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At least 73 records · Page 4

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

Errors of five-day mean surface wind and temperature conditions due to inadequate sampling

Surface meteorological reports of wind components, wind speed, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature from buoys located in equatorial and midlatitude regions are used in a simulation of random sampling to determine errors of the calculated means due to inadequate sampling. Subsampling the data with several different sample sizes leads to estimates of the accuracy of the subsampled means. The number N of random observations needed to compute mean winds with chosen accuracies of 0.5 (N sub 0.5) and 1.0 (N sub 1,0) m/s and mean air and sea surface temperatures with chosen accuracies of 0.1 (N sub 0.1) and 0.2 (N sub 0.2) C were calculated for each 5-day and 30-day period in the buoy datasets. Mean values of N for the various accuracies and datasets are given. A second-order polynomial relation is established between N and the variability of the data record. This relationship demonstrates that for the same accuracy, N increases as the variability of the data record increases. The relationship is also independent of the data source. Volunteer-observing ship data do not satisfy the recommended minimum number of observations for obtaining 0.5 m/s and 0.2 C accuracy for most locations. The effect of having remotely sensed data is discussed.

Legler, David M.↗

Variability of reflectance measurements with sensor altitude and canopy type

Data were acquired on canopies of mature corn planted in 76 cm rows, mature soybeans planted in 96 cm rows with 71 percent soil cover, and mature soybeans planed in 76 cm rows with 100 percent soil cover. A LANDSAT band radiometer with a 15 degree field of view was used at ten altitudes ranging from 0.2 m to 10 m above the canopy. At each altitude, measurements were taken at 15 cm intervals also a 2.0 m transect perpendicular to the crop row direction. Reflectance data were plotted as a function of altitude and horizontal position to verify that the variance of measurements at low altitudes was attributable to row effects which disappear at higher altitudes where the sensor integrate across several rows. The coefficient of variation of reflectance decreased exponentially as the sensor was elevated. Systematic sampling (at odd multiples of 0.5 times the row spacing interval) required fewer measurements than simple random sampling over row crop canopies.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation of near-terminal aircraft flight paths

The flight paths of arriving and departing aircraft at an airport are stochastically represented. Radar data of the aircraft movements are used to decompose the flight paths into linear and curvilinear segments. Variables which describe the segments are derived, and the best fitting probability distributions of the variables, based on a sample of flight paths, are found. Conversely, given information on the probability distribution of the variables, generation of a random sample of flight paths in a Monte Carlo simulation is discussed. Actual flight paths at Dulles International Airport are analyzed and simulated.

Schiess, J. R.↗

Absolute proper motions to B approximately 22.5: Evidence for kimematical substructure in halo field stars

Radial velocities have been obtained for six of nine stars identified on the basis of similar distances and common, extreme transverse velocities in the proper motion survey of Majewski (1992) as a candidate halo moving group at the north Galactic pole. These radial velocities correspond to velocities perpendicular to the Galactic plane which span the range -48 +/- 21 to -128 +/- 9 km/sec (but a smaller range, -48 +/- 21 to -86 +/- 19 km/sec, when only our own measurements are considered), significantly different than the expected distribution, with mean 0 km/sec, for a random sample of either halo or thick disk stars. The probability of picking such a set of radial velocities at random is less than 1%. Thus the radial velocity data support the hypothesis that these stars constitute part of a halo moving group or star stream at a distance of approximately 4-5 kpc above the Galactic plane. If real, this moving group is evidence for halo phase space substructure which may be the fossil remains of a destroyed globular cluster, Galactic satellite, or Searle & Zinn (1978) 'fragment.'

Majewski, Steven R.↗

Compositional and Geochronological Constraints on the Lunar Cataclysm from Planetary Samples

Radiometric dating and compositional clustering of lunar impact-melt rocks form the backbone of the lunar cataclysm hypothesis. Precise age determinations of Apollo and Luna impact-melt rocks define the classic formulation of the cataclysm: a large number of samples 3.9 Ga old, a steep decline after 3.9 Ga, and few impact rocks older than ~4.0 Ga. Lunar meteorites more randomly sample the lunar surface, but impact-melt clasts in these rocks show the same apparent age cutoff at 4.0 Ga (though their ages extend approx.500 Myr later). Neither do impact-formed glass spherules and fragments, formed by impacts of all sizes throughout lunar history, predate 4.0 Ga. Geological associations between compositional groups of impact-melt rocks and specific impact basins imply that five large basins formed on the Moon within 200 Myr but a counter-argument postulates they are all products of the Imbrium basin-forming impact; it is not yet proven whether groups of impact melt that are resolvable from each other in age and in trace-element composition represent multiple impacts. The 3.9 Ga age peak and subsequent steep decline are not well mirrored in meteorite data. Radiometric ages in ordinary chondrites and HED meteorites peak around 3.9 Ga but ages older and younger than 3.9 Ga are common. Among Martian meteorites, there is a single impact-related age: ALH 84001 was shocked at 3.92 Ga. Differences in relative impact velocity, impact-melt production, and sampling rate could explain differences between the meteorite and lunar records. One way to anchor the early end of the lunar flux is to directly sample the impact-melt sheet of a large lunar basin distant from Imbrium, such as the South Pole-Aitken basin, where melt rocks probably still resides on the basin floor and could be directly sampled by a human or robotic mission.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗

Structure of nonevaporating sprays - Measurements and predictions

Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays (SMD of 30 and 87 microns) injected into a still air environment, including: mean and fluctuating gas velocities and Reynolds stress using laser-Doppler anemometry; mean liquid fluxes using isokinetic sampling; drop sizes using slide impaction; and drop sizes and velocities using multiflash photography. The new measurements were used to evaluate three representative models of sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop interaction with turbulent fluctuations were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of both interphase slip and turbulent fluctuations were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models were unsatisfactory for present test conditions-both underestimating flow widths and the rate of spread of drops. In contrast, the SSF model provided reasonably accurate predictions, including effects of enhanced spreading rates of sprays due to drop dispersion by turbulence, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗

Total Lightning Observations of Extreme Weather Events over the Contiguous United States

The overall objective is to investigate total lightning characteristics of extreme weather events over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) LIS (Lightning Image Sensor) and OTD (Optical Transient Detector) satellite observations. A large LIS (10+ years) and OTD (5 years) data base is available to study the instantaneous total or cloud-to-ground (CG) plus intracloud (IC) lightning characteristics of extreme weather events. More specifically, the LIS and OTD data are combined with National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations to examine the total and CG lightning flash rate and density, the IC:CG ratio, and positive CG percentage. These instantaneous lightning characteristics can be used for basic science studies to better understand the physical and dynamical linkages between lightning and precipitation and their environmental controls. They can also provide a first-look of extreme weather events leading up to future satellite observations (e.g., NOAA GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper [GLM]) for use in climate studies and the short-term prediction and warning process. Extreme weather events are defined by the NOAA Storm Data reports of tornadoes, large hail (at least 0.75 inch) and strong straight-line winds (at least 50 kts). Over CONUS, there are over 70,000 severe storm reports in the TRMM spatial domain (< 35 N) from 1998-2007 and over 100,000 storm reports in the OTD spatial domain (5/1995-4/2000). Temporal co-location is on the order of 1% (i.e., 1000 s of coincident overpasses), providing a statistically significant sample of instantaneous total lightning properties. This instantaneous behavior of lightning in extreme weather is then compared to that of typical thunderstorm events, or randomly sampled LIS/OTD events in which the extreme events have been eliminated from the population. Results describing the instantaneous behavior of total lightning within a large sample of extreme and typical thunderstorms over CONUS will be presented. When possible, coincident VHF lightning observations from the ground-based Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) are compared to the LIS/OTD optical lightning signatures, providing a validation source for instantaneous space-based optical lightning properties and a means to extend lightning inferences over the life-cycle of extreme weather.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

An evaluation of selected NASA scientific and technical information products: Results of a pilot study

A pilot study was conducted to evaluate selected NASA scientific and technical information (STI) products. The study, which utilized survey research in the form of a self-administered mail questionnaire, had a two-fold purpose -- to gather baseline data regarding the use and perceived usefulness of selected NASA STI products and to develop/validate questions that could be used in a future study concerned with the role of the U.S. government technical report in aeronautics. The sample frame consisted of 25,000 members of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in the U.S. with academic, government or industrial affiliation. Simple random sampling was used to select 2000 individuals to participate in the study. Three hundred fifty-three usable questionnaires (17 percent response rate) were received by the established cutoff date. The findings indicate that: (1) NASA STI is used and is generally perceived as being important; (2) the use rate for NASA-authored conference/meeting papers, journal articles, and technical reports is fairly uniform; (3) a considerable number of respondents are unfamiliar with STAR (Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports), IAA (International Aerospace Abstracts), SCAN (Selected Current Aerospace Notices), and the RECON on-line retrieval system; (4) a considerable number of respondents who are familiar with these media do not use them; and (5) the perceived quality of NASA-authored journal articles and technical reports is very good.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

FOCIS: A forest classification and inventory system using LANDSAT and digital terrain data

Accurate, cost-effective stratification of forest vegetation and timber inventory is the primary goal of a Forest Classification and Inventory System (FOCIS). Conventional timber stratification using photointerpretation can be time-consuming, costly, and inconsistent from analyst to analyst. FOCIS was designed to overcome these problems by using machine processing techniques to extract and process tonal, textural, and terrain information from registered LANDSAT multispectral and digital terrain data. Comparison of samples from timber strata identified by conventional procedures showed that both have about the same potential to reduce the variance of timber volume estimates over simple random sampling.

Strahler, A. H.↗

The Oxygen Isotopic Composition of Samples Returned From Asteroid Ryugu With Implications for the Nature of the Parent Planetesimal

We present oxygen isotopic analyses of fragments of the near-Earth C b -type asteroid Ryugu returned by the Hayabusa2 spacecraft that reinforce the close correspondence between Ryugu and CI chondrites. Small differences between Ryugu samples and CI chondrites in ∆' 17 O can be explained at least in part by contamination of the latter by terrestrial water. The discovery that a randomly sampled C-complex asteroid is composed of CI-chondrite-like rock, combined with thermal models for formation prior to significant decay of the short-lived radioisotope 26 Al, suggests that if lithified at the time of alteration, the parent body was small (<<50 km radius). If the parent planetesimal was large (>50 km in radius), it was likely composed of high-permeability, poorly lithified sediment rather than consolidated rock.

Asteroids↗

Uncertainty Estimates for Fitting Zernike Polynomials to Discrete Data

Zernike polynomials are a widely used metric in modern optical analysis. They conveniently represent surfaces as a series of weighted terms corresponding to various optical aberrations. Ideally, each term is independent of others in the series, but Zernike polynomials lose this property when working with sets of discrete data. This gives rise to uncertainty in each polynomial’s actual contribution and affects metrology and simulation estimates of their relative weights. Several factors influencing these estimates are the number and arrangement of sample locations, the method for calculating the weights, and the total number of Zernike terms used in the calculation. Discussed is the uncertainty associated with linear regression using random sampling. Other topics reviewed are complex Zernike polynomials and vector spaces of functions.

Zernike Polynomials↗

A Large Ordinary Chondrite Shower in the Dominion Range

The US Antarctic Meteorite Program has visited the Dominion Range in the Transantarctic Mountains during several different seasons, including the 1985, 2003, 2008, 2010, and 2014 seasons. Total recovered meteorites from this region is over 2000. The 2008 and 2010 seasons have been fully classified and, respectively) revealing the presence of a large meteorite shower that comprises approximately 60% of all samples recovered in those two seasons. The oil immersion classification suggests that this shower is LL chondrite material, whereas published magnetic susceptibility (MS; log chi) measurements yield L chondrite values. However, usually random sampling of a large collection like this would uncover EOC material for which we have prepared thin sections. In this case, no LL chondrite materials have been found in thin section, suggesting that the shower might instead be an L chondrite. L and LL chondrites are notoriously difficult to distinguish using oil immersion techniques. To better characterize this large group of samples, we have decided to examine some of the large members of this group, using EMPA analysis of the olivines to verify the classifications. With a compositional link between this subset of samples, and the MS measurements, we can more confidently classify the samples making up this pairing group. Subsequently, more accurate and meaningful comparisons may be drawn between this pairing group and some other Antarctic pairing groups such as from the Queen Alexandra Range (QUE), and Lewis Cliffs Ice Tongue (LEW). electron microprobe analysis

Satterwhite, C. E.↗

Land use and pollution patterns on the Great Lakes

The author has identified the following significant results. The final mapping of the large watersheds of the Manitowoc and the Oconto was done using the 25% sampling approach. Comparisons were made with earlier strip mapping efforts of the Oconto and Manitowoc watersheds. Regional differences were noted. Strip mapping of the Oconto resulted in overestimation of the amount of agricultural land compared to the random sampling method. For the Manitowoc, the strip mapping approach produced a slight underestimate of agricultural land, and an overestimate of the forest category.

Haugen, R. K.↗

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Card, D. H.↗