Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reference Model 2”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Mesoscale crystal plasticity modeling of nanoscale Al–Al 2 Cu eutectic alloy

Nanolaminated composites composed of alternate metal and intermetallic or ceramic lamellae exhibit high strength, high strain hardening rate and measurable plasticity at ambient and elevated temperatures. Due to the difference in plastic deformation capability between the two phases, structural instability occurs in hard lamellae associated with buckling when a compression strain is applied parallel to the lamellae. Taking nanoscale Al–Al 2 Cu eutectic alloy as a model system, we develop a mesoscale crystal plasticity (CP) model based on the confined layer slip (CLS) mechanism (referred to as CLS-CP) to understand the buckling behavior of the nanolaminates. In the CLS-CP model, buckling in Al 2 Cu lamellae is constrained by the elastic-plastic deformation of Al lamellae. The critical resolved shear stress for dislocation slip in Al lamellae varies with layer thickness, estimated by the CLS mechanism. To capture the essential features of confined layer slip mechanism that dislocations propagate within the layer and are deposited at the interfaces, plastic deformation in each lamella is the same through the layer thickness. The variation of elastic deformation through the layer thickness is captured through dividing each Al lamella into three or more elements that have the same plastic deformation through the thickness. In comparison, we also conduct standard crystal plasticity modeling in which plastic deformation in the three elements through the layer thickness is calculated individually according to phenomenological power law. In these simulations, plasticity in Al 2 Cu lamellae is modeled with slips on {121} planes due to the slip continuity across the interface, which have been observed in our recent experiments. The CLS-CP model is able to predict mechanical properties of nano-scale lamellar materials. In contrast, the standard CP model is more suitable to study deformation behavior of sub-micro scale lamellar materials. In conclusion, the CLS-CP model calculations reveal that critical compression strain corresponding to buckling increases as layer thickness decreases, which agree with micro-pillar compression tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Beyond Widgets: Validated Systems Energy Savings and Utility Custom Incentive Program Systems Trends

Energy efficiency upgrades to buildings to date through avenues such as utility incentive programs have been largely limited to component-based products (e.g., lamps, RTUs). While some utilities do provide ‘custom’ incentive programs with whole building and system level technical assistance, these programs require deeper levels of analysis, resulting in higher program costs. This results in custom programs being restricted to utilities with greater resources, and are typically applied mainly to large or energy-intensive facilities, leaving much of the market without cost effective access and incentives for these solutions. In addition, with increasingly stringent energy codes, cost effective component-based solutions that achieve significant savings are dwindling. Integrated building systems (e.g., integrated façade, HVAC and/or lighting solutions) can deliver higher savings (Regnier et al. 2017) that translate into large sector-wide savings if deployed at the scale of these programs. However, systems application poses a number of challenges – energy savings assessments are inherently more complex and are not easily suited to the deemed measure model, and implementation of systems can be more disruptive. This paper presents the outcomes of a project to develop validated utility incentive program packages for three specific integrated building systems, in collaboration with ComEd, a consortium of California Public Owned Utilities (CA POUs) (Northern California Power Agency(NCPA) and the Southern California Public Power Authority(SCPPA)), and Xcel Energy (CO, MN). Previous work described the potential for energy savings of these systems at the individual and market level, early test findings for the task-ambient lighting system, and described the work products to develop utility incentive programs (Regnier et al. 2016). This paper presents validated end use energy savings of all three systems showing energy savings of ~20% for automated shading combined with daylight dimming (does not include light fixture retrofit savings); 30-46% for task-ambient lighting systems combined with plug load occupancy controls, depending on technology package and office building size (no daylight dimming impacts); and ~94% in the south-façade daylit zone for workstation specific lighting systems with daylight dimming (including lighting retrofit and task tuning). Using a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reference building model (DOE 2018), this translates to whole building savings of 2-5% (large-medium commercial), 12-23% (large-small commercial), and 13-15% (medium-large commercial) for these systems respectively. Early findings from the utilities in deploying these systems through their incentive programs indicate that deployment methods such as direct install programs might be best suited for these integrated systems. Further, early findings from a scoping study across custom utility programs and federal retrofit programs indicate that component level retrofits are still prevalent even in these programs, pointing towards an opportunity for deeper energy savings deployment. High performance retrofit case studies demonstrate that deeper energy savings is possible through integrated approaches. Market stakeholder interviews indicate however that there is generally a low level of awareness of the potential for energy savings of these three integrated systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility

This report is part of a series describing different ResStock measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. This documentation covers the "Efficient Electric Vehicle Adoption With Level 2 Charging and Demand Flexibility" measure upgrade methodology and briefly discusses key results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Microstructure Investigations of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} Irradiated by Heavy Ions at LWR Temperatures

Searching for a nuclear fuel material with enhanced accident tolerance compared to the conventional UO{sub 2} fuel is one of the key objectives of the accident tolerant fuel (ATF) campaign. Having both high thermal conductivity and high uranium load, U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} is expected to provide lower operating temperature/stored energy and advantageous neutron economy as a light water reactor (LWR) fuel material. Therefore, U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} has been regarded as a promising candidate fuel material by the ATF community. To evaluate the qualification of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} as an ATF fuel in LWRs, its fuel performance during both steady-state operation and power transients must be well understood. As a typical nuclear fuel material applied in research reactors, the fuel performance of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} at low temperatures (<300 deg. C) has been extensively studied through both experimental and computational approaches. However, under LWR conditions, the temperature of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} can go beyond 600 deg. C. In that case, the references collected in U{sub 3}Si{sub 2}'s applications in research reactors are inadequate for the validation of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} as an LWR ATF. Experimental efforts that are dedicated to the LWR conditions must be made to help examine U{sub 3}Si{sub 2}'s qualifications as well as provide valuable references for the development related models in advanced fuel performance code. Gaseous fission products accumulate in nuclear fuel during operation and form fission gas bubbles. The evolution of those fission gas bubbles results in increase of volume (swelling), degradation of thermal conductivity, and eventually fission gas release, compromising the integrity and performance of fuel elements in multiple aspects. Hence, fission gas behavior is one of the most important components of fuel performance. In-pile irradiation and corresponding post-irradiation examinations (PIEs) undoubtedly provide most reliable information on the actual performance of a nuclear fuel. However, the high cost and long lead time involved in in-pile irradiation limit its wide applications. On the other hand, heavy ion irradiation is capable of simulating the neutron effects on materials, especially the behavior of energetic fission fragments in nuclear fuel materials, to a considerable extent. Therefore, heavy ion irradiation was used in this study to investigate the microstructural evolution of U{sub 3}Si{sub 2} under LWR-temperature irradiation, focusing on the difference from low temperature irradiation and fission gas behavior.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Discovery of black dye crystal structure polymorphs: Implications for dye conformational variation in dye-sensitized solar cells

Here, we present the discovery of a new crystal structure polymorph (1) and pseudopolymorph (2) of the Black Dye, one of the world’s leading dyes for dye-sensitized solar cells, DSSCs (10.4% device performance efficiency). This reveals that Black Dye molecules can adopt multiple low-energy conformers. This is significant since it challenges existing models of the Black Dye···TiO 2 adsorption process that renders a DSSC working electrode; these have assumed a single molecular conformation that refers to the previously reported Black Dye crystal structure (3). The marked structural differences observed between 1, 2, and 3 make the need for modeling multiple conformations more acute. Additionally, the ordered form of the Black Dye (1) provides a more appropriate depiction of its anionic structure, especially regarding its anchoring group and NCS bonding descriptions. The tendency toward NCS ligand isomerism, evidenced via the disordered form 2, has consequences for electron injection and electron recombination in Black Dye embedded DSSC devices. Dyes 2 and 3 differ primarily by the absence or presence of a solvent of crystallization, respectively; solvent environment effects on the dye are thereby elucidated. This discovery of multiple Black Dye conformers from diffraction, with atomic-level definition, complements recently reported nanoscopic evidence for multiple dye conformations existing at a dye···TiO 2 interface, for a chemically similar DSSC dye; those results emanated from imaging and spectroscopy, but were unresolved at the submolecular level. Taken together, these findings lead to the general notion that multiple dye conformations should be explicitly considered when modeling dye···TiO 2 interfaces in DSSCs, at least for ruthenium-based dye complexes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-Open-IAM Analytical Reservoir Model: Development and Testing

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) is a key technology for reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Over the last decade, the U.S. Department of Energy has invested in understanding the science base, developing practical implementation methods, and demonstrating secure GCS technologies to mitigate the environmental impacts associated with the atmospheric release of CO 2 . As part of the National Risk Assessment Partnership, a systems-level risk assessment tool, called the NRAP-Open-IAM, has been developed to conduct risk assessment and enable safe operations at a GCS site. The current NRAP-Open-IAM contains a simple reservoir model component that calculates the evolution of CO 2 saturation and fluid pressure in a storage reservoir during CO 2 injection operations. This report presents the development and testing of a new analytical reservoir reduced-order model (ROM), which is extended from an existing semi-analytical model for estimation of CO 2 and brine leakage along legacy wells, and enhances the capability of the NRAP-Open-IAM to simulate more types of reservoir conditions. The developed model is validated against three reference studies, and the results indicate that the new ROM predicts the behavior of the two-phase fluids (brine and injected CO 2 ) well and is applicable to different reservoir simulation boundary conditions (i.e., constant pressure boundary and infinite-acting boundary) without a priori user specification of the boundary type. Sensitivity analysis for a set of model parameters is performed using 4,000 synthetic cases prepared via a fully automated process and using machine-learning-based feature selection. The stochastic analysis identifies gravitational number (i.e., ratio of gravitational forces to viscous force) and distance between the injection well and observation location as the most impactful parameters for matching the pressure and CO 2 saturation, respectively, between the numerical simulations and the ROM. This report details the possible ROM uncertainties and serves as a guide for users to understand the use and limitations of this ROM. The code implementation of the model will be released as a module within the NRAP-Open-IAM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Universal correlation between CP phase $\delta$ and the non-unitarity $\alpha$ parameter phases

The non-unitarity of the neutrino mixing matrix is a problem related with a more fundamental question about the origin of the neutrino mass. After a brief discussion on the questions ``why do we need model-independent framework for unitarity test?'', we show interesting properties present in the oscillation probabilities of neutrinos propagating in matter with non-unitarity. That is, (1) partial unitarity and (2) universal phase correlation. %To illuminate these points, we formulate a perturbative framework with the two expansion parameters $\epsilon \equiv \Delta m^2_{21} / \Delta m^2_{31}$ and $\alpha$ matrix elements. The complex triangular $\alpha$ matrix is introduced through the definition of $3 \times 3$ non-unitary flavor mixing matrix $N$ as %\begin{eqnarray} N &=& \left( \bf{1} - \alpha \right) U = \left\{ \bf{1} - \left[ \begin{array}{ccc}\alpha_{ee} & 0 & 0 \\\alpha_{\mu e} & \alpha_{\mu \mu} & 0 \\\alpha_{\tau e} & \alpha_{\tau \mu} & \alpha_{\tau \tau} \\\end{array}\right] \right\}U \label{alpha-matrix-def}\end{eqnarray}%where $U$ is the unitary MNS mixing matrix, and hence $\alpha$ characterizes the size and the flavor dependence of unitarity violation (UV)\footnote{%%%%%%%%%%%%%Despite that in the physics literature UV usually means ``ultraviolet'', we use UV in this manuscript as an abbreviation for ``unitarity violation'' or ``unitarity violating''.}~~caused by new physics (NP) at low- or high-scales.~~~~The point (1) above essentially means that despite non-unitary mixing, neutrino evolution must be unitary because the three active neutrinos span a complete state space of neutral leptons. The {\em phase correlation} mentioned in the point (2) refers an intriguing property that the complex $\alpha$ parameters and $\nu$Standard Model CP phase $\delta$ always come into the oscillation probabilities in a correlated way, $e^{- i \delta } \alpha_{\mu e}$, $\alpha_{\tau e}$, and $e^{i \delta} \alpha_{\tau \mu}$, universally in all the oscillation channels. The physical meaning of this result is briefly discussed. }

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulation of CO 2 Storage

This report is a compilation of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) accomplishments on CO 2 storage simulation and modeling research, performed for the US-­China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC). Within the CERC project management structure, this work is referred to as Subtask 6.4.a Simulation and Modeling. The task falls under CERC’s Advanced Coal Technology Consortium (ACTC) Research Theme 6—CO 2 Sequestration Capacity and Near-­Term Opportunities. The goals of the task were to develop new CO 2 sequestration simulation approaches and tools, then apply them to CO 2 storage projects in the U.S. and China. Work on this task paused when funding was redirected to CERC’s other efforts. Two sections of this report provide valuable snapshot of LLNL’s progress when funding was curtailed: 1) Section 5.2.2 is a 14-­page presentation written January 8, 2013; and 2) Section 5.1.3 is a progress report from the first quarter of Fiscal year 2013.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status of New Models Hosted on the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) in 2024

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) mission is to support deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test bed. It is in development in collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The mission of the VTB is to accelerate the deployment and licensing of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE NEAMS program. This is accomplished by three primary means: (1) openly hosting simulations that showcase analysis capabilities, (2) continuously testing the models hosted against code updates to avoid deprecation, and (3) filling key M&S gaps that are relevant for the physical NRIC test beds. The VTB repository consists of two sub-entities: 1. A documentation website detailing the models (https://mooseframework.inl.gov/virtual_test_bed). 2. A GitHub repository that hosts the corresponding files (https://github.com/idaholab/virtual_test_bed). Previous documentation on the models hosted in the VTB can be found in [1,2,3,4]. These references also include additional background information on the various NEAMS codes showcased in the VTB (which is omitted here for brevity). This paper primarily provides a status update of the most recent additions to the repository.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Composite Structural Materials for Heliostat Cost Reduction

Structures manufactured from steel comprise up to 40% of a CSP heliostat's cost. Composite structures represent a potential opportunity to reduce this cost. A reference heliostat structural model has been created with a reflector area of 25m 2 . The design, constructed of low-carbon steel, pro-vides baseline deflection and stiffness under a 21 m/s operating wind speeds. Wind loads on the tracker structure are determined for both operating and stow conditions. An established roster of suitable metal alternative materials is considered including: glass, basalt, and carbon reinforced polymer (GFRP, BFRP, and CFRP respectively). Three heliostat components are investigated: the pylon, torque tube, and the purlin-strut assembly. Composite material properties are substituted for those of steel, and the beams are re-sized to match the original steel components' deflection under given wind loads. Weight and cost changes resulting from this resizing are evaluated. It is found that GFRP and BFRP represent a 3X–6X cost premium for the same operating deflection character-istics as steel across all three investigated component classes; with weight reduction only achieved for the purlin-strut assembly. While CFRP components can achieve approximately 25–75% weight savings depending on the application, this comes with a 9X–14X cost increase over the steel base-line for tube-type structures and roughly 5X cost increase when replacing c-channel structures. This work does not rule out the possibility of cost savings when the heliostat design and kinematics to take advantage of composites' specific properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cluster Expansion Analysis of Atomic Order in Li-Ion Battery Cathode Material LiCo y Ni 1-y O 2

A modified cluster-expansion treatment was developed recently to analyze atomic order in LiCo y Ni 1-y O 2 , a model cathode material for Li-ion batteries. In this treatment, referred to as a “spin-atom” cluster expansion, the occupant of a lattice site is identified by its spin state as well as its atomic species. Further, Effective Cluster Interaction (ECI) coefficients are derived from a large training data set (i.e., the set of atomic arrangements for which DFT calculations are performed) which is filtered by an anomaly detection algorithm to eliminate poorly converged DFT calculations. The cluster expansion incorporates Li-Ni (LN) exchange as well as intralayer Co-Ni (CN) exchange. Monte Carlo simulations based on the cluster expansion were applied to the Ni-rich part of the phase diagram. The simulations predict a miscibility gap between y = 0.05 and y = 0.65.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Dynamics of cylindrical converging shock waves interacting with aerodynamic obstacle arrays

Cylindrical converging shock waves interacting with an array of aerodynamic obstacles are investigated numerically for diverse shock strengths and for different obstacle configurations in air in standard conditions. The considered number of obstacles N is 4, 6, 8, 16, and 24. Obstacles are lenticular airfoils with thickness-to-chord ratios t/c of 0.07, 0.14, and 0.21. The distances of the airfoil leading edge from the shock focus point (r{sub LE})/(r{sub LE}{sup ref}) are 1, 2, and 2.5, where r{sub LE}{sup ref}=7 is the dimensionless reference distance from the origin. Considered impinging shock Mach numbers M{sub s} are 2.2, 2.7, and 3.2 at the reference distance from the origin. The reference experimental configuration (N=8,t/c =0.14,r{sub LE}=7,M{sub s}=2.7) was proposed by Kjellander et al. [“Thermal radiation from a converging shock implosion,” Phys. Fluids 22, 046102 (2010)]. Numerical results compare fairly well to available one-dimensional models for shock propagation and to available experimental results in the reference configuration. Local reflection types are in good agreement with the classical criteria for planar shock waves. The main shock reshaping patterns are identified and their dependence on the shock strength and obstacle configuration is exposed. In particular, different shock patterns are observed after the leading edge reflection, which results in polygonal shock wave with N, 2N, 3N, and 4N sides. The largest temperature peak at the origin is obtained for the 8- and the 16-obstacle configurations and for the smallest thickness to length ratio, 0.07, located at distance from the origin of 2r{sub LE}{sup ref}. In terms of compression efficiency at the origin, the 16-obstacle configuration is found to perform slightly better than the reference 8-obstacle configuration—with an efficiency increase of about 2%-3%, which is well within the model accuracy—thus confirming the goodness of the obstacle arrangement proposed by Kjellander and collaborators.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Hadron production cross-sections at relativistic energies with large phase-space coverage - Paper 39

Accurate measurements of soft particle production in hadronic interactions at relativistic energies have long been an experimental challenge, in particular when the measurement is over a large final state phase-space, and when multiple combinations of beam and targets are investigated. Lacking quantitative predictions from the fundamental theory of quantum chromo-dynamics (QCD) in the non-perturbative sector, the study of soft hadronic physics needs to rely on precise, self-consistent, high-statistics data sets with full phase-space coverage and low systematic errors. Phenomenological models of particle production in hadronic collisions need such data to constrain their parameters, and possibly to discriminate among the underlying features of these models. In this article the 'soft' physics refers to production of particles with transverse momenta, pT, below 2 GeV/c, which comprises over 99% of the total production cross-section. It is also known as 'bulk' particle production, or the 'underlying event' in reference to the background of hard processes, particles produced with much larger transverse momentum which are usually described in the framework of perturbative QCD. Improving these models is of interest of the Radiation Protection and Shielding Division (RPSD) community, as well as the availability of accurate data with large phase space coverage. The NA49 collaboration has published new, high precision, and comprehensive sets of inclusive meson and baryon cross sections in p+p and p+C interactions over most of the available phase space with comparisons to past experimental results. The corresponding physics analysis presents a model-independent approach to soft hadronic physics and constitutes a novel approach to exploration of this non-perturbative sector of QCD. The precision study of p+A interactions may allow for differentiation between assumptions underlying different microscopic models of bulk particle production in relativistic hadronic collisions, and thus aid model development. The final data on inclusive particle production including the invariant double differential cross sections, the transversely integrated yields, and the developed interpolations, along with the published papers and other documents relevant to this work are conveniently available. (author)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward more accurate adiabatic connection approach for multireference wavefunctions

A multiconfigurational adiabatic connection (AC) formalism is an attractive approach to compute the dynamic correlation within the complete active space self-consistent field and density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) models. Practical realizations of AC have been based on two approximations: (i) fixing one- and two-electron reduced density matrices (1- and 2-RDMs) at the zero-coupling constant limit and (ii) extended random phase approximation (ERPA). This work investigates the effect of removing the “fixed-RDM” approximation in AC. The analysis is carried out for two electronic Hamiltonian partitionings: the group product function- and the Dyall Hamiltonians. Exact reference AC integrands are generated from the DMRG full configuration interaction solver. Two AC models are investigated, employing either exact 1- and 2-RDMs or their second-order expansions in the coupling constant in the ERPA equations. Calculations for model molecules indicate that lifting the fixed-RDM approximation is a viable way toward improving the accuracy of existing AC approximations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Coupled optical/thermal/fluid analysis and design requirements for operation and testing of a supercritical CO 2 solar receiver.

Recent studies have evaluated closed-loop supercritical carbon dioxide (s-CO 2 ) Brayton cycles to be a higher energy-density system in comparison to conventional superheated steam Rankine systems. At turbine inlet conditions of 923K and 25 MPa, high thermal efficiency (~50%) can be achieved. Achieving these high efficiencies will make concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies a competitive alternative to current power generation methods. To incorporate a s-CO 2 Brayton power cycle in a solar power tower system, the development of a solar receiver capable of providing an outlet temperature of 923 K (at 25 MPa) is necessary. To satisfy the temperature requirements of a s-CO 2 Brayton cycle with recuperation and recompression, it is required to heat s-CO 2 by a temperature of ~200 K as it passes through the solar receiver. Our objective was to develop an optical-thermal-fluid model to design and evaluate a tubular receiver that will receive a heat input ~1 MWth from a heliostat field. We also undertook the documentation of design requirements for the development, testing and safe operation of a direct s-CO 2 solar receiver. The main purpose of this document is to serve as a reference and guideline for design and testing requirements, as well as to address the technical challenges and provide initial parameters for the computational models that will be employed for the development of s-CO 2 receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗