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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Lidar backscattering measurements of background stratospheric aerosols

A comparative lidar-dustsonde experiment was conducted in San Angelo, Texas, in May 1974 in order to estimate the uncertainties in stratospheric-aerosol backscatter for the NASA Langley 48-inch lidar system. The lidar calibration and data-analysis procedures are discussed. Results from the Texas experiment indicate random and systematic uncertainties of 35 and 63 percent, respectively, in backscatter from a background stratospheric-aerosol layer at 20 km.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A probabilistic approach to the dynamic analysis of ducts subjected to multibase harmonic and random excitation

The dynamic behavior of the discharge duct of the high-pressure oxidizer turbopump of a cryogenic rocket motor is investigated analytically. The probabilistic analysis program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress; Cruse et al., 1988) is used to treat the uncertainties due to random and harmonic excitation (e.g., pump noise, pump-induced harmonics, and combustion noise), variations in engine inlet pressure, and changes in system damping. The load modeling procedure, the variation in power-spectral density in different zones of the engine structure, and the dynamic structural-analysis technique are described, and the numerical results of the NESSUS analysis are presented in extensive tables and graphs and discussed in detail.

Debchaudhury, Amit↗
NASA NTRS2011

Supersonic Retropropulsion Experimental Results from the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

A new supersonic retropropulsion experimental effort, intended to provide code validation data, was recently completed in the Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2 over the Mach number range from 2.4 to 4.6. The experimental model was designed using insights gained from pre-test computations, which were instrumental for sizing and refining the model to minimize tunnel wall interference and internal flow separation concerns. A 5-in diameter 70-deg sphere-cone forebody with a roughly 10-in long cylindrical aftbody was the baseline configuration selected for this study. The forebody was designed to accommodate up to four 4:1 area ratio supersonic nozzles. Primary measurements for this model were a large number of surface pressures on the forebody and aftbody. Supplemental data included high-speed Schlieren video and internal pressures and temperatures. The run matrix was developed to allow for the quantification of various sources of experimental uncertainty, such as random errors due to run-to-run variations and bias errors due to flow field or model misalignments. Preliminary results and observations from the test are presented, while detailed data and uncertainty analyses are ongoing.

Berry, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗
NASA NTRS1972

Error analysis of bent ray radio occultation measurments

There are two types of experimental measurement errors of the Doppler data associated with the radio occultation, random and systematic. Random errors are due to thermal noise in the transmission channel, and the phase lock loop, and quantization error in the digital circuitry. These are called noise type errors. The systematic errors are due to geometric uncertainty and equipment phase instability. Considered is the amount of uncertainty, due to random measurement errors, in the refractivity profiles reconstructed by this type of indirect sensing experiment. A class of refractivity profiles is defined which approximately fit the set of measured data. Bounds are placed on the extent of this class of solution profiles. To accomplish this, the sensivity of the reconstructed refractivity profiles to errors in the measured quantity and the statistics of the errors in the measurement are examined.

Saintgermain, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Supersonic Retro-Propulsion Experimental Design for Computational Fluid Dynamics Model Validation

The development of supersonic retro-propulsion, an enabling technology for heavy payload exploration missions to Mars, is the primary focus for the present paper. A new experimental model, intended to provide computational fluid dynamics model validation data, was recently designed for the Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2. Pre-test computations were instrumental for sizing and refining the model, over the Mach number range of 2.4 to 4.6, such that tunnel blockage and internal flow separation issues would be minimized. A 5-in diameter 70-deg sphere-cone forebody, which accommodates up to four 4:1 area ratio nozzles, followed by a 10-in long cylindrical aftbody was developed for this study based on the computational results. The model was designed to allow for a large number of surface pressure measurements on the forebody and aftbody. Supplemental data included high-speed Schlieren video and internal pressures and temperatures. The run matrix was developed to allow for the quantification of various sources of experimental uncertainty, such as random errors due to run-to-run variations and bias errors due to flow field or model misalignments. Some preliminary results and observations from the test are presented, although detailed analyses of the data and uncertainties are still on going.

Berry, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗
NASA NTRS2018

Toward Long-Term Aquatic Science Products from Heritage Landsat Missions

This paper aims at generating a long-term consistent record of Landsat-derived remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) products, which are central for producing downstream aquatic science products (e.g., concentrations of total suspended solids). The products are derived from Landsat-5 and Landsat-7 observations leading to Landsat-8 era to enable retrospective analyses of inland and nearshore coastal waters. In doing so, the data processing was built into the SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS) followed by vicariously calibrating Landsat-7 and -5 data using reference in situ measurements and near-concurrent ocean color products, respectively. The derived Rrs products are then validated using (a) matchups using the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data measured by in situ radiometers, i.e., AERONET-OC, and (b) ocean color products at select sites in North America. Following the vicarious calibration adjustments, it is found that the overall biases in Rrs products are significantly reduced. The root-mean-square errors (RMSE), however, indicate noticeable uncertainties due to random and systematic noise. Long-term (since 1984) seasonal Rrs composites over 12 coastal and inland systems are further evaluated to explore the utility of Landsat archive processed via SeaDAS. With all the qualitative and quantitative assessments, it is concluded that with careful algorithm developments, it is possible to discern natural variability in historic water quality conditions using heritage Landsat missions. This requires the changes in Rrs exceed maximum expected uncertainties, i.e., 0.0015 [1/sr], estimated from mean RMSEs associated with the matchups and intercomparison analyses. It is also anticipated that Landsat-5 products will be less susceptible to uncertainties in turbid waters with Rrs(660) > 0.004 [1/sr], which is equivalent of ~1.2% reflectance. Overall, end-users may utilize heritage Rrs products with "fitness-for-purpose" concept in mind, i.e., products could be valuable for one application but may not be viable for another. Further research should be dedicated to enhancing atmospheric correction to account for non-negligible near-infrared reflectance in CDOM-rich and extremely turbid waters.

Pahlevan, Nima↗
NASA NTRS1981

Compositional inhomogeneities in a single Icelandic tholeiite flow

New trace element analyses of 25 basalt samples from a vertical traverse in an 11 m thick flow of Icelandic tholeiite show compositional differences which exceed analytical uncertainties and are random with respect to height. These variations suggest a short-range segregation model in which the amounts of phenocrysts, groundmass materials, and residual liquid vary randomly in different samples of the flow; a least-squares method is applied to determine if these variations reflect different proportions of crystallizing phases and residual liquid. Monte Carlo computations indicate that short-range segregation results in inhomogeneity of a magnitude of interflow compositional differences; this causes incoherence in elements with different geochemical behaviors while preserving coherence in elements of similar behavior.

Lindstrom, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

State-space self-tuner for on-line adaptive control

Dynamic systems, such as flight vehicles, satellites and space stations, operating in real environments, constantly face parameter and/or structural variations owing to nonlinear behavior of actuators, failure of sensors, changes in operating conditions, disturbances acting on the system, etc. In the past three decades, adaptive control has been shown to be effective in dealing with dynamic systems in the presence of parameter uncertainties, structural perturbations, random disturbances and environmental variations. Among the existing adaptive control methodologies, the state-space self-tuning control methods, initially proposed by us, are shown to be effective in designing advanced adaptive controllers for multivariable systems. In our approaches, we have embedded the standard Kalman state-estimation algorithm into an online parameter estimation algorithm. Thus, the advanced state-feedback controllers can be easily established for digital adaptive control of continuous-time stochastic multivariable systems. A state-space self-tuner for a general multivariable stochastic system has been developed and successfully applied to the space station for on-line adaptive control. Also, a technique for multistage design of an optimal momentum management controller for the space station has been developed and reported in. Moreover, we have successfully developed various digital redesign techniques which can convert a continuous-time controller to an equivalent digital controller. As a result, the expensive and unreliable continuous-time controller can be implemented using low-cost and high performance microprocessors. Recently, we have developed a new hybrid state-space self tuner using a new dual-rate sampling scheme for on-line adaptive control of continuous-time uncertain systems.

Shieh, L. S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Expansion of direction space around the cardinal axes revealed by smooth pursuit eye movements

It is well established that perceptual direction discrimination shows an oblique effect; thresholds are higher for motion along diagonal directions than for motion along cardinal directions. Here, we compare simultaneous direction judgments and pursuit responses for the same motion stimuli and find that both pursuit and perceptual thresholds show similar anisotropies. The pursuit oblique effect is robust under a wide range of experimental manipulations, being largely resistant to changes in trajectory (radial versus tangential motion), speed (10 versus 25 deg/s), directional uncertainty (blocked versus randomly interleaved), and cognitive state (tracking alone versus concurrent tracking and perceptual tasks). Our data show that the pursuit oblique effect is caused by an effective expansion of direction space surrounding the cardinal directions and the requisite compression of space for other directions. This expansion suggests that the directions around the cardinal directions are in some way overrepresented in the visual cortical pathways that drive both smooth pursuit and perception.

Visual Pathways/physiology↗
NASA NTRS2008

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder HCl Measurements

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite has provided daily global HCl profiles since August 2004. We provide a characterization of the resolution, random and systematic uncertainties, and known issues for the version 2.2 MLS HCl data. The MLS sampling allows for comparisons with many (~1500 to more than 3000) closely matched profiles from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS). These data sets provide HCl latitudinal distributions that are, overall, very similar to those from (coincident) MLS profiles, although there are some discrepancies in the upper stratosphere between the MLS and HALOE gradients. As found in previous work, MLS and ACE HCl profiles agree very well (within approximately 5%, on average), but the MLS HCl abundances are generally larger (by 10-20%) than HALOE HCl. The bias versus HALOE is unlikely to arise mostly from MLS, as a similar systematic bias (of order 15%) is not observed between average MLS and balloon-borne measurements of HCl, obtained over Fort Sumner, New Mexico, in 2004 and 2005. At the largest pressure (147 hPa) for MLS HCl, a high bias (approximately 0.2 ppbv) is apparent in analyses of low to midlatitude data versus in situ aircraft chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) HCl measurements from the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE) campaigns in 2004, 2005, and 2006; this bias is also observed in comparisons of MLS and aircraftHCl/O3 correlations. Good agreement between MLS and CIMS HCl is obtained at 100 to 68 hPa. The recommended pressure range for MLS HCl is from 100 to 0.15 hPa.

Earth Observing System (EOS)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Random Variables with Moment-Matching Staircase Density Functions

This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight.

Luis G. Crespo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Science Performance Comparison Between a Spaceborne HSRL and CALIOP

NASA operates airborne and spaceborne lidar systems to answer aerosol and cloud related science questions. NASA Langley Research Center has extensive experience operating lidar systems in both regimes. These include High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) systems, which have been operating on airborne systems,and CALIOP, the spaceborne elastic backscatter lidar system on board CALIPSO. In support of NASA’s ACCP Study Plan to address the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Designated Observables called out in the 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey, LaRC is using lidar simulation tools to evaluate the performance of spaceborne systems using both the HSRL and elastic backscatter techniques. The LaRC high-fidelity simulator tool models both HSRL and elastic backscatter lidar systems by modeling the effects of the instrument specifications and producing backscatter signals generated from molecules, aerosols, clouds, ocean surface, and ocean subsurface. It derives the solar background signals from the scene specific aerosol and cloud characteristics, surface type, and sun elevation. The tool models both random and systematic uncertainties in the retrieved geophysical parameters. In this study, we will present simulated results that compare and contrast the performance of spaceborne HSRL systems to the performance of CALIOP. As recommended by the Decadal Study, ACCP is seeking advances over performance that has been achieved by A-Train. This study will provide a description of the HSRL and elastic backscatter techniques and demonstrate how and why the performance of these HSRL systems exceeds the performance of CALIOP.

Kathleen A Powell↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Whiteman, David N.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗