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NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say No?
Historically, NASA human spaceflight planning has included healthy doses of life cycle cost analysis. Planners put projects and their cost estimates in a budget context. Estimated costs became expected budgets. Regardless, real budgets rarely matched expectations. So plans would come and go as NASA canceled projects. New projects would arise and the cycle would begin again. Repeatedly, NASA schedule and performance ambitions come up against costs growing at double-digit rates while budgets barely rise a couple of percent a year. Significant skepticism greets proposed NASA programs at birth, as cost estimates for new projects are traditionally very high, and worse, far off the mark for those carried forward. In this environment the current "capability driven framework" for NASA human spaceflight evolved, where long term life cycle cost analysis are even viewed as possibly counter-productive. Here, a space exploration project, for example the Space Launch System, focuses on immediate goals. A life cycle is that of a project, not a program, and for only that span of time to a near term milestone like a first test launch. Unfortunately, attempting to avoid some pitfalls in long-term life cycle cost analysis breeds others. Government audits have noted that limiting the scope of cost analysis "does not provide the transparency necessary to assess long-term affordability" making it difficult to understand if NASA "is progressing in a cost-effective and affordable manner." Even in this short-term framework, NASA realizes the importance of long-term considerations, that it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", that this is "critical to free resources for re-investment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." Assuming the value of long-term life cycle cost analysis, where due diligence meets reconnaissance, and accepting past shortcomings, the work here approaches life cycle cost analysis for human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere, moving around slices in a pie, scenario planning can get at the heart of the matter, growing the pie, transforming it, and making the pieces relevant. Especially important is the question of sustainability for different scenarios in the broad sense of the word - not just the narrow ability to survive or continue, but also the ability to adapt, prosper and grow.
UniKP: a unified framework for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters
Prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters is essential for designing and optimizing enzymes for various biotechnological and industrial applications, but the limited performance of current prediction tools on diverse tasks hinders their practical applications. Here, we introduce UniKP, a unified framework based on pretrained language models for the prediction of enzyme kinetic parameters, including enzyme turnover number (k cat ), Michaelis constant (K m ), and catalytic efficiency (k cat / K m ), from protein sequences and substrate structures. A two-layer framework derived from UniKP (EF-UniKP) has also been proposed to allow robust k cat prediction in considering environmental factors, including pH and temperature. In addition, four representative re-weighting methods are systematically explored to successfully reduce the prediction error in high-value prediction tasks. We have demonstrated the application of UniKP and EF-UniKP in several enzyme discovery and directed evolution tasks, leading to the identification of new enzymes and enzyme mutants with higher activity. UniKP is a valuable tool for deciphering the mechanisms of enzyme kinetics and enables novel insights into enzyme engineering and their industrial applications.
PyTUQ: Python Toolkit for Uncertainty Quantification
SAND2025-03661O PyTUQ is a user-friendly software toolkit designed to help researchers and professionals understand and manage uncertainty in several scientific fields. By providing tools for analyzing how uncertainties affect outcomes, PyTUQ can be applied in areas such as energy production, and biology. Its unique approach allows users to make more informed decisions by assessing risks and improving predictions. Whether you're studying combustion processes or exploring complex biological systems, PyTUQ empowers you to gain deeper insights and enhance the reliability of your results. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Managing Uncertainty in Preliminary Aeroshell Design Analysis
An analysis tool to aid in preliminary design of re-entry aeroshells for interplanetary exploration is presented. The computational tool addresses a common feature of design analysis, the need to make use of results from several analysis regimes and from several sources.
Interaction of Airspace Partitions and Traffic Flow Management Delay with Weather
The interaction of partitioning the airspace and delaying flights in the presence of convective weather is explored to study how re-partitioning the airspace can help reduce congestion and delay. Three approaches with varying complexities are employed to compute the ground delays.In the first approach, an airspace partition of 335 high-altitude sectors that is based on clear weather day traffic is used. Routes are then created to avoid regions of convective weather. With traffic flow management, this approach establishes the baseline with per-flight delay of 8.4 minutes. In the second approach, traffic flow management is used to select routes and assign departure delays such that only the airport capacity constraints are met. This results in 6.7 minutes of average departure delay. The airspace is then partitioned with a specific capacity. It is shown that airspace-capacity-induced delay can be reduced to zero ata cost of 20percent more sectors for the examined scenario.
Asymmetric mass accretion in the magnetic cataclysmic variable RE 1149 + 28
We present the first detailed extreme photometric observations of a magnetic cataclysmic variable. Our two Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) observations of the AM Her star RE 1149 + 28 were obtained about 1 yr apart and show light-curve variations on orbital to yearly timescales, as well as long-term mean flux level changes of a factor of 2. The photometric data show a persistent ingress EUV enhancement which lasts approximately 0.04 in phase. We attribute this to a region of approximately 10(exp 3) km in extent at the accretion impact site, on or very near the surface of the white dwarf primary. Our observations of RE 1149 are consistent with a relatively low system inclination and provide a best-fit orbital period of 90.14 +/- 0.015 minutes.
Experimental study of vortex breakdown in a cylindrical, swirling flow
The stability of a steady, vortical flow in a cylindrical container with one rotating endwall has been experimentally examined to gain insight into the process of vortex breakdowwn. The dynamics of the flow are governed by the Reynolds number (Re) and the aspect ratio of the cylinder. Re is given by Omega R(sup 2)/nu, where Omega is the speed of rotation of the endwall, R is the cylinder radius, and nu is the kinematic viscosity of the fluid filling the cylinder. The aspect ratio is H/R, where H is the height of the cylinder. Numerical simulation studies disagree whether or not the steady breakdown is stable beyond a critical Reynolds number, Re(sub c). Previous experimental researches have considered the steady and unsteady flows near Re(sub c), but have not explored the stability of the steady breakdown structures beyond this value. In this investigation, laser induced fluorescence was utilized to observe both steady and unsteady vortex breakdown at a fixed H/R of 2.5 with Re varying around Re(sub c). When the Re of a steady flow was slowly increased beyond Re(sub c), the breakdown structure remained steady even though unsteadiness was possible. In addition, a number of hysteresis events involving the oscillation periods of the unsteady flow were noted. The results show that both steady and unsteady vortex breakdown occur for a limited range of Re above Re(sub c). Also, with increasing Re, complex flow transformations take place that alter the period at which the unsteady flow oscillates.
Evolution and Impact of Saturn V on Space Launch System from a Guidance, Navigation, and Mission Analysis Perspective
The Saturn V launch vehicle represented a jump in capability for heavy lift launch vehicles, enabling the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous approach to planetary exploration employed by the Apollo program 50 years ago. Following Apollo, and the development of the Space Transportation System, the NASA space exploration program shifted focus from lunar exploration to long-term, sustained, re-usable access to Low Earth Orbit. With the recent focus of NASA on the Artemis program and continued exploration of cislunar space as a precursor to Martian exploration, the shift has swung back to heavy lift capability. To meet this need, NASA has developed the Space Launch System. While the vehicle is a new design, it is heavily influenced by the engineering solutions and approach used on the Saturn V while taking advantage of the state of the art of launch vehicle design. The approach to abort, for example, shares many familiarities with the triggers and concept of operations used on Saturn V. Analysis approaches to dispersed trajectory performance are also very similar, but advances in computing technology have enabled a much more expanded set of inputs that can be modelled and assessed in a rapid manner. Additionally, guided flight algorithms share similar first principles but have expanded to include day of launch wind information. Trajectory optimization has also advanced significantly due to the availability of computing resources, but similar maneuvers and profiles are flown across both vehicles. Also, while the approach of onboard inertial navigation has been maintained between the two programs, the shift from platform to strapdown systems enables reduced complexity in the system design while maintaining required performance. As described, the Space Launch System is the evolution of NASA launch vehicle designs, owing a large heritage to the Saturn vehicle program and incorporating advances in propulsion systems, avionics, computing, and sensor technology over the past 50 years.
Soliton formation and topology manipulation of coupled spins via ultrafast re-magnetization
The major goal of the project was to explore the properties of magnetic order driven far out of equilibrium by optical excitations. These include fundamental questions related to the interplay of magnetic, structural and electronic degrees of freedom in materials that are optically excited. These problems break down in short term quenching of the magnetization as a results of the energy of the optical pulse studying how the energy of the optical pulse and the angular momentum of the magnetization flow between the different degrees of freedom. This is followed by the longer time re-emergence of the magnetism as the system cools. Within this goal we explored the formation of solitons, both with and without non-trivial topology, via rapid re-magnetization processes after optical-driven ultrafast demagnetization. Guided by theory, we predict that turbulence and modulational instabilities will drive the formation of solitons, including dispersive shock waves, magnon droplets, and skyrmions. In the case of topological defect formation, i.e. skyrmion generation, related processes have long been predicted based on general principles of symmetry-breaking phase transitions; the density of topological defects in a long-range-ordered phase can be controlled by varying the quench rate through the second-order phase transition, i.e. the Kibble-Zurek (KZ) mechanism. We, more broadly, had the goal to study a range of other emergent magnetic behaviors after optical excitation. While great attention has been given to ultrafast demagnetization, less is known of the subsequent spin dynamics and coupling to the lattice. What is increasingly appreciated is that ultrafast demagnetization leads to spin currents that can carry angular momentum from the rapidly demagnetized sample. These spin currents appear in many ways but fundamentally controls demagnetization, drives interactions between regions of the material, and control the spin resulting structure. They can be probed many ways including THz emission which, in turn, gives insight into the demagnetization processes. Simultaneously if there is magneto-elastic coupling ultrafast demagnetization can drive structural excitations that are not expected from thermal energy added to the lattice. We explored a range of complex phenomena that arise from photo-excitation of magnetic systems with the coupling of electronic, magnetic and structural degrees of freedom. We have made a number of fundamental discoveries that are reflected in our publications list with additional work still being prepared for publication. Highlights of this work include (i) ultra-efficient, nonlinear THz surface acoustics (ii) spin-current-mediated rapid magnon localization and coalescence, (iii) spin-wave soliton formation in ferromagnetic FePt nanoparticles, (iv) dynamic phonon coupling in elemental antiferromagnetic Cr, (v) THz emission from Co/Pt bilayers and FeRh/Pt bilayers, (vi) theoretical investigation of spin hydrodynamics, solitons and shock waves, and (vii) ultrafast perturbation of magnetic domains by optical pumping.
Effects of composition and growth parameters on phase formation in multicomponent aluminum garnet crystals
The effects of composition on the phase formation of multicomponent garnet crystals grown via directional solidification by the micro-pulling-down method are studied. A relatively wide range of rare-earth (RE) average ionic radii (AIR) is explored by formulating ten compositions from the system (Lu,Y,Ho,Dy,Tb,Gd) 3 Al 5 O 12 . Crystals were grown at either 0.05 or 0.20 mm min -1 . The hypothesis is that multicomponent compounds with large AIR will form secondary phases as the single-RE aluminum garnets formed by larger Tb 3+ or Gd 3+ ; this will result in crystals of poor optical quality. Crystals with large AIR have a central opaque region in optical microscopy images, which is responsible for their reduced transparency compared to crystals with small AIR. Slow pulling rates suppress the formation of the opaque region in crystals with intermediate AIR. Powder and single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron probe microanalysis results indicate that the opaque region is a perovskite phase. Scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy measurements reveal eutectic inclusions at the outer surface of the crystals. Finally, the concentration of the eutectic inclusions increases with increasing AIR.
The discovery of Ni V in the photospheres of the hot DA white dwarfs RE 2214-492 and G191-B2B
We have co-added six recently obtained International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) echelle spectra of the hot DA white dwarf RE 2214-492 and 10 existing archive spectra of the well-known hot DA, G191-B2B. We find that both stars contain numerous weak features due to Ni V. Nickel is thus the second iron-group element to be found in the spectra of the very hottest DA white dwarfs. In addition to Ni V, we also observe Al III in both stars and present evidence for the possible presence of Ni IV and Fe IV in RE 2214-492. The presence of Ni and Al, together with previously reported elements, will contribute significantly to both the EUV opacity and to the apparent complexity of the UV spectra of these stars. Using Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) model atmospheres we estimate the Ni abundances in RE 2214-492 the G191-B2B to be log(Ni/H) = -5.5 +/- 0.3 and -6.0 +/- 0.3, respectively.
The effect of rare earth (RE 3+ ) ionic radii on transparent lanthanide-tellurite glass-ceramics: correlation between ‘hole-formalism’ and crystallization
Rare earth (RE) doped transparent tellurite glass-ceramics (GCs) are widely explored for their application as advanced photonic materials. Specifically, the growth of RE based “anti-glass” crystalline phases in transparent GCs enhances their effective functionality. Enormous studies on the properties of GCs revealed that optimization of glass composition and heat-treatment schedule are the foremost factors that affect the transparency of the GCs. Nevertheless, the direct effect of RE 3+ ions on the crystallization mechanism of glass has hardly been reported. Therefore, a base glass of the composition La 2 O 3 –Gd 2 O 3 –TiO 2 –TeO 2 (LGTT) is doped with RE 3+ ions (Ce 3+ , Pr 3+ , Nd 3+ , Sm 3+ , Eu 3+ , Tb 3+ , and Dy 3+ ) with varied ionic radii. Rietveld refinement from XRD of GCs confirms that (La/Gd) 2 Te 6 O 15 phases are precipitated, where dopants Ce, Pr and Nd occupy La sites, while Sm, Eu, Tb, and Dy occupy Gd sites. The configurational heat-capacity (ΔC p ) from DSC is found to be lower for larger ionic radii REs (Ce, Pr, Nd) than smaller ionic radii REs (Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy) thereby exhibiting higher chemical ordering followed by faster crystal growth rate in the former. However, the transparency retention profile of different RE-doped GCs follows the trend Eu:Tb > Sm:Dy > Nd > Pr > Ce, confirming the ionic radii effect. In addition to the ionic radii effect, in this work, we propose a ‘Hole-Formalism’ concept to explain the observed trend. It is further corroborated with an identical neutron diffraction pattern and ΔC p values for these ion pairs Sm 3+ : Dy 3+ (4f 5 : 4f 9 ) and Eu 3+ : Tb 3+ (4f 6 : 4f 8 ) results in a similar crystallization mechanism, transmission profile and fine-scale microstructures of these RE-based tellurite GCs.
Preliminary Comparison of Skin Friction Measurements with CFD Predictions
The work to be described was performed at the NASA Langley UPWT (4-ft supersonic), test section #2, during 21-24 May 1996. The configuration being tested was the 1.675% Ref H controls model; test conditions were Ma = 2.40, Re = 3 million/ft. This was an exploration of a new technique, and it was not intended to provide definitive comparison of measured and computed skin friction results. It is, however, hoped that the experience gained will make such a rigorous comparison possible in the future.
Intermittency and Cessation of Vortex Shedding in the Wake of a Thin Flat Plate with a Circular Trailing Edge
The near and very near wake of thin flat plates with both sharp and circular trailing edges (TEs) are investigated with direct numerical simulations (DNSs). The TE is circular in two of the cases (IN & NS) and sharp in one of them (ST). The separating boundary layers are turbulent in all cases. The objectives of this study are twofold. The first is to explore the effect of significantly reducing Re(sub D) (Reynolds number based on circular TE diameter, D) on the flow in the TE region, and the shedding process (Cases IN and NS). The second is to better understand the reasons underlying the findings of an earlier experimental wake investigation (sharp TE) where (1) the center-line values in normal intensity, and the peak in shear stress profiles in the cross-stream direction, were found to first increase in the streamwise direction (x), from that obtained at the TE, before diminishing further downstream, and (2) a broadband peak was observed in centerline cross-stream velocity (v) spectra (indicating quasi-periodicity, possibly due to vortices or wave-like motions). Case ST from the present study showed a near wake instability resulting in spanwise vortices (with a streamwise component). The instability is intermittent and contributes to both the broadband peak in the v spectrum and the initial increases in normal intensity and shear stress (as in the experiment). Case NS, with the lower value of ReD is an "essentially" non-shedding case where the flow in the TE region continually changes direction (upward/downward) because of turbulence. Case IN, with twice the value of ReD as Case NS, also exhibits a swaying motion in the TE region. In addition, vortex shedding is initiated during periods when the flow direction changes rapidly. Shedding in this case is intermittent. It results in a peak in the v spectrum obtained at the centerline (x/D = 1.0).
Charging Experiments and Filtration Testing on Facemask Materials: Towards Goals of Full Performance Restoration of Used N95 Masks and Enhancement of Common-Fabric Facemasks
Different techniques have been developed for sanitizing N95 masks while retaining whatever charge remains on them. However, these sanitizing methods do not address the fact that the electrical charge, filtration efficacy, and breathability of such masks may be expected to degrade during long-term use based on mechanisms known in the literature. In this study, approaches to electrically (re)charging facemask filter materials were explored in response to the COVID-19 induced shortage of N95 masks. The effort consisted of charging experiments followed by filtration testing conducted at the coupon level during a month-long period (May 2020). The main focus of the work was to develop a recharging technique which could eventually be adapted and used as part of a broader full-performance restoration process for used N95 masks, e.g., which might employ simple washing by alcohol or soapy water as a preceding step for sanitization and declogging. Most tested coupons were therefore nonwoven meltblown fibrous polypropylene (PP) filter media extracted from decades old N95 masks. Keeping in mind commonly used cloth facemasks, limited trials were also performed with some commercially available fabrics. Charging was done at elevated temperature and was followed by cooling to freeze in the applied charges produced from corona discharges using different electrode configurations and parameter combinations, or from triboelectric rubbing. Charging was also focused on using potentially scalable equipment, e.g., Van de Graaff generators or consumer ionic hair products. Some degree of success was achieved with one of the fabrics and the PP filter media which was first purposefully discharged to have typical filtration efficiency (FE) of ~35%. Numerous attempts at corona charging discharged media resulted in filtration efficiency (FE) ≥ 80 – 85%. Some measure of charge robustness was also established via stable performance during loading testing. However, results where FE ≥ 90% were not reliably repeatable and no results met the FE ≥ 95% goal due to shortcomings of the charging process. The best three trials for PP media statistically met the FE ≥ 90% criteria, amounted to a small percentage of the trials relying on an ionic hair dryer, and are attributed to good embedding of charges via aerodynamic force. Triboelectric charging significantly enhanced the viability of one of the polyester fabrics –measured FE increased from 19% up to 46% while maintaining a reasonably low pressure drop.
Thermal Development of the Mars 2020 Enhanced Engineering Cameras
The engineering cameras (ECAMs) of the 2003 Mars Exploration Rover (MER) mission were re-flown on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission that launched in 2011. The upcoming Mars 2020 rover mission will introduce a new fleet of cameras called the enhanced engineering cameras (EECAMs). These EECAMs will have improved imaging capability, as the technology of the past ECAMs flown on Mars surface missions have become outdated. The EECAMs include six upgraded HazCams, two upgraded NavCams, and a single, newly-conceived CacheCam. The purposes of the HazCams and NavCams remain the same as they were for MER and MSL: to detect hazards to the front and rear of the rover, and to help in navigation across the Martian surface. The CacheCam will be used to take images of samples obtained by the rover’s Sample Caching System. This paper compares the differences in the thermal designs of the ECAMs and EECAMs, their design drivers, and their implications for the mission operations of the Mars 2020 rover.
Kaona: Deep Searching and Curating Data from Aviation Safety Reporting Systems
Context: Several works in the literature have examined how safety narrative databases can be leveraged to share lessons learned. However, less attention has been given to augmenting existing processes for mining these safety reporting system databases. Aim: In this work, we introduce Kaona: An interface that weaves machine learning in existing aviation safety database mining activities. Method: We provide a use case of search, curation and newsletter writing to showcase how Kaona features build on existing processes and on its own to enhance information retrieval, curation and synthesis of narratives. Results: We created two instances of Kaona internally for evaluation, one using publicly available NASA’s ASRS narratives and another using publicly available C3RS narratives. Data ranged from 1998 to 2024. Conclusion: Our tool provides a new way to explore safety narratives, serving to re-imagine how text databases can benefit of novel information retrieval mechanisms in the era of large language models.