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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The planetary waves dynamics and interannual course of meteorological parameters of the high latitude stratosphere and mesosphere of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during the 20th and 21st solar cycles and different phases of QBO

The part of energy of the planetary waves which enters the stratosphere depends on conditions of planetary wave generation and propagation through the tropopause, and the part of planetary wave energy which enters the mesosphere depends on conditions of planetary wave propagation through the stratopause. An attempt is made to estimate connections between extratropical middle atmosphere temperature long term variations and portions of energy of planetary waves which enter the mesosphere and stratosphere during winter seasons in Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Interannual variations of temperatures at the 30 km and 70 km levels are investigated for the central winter months of the period 1970 to 1986. This period includes the descending branch of the 20th solar cycle and the whole 21st cycle. Calculations are made on the basis of measurements at Heiss Island and Molodezhnaya.

Kidiyarova, V. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO and its Modulation by Composition Feedbacks

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts the large-scale circulation by altering lower stratospheric meridional temperature gradients which alter the propagation of upward propagating planetary waves. Proposed teleconnections of the QBO include impacts on the stratospheric polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, long-term projections of the QBO remain highly uncertain. While recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) show that the amplitude of the QBO weakens robustly among models, changes in QBO period and stability remain highly uncertain. Here we examine the QBO response to increased greenhouse gases using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Middle Atmosphere Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). Compared to lower vertical resolution versions of ModelE, E2.2 also has a higher model top (0.002 hPa) and employs additional interactive non-orographic gravity wave drag sources from convection and shear, which produce a sufficiently realistic QBO, thus rendering it suitable for use in climate change studies. Overall, we find that both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO , the former related to increased lower stratospheric momentum fluxes (associated with convection) and the latter associated partly with a stronger residual mean circulation. Experiments integrated using fully interactive chemistry also reveal that ozone feedbacks significantly impact the magnitude of the QBO amplitude response. Finally, integrations using fixed (pre-industrial) sea surface temperatures (SST) show that the QBO amplitude responds differently to rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks, as compared to the QBO period.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quasi-biennial oscillations of ozone and diabatic circulation in the equatorial stratosphere

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone in the equatorial stratosphere is obtained by analyzing the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) data from 1984 to 1989. The phase of the ozone QBO in the lower stratosphere is found to precede the zonal wind QBO by several months as opposed to the theoretically expected in-phase relationship between the two. A mechanistic model is developed to explore possible reasons for this disagreement. The model is capable of simulating the actual time evolution of the ozone QBO by introducing the observed zonal wind profile as input. The modeled results confirm the conventional view that the ozone QBO is generated by the vertical ozone advection that is driven to maintain the temperature structure against radiative damping. However, a series of experiments emphasizes the importance of the feedback of the ozone QBO to the diabatic heating through the absorption of solar radiation. Due to this effect, the phase of the ozone QBO shifts up to a quarter cycle ahead and approaches that of the temperature QBO. Because of this inphase relationship, the feedback of the ozone QBO to the diabatic heating acts to compensate for the radiative damping of the temperature structure, thus reducing the magnitude of the induced diabatic circulation. Because the reduction of the magnitude of the vertical motion facilitates downward transport of easterly momentum by the mean flow, this feedback process can help to resolve the insufficiency of the easterly momentum in driving the dynamical QBO in general circulation models (GCMs). It should be emphasized that more sophisticated models that allow for full interaction between the chemical species and radiative and dynamical processes should be developed to improve our understanding of both dynamical and ozone QBOs.

Hasebe, Fumio↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modulations of Atmospheric River Climatology by the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation

Abstract This study reveals the significant Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) influences on the seasonal atmospheric river (AR) climatology around the globe. The North Pacific (NP) AR climatology in the boreal winter to early fall seasons in a QBO easterly (QBOE) phase is systematically shifted poleward compared with those in a QBO westerly (QBOW) phase, and such difference peaks in the local late spring season. We also find the similar poleward shift for the AR climatology over the South Pacific (SP) in the austral winter seasons in the QBOE phase. A significant equatorward shift and an overall enhancement of the AR climatology over the SP are observed in the QBOE phase during local spring and summer seasons, respectively. The QBO impacts on the AR climatology over the Atlantic Ocean are less organized. Strong QBO impacts exist in almost all seasons for the North Atlantic AR but only in the austral spring season for the South Atlantic AR. These QBO modulations of the AR climatology over the ocean basins also change the season‐mean AR frequencies around coastal regions, suggesting significant QBO impacts on the local land‐falling AR events. The QBO modulations of the seasonal background mean states and the MJO‐teleconnections are two potential mechanisms mostly over the north hemisphere. The QBOE modulation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)‐teleconnection over the northern hemisphere is asymmetric between the MJO convection over the Indian Ocean and that over the Pacific Ocean, which is the key to explain the QBO influences on the AR activity on the seasonal timescale.

Huang, Kai [U.S. National Science Foundation Natio↗
NASA NTRS1990

The role of the seasonal cycle in the quasi-biennial oscillation of ozone

The evidence for seasonal synchronization of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is reviewed, showing how this behavior is not expected on the basis of QBO transport alone but may arise due to the seasonal cycle. Near the equator, the ozone QBO is closely tied to the dynamical QBO and exhibits the same period as that oscillation. Maximum column ozone is attained soon after the transition to westerlies at 50 mb. In the subtropics, the ozone QBO is strongly tied to the seasonal cycle, with anomalies centered in the winter-spring season irrespective of QBO phase. These anomalies result from the interaction of the annual cycle and the QBO. Numerical model results are reported which establish that hemispheric asymmetry in the ozone QBO does not require seasonal asymmetries in the strength or location of the Hadley circulation. The fundamental cause of hemispheric asymmetry in the subtropical ozone QBO is the timing of equatorial, ozone anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle.

Gray, Lesley J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal Forecasting of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The ability to seasonally forecast the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) was examined using NASA S2S (Sub-seasonal to Seasonal), 9-month, retrospective forecasts. Validation of these forecasts showed that the S2S retrospective QBO forecasts improved skill in predicting the QBO amplitude and phase over a simple QBO phase propagation model at forecast lead times of 1 to 3 months. Results from an initial assessment of whether more accurate QBO forecasts can improve Northern Hemisphere winter sea level pressure forecasts showed no significant forecast improvement at a 1-month lead time, indicating the need for improved stratosphere-troposphere QBO coupling metrics and pathway identification. Overall, these results suggest that future improvements in representing the QBO in global models can increase the ensemble fraction of valid 1 to 3 month QBO forecasts and potentially extend useful QBO forecasts beyond 3 months.

Coy, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS2013

Net Influence of an Internally Generated Guasi-biennial Oscillation on Modelled Stratospheric Climate and Chemistry

A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2001

Two-Dimensional Model Simulations of Interannual Variability in the Tropical Stratosphere

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and constituent data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) are used to construct yearly zonal mean dynamical fields for the 1990s for use in the GSFC 2-D chemistry and transport model. This allows for interannual dynamical variability to be included in the model constituent simulations. In this study, we focus on the tropical stratosphere. We find that the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signals in equatorial CH4, and profile and total column 03 data is resolved quite well using this empirically- based 2-D model transport framework. However. the QBO amplitudes in the model constituents are systematically underestimated relative to the observations at most levels. This deficiency is probably due in part to the limited vertical resolutions of the 2-D model and the UKMO and UARS input data sets. We find that using different heating rate calculations in the model affects the interannual and QBO amplitudes in the constituent fields, but has little impact on the phase. Sensitivity tests reveal that the QBO in transport dominates the ozone interannual variability in the lower stratosphere. with the effect of the temperature QBO being dominant in the tipper stratosphere via the strong temperature dependence of the ozone loss reaction rates. We also find that the QBO in odd nitrogen radicals, which is caused by the QBO modulated transport of NOy, plays a significant but not dominant role in determining the ozone QBO variability in the middle stratosphere. The model mean age of air is in good overall agreement with that determined from tropical lower,middle stratospheric OMS balloon observations of SF6 and CO2. The interannual variability of tile equatorial mean age in the model increases with altitude and maximizes near 40 km, with a range, of 4-5 years over the 1993-2000 time period.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with the QBO period between 30 and 34 (or less than 30, presumably) months, the seasonal phase lock is weak. Solar flux radiance variations in the seasonal cycle then cause variations in the QBO period and phase that amplify the SCAE to produce relatively large variations in the wind field. These variations also extend to mid latitudes.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Recovery of the Disrupted Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

There occurred a unique and significant disruption of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-16. Here we document the return of the QBO to its normal downward phase speed and period based on Singapore soundings, MERRA-2 re-analysis (Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications), and a simple QBO model. Daily averaged zonal winds from 100-10 hPa are used to characterized the behavior of the QBO's amplitude and phase as seen in the first two EOFs (Empirical Orthogonal Functions). These EOFs capture the QBO structure and evolution during the pre-disruption, disruption, and post-disruption times. Results show that the amplitude and phase returned to normal by June 2016, however the post-disruption QBO phase was delayed relative to the pre-disruption phase by four tenths of a QBO cycle (~11 months). A rapid, seasonal, phase shift of this magnitude is shown to be unique in the QBO observational record.

Coy, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS1989

Influence of the annual cycle in meridional transport on the quasi-biennial oscillation in total ozone

The equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind and temperature is observed to be symmetric about the equator. The QBO in column ozone, although it is believed to be caused primarily by vertical displacements due to the meridional circulation associated with the equatorial temperature QBO, is asymmetric with respect to the equator, and is strongly linked to the phase of the annual cycle. In this note a simple one-layer model is used to demonstrate that the gross features of the observed QBO in total ozone can be attributed to meridional advection of the ozone perturbation by the annually reversing mean meridional Hadley circulation. This advection causes a displacement of the equatorial ozone anomaly toward the winter hemisphere, and thus produces an asymmetry with respect to the equator. It also modulates the amplitude of the ozone QBO, since the phase of the equatorial wind QBO with respect to the annual cycle may produce either constructive or destructive interference beween the effects of the annually reversing meridional transport and the vertical advection by the equatorial wind QBO.

Holton, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Manifestation of quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone vertical distribution

The quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) in ozone and temperature vertical distributions are studied on the basis of ozonesonde data of 21 stations. Maximum QBO amplitudes in ozone are noted in the 16-20 kn layer over Resolute (75N), Aspendale (38S) and in the northern mid-latitude band, but in the 20-24 km layer in the northern subtropical band. In the upper layers the QBO effect is less evident. In the tropospheric layer it is difficult to note the QBO-related effect in all the groups of the data. In all the layers where the QBO effect is noted the positive deviations precede, but the negative deviations follow the time of maximum of the easterly equatorial wind at 50 mb level. No essential differences in phase or amplitude characteristics of the ozone QBO were noted for the Aspendale data compared with that for the Northern Hemisphere data. The QBO-effect is not noted in the temperature data in the mid-latitudes. Above Resolute and in subtropics the ozone and temperature effects are roughly in phase each with other, except in the 28-32 km layer over subtropics, where they are opposite each to other.

Sitnov, Sergey A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Historical and Future Climate Change

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere. The QBO can be seen in stratospheric zonal wind, temperature, and composition, but it also has a number of teleconnections—including to the polar vortices, extratropical surface winter climate, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Thus, its future trends will have a signature on the surface. Recent multi-model investigations (Richter et al. 2019, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that a weakening of the QBO amplitude is very likely, but changes to QBO period and stability remain unclear, due in part to its highly parameterized nature. We investigate these aspects using multiple configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.2 (Rind et al., 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). As a high-top model with gravity wave drag partly sourced from (parameterized) convection, Model E2.2 includes key pathways for climate forcings to influence the QBO. Overall, both the period and amplitude decrease in response to increased CO2, with convection feedbacks critical for the period response, and ozone feedbacks enhancing the amplitude response. We use these results to interpret QBO trends in the historical and SSP integrations. Lastly, we examine the effect of volcanic eruptions on the QBO

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗