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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-inspired lotus-shaped fins combined with hybrid nanoparticles and metal foam for high-performance latent heat thermal energy storage

Latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems play a critical role in renewable energy integration by providing high energy density and nearly isothermal operation during phase transitions. However, their performance is often limited by slow melting/charging rates, which motivates the search for enhanced heat transfer designs. This study investigates the melting behavior of RT-82 phase change material (PCM) using novel lotus-shaped fins combined with copper metal foam and conductive graphene nanoparticles and carbon nanotubes. A two-dimensional enthalpy-porosity model in ANSYS Fluent was developed to simulate the charging/melting process, capturing non-thermal equilibrium between the foam and PCM/nano-PCM. In this study, effects of fin geometry, nanoparticle concentration, and foam porosity on melting dynamics and cost-performance trade-offs were investigated. Results showed that natural convection accelerated melting by ~12% compared to conduction-only scenarios. Optimized lotus-shaped fins with higher fin density (T3F4 and T3F10) achieved up to 63% faster melting relative to sparse configurations. Graphene nanoparticles improved thermal conductivity, with a 6% volume fraction, by reducing melting time by ~6.9%, while their combination with 75% porosity foam achieved a maximum reduction in the melting time of ~51% compared to pure PCM. Cost-performance analysis identified T3F4 as the most balanced design, offering rapid thermal response without excessive material costs, while moderate-density designs like T3S6 provided economical alternatives with acceptable performance. These results highlight the performance enhancement that can be achieved by integrating bio-inspired fins, nanoparticles, and foams, into compact and efficient LHTES for solar heating, building thermal management, and industrial waste-heat recovery applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of pumped thermal energy storage using particle media integrated with concentrating solar power

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) is an electricity storage system that converts electricity into thermal energy which is stored and later transformed back into electricity. Previous work has illustrated that particles have low capital costs and can be operated over a wide range of temperatures. PTES with particle storage achieves higher round-trip efficiency and specific power output than when molten salt thermal energy storage is used. This article explores hybrid systems that combine PTES with Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). Hybrid systems share the majority of components thereby reducing costs compared to two stand-alone devices. In addition, hybrid systems can provide multiple services (such as renewable power generation and electricity storage services). Using particle thermal storage in these hybrid concepts provides freedom in choosing the design conditions, since a wide range of operating temperatures is allowable, therefore making it possible to identify hybrid system designs that have good performance. In this article, two concepts for hybrid PTES-CSP are introduced. Thermodynamic models are developed and these are used to evaluate the performance of two hybrid systems. These models account for turbomachinery efficiency, and approach temperature and pressure loss in heat exchangers, as well as other sources of inefficiency, such as motor-generator losses, and air fan power. The “Solar Top-Up” Concept uses CSP to increase the temperature delivered by the charging heat pump. The discharging system uses a topping gas cycle and a bottoming steam cycle to fully exploit the available energy. Using solar heat to increase the maximum temperature from 750 K to 1100 K increases the round-trip efficiency from 41 % to 62 % and the specific work output from 88 kJ/kg to 301 kJ/kg. The second concept is a “Dual-Mode” device which provides both electricity storage and solar electricity generation with the same set of components. The PTES-mode and CSP-mode performance are optimized at different design values but careful parameter selection leads to good performance of both modes: one design produces PTES round-trip efficiency > 60 %, CSP heat engine efficiency > 40 %, and specific work outputs > 150 kJ/kg (for both cycles), when the particle receiver temperature is > 1200 K and maximum heat pump temperature is 1100 K.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Systems for Powering Safety Monitoring Systems of Offshore Oil and Gas Operations. OESI 2.0 M-1 T-1-P1.1 – Objective 1 Interim Report: Summary of Offshore Oil and Gas Well Monitoring Systems and Process Power Requirements

This report is part of a comprehensive research initiative aimed at evaluating the technoeconomic feasibility of deploying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions monitoring systems powered by small-scale renewable energy sources on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). The study has three primary objectives: summarizing available GHG monitoring systems for the OCS, modeling a renewable marine energy source (specifically ocean thermal energy conversion, or OTEC), and modeling the collocation of OTEC power sources with offshore oil and gas activities to offset power demand.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance evaluation of a dynamic wall integrated with active insulation and thermal energy storage systems

Thermal energy storage systems in buildings can store cooling/heating energy during non-peak load hours or when renewable energy sources are available for later use when demanded. Using the building envelope as a thermal battery can help to shave the peak load, reduce the burden in electric grids, and enhance the occupant's thermal comfort. Sensible energy storage on wall systems such as thermally activated building systems can provide an active thermal storage strategy. However, most of the stored energy is used through passive means directed by the thermal lag, which can impede the on-demand release of the stored energy. Integrating active insulation systems with building thermal storage systems can increase the flexibility of charging and discharging time and duration. In this study, a wall system equipped with an active insulation system and thermally activated storage system was designed, and its performance on active cooling energy contribution was studied. The performances of energy storage (charging), release (discharging) of the thermal energy storage energy, and the active insulation system were studied separately and together as an integrated system. Results showed that the thermal properties of the thermal energy storage core material and the pipe spacing of both embedded pipes in the thermal energy storage and hydronic pipes used in the active insulation system affected the wall performance the most out of all the tested wall system parameters. During discharging, the heat flux into the wall was as high as 81.92 W/m 2 . This active insulation system's dynamic R-value varied between less than 1ft 2 •°F•h/BTU (0.18 m 2 •K/W) to 98% of the equally thick foam insulation's R-value.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Modeling and Parametric Study of a Dual Purpose Underground Thermal Battery

Buildings’ thermal energy systems for providing space heating/cooling consume a considerable amount of electricity nationwide. Integrating thermal energy storage with buildings’ thermal systems has the potential to shave the peak electric demand and to overcome the mismatch between the intermittent renewable power and the fluctuating daily demand for electricity. A novel dual-purpose underground thermal battery (DPUTB) has been developed to provide diurnal thermal energy storage in conjunction with a dual-source heat pump (DSHP)system. A two-dimensional numerical model is developed to simulate the transient performance of the DPUTB. This model has similar accuracy as a detailed three-dimensional model developed with commercial heat transfer and fluid dynamics simulation program but with 1000 times faster computational speed. A parametric study is performed to identify a design of the DPUTB that can provide 14 kWh thermal storage capacity for each charging and discharging cycle. A system simulation has been developed to assess the performance of the designed DPUTB when it is integrated with a DSHP for conditioning a typical residential building in summer and winter. Simulation results indicate that the DPUTB can meet all the design requirements in both summer and winter with the simple rule-based control strategy and the overall integrated DPUTB and DSHP system can shift the electric load for meeting the thermal demand from the peak hours to off-peak hours during a day, which would result in considerable energy cost savings if a Time of Use electricity tariff is applicable.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimizing mixed cool thermal storage systems across a connected community

A high level of electric demand flexibility must be integrated into our building infrastructure to enable greater renewable energy penetration in the grid. In the U.S., 9% of electricity generated is used to cool buildings in a periodic manner, making this end-use an ideal target for active management through cool thermal energy storage (CTES) technologies. Historic uses for CTES are designed around central chilled water plants, but these systems cool less than 25% of U.S. commercial floorspace. Emerging technologies are under development to serve the many smaller distributed cooling systems, such as rooftop units (RTUs), and have the potential to add CTES to an additional 66% of cooled commercial floorspace. However, these unitary thermal storage systems (UTSS) lack the modeling and analysis tools to evaluate them in the future interactive grid context. Here, this study develops the modeling and optimization tools necessary to simultaneously examine central and distributed ice storage systems within the multi-building, connected community context. An integrated simulation-optimization workflow is created to allow for rapid customized analysis. Results demonstrate the energy and flexibility tradeoffs of various implementations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High Temperature Erosion Modeling in Particle Based CSP Systems

1. Introduction. Wear and erosion damage of materials from solid particle and surface interactions is a major issue in various industries. Although more common in mining and oil and gas production, erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as particle based concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In particle based CSP systems, solid particles are used to absorb solar energy and as thermal storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while through the system at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, requires a greater understanding of solid particle erosion in CSP systems. Throughout the years, models and tools have been developed to predict and control erosion in industries such as oil and gas production. However, these erosion models and erosion prediction tools have been mainly developed based on erosion data for much higher velocities and lower temperatures, i.e. the operating conditions for which the existing models have been built are not pertinent to those expected in CSP system. It is known that erosion depends on many factors such as material properties, erodent particle properties, and particle impact speed and angle. However, the effect of temperature on erosion is not vastly investigated. In this work, a temperature-based correlation is introduced that will be used to modify the existing erosion models to predict erosion rates at velocities and temperatures relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. The existing models are first validated against erosion experiments run at low temperatures and low velocities. Subsequently, a temperature correction term is developed that can extend the existing models to high temperatures, based on the available experimental data showing the effect of temperature on impact erosion. 2. Erosion Models. Continuing sequence of impacts from solid particles on surfaces would result in loss of material due to mechanical interaction between solid surface and particles. Erosion equations have been developed to predict erosion under different conditions and erosion mechanism, including cutting and deformation erosion. These models are mainly either mechanistic, empirical, and semi-mechanistic models, when the latter combine the theory of the erosion mechanism and particle motion with the available experimental data. One of the first empirical correlation was introduced by American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 14E [1]. This correlation was very conservative, and several improved empirical and semi-mechanistic equations were developed in the years following. More recently, the models introduced by Erosion/Corrosion Research Center (E/CRC) at the University of Tulsa and Arabnejad. et al. [2] are frequently used in the literature and industry, as they account for many parameters affecting erosion including particle impact speed and angle, material density and hardness, and particle size and shape. However, both these models were developed based on data at relatively high velocities and also do not take into account any mechanical changes in material associated with thermal cycling at high temperatures. 3. Erosion Prediction at High Temperatures. In this work, the accuracy of Arabnejad et al. model and E/CRC model is investigated to predict impact erosion at conditions relevant to Gen3 CSP systems. Two significant deviations expected in Gen3 systems compared to operating conditions used to build these models are particle impact velocities and system temperature. As a first step, the performance of these models was validated at low velocities and temperatures. Impact erosion experiments were conducted on SS316 coupons using HSP 40/70 ceramic particles. Assuming particle rate of 1 kg/s/m, 0.0254 m of particle curtain thickness, and particle velocity of 1.5 m/s in the system, an overall erosion of 0.59 mm/year was calculated. The experimental results were subsequently compared to those from computational simulations and erosion of 0.47 mm/year was obtained using the Arabnejad et al. model. The results indicated that the models work well at low velocities and low temperature conditions. To account for temperature effect, a mathematical correlation was developed using data published by DUCOM [3] for Inconel 600 eroded by alumina particles at high velocities. The correlation was applied to both Arabnejad et. al model and the E/CRC model. The prediction results from these modified models were within 20% of this experimental data. Predictions of of erosion by the modified E/CRC model at three different temperatures are made. Similar to the calculation at low temperature, a typical CSP system with 1 kg/s/m of particle flow rate per unit length of the particle curtain and a curtain thickness of 0.0254 m is assumed. The annual thickness loss calculations were run for different particle impact velocities, assuming a uniform particle impact area equal to the cross-sectional area of the curtain (particle-particle interactions and dispersion of particles are not considered in obtaining the results). It is observed that erosion increases exponentially as temperature increases. Furthermore, it is also noted that, erosion changes non-linearly with impact velocity. Currently, experiments are also being conducted to measure erosion of SS316 at 800 ºC with HSP 40/70 particles at low impact velocities. We expect to use the results from high temperature testing to further improve the temperature correlation function. Similar models are also being developed for abrasion erosion resulting from particle sliding along the surfaces as well as attrition from particle to particle and particle to surface interactions. References. [1] Institute, A. P. (1991). API Recommended Practice for Design and Installation of Offshore Production Platform Piping System, API RP 14E. [2] Arabnejad, H., Mansouri, A., Shirazi, S. A., and McLaury, B. S. (2015a). Development of mechanistic erosion equation for solid particles. Wear, 332–333, 1044–1050. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.wear.2015.01.031. [3] https://ducom.com/high-temperature-erosion-evaluating-sample-wear/

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Concentrating Solar Power to Create a Geological Thermal Energy Reservoir for Seasonal Storage and Flexible Power Plant Operation

Abstract We propose a hybrid renewable energy system—a geothermal energy storage system (GeoTES) with solar—to provide low-cost dispatchable power at various timescales from daily, to weekly, to seasonally. GeoTES with solar uses a concentrating solar power collector field to produce hot water that is injected into a sedimentary basin to create a synthetic geothermal resource. The stored geothermal heat can then be dispatched when required by the electrical grid. GeoTES is particularly valuable for a grid with a high penetration of non-flexible renewable technologies such as photovoltaic and wind power. In this work, a sophisticated hybrid model is developed to assess the technical and economic potential of GeoTES by combining IPSEpro, which is a power-cycle simulation tool, and SAM, an economic analysis tool by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The analysis shows with proper initial charging period that the heat loss in storage is almost negligible and is a suitable technology for long-term energy storage. Various power-cycle options are evaluated, and the most suitable power cycle is selected for further study. Annual calculations of the GeoTES system indicate that a levelized cost of storage (LCOS) of 12.4 ¢/kWh e can be achieved for seasonal storage of 4000 h; this value is much lower than the existing long-term storage. The LCOS of GeoTES is insensitive to the storage duration above 8 h, unlike battery and molten-salt thermal storage systems. This result demonstrates that GeoTES can be a competitive seasonal storage technology in the future electricity market. The levelized cost of electricity of the GeoTES system is also carefully analyzed and can vary between 10.0 and 16.4 ¢/kWh e , depending on solar-collector prices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep reinforcement learning based optimization for a tightly coupled nuclear renewable integrated energy system

New ways to integrate energy systems to maximize efficiency are being sought to meet carbon emissions goals. Nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) concepts are a leading solution that couples a nuclear power plant with renewable energy, hydrogen generation plants, and energy storage systems, such that thermal and electrical power are dispatchable to fulfill grid-flexibility requirements while also producing hydrogen and maximizing revenue. Here, this paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based framework to address the complex decision-making tasks for NR-IES. The objective is to maximize revenue by generating and selling hydrogen and electricity simultaneously according to their time-varying prices while keeping the energy flow in the subsystems in balance. A Python-based simulator for a NR-IES concept has been developed to integrate with OpenAI Gym and Ray/RLlib to enable an efficient and flexible computational framework for DRL research and development. Three state-of-the-art DRL algorithms have been investigated, including two-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), soft-actor critic (SAC), proximal policy optimization (PPO), to illustrate DRL’s superiority for controlling NR-IES by comparing it with a conventional control approach, particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this effort, PPO has shown more-stable performance and also better generalization capability than SAC and TD3. Comparisons with PSO have demonstrated that, on average, PPO can achieve 13.9% more mean episode returns from the training process and 29.4% more mean episode returns from the testing process when different hydrogen-production targets are applied.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fluid renewable geo-energy systems and methods

A geo-energy production system and method extracts thermal energy from a reservoir formation, and stores either thermal waste heat or excess heat in a storage zone of the reservoir formation. A compressed fluid injection injects an unheated, compressed working fluid into the storage zone. A fluid injection well injects a working fluid laden with thermal waste heat or excess heat into the storage zone. The storage zone is located below a caprock layer and above a native brine zone of the reservoir formation and is partially circumscribed by a hot brine storage zone. The compressed working fluid assists with a withdrawal of pressurized brine residing below and/or to the sides of the storage zone. A compressed CO2, N2, or air production well helps to remove compressed working fluid from the storage zone for use in power production.

Buscheck, Thomas A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chapter 2: Thermal Energy Storage for Energy Decarbonization

Thermal energy storage (TES) deployed with concentrating solar power (CSP) has shown value and capabilities in generating dispatchable power. It has attracted significant interest for potential roles in energy storage for various capacities and applications. Energy storage plays an important role in expanding renewable generation and is becoming indispensable in future carbon-free electric power. TES development and deployment provide various possibilities for electric storage and have shown advantages in capacity and flexibility to support renewable integration. In addition, renewable energy integrated with a low-cost TES system can potentially provide a reliable thermal energy supply to displace fossil fuels for broad decarbonization. Varieties of TES technologies and developments breed new areas of growth in TES materials, designs, components, and system configurations, which provide opportunities for substantial cost reduction and performance improvements to meet the technoeconomic challenges in practical applications. This chapter will describe recent progress in thermal energy storage research and development and primarily focus on sensible heat storage and its applications in supplying reliable electricity and industry process heat by integrating with variable renewable energy.

concentrating solar thermal power↗
DOE OSTI2020

EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF IMPACT AND ABRASION EROSIONS AT LOW VELOCITIES AND COMPARISON TO CFD SIMULATIONS

Wear and erosion damage of materials due to interaction of the surface with solid particles is a major issue in various industries. This phenomenon is common in mining, and oil and gas production, causing damages worth millions of dollars annually. Erosion is becoming a critical issue in renewable technologies as well such as concentrated solar thermal power (CSP) systems. In some CSP systems, solid particles can be used to absorb solar energy and enhance the heat storage. However, these particles may cause significant amount of wear to system components while falling down the power tower at high temperatures. This damage can be costly, and therefore, investigating solid particle erosion in CSP systems is of utmost importance. In collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories, the erosion durability of particle-based Generation 3 (GEN3) CSP system are being investigated both experimentally and numerically. In order to develop models to predict the life time of such systems, erosion under low temperature and low particle impact velocity conditions are investigated. Impact erosion and abrasion erosion experiments are conducted for low velocity and low temperature conditions for various candidate particles and containment materials. The impact erosion testing is conducted for three different containment material including Stainless Steel 316, special refractory material, and Inconel 740H with CARBOBEAD HSP 40/70 ceramic particles and UNIWEST 430 silica quartz erodent particles. All this data will enable us to better model the erosion behavior of these materials and provides a data base to investigate erosion at high temperatures experienced in CSP systems. At low temperatures and low velocities the softer refractory material exhibited greater erosion by an order-of-magnitude when compared to the harder Inconel 740H and Stainless Steel 316 materials. The overall erosion ratio for all the candidate materials was of the order of 10 -7 kg/kg. We also investigated wear in containment materials from sliding of particles over the surfaces at very low angles, also referred to as abrasion. For the velocities expected in a typical 1MW CSP plant, visible surface wear was noted, but the overall mass loss per unit surface area was found to be dependent on the hardness of the containment material tested. In this manuscript, we also present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations and erosion prediction of low velocity impact erosion. These results are compared with the experimental data to evaluate the ability of available erosion models for predicting erosion under these conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Kivalina Biomass Reactor

This report summarizes work performed under DOE Award DE-EE00010149 to support the reliable operation of a community-scale biochar reactor system in Kivalina, Alaska. The project focused on improving sanitation and waste management in a remote community by assessing the installed system, identifying spare parts, defining key performance indicators (KPIs), preparing operator and maintenance manuals, and developing mobile reporting tools for operational data and KPI tracking. The team also produced training materials and recorded videos to support operator onboarding and continuity. The project demonstrated progress in system readiness, documentation, and digital reporting, while also identifying challenges common to remote deployments, including travel constraints, upstream system failures, and local resource limitations. This work provides a practical framework for improving the operation, monitoring, and future replication of biomass reactor systems in remote communities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing the Benefits of On-Site Renewable Energy Generation Using On-Site Energy Storage

The commercial and industrial building sectors have a major role to play in a U.S. low-carbon future. Building owners can make a difference by deploying on-site renewable generation and storage technologies, which facilitates future-proofing their buildings as well as more effectively meeting the service requirements of the building. This resource provides an overview of common generation, storage, and load management technologies in behind-the-meter systems, and serves as a primer to demonstrate the impact on net building loads required from the grid for different sizes of renewable generation along with on-site electrical and thermal storage. These discussions can help commercial building owners communicate the value of these systems to project teams and develop innovative behind-the-meter solutions to achieve their energy goals.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Potential of Utilizing Thermal Energy Storage Integrated Ground Source Heat Pump System to Reshape Electricity Demand in the United States

Each year, more than 20% of electricity generated in the United States is consumed for meeting the thermal demands (e.g., space cooling, space heating, and water heating) in residential and commercial buildings. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with building’s HVAC systems has the potential to reshape the electric load profile of the building and mitigate the mismatch between the renewable generation and the demand of buildings. A novel ground source heat pump (GSHP) system integrated with underground thermal energy storage (UTES) has been proposed to level the electric demand of buildings while still satisfying their thermal demands. This study assessed the potential impacts of the proposed system with a bottom-up approach. The impacts on the electricity demand in various electricity markets were quantified. The results show that, within the capacity of the existing electric grids, the maximum penetration rate of the proposed system in different wholesale markets could range from 51% to 100%. Altogether, about 46 million single-family detached houses can be retrofitted into the proposed system without increasing the annual peak demand of the corresponding markets. By implementing the proposed system at its maximum penetration rate, the grid-level summer peak demand can be reduced by 9.1% to 18.2%. Meanwhile, at the grid level, the annual electricity consumption would change by –12% to 2%. The nationwide total electricity consumption would be reduced by 9%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗