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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Maximum Temperatures of a Li-ion Battery on a Simulated Flight Profile using a Model-based Prognostics

One of the challenges in using Li-ion packs in aeronautics is their safety, and thermal runaway (TR) is a major concern. The current engineering solutions to prevent a Li-ion pack from a catastrophic TR require additional mass and volume to isolate cells. The excess mass could be reduced by improving detection and, thus, preventing a TR event. One of the possible early warning indicators of a TR is crossing a threshold temperature. We have developed an approach, based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to predict the likelihood of reaching the threshold temperature for simulated flight profiles. The current battery prognostics algorithms for aerospace predict state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) [1]. We extended this two-level algorithm to predict the maximum temperature during discharge. The amount of heat generated in a cell depends on factors such as cell chemistry, cell packaging, total cycles, operating temperature, and abuse history [2]. Our semi-empirical thermal model depends on three phenomenological parameters which account for those factors. In addition, a two-parameter reduced-order model is developed to predict the temperature rise for short bursts of “random-walk” (RW) discharge current sequence, which simulates a flight's current-loading profile. The performance of these models on different datasets and types of current loading will be presented. To predict the maximal temperatures for future cycles we must estimate the evolution of thermal parameters as the batteries age. It is found that the parameters of the 3-parametric thermal model cannot be estimated only from the RW data. To address the issue, we will present two alternative approaches: i) expanding the datasets to include discharge profiles beyond RWs; ii) model reduction to a two-parametric model. The two approaches will be illustrated by an application to the cycling data from a commercial LG 18650 cell. References: 1. M. Daigle, C.S. Kulkarni, End-of-discharge and End-of-life Prediction in Lithium-ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-based Aging Models, in: AIAA Infotech @ Aerospace, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, California, USA, 2016. 2. M. Börner, et. al, Correlation of aging and thermal stability of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries, Journal of Power Sources. 342 (2017) 382–392.

Thermal runaway↗

NASA NTRS1984

Structure of particle-laden jets - Measurements and predictions

Measurements of mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases as well as particle mass fluxes were completed in turbulent, particle-laden jets containing monodisperse particles with well-defined initial and boundary conditions. The new measurements were used to evaluate a stochastic separated flow model of the process which treated effects of interphase slip and turbulent dispersion using random-walk computations for particle motion. The continuous phase was treated using a modified k-epsilon model allowing for direct contributions of interphase transport to both mean and turbulence properties. The model performed reasonably well over the new data base, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work. In contrast, simplified models ignoring either interphase slip or turbulent dispersion yielded poor agreement with the measurements.

Shuen, J.-S.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deï¬‚ection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A diffusion-limited aggregation model for the evolution of drainage networks

We propose a modified diffusion-limited aggregation (DLA) model for the evolution of fluvial drainage networks. Random walkers are introduced randomly on a grid, and each two-dimensional random walk proceeds until the walker finds a drainage network on which to accrete. This model for headward growth of drainage networks generates drainage patterns remarkably similar to actual drainages. The model also predicts statistical features which agree with actual networks, including the frequency-order (bifurcation) ratio (R(sub b) = 3.98) and the stream length-order (R(sub r) = 2.09). Using the definition of network fractal dimension D = log R(sub b)/log R(sub r), we find that our DLA model gives D = 1.87, near the observed range of D approximately equal to 1.80 - 1.85.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Component-Level Model of Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B)

Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is being employed in numerous peer-to-peer initiatives attempting to expand the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS) or enable mixed operations of manned and unmanned vehicles. Safety assessments of these initiatives rely, in part, on modeling the accuracy of ADS-B in reporting the position and direction of an ownship and surrounding traffic. Frequently, these initiatives utilize a position uncertainty model that applies a reported ADS-B estimation position uncertainty (EPU) value to a Rayleigh distribution and uses a Gauss-Markov random walk to add error to the ADS-B output of a vehicle. This model of ADS-B state error is easy to implement and apply to numerous problems. However, it has a couple of draw-backs. First, the ADS-B state errors are equally probable in all directions. This is a good assumption in situations where aircraft maneuvering is not constrained. However, in situations where the aircraft maneuvering is constrained such as landing, the error distribution is likely to exhibit directionality and the non-directional model may skew results especially when assessing very low probabilities (e.g., 10(exp -9)) of catastrophic encounters. Second, the model does not account for processing latency in the receiving aircraft. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) recently examined the feasibility of decreasing the spacing of aircraft on parallel approaches to runways separated by as little as 700 feet. For Monte-Carlo analysis using a high-fidelity simulation of a large transport, LaRC started with a Gauss-Markov model of ADS-B error but then developed a component level model of ADS-B error to increase the fidelity of results.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

The fundamental structure function of oscillator noise models

Continuous-time models of oscillator phase noise x(t) usually have stationary nth differences, for some n. The covariance structure of such a model can be characterized in the time domain by the structure function: D sub n (t;gamma sub 1, gamma sub 2) = E delta (n) sub gamma sub 1 x(s+t) delta(n) sub gamma sub 2 x (s). Although formulas for the special case D sub 2 (0;gamma,gamma) (the Allan variance times 2 gamma(2)) exist for power-law spectral models, certain estimation problems require a more complete knowledge of (0). Exhibited is a much simpler function of one time variable, D(t), from which (0) can easily be obtained from the spectral density by uncomplicated integrations. Believing that D(t) is the simplest function of time that holds the same information as (0), D(t) is called the fundamental structure function. D(t) is computed for several power-law spectral models. Two examples are D(t) = K/t/(3) for random walk FM, D(t) = Kt(2) 1n/t/ for flicker FM. Then, to demonstrate its use, a BASIC program is given that computes means and variances of two Allan variance estimators, one of which incorporates a method of frequency drift estimation and removal.

Greenhall, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Extrapolation of the dna fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation to predict effects at low doses

The patterns of DSBs induced in the genome are different for sparsely and densely ionizing radiations: In the former case, the patterns are well described by a random-breakage model; in the latter, a more sophisticated tool is needed. We used a Monte Carlo algorithm with a random-walk geometry of chromatin, and a track structure defined by the radial distribution of energy deposition from an incident ion, to fit the PFGE data for fragment-size distribution after high-dose irradiation. These fits determined the unknown parameters of the model, enabling the extrapolation of data for high-dose irradiation to the low doses that are relevant for NASA space radiation research. The randomly-located-clusters formalism was used to speed the simulations. It was shown that only one adjustable parameter, Q, the track efficiency parameter, was necessary to predict DNA fragment sizes for wide ranges of doses. This parameter was determined for a variety of radiations and LETs and was used to predict the DSB patterns at the HPRT locus of the human X chromosome after low-dose irradiation. It was found that high-LET radiation would be more likely than low-LET radiation to induce additional DSBs within the HPRT gene if this gene already contained one DSB.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS1985

Prediction of the structure of fuel sprays in gas turbine combustors

The structure of fuel sprays in a combustion chamber is theoretically investigated using computer models of current interest. Three representative spray models are considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, which assumes infinitely fast interphase transport rates; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, which considers finite rates of interphase transport but ignores effects of droplet/turbulence interactions; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, which considers droplet/turbulence interactions using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for droplet motion and transport. Two flow conditions are studied to investigate the influence of swirl on droplet life histories and the effects of droplet/turbulence interactions on flow properties. Comparison of computed results with the experimental data show that general features of the flow structure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy using the two separated flow models. In contrast, the LHF model overpredicts the rate of development of the flow. While the SSF model provides better agreement with measurements than the DSF model, definitive evaluation of the significance of droplet/turbulence interaction is not achieved due to uncertainties in the spray initial conditions.

Shuen, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Prediction of the structure of fuel sprays in gas turbine combustors

Shuen, J.-S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Cluster-cluster correlations and constraints on the correlation hierarchy

The hypothesis that galaxies cluster around clusters at least as strongly as they cluster around galaxies imposes constraints on the hierarchy of correlation amplitudes in hierachical clustering models. The distributions which saturate these constraints are the Rayleigh-Levy random walk fractals proposed by Mandelbrot; for these fractal distributions cluster-cluster correlations are all identically equal to galaxy-galaxy correlations. If correlation amplitudes exceed the constraints, as is observed, then cluster-cluster correlations must exceed galaxy-galaxy correlations, as is observed.

Hamilton, A. J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The structure of helical interplanetary magnetic fields

The interplanetary magnetic field is known to be highly helical. Although the detailed spatial structure of the fields has yet to be elucidated, the helicity spectrum has been conjectured to result from a random walk in the direction of a constant magnitude magnetic field vector. A model using three-dimensional fluctuations with variations in B is demonstrated giving a good fit to the helicity spectrum as well as to other properties of the interplanetary magnetic field.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix Orbit Determination Example

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. First, consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. Then it follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix of the estimate will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully include all of the errors in the state estimate. The empirical error covariance matrix is determined from a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm. It is a formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix obtained through use of the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than the usual total weighted residual form. Based on its formulation, this matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty and whether the source is anticipated or not. It is expected that the empirical error covariance matrix will give a better, statistical representation of the state error in poorly modeled systems or when sensor performance is suspect. In its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch estimation algorithms. In the current problem being studied a truth model making use of gravity with spherical, J2 and J4 terms plus a standard exponential type atmosphere with simple diurnal and random walk components is used. The ability of the empirical state error covariance matrix to account for errors is investigated under four scenarios during orbit estimation. These scenarios are: exact modeling under known measurement errors, exact modeling under corrupted measurement errors, inexact modeling under known measurement errors, and inexact modeling under corrupted measurement errors. For this problem a simple analog of a distributed space surveillance network is used. The sensors in this network make only range measurements and with simple normally distributed measurement errors. The sensors are assumed to have full horizon to horizon viewing at any azimuth. For definiteness, an orbit at the approximate altitude and inclination of the International Space Station is used for the study. The comparison analyses of the data involve only total vectors. No investigation of specific orbital elements is undertaken. The total vector analyses will look at the chisquare values of the error in the difference between the estimated state and the true modeled state using both the empirical and theoretical error covariance matrices for each of scenario.

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Derivation of the Long-Term Degradation of a Pulsed Atomic Frequency Standard from a Control-Loop Model

The phase of a frequency standard that uses periodic interrogation and control of a local oscillator (LO) is degraded by a long-term random-walk component induced by downconversion of LO noise into the loop passband. The Dick formula for the noise level of this degradation is derived from an explicit solution of an LO control-loop model.

Dick formula local oscillator frequency phase freq↗

NASA NTRS1976

Information about accretion flows from X-ray timing of pulsating sources

The response was studied of a rotating neutron star to fluctuating torques and it was found that the observed variations in the pulsation periods of the compact X-ray sources Cen X-3 and Her X-1 could be caused by short time scale fluctuations in the accretion torques acting on the neutron stars. The sizes and rates of the required fluctuations are consistent with current accretion models. Such fluctuations can cause period variations either (a) directly, by causing a random walk of the star's angular velocity or (b) indirectly, by exciting a long-period mode of the neutron star, such as the Tkachenko mode of the rotating neutron superfluid. Phenomena in compact X-ray sources and cataclysmic variables which may be caused by fluctuating mass flow rates are also discussed.

Lamb, F. K.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Model for radon diffusion through the lunar regolith.

Description of a model for radon diffusion through the lunar regolith in which the atom migrates by random walk. The regolith is represented by a system of randomly oriented baffles in which the mean distance which the atom travels between two collisions takes on the role of a mean free path. The effective mean time between two collisions depends on two entities: the actual mean time-of-flight and the mean sticking time on grain surfaces for one collision. The latter depends strongly on the temperature and the heat of adsorption of radon on regolith materials. Both the mean free path as well as the heat of adsorption are either poorly known or unknown for the lunar regolith; hence these quantities are treated as free parameters. Because of the greatly different mean lifetimes against radioactive decay of Rn219, Rn220, and Rn222, the regolith acts as a powerful 'filter' for these species. Rn222 escape is significant (32%) even for a mean free path of 1 micron, a heat of adsorption of 7.0 kcal/mole and a regolith depth of 4 m. Calculations of radon escape from a 4 m thick regolith, using mean free paths of 1, 10, and 80 microns and heats of adsorption of 4.0, 5.2, and 7.0 kcal/mole show that the Rn222/Rn220 escape ratio can be as small as 7.7 and as large as, or larger than 47. The small value of 7.7 is of particular interest, because it is nearly equal to the escape ratio inferred by Turkevich et al. (1970) from their Surveyor 5 results.

Friesen, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Evaluation of parameters for particles acceleration by the zero-point field of quantum electrodynamics

That particles may be accelerated by vacuum effects in quantum field theory has been repeatedly proposed in the last few years. A natural upshot of this is a mechanism for cosmic rays (CR) primaries acceleration. A mechanism for acceleration by the zero-point field (ZPE) when the ZPE is taken in a realistic sense (in opposition to a virtual field) was considered. Originally the idea was developed within a semiclassical context. The classical Einstein-Hopf model (EHM) was used to show that free isolated electromagnrtically interacting particles performed a random walk in phase space and more importantly in momentum space when submitted to the perennial action of the so called classical electromagnrtic ZPE.

Rueda, A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

A Derivation of the Dick Effect from Control-Loop Models for Periodically Interrogated Passive Frequency Standards

The phase of a frequency standard that uses periodic interrogation and control of a local oscillator (LO) is degraded by a long-term random-walk component induced by downconversion of LO noise into the loop passband. The Dick formula for the noise level of this degradation can be derived from explicit solotions of two LO control-loop models. A summary of the derivations is given here.

Dick Effect Dick Formula local oscillator noise fr↗

NASA NTRS1984

Tortuosity of lightning return stroke channels

Data obtained from photographs of lightning are presented on the tortuosity of return stroke channels. The data were obtained by making piecewise linear fits to the channels, and recording the cartesian coordinates of the ends of each linear segment. The mean change between ends of the segments was nearly zero in the horizontal direction and was about eight meters in the vertical direction. Histograms of these changes are presented. These data were used to create model lightning channels and to predict the electric fields radiated during return strokes. This was done using a computer generated random walk in which linear segments were placed end-to-end to form a piecewise linear representation of the channel. The computer selected random numbers for the ends of the segments assuming a normal distribution with the measured statistics. Once the channels were simulated, the electric fields radiated during a return stroke were predicted using a transmission line model on each segment. It was found that realistic channels are obtained with this procedure, but only if the model includes two scales of tortuosity: fine scale irregularities corresponding to the local channel tortuosity which are superimposed on large scale horizontal drifts. The two scales of tortuosity are also necessary to obtain agreement between the electric fields computed mathematically from the simulated channels and the electric fields radiated from real return strokes. Without large scale drifts, the computed electric fields do not have the undulations characteristics of the data.

Levine, D. M.↗