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At least 73 records · Page 4

Ice-Covered Lakes in Gale Crater Mars: The Cold and Wet Hypothesis

Recent geological discoveries from the Mars Science Laboratory provide evidence that Gale crater may have intermittently hosted a fluvio-lacustine environment during the Hesperian, with individual lakes lasting for a period of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015). Estimates of the CO2 content of the atmosphere at the time the Gale sediments formed are far less than needed by any climate model to warm early Mars (Bristow et al., Geology, submitted), given the low solar energy input available at Mars 3.5 Gya. We have therefore explored the possibility that the lakes in Gale during the Hesperian were perennially covered with ice using the Antarctic Lakes as an analog. Using our best estimate for the annual mean surface temperature at Gale at this time (approx. 230K) we computed the thickness of an ice-covered lake. These thickness range from 10-30 meters depending on the ablation rate and ice transparency and would likely inhibit sediments from entering the lake. Thus, a first conclusion is that the ice must not be too cold. Raising the mean temperature to 245K is challenging, but not quite as hard as reaching 273K. We found that a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters. These values are comparable to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (3-6 m), and are not implausible. And they are not so thick that sediments cannot penetrate the ice. For the ice-covered lake hypothesis to work, however, a melt water source is needed. This could come from subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lakes (as is the case for Lake Untersee) or from seasonal melt water from nearby glaciers (as is the case for the Dry Valley lakes). More work is needed to better assess these possibilities. However, the main advantage of the ice-covered lake model (and the main reason we pursued it) is that it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle involving rainfall and runoff, which no climate model is able to produce given known constraints on the early Mars environment.

Antarctic lakes↗

The Ancient Martian Climate System

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable at the surface. But there is evidence that very early in its history, some 3.7-4.1 billion years ago, the climate system supported much warmer conditions including an active hydrological cycle with rainfall and runoff. Given the importance of liquid water to astrobiology and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, researchers have been trying to understand the ancient martian climate system since the early 1970s when the Mariner 9 spacecraft first detected fluvial features on its oldest terrains. Though the evidence for warm wet conditions is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed the sun’s luminosity was ~25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of ancient Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the “Faint Young Sun Paradox”, as it is commonly known, rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, for Mars there is no solution in sight. Long-lived continuously warm and wet atmospheres are difficult to produce and sustain. And a new and emerging idea - that ancient Mars was fundamentally a cold planet with transient episodes of warm wet conditions brought about by external forcings such as impacts, volcanism, and/or orbital changes – also has issues. In this seminar I will review this fascinating topic and discuss some of the recent ideas on how to solve it, the issues they raise, and what I believe are some promising avenues for future research.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

Variability of Snow and Rainfall Partitioning Into Evapotranspiration and Summer Runoff Across Nine Mountainous Catchments

Abstract Understanding the partitioning of snow and rain contributing to either catchment streamflow or evapotranspiration (ET) is of critical relevance for water management in response to climate change. To investigate this partitioning, we use endmember splitting and mixing analyses based on stable isotope ( 18 O) data from nine headwater catchments in the East River, Colorado. Our results show that one third of the snow partitions to ET and 13% of the snowmelt sustains summer streamflow. Only 8% of the rainfall contributes to the summer streamflow, because most of the rain (67%) partitions to ET. The spatial variability of precipitation partitioning is mainly driven by aspect and tree cover across the sub‐catchments. Catchments with higher tree cover have a higher share of snow becoming ET, resulting in less snow in summer streamflow. Summer streamflow did not contain more rain with higher rainfall sums, but more rain was taken up in ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measuring and modeling soil moisture and runoff at solar farms using a disconnected impervious surface approach

Abstract Ground‐mounted photovoltaic sites are often treated as impervious surfaces in stormwater permits. This ignores the pervious soils beneath and between solar arrays and leads to an overestimation of runoff. Our objective was to improve solar farm stormwater hydrology models by explicitly considering the disconnected impervious nature of solar design and site characteristics. Experimental sites established on utility scale solar farms in Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, New York, and Oregon had perennial vegetative plantings with mean precipitation ranging from 40.6 to 124.5 cm, and soil texture ranging from loamy sand to clay. Soil moisture measurements were collected beneath arrays, under drip edges, and in the vegetated area between arrays at each site. Hydrus‐3D models for soil moisture and stormwater hydrology were developed that accounted for precipitation falling on solar panels, drip edge redistribution of rainfall, infiltration, and runoff in the pervious areas between solar arrays and beneath panels. Drip edge runoff averaged 3‐ to 10‐times incident precipitation at the New York and Minnesota sites, respectively. Root mean square error values between measured sub‐hourly soil moisture and predicted moisture for large measured single storm events averaged 0.029 across all five sites. Predicted runoff depths were strongly affected by precipitation depth, soil texture, soil profile depth, and soil bulk density. Runoff depths across the five experimental sites averaged 13%, 25%, and 45% of the 2‐, 10‐, and 100‐year design storm depths, clearly showing that these solar farms do not behave like impervious surfaces, but rather as disconnected impervious surfaces with substantial infiltration of runoff in the vegetated areas between and beneath solar arrays.

Agriculture↗

TRITON

TRITON is a 2D hydraulic, digital elevation model (DEM)-based model that accepts a variety of flow inputs including point-based inflow hydrographs, external boundary conditions, and runoff (i.e., excess rainfall). It provides information of flood maps and temporal evolution of water depth at each grid cell point at user-specified output time. Its unique feature is that TRITON can run on single or multiple CPUs and GPUs, proving to be very flexible in terms of system architecture.

Morales-Hernandez, Mario↗

Applications of remote sensing to hydrologic planning

The transfer of LANDSAT remote sensing technology from the research sector to user operational applications requires demonstration of the utility and accuracy of LANDSAT data in solving real problems. This report describes such a demonstration project in the area of water resources, specifically the estimation of non-point source pollutant loads. Non-point source pollutants were estimated from land cover data from LANDSAT images. Classification accuracies for three small watersheds were above 95%. Land cover was converted to pollutant loads for a fourth watershed through the use of coefficients relating significant pollutants to land use and storm runoff volume. These data were input into a simulator model which simulated runoff from average rainfall. The result was the estimation of monthly expected pollutant loads for the 17 subbasins comprising the Magothy watershed.

Loats, H., Jr.↗

Remote sensing applications in hydrometeorology

Monitoring of precipitation using remote sensing has been carried out successfully over oceans with passive microwave data and over land with visible and infrared data. Further research is necessary to improve accuracy and timeliness of estimations in a variety of rainfall situations. Snowmelt runoff prediction has been demonstrated using satellite snowcover data. Snow depth and wetness measurements are feasible using microwave techniques. The monitoring of ice cover, type, and thickness has been carried out successfully using remote methods. Results from remote sensing evapotranspiration studies have been inconclusive. The remote measurement of evapotranspiration seems to be the most challenging of all applications of remote sensing to hydrometeorology.

Rango, A.↗

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

Understanding the distinct impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance in the central US using a numerical water-tagging technique

Warm-season rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central US is characterized by higher intensity and nocturnal timing compared to rainfall from non-MCS systems, suggesting their potentially different footprints on the land surface. To differentiate the impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance, a water tracer tool embedded in the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options (WT-Noah-MP) is used to numerically “tag” water from MCS and non-MCS rainfall separately during April to August (1997-2018) and track their transit in the terrestrial system. From the water-tagging results, over 50% of warm-season rainfall leaves the surface-subsurface system through evapotranspiration by the end of August, but non-MCS rainfall contributes a larger fraction. However, MCS rainfall plays a more important role in generating surface runoff. These differences are mostly attributed to the rainfall intensity differences. The higher intensity MCS rainfall tends to produce more surface runoff through infiltration excess flow and drives a deeper penetration of the rainwater into the soil. Over 70% of the top 10 percentile runoff is contributed by MCS rainfall, demonstrating its important contribution to local flooding. In contrast, lighter intensity non-MCS rainfall resides mostly in the top layer and contributes more to evapotranspiration through soil evaporation. Diurnal timing of rainfall has negligible effects on the flux partitioning for both MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Differences in soil moisture profiles for MCS and non-MCS rainfall and the resultant evapotranspiration suggest differences in their roles in soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks and ecohydrology.

Hu, Huancui↗

Stream Temperature Responses to Summer Urban Rain Events Along the Savannah River

The hydrological urban heat island (HUHI) is a recent facet of the urban heat island (UHI), describing thermal enhancement of bodies of water in response to urbanization. Although the forefront of this work has been studied for large Metropolitan areas, this effect on developing cities is currently unknown. To locally measure and quantify HUHI effects in a developing city, we utilized Multi-Radar Multi Sensor (MRMS) radar-derived rainfall data to estimate rainfall in the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) and the Savannah Metropolitan Area (SMA), two developing communities adjacent to the Savannah River. We analyzed mean temperature trends of two stream gauges measuring temperature at, and downstream of the central AMA and the SMA. Results show overall peak stream temperatures within AMA are reached within a 2hr timeframe with surge temperatures between 1-2 K, perhaps assisted by the presence of the Augusta Shoals further upstream. The SMA appears to have little HUHI effects due to urban greening and impacts to coastal meteorology. It is suggested that Moderate rainfall events (10-25mm of rainfall) have a significant correlation (~0.1 correlation coefficient with a significance level of 0.05) between stream temperature and rainfall, indicating potential warmer runoff input into the Savannah River. Although results seem promising, further research into moderate rainfall events are needed to determine the extent of the HUHI for AMA.

Wermter, Joseph E. [Savannah River National Labora↗

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗

Real-Time Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis for Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets-- both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers, In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences.

Adler, Robert↗

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗

Evolution of the global water cycle on Mars: The geological evidence

The geological evidence for active water cycling early in the history of Mars (Noachian geological system or heavy bombardment) consists almost exclusively of fluvial valley networks in the heavily cratered uplands of the planet. It is commonly assumed that these landforms required explanation by atmospheric processes operating above the freezing point of water and at high pressure to allow rainfall and liquid surface runoff. However, it has also been documented that nearly all valley networks probably formed by subsurface outflow and sapping erosion involving groundwater outflow prior to surface-water flow. The prolonged ground-water flow also requires extensive water cycling to maintain hydraulic gradients, but is this done via rainfall recharge, as in terrestrial environments?

Baker, V. R.↗

Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars

In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote identification of a gravel laden Pleistocene river bed

The abundance of gravel deposits is well known in certain areas across the Gulf of Mexico coastal plain, including lands within several National Forests. These Pleistocene gravels were deposited following periods of glacial buildup when ocean levels were down and the main river channels had cut deep gorges, leaving the subsidiary streams with increased gradients to reach the main channels. During the warm interglacial periods that followed each glaciation, melting ice brought heavy rainfall and torrents of runoff carrying huge sediment loads that separated into gravel banks below these steeper reaches where abraiding streams, developed. As the oceans rose again, filling in the main channels, these abraiding areas were gradually flattened and covered over by progressively finer material. Older terraces were uplifted by tectonic movements associated with the Gulf Coastal Plain, and the subsequent erosional processes gradually brought the gravels closer to the surface. The study area is located on the Kisatchie National Forest, in central Louisiana, near Alexandria. Details of the full study have been discussed elsewhere. The nearest source of chert is in the Ouachita Mountains located to the northeast. The Ouachita River flows south, out of these mountains, and in Pleistocene times probably carried these chert gravels into the vicinity of the present day Little River Basin which lies along the eastern boundary of the National Forest. Current day drainages cross the National Forest from west to east, emptying into the Little River on the east side. However, a north-south oriented ridge of hills along the west side of the Forest appears to be a recent uplift associated with the hinge line of the Mississippi River depositional basin further to the east, and 800,000 years ago, when these gravels were first deposited during the Williana interglacial period, the streams probably flowed east to west, from the Little River basin to the Red River basin on the west side of the Forest. Within the National Forest and north of Alexandria, along Fish Creek, and east and west of an area known as Breezy Hill, exist several small, worked out gravel pits on privately owned blocks of land, formerly used by the state and county road departments. The pattern presented by these pits gives the impression of a series of north-south drainages lacing through the Forest, probable tributaries to Fish Creek which flows south of east from the west side of the Forest to empty into the Little River. Because of this predominant north-south pattern, no consideration was given to areas between these drainages during early gravel exploration efforts.

Scholen, Douglas E.↗

Comparing morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth using integral-geometry and neural maps

We compare morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth in order to confine the formation process of Martian valley networks. Basins on both planets are computationally extracted from digital topography. Integral-geometry methods are used to represent each basin by a circularity function that encapsulates its internal structure. The shape of such a function is an indicator of the style of fluvial erosion. We use the self-organizing map technique to construct a similarity graph for all basins. The graph reveals systematic differences between morphologies of basins on the two planets. This dichotomy indicates that terrestrial and Martian surfaces were eroded differently. We argue that morphologies of Martian basins are incompatible with runoff from sustained, homogeneous rainfall. Fluvial environments compatible with observed morphologies are discussed. We also construct a similarity graph based on the comparison of basins hypsometric curves to demonstrate that hypsometry is incapable of discriminating between terrestrial and Martian basins. INDEX TERMS: 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology (1625); 1886 Hydrology: Weathering (1625); 5415 Planetology: Solid Surface Planets: Erosion and weathering; 6225 Planetology: Solar System Objects Mars. Citation: Stepinski, T. F., and S. Coradetti (2004), Comparing morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth using integral-ge

Stepinski, T. F.↗