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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2001

Are US Great Plains Droughts Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

The United States has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years. In this talk, I will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2001

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Microwave Remote Sensing and the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment

The Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) has been designed to advance our understanding of the terrestrial cryosphere. Developing a more complete understanding of fluxes, storage, and transformations of water and energy in cold land areas is a critical focus of the NASA Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy, the NASA Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) Initiative, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), and the GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP). The movement of water and energy through cold regions in turn plays a large role in ecological activity and biogeochemical cycles. Quantitative understanding of cold land processes over large areas will require synergistic advancements in 1) understanding how cold land processes, most comprehensively understood at local or hillslope scales, extend to larger scales, 2) improved representation of cold land processes in coupled and uncoupled land-surface models, and 3) a breakthrough in large-scale observation of hydrologic properties, including snow characteristics, soil moisture, the extent of frozen soils, and the transition between frozen and thawed soil conditions. The CLPX Plan has been developed through the efforts of over 60 interested scientists that have participated in the NASA Cold Land Processes Working Group (CLPWG). This group is charged with the task of assessing, planning and implementing the required background science, technology, and application infrastructure to support successful land surface hydrology remote sensing space missions. A major product of the experiment will be a comprehensive, legacy data set that will energize many aspects of cold land processes research. The CLPX will focus on developing the quantitative understanding, models, and measurements necessary to extend our local-scale understanding of water fluxes, storage, and transformations to regional and global scales. The experiment will particularly emphasize developing a strong synergism between process-oriented understanding, land surface models and microwave remote sensing. The experimental design is a multi-sensor, multi-scale (1-ha to 160,000 km ^ {2}) approach to providing the comprehensive data set necessary to address several experiment objectives. A description focusing on the microwave remote sensing components (ground, airborne, and spaceborne) of the experiment will be presented.

Kim, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

1999 NCCS Highlights

The NASA Center for Computational Sciences (NCCS) is a high-performance scientific computing facility operated, maintained and managed by the Earth and Space Data Computing Division (ESDCD) of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Earth Sciences Directorate. The mission of the NCCS is to advance leading-edge science by providing the best people, computers, and data storage systems to NASA's Earth and space sciences programs and those of other U.S. Government agencies, universities, and private institutions. Among the many computationally demanding Earth science research efforts supported by the NCCS in Fiscal Year 1999 (FY99) are the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project, the NASA Search and Rescue Mission, Earth gravitational model development efforts, the National Weather Service's North American Observing System program, Data Assimilation Office studies, a NASA-sponsored project at the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, a NASA-sponsored microgravity project conducted by researchers at the City University of New York and the University of Pennsylvania, the completion of a satellite-derived global climate data set, simulations of a new geodynamo model, and studies of Earth's torque. This document presents highlights of these research efforts and an overview of the NCCS, its facilities, and its people.

Bennett, Jerome↗
NASA NTRS2002

Predictability Associated with Land Surface Moisture States: Studies with the NSIPP System

Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Koster, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Causes of Long-Term Drought in the United States Great Plains

This study examines the causes of long term droughts in the United States Great Plains (USGP). The focus is on the relative roles of slowly varying SSTs and interactions with soil moisture. The results from ensembles of long term (1930-1999) simulations carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that the SSTs account for about 1/3 of the total low frequency rainfall variance in the USGP. Results from idealized experiments with climatological SST suggest that the remaining low frequency variance in the USGP precipitation is the result of interactions with soil moisture. In particular, simulations with soil moisture feedback show a five-fold increase in the variance in annual USGP precipitation compared with simulations in which the soil feedback is excluded. In addition to increasing variance, the interactions with the soil introduce year-to-year memory in the hydrological cycle that is consistent with a red noise process, in which the deep soil is forced by white noise and damped with a time scale of about 2 years. As such, the role of low frequency SST variability is to introduce a bias to the net forcing on the soil moisture that drives the random process preferentially to either wet or dry conditions.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Temperature Data Assimilation with Salinity Corrections: Validation for the NSIPP Ocean Data Assimilation System in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, 1993-1998

The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) has developed an Ocean data assimilation system to initialize the quasi-isopycnal ocean model used in our experimental coupled-model forecast system. Initial tests of the system have focused on the assimilation of temperature profiles in an optimal interpolation framework. It is now recognized that correction of temperature only often introduces spurious water masses. The resulting density distribution can be statically unstable and also have a detrimental impact on the velocity distribution. Several simple schemes have been developed to try to correct these deficiencies. Here the salinity field is corrected by using a scheme which assumes that the temperature-salinity relationship of the model background is preserved during the assimilation. The scheme was first introduced for a zlevel model by Troccoli and Haines (1999). A large set of subsurface observations of salinity and temperature is used to cross-validate two data assimilation experiments run for the 6-year period 1993-1998. In these two experiments only subsurface temperature observations are used, but in one case the salinity field is also updated whenever temperature observations are available.

Troccoli, Alberto↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl

During the 1930s the United States experienced one of the most devastating droughts of the last century. The drought affected almost 2/3 of the country and parts of Mexico and Canada and was infamous for the numerous dust storms that lead to the characterization of much of the Great Plains as the "Dust Bowl". Results from an ensemble of 100-year simulations with the NASA Seasonal- to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SSTs show that the model reproduces the basic features of the 1930s drought. In t h s study we exploit this realism in the model simulation to examine in more detail the role of the SST and soil moisture in the development and maintenance the 1930s drought. Results will be presented from simulations in which the SST anomalies are confined to the separate ocean basins, as well as from runs in which soil moisture feedback is turn off.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2004

Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations are supplemented with output form the DOE Reanalysis-2.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl

The 1930s was characterized by a decade of rainfall deficits and high temperatures that desiccated much of the United States Great Plains. Numerous dust storms created one of the most severe environmental catastrophes in U.S. history and led to the popular characterization of much of the southern Great Plains as the Dust Bowl . In this study, we show that the origin of the drought was in the anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures that occurred during that decade. We further show that interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface were essential to the development of the severe drought conditions. The results are based on simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project general circulation model forced with observed and idealized sea surface temperatures. We contrast the 1930s drought with other major droughts of the 20th century, and speculate on the possibility of another Dust Bowl developing in the foreseeable future.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl

During the 1930s the United States experienced one of the most devastating droughts of the last century. The drought affected almost 2/3 of the country and parts of Mexico and Canada and was infamous for the numerous dust storms that lead to the characterization of much of the Great Plains as the 'Dust Bowl'. Results from an ensemble of 100-year simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed SSTs show that the model reproduces the basic features of the 1930s drought. In this study we exploit this realism in the model simulation to examine in more detail the role of the SST and soil moisture in the development and maintenance the 1930s drought. Results will be presented from simulations in which the SST anomalies are confined to the separate ocean basins, as well as from runs in which soil moisture feedback is turn off.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2003

Meridional Propagation of the MJO/ISO and Asian Monsoon Variability

In this study we examine the links between tropical heating, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)/Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO), and the Asian monsoon. We are particularly interested in isolating the nature of the poleward propagation of the ISO/MJO in the monsoon region. We examine both observations and idealized "MJO heating" experiments employing the NASA Seasonal-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). In the idealized 10-member ensemble simulations, the model is forced by climatological SST and an idealized eastward propagating heating profile that is meant to mimic the canonical heating associated with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. In order to understand the impact of SST on the off equatorial convection (or Rossby-wave response), a second set of 10-member ensemble simulations is carried out with the climatological SSTs shifted in time by 6-months. The observational analysis highlights the strong link between the Indian summer monsoon and the tropical ISO/MJO activity and heating. This includes the well-known meridional propagation that affects the summer monsoons of both hemispheres. The AGCM experiments with the idealized eastward propagating MJO-like heating reproduce the observed meridional propagation including the observed seasonal differences. The impact of the SSTs are to enhance the magnitude of the propagation into the summer hemispheres. The results suggest that the winter/summer differences associated with the MJO/ISO are auxiliary features that depend on the MJO's environment (basic state and boundary conditions) and are not the result of fundamental differences in the MJO itself.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Update on Experimental Climate Prediction and Analysis Products Being Developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Introduction to the NASA GMAO Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System - GEOS-S2S Version 3

Recently NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a new Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction system Version 3 (GEOS-S2S-3). This upgrade replaces the GEOS-S2S-2 which is NASA's current contribution to the North American Multi-Model Experiment seasonal prediction project (Kirtman et al., 2014). The main improvements for our S2S-3 system include 1) a higher resolution MOM5 (Griffies et al., 2005) ocean model (now 0.25o x 0.25o x 50 layers), 2) an improved atmospheric/ocean interface layer (Akella and Suarez, 2018), and 3) assimilation of a long-track satellite salinity into the ocean model (Hackert et al, 2019). Atmospheric forcing is provided by the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (Gelaro et al., 2017). Initialization for the ocean relies on the GMAO ocean reanalysis system which assimilates all available in situ temperature and salinity, satellite sea surface salinity, and sea level using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) implementation of (Penny et al., 2013) on a 5 day assimilation cycle with 20 fixed ensemble members.In this presentation, we will authenticate our new S2S-3 ocean reanalysis using standard GODAE validation metrics. For example, we will compare gridded fields of mean and standard deviation of the ocean reanalysis versus observed fields. We will show correlation/RMS of model versus observations and temperature and salinity mean profiles for the various basins and latitude bands. Basin-scale volume transports, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow will be validated. Equatorial ocean waves will be compared by decomposing sea level into Kelvin and Rossby components. For each of these metrics, we plan to validate the results and then compare our new S2S-3 against the current production version, S2S-2. Finally, we will compare 9-month seasonal forecasts initialized from these two systems for the tropical Pacific NINO3.4 region over the period 1981-present.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2024

Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) HyTEC Phase 1 – Advanced Aerodynamics Final Report

The objective of the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core (HyTEC) – Advanced High Pressure Turbine (HPT) Aerodynamics project is to develop technology for a compact core that contributes to significant fuel burn reductions of 5-10% over current generation technologies. To accomplish this, the HPT is incorporating a range of aerodynamic features and technologies to improve component efficiency and provide favorable systems level trades. In particular, this project explored low solidity airfoils, advanced tip treatments, platform contouring, and advanced ceramic matrix composite (CMC) Stage 2 Nozzle (S2N) airfoils to eliminate the need for post throat cooling in a compact core environment. The maturation of these technology areas is expected to provide a significant improvement in component efficiencies, and consequently reductions in fuel burn, over the current state of the art (SoA). To mature these technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4, a test campaign was performed that consisted of four tests at three facilities. TRL 3 testing was performed in the CW22 linear cascade at NASA Glenn for blade and nozzle technologies, TRL 4 nozzle testing was performed at GE Aerospace (GEA) Test Cell A8, and TRL 4 blade testing was performed at the Notre Dame Turbomachinery Laboratory (NDTL) using the Transonic Research Turbine (TRT) rig. Low solidity was successfully demonstrated to a TRL 4 level. Low solidity nozzles showed benefits in line with pre-project expectations, while low solidity blades were shown to have an aerodynamic penalty. Crucially, this program only considered the aerodynamic losses, and systems trades such as reductions in cooling flows are expected to continue to make low solidity blades a net positive. By successfully quantifying the aerodynamic performance in this project, these trades can be conducted to determine where in the engine architecture low solidity blades will contribute positively to system operation. Platform contouring was demonstrated to a TRL 4 level, with performance in line with the lower end of the pre-project expected range. Advanced tip treatments performance levels were indeterminate, showing the expected improvements to flow physics but with a performance level confounded by several rig issues including whirl mode induced variation in tip clearance. The elimination of post-throat cooling on the S2N was successfully demonstrated to provide a performance benefit, however that benefit was approximately half the level that was expected in pre-project predictions. Overall, the technology maturation plan for HyTEC Phase 1 was successful, bringing the suite of technologies to TRL 4.

High pressure turbine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 1

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024). Three distinct rounds of FSP experiments were performed by the experimental team, producing replicate samples utilizing across different nominal processing conditions (Condition IDs) listed in Table 1. The starting material on which FSP was applied was commercially available unprocessed stainless-steel type 316L material. Chosen processing conditions were very diverse, and some were intentionally chosen to produce defects. Several samples experienced tool breakage during experimentation, so a full set of three replicates was not produced for every nominal processing condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗