done to better understand and improve the process. Special tools have been developed to weld variable thickness materials including thin and thick materials. FSW is now being applied to higher temperature materials such as copper and to advanced materials such as metal matrix composites. FSW technology is being successfully transferred from MSFC laboratory to shop floors of many commercial companies.

Bhat, Biliyar N.

Friction Stir Welding Development at National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Marshall Space Flight Center

This paper presents an over-view of friction stir welding (FSW) process development and applications at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). FSW process development started as a laboratory curiosity but soon found support from many users. The FSW process advanced very quickly and has found many applications both within and outside the aerospace industry. It is currently being adapted for joining key elements of the Space Shuttle External Tank for improved producibility and reliability. FSW process modeling is done to better understand and improve the process. Special tools have been developed to weld variable thickness materials including very thin and very thick materials. FSW is now being applied to higher temperature materials such as copper and to advanced materials such as metal matrix composites. FSW technology is being successfully transferred from MSFC laboratory to shop floors of many commercial companies.

Bhat, Biliyar N.

Stress Testing of Chip Aluminum Polymer Capacitors

Layered aluminum polymer capacitors (APC) may be viable replacements to current chip tantalum capacitors due to their lower ESR, weight, and smaller size. So far, there is a lack of information regarding the reliability of these parts. Available technical literature is mostly related to the effect on humidity. Although APCs have a limited moisture resistance, it may be contained to the level sufficient for space applications. In this work, seven types of commercial APCs manufactured by four vendors and rated to voltages from 6.3 to 35 V were used to evaluate reliability of the parts under environmental stresses and highly accelerated life tests. Characteristics of the parts, including breakdown voltages, the level of anomalous charging currents (ACC), capacitance, DF, ESR and leakage currents were measured in the process of storage at high-temperatures (from 100 to 150 °C) and high humidity at 85 °C. Monitored highly accelerated life tests have been carried out at temperatures of 85 °C and 125 °C and voltages varying from 1.2 to 1.9 times the rated voltage. Degradation processes and reliability of APCs have been analyzed and compared to polymer tantalum capacitors.

Alexander Teverovsky

Upper and lower bounds for semi-Markov reliability models of reconfigurable systems

This paper determines the information required about system recovery to compute the reliability of a class of reconfigurable systems. Upper and lower bounds are derived for these systems. The class consists of those systems that satisfy five assumptions: the components fail independently at a low constant rate, fault occurrence and system reconfiguration are independent processes, the reliability model is semi-Markov, the recovery functions which describe system configuration have small means and variances, and the system is well designed. The bounds are easy to compute, and examples are included.

White, A. L.

Semantic Search with Sentence-BERT for Design Information Retrieval

Managing and referencing design knowledge is a critical activity in the design process. However, reliably retrieving useful knowledge can be a frustrating experience for users of knowledge management systems due to inherent limitations of standard keyword-based searches. In this research, we consider the task of retrieving relevant lessons learned from the NASA Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). To this end, we apply a state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) technique for information retrieval (IR): semantic search with sentence-BERT, which is a modification of a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model that uses siamese and triplet network architectures to obtain semantically meaningful sentence embeddings. While the pre-trained sBERT model performs well out-of-the-box, we further fine-tune the model on data from the LLIS so that it learns on design engineering-relevant vocabulary. We quantify the improvement in query results using both standard sBERT and fine-tuned sBERT over a keyword search. Our use case throughout the paper is to use queries related to specific requirements from a NASA project. Fine tuning the sBERT model on LLIS data yields a mean average precision (MAP) of 0.807 on queries based on information needs from a real NASA project. Results indicate that applying state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques, especially when finetuned using engineering data, to design information retrieval tasks shows significant promise in modernizing design knowledge management systems.

Hannah S. Walsh