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Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

The MSP 2001 Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA)

The Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) will evaluate the Martian environment for soil and dust-related hazards to human exploration as part of the Mars Surveyor Program 2001 Lander. Sponsored by the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) enterprise, MECA's goal is to evaluate potential geochemical and environmental hazards that may confront future Martian explorers, and to guide HEDS scientists in the development of high fidelity Mars soil simulants. The integrated MECA payload contains a wet-chemistry laboratory, a microscopy station, an electrometer to characterize the electrostatics of the soil and its environment, and arrays of material patches to study the abrasive and adhesive properties of soil grains. The instrument will acquire soil samples with a robotic arm equipped with a camera. MECA will examine surface and subsurface soil and dust in order to characterize particle size, shape, hardness, and also physical characteristics that may provide clues to mineralogy. MECA will characterize soil/water mixtures with respect to pH, redox potential, total dissolved ions, and trace toxins. MECA will determine the nature of electrostatic charging associated with excavation of soil, and the influence of ionizing radiation on material properties. It will also observe natural dust accumulation on engineering materials. To accomplish these objectives, MECA is allocated a mass of 10 kg within an enclosure of 35 x 25 x 15 cm. The Wet Chemistry Laboratory (WCL) consists of four identical cells that will accept samples from surface and subsurface regions accessible to the Lander's robotic arm, mix them with water, and perform extensive analysis of the solution. Ion-selective electrodes and related sensors will evaluate total dissolved solids, redox potential, pH, and the concentration of many soluble ions and gases in wet Martian soil. These electrodes can detect potentially dangerous heavy-metal ions, emitted pathogenic gases, and the soil's corrosive potential. Experiments will include cyclic voltammetry and anodic stripping voltammetry. Complementary to the Viking experiments, the chemical laboratory will characterize the water-soil solution rather than emitted gases. Nonetheless, through analysis of dissolved gases it will be able to replicate many of the Viking observations related to oxidants. MECA's microscopy station combines optical and atomic-force microscopy (AFM) in an actively focused, controlled illumination environment to image particles from millimeters to nanometers in size. Careful selection of substrates allows controlled experiments in adhesion, abrasion, hardness, aggregation, magnetic and other properties. Special tools allow primitive manipulation (brushing and scraping) of samples. Soil particle properties including size, shape, color, hardness, adhesive potential (electrostatic and magnetic), will be determined using an array of sample receptacles and collection substrates. The simple, rugged atomic-force microscope will image in the submicron size range and has the capability of performing a particle-by-particle analysis of the dust and soil. On Earth, the earliest forms of life are preserved as microfossils. The atomic-force microscope will have the required resolution to image down to the scale of terrestrial microfossils and beyond. Mounted on the end of the robot arm, MECA's electrometer actually consists of four types of sensors: an electric field meter, several triboelectricity monitors, an ion gauge, and a thermometer. Tempered only by ultraviolet-light-induced ions and a low-voltage breakdown threshold, the dry, cold, dusty martian environment presents an imposing electrostatic hazard to both robots and humans. The field meter will measure the ambient field on nearby objects while the triboelectric sensors, using identical circuitry, will measure the charge accumulated on test substances as they are dragged through the soil by the arm. The ion chamber, open to the environment, will sense both charged dust and free ions in the air. Over and above the potential threat to electronics, the electrostatic environment holds one of the keys to transport of dust and, consequently, Martian meteorology. Viewed with the robot arm camera, the abrasion and adhesion plates are strategically placed to allow direct observation of the interaction between materials and soils on a macroscopic scale. Materials of graded hardness are placed directly under the robot arm scoop to sense wear and soil hardness. A second array, placed on the lander deck, is deployed after the dust plume of landing has settled. It can be manipulated in a primitive fashion by the arm, first having dirt deposited on it from the scoop and subsequently shaken clean. A third array will passively collect dust from the atmosphere. In addition to objectives related to human exploration, the MECA data set will be rich in information relevant to basic geology, paleoclimate, and exobiology issues. To understand both contemporaneous and ancient processes on Mars, the mineralogy, petrology, and reactivity of Martian surface materials should be constrained. The MECA experiment will shed light on these quantities through its combination of chemistry and microscopy. MECA will be capable of measuring the composition of ancient surface water environments, observing microscopic evidence of geological (and biological?) processes, inferring soil and dust transport, comminution and weathering mechanisms, and characterizing soil horizons that might be encountered during excavation.

Hecht, M. H.↗