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At least 73 records · Page 4

Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling

Abstract. Major multi-reservoir cascades represent a primary mechanism for dealing with hydrologic variability and extremes within institutionally complex river basins worldwide. These coordinated management processes fundamentally reshape water balance dynamics. Yet, multi-reservoir coordination processes have been largely ignored in the increasingly sophisticated representations of reservoir operations within large-scale hydrological models. The aim of this paper is twofold, namely (i) to provide evidence that the common modeling practice of parameterizing each reservoir in a cascade independently from the others is a significant approximation and (ii) to demonstrate potential unintended consequences of this independence approximation when simulating the dynamics of hydrological extremes in complex reservoir cascades. We explore these questions using the Water Balance Model, which features detailed representations of the human infrastructure coupled to the natural processes that shape water balance dynamics. It is applied to the Upper Snake River basin in the western US and its heavily regulated multi-reservoir cascade. We employ a time-varying sensitivity analysis that utilizes the method of Morris factor screening to explicitly track how the dominant release rule parameters evolve both along the cascade and in time according to seasonal high- and low-flow events. This enables us to address aim (i) by demonstrating how the progressive and cumulative dominance of upstream releases significantly dampens the ability of downstream reservoir rules' parameters to influence flow conditions. We address aim (ii) by comparing simulation results with observed reservoir operations during critical low-flow and high-flow events in the basin. Our time-varying parameter sensitivity analysis with the method of Morris clarifies how independent single-reservoir parameterizations and their tacit assumption of independence leads to reservoir release behaviors that generate artificial water shortages and flooding, whereas the observed coordinated cascade operations avoided these outcomes for the same events. To further explore the role of (non-)coordination in the large deviations from the observed operations, we use an offline multi-reservoir water balance model in which adding basic coordination mechanisms drawn from the observed emergency operations is sufficient to correct the deficiencies of the independently parameterized reservoir rules from the hydrological model. These results demonstrate the importance of understanding the state–space context in which reservoir releases occur and where operational coordination plays a crucial role in avoiding or mitigating water-related extremes. Understanding how major infrastructure is coordinated and controlled in major river basins is essential for properly assessing future flood and drought hazards in a changing world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial Community Composition in Deep‐Subsurface Reservoir Fluids Reveals Natural Interwell Connectivity

Abstract The identification of natural fractures and the wells they connect is crucial for the development of geological reservoirs because it may have an important impact on reservoir model construction and hydraulic fracture propagation. In this study we investigated the use of a novel data source, the microbial community composition in the reservoir formation fluids, for identification of interwell connectivity caused by natural fractures. We verified this concept at a newly developed mesoscale enhanced geothermal system (EGS) field testbed located 4,850 ft (1,478 m) beneath ground surface at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, SD. Fluids produced at or near the EGS testbed were sampled and subjected to high‐throughput 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to analyze the microbial community profile therein. Despite the typically substantial heterogeneity across the community profiles of samples spatially distributed (10 m to 1.9 km apart) throughout the site, samples from two wells at the EGS testbed showed highly similar microbial community composition, suggesting the two wells intersected the same natural fracture. This evidence of natural connectivity between the two wells at the EGS testbed was later corroborated by core log analysis and sewer camera surveys into the boreholes. Besides the field case described in this study, microbial community composition as a reservoir diagnostic tool would be applicable in a much broader context such as unconventional hydrocarbon exploitation, groundwater reservoir characterization, and environmental remediation, adding valuable “hard” data capable of pinpointing the origins of fluids unambiguously.

Zhang, Yuran↗

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multiscale recurrent neural network model for predicting energy production from geothermal reservoirs

Optimization of energy production from geothermal reservoirs requires reliable prediction of energy production performance under alternative operation and development scenarios. Traditionally, reservoir simulation models are used for the evaluation and screening of alternative production and development plans. However, simulation models require extensive data collection and modeling efforts and are time-consuming to build, run, and update. Data-driven predictive models, on the other hand, can serve as efficient prediction tools that can be used for decision support and management of daily operations and surveillance activities. Data-driven models become particularly attractive when a reservoir simulation model for a field does not exist and/or is difficult to build. Machine learning (ML)-based data-driven models that have recently become popular in several fields exploit statistical patterns and relations in training data to generate predictions. As such, they tend to perform better in interpolation problems (that is, prediction within the training data range) than when they are used to extrapolate beyond the training data. Production data from geothermal reservoirs tend to exhibit short-term variabilities as well as long-term trends, such as monotonically declining production temperatures. Capturing both short-term features and long-term trends with ML-based models is not trivial. We evaluate the use of recurrent neural networks (RNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. RNN is a class of ML architectures that are used to represent and predict sequential/dynamic data. Thus, it can be challenging to apply RNN to problems where long-term trends must be captured and extrapolation beyond the training data range is needed. We introduce the multiscale RNN architecture to extend the application of RNN to detect and predict both short-term variabilities and long-term trends in geothermal data. The developed architecture consists of a long-term component to only capture low-frequency data patterns, and a short-term component to detect features with higher frequency and more nonlinearity. The final prediction is obtained by combining the long-term and short-term predictions. Both synthetic and field data are used to evaluate the presented multiscale RNN model. The prediction performance of the multiscale RNN is compared against those obtained from the regular RNN and the autoregressive (AR) model. The results suggest that the multiscale architecture improves the long-term prediction performance of the regular RNN and enhances its robustness against noise.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

CO2 Plume Imaging with Accelerated Deep Learning-based Data Assimilation Considering Multiple Realizations: Application to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Carbon Sequestration Project

We propose a fast and efficient deep learning workflow for near real-time data assimilation, forecasting and visualization of CO2 plume evolution in saline aquifer and demonstrate its application at a field site. Unlike the previous work, this study incorporates the impact of spatial heterogeneity using multiple realizations. In the proposed workflow, a neural network model utilizes available monitoring data such as downhole pressure measurements as input and predicts the propagating pressure ‘front’ using the diffusive time of flight (DTOF) map which is considered as representative reservoir image of the flow field. The DTOF is the arrival time of pressure front propagation, which can be computed by the Fast Marching Method rapidly without flow simulations. Reservoir model calibration can be implemented by selecting the training data samples that describe the predicted DTOF map based on observed data. The power and efficacy of our workflow is demonstrated by application to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project.

CO2 plume imaging↗

Numerical Simulations of Gas Production from Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Prudhoe Bay Unit 7-11-12 Pad on Alaska North Slope

In December 2018, a partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL), the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) successfully drilled and logged the Hydrate-01 Stratigraphic Test Well (STW) in the greater Prudhoe Bay oil field on Alaska North Slope. The logging-while-drilling (LWD) data confirmed the presence of gas hydrate-bearing reservoirs within two sand reservoirs (Unit B and Unit D) that are suitable targets for future testing. The interpreted log data and core sample measurements were used to create reservoir models for the Prudhoe Bay Unit (PBU) Kuparuk 7-11-12 Site. The models combine both gas hydrate-bearing sections in Unit B and Unit D together with the intermediate Unit C and over- and underburden sands and shales. The vertical heterogeneity in porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and permeability distributions for reservoir and non-reservoir units was implemented using fine mesh discretization. The depressurization method was applied to Unit B to induce gas hydrate destabilization at constant bottom hole pressure (BHP) values. The results of the numerical simulations support the development of production scenarios, well design, surface facilities, and field test procedures with the main goal to perform efficient and safe scientific production testing. Project results contribute to the knowledge base of permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations as a future energy source.

Myshakin, Evgeniy↗

Assessing the potential of composite confining systems for secure and long-term CO 2 retention in geosequestration

A potential geologic target for CO 2 storage should ensure secure containment of injected CO 2 . Traditionally, this objective has been achieved by targeting reservoirs with overlying seals-regionally extensive, low permeability units that have been proven capable of retaining buoyant fluid accumulations over geologic time. However, considering that the amount of CO 2 is limited by a decadal injection period, vertical migration of CO 2 can be effectively halted by a composite system of discontinuous shale/silt/mudstone barriers in bedded sedimentary rocks. Here, we studied the impact of depositional architectures in a composite confining system on CO 2 migration and confinement at reservoir scale. We stochastically generated lithologically heterogeneous reservoir models containing discontinuous barriers consistent with statistical distributions of net-sand-to-gross-shale ratio (NTG) and horizontal correlation lengths derived from well log data and observations of producing hydrocarbon fields in Southern Louisiana. We then performed an extensive suite of reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection and post-injection to evaluate the sensitivity of CO 2 plume migration and pressure response of the composite system to a series of geologic and fluid parameters including the lateral continuity of barriers, NTG, permeability anisotropy within the sand body, and capillary pressure contrast between the sand and shale facies. The results indicate that lateral continuity of barriers and NTG are the dominant controls on CO 2 plume geometry and pressure build-up in the reservoir, while the impact of NTG is particularly pronounced. The significance of intraformational barriers becomes apparent as they facilitate the local capillary trapping of CO 2 . Those barriers improve the pore space occupancy by promoting a more dispersed shape of the plume and ultimately retard the buoyancy-driven upward migration of the plume post injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Changes in rock matrix compressibility during deep CO 2 storage

Geologic carbon storage projects aim to permanently trap large volumes of CO 2 in reservoir rock sealed with low permeability layers. As high-pressure supercritical or liquid CO 2 is injected, hydromechanical and chemical processes caused by the reaction between the rock and acidic mixture of brine and CO 2 are initiated. The compressibility of reservoir rock needs to be properly characterized in order to assess the deformation and stability of the host formations, and there are a number of factors to be considered, including the matrix structure, solid, pores, and fluid. Here this study triggers from a fundamental question whether CO 2 treatment affects the compressibility of the rock matrix and its dominant composing solid minerals. Three different reservoir representatives are selected: Berea sandstone for silica-rich rock, and Apulian limestone and Indiana limestone for calcite-rich rock. Quartz and calcite are the main composing minerals of the reservoir rock, and their crystals are separately examined. Experimental methods are introduced for high-pressure CO 2 treatment of water-saturated materials, and measurements of the unjacketed and solid compressibilities are conducted. No change in the solid compressibility of the sandstone and quartz after CO 2 treatment is observed, whereas it increases by 18–21% for the limestones and by 15% for calcite. The latter observation is inconsistent with the ultrasonic wave velocities measurements and is believed to be due to the local dissolution of the calcite crystal surface. Our results show that only the solid matrix of the limestones becomes more compressible after CO 2 treatment. Consequent microimaging and mercury intrusion porosimetry analyses allowed observations of dissolution and precipitation of calcite, and creation of new connected and non-connected pores. Finally, the changes in limestone solid compressibilities and pore structure could significantly affect the rock properties and behavior during and after CO 2 injection and should be accounted for in the reservoir models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Wellbore injectivity response to step-rate CO 2 injection: Coupled thermo-poro-elastic analysis in a vertically heterogeneous formation

Safe and permanent carbon geological storages require an elaborate analysis of geomechanical stability. Subsurface injection of CO 2 changes the local temperature and pore pressure and, further, alters the stress due to thermo-poro-elastic responses. A permanent CO 2 storage testing was conducted in the water leg of Cranfield reservoir in Mississippi, USA, where hosted CO 2 enhanced-oil recovery activities. During CO 2 injection, the injection rate was ramped up twice but the bottom-hole pressure did not increase with the imposed injection rates as expected. This unexpected field observation suggests the possibility of an open-mode fracture development at the injector. However, the injector response and potential fracture development have not been rigorously interpreted with detailed near-wellbore temperature and pore pressure change upon the CO 2 injection. In this study, we performed history matching of CO 2 injection using coupled thermo-poro-elastic reservoir simulation to examine the possibility of fracturing. We built a reservoir model including vertical heterogeneity in both petrophysical and geomechanical properties estimated from well-logging analysis and laboratory experiments. The simulation results show that CO 2 injection changes stresses and support the hypothesis of development of an open-mode fracture at the injector during the Cranfield test. The near-injector region exhibits a large temperature reduction up to 55 °C with ensuing effective horizontal stress reduction up to 9.1 MPa. However, a caprock integrity issue is unlikely because of the horizontal stress contrast within layers and low hydraulic communication with the injection zone. This work indicates that the injectant temperature should be considered in the design of high-rate CO 2 injector.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Matrix-Free High-Performance Saddle-Point Solvers for High-Order Problems in \(\boldsymbol{H}(\operatorname{\textbf{div}})\)

Here, this work describes the development of matrix-free GPU-accelerated solvers for high-order finite element problems in H(div). The solvers are applicable to grad-div and Darcy problems in saddle-point formulation, and have applications in radiation diffusion and porous media flow problems, among others. Using the interpolation–histopolation basis, efficient matrix-free preconditioners can be constructed for the (1, 1)-block and Schur complement of the block system. With these approximations, block-preconditioned MINRES converges in a number of iterations that is independent of the mesh size and polynomial degree. The approximate Schur complement takes the form of an M-matrix graph Laplacian and therefore can be well-preconditioned by highly scalable algebraic multigrid methods. High-performance GPU-accelerated algorithms for all components of the solution algorithm are developed, discussed, and benchmarked. Numerical results are presented on a number of challenging test cases, including the “crooked pipe” grad-div problem, the SPE10 reservoir modeling benchmark problem, and a nonlinear radiation diffusion test case.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiwell Fiber Optic Sensing Reveals Effects of CO2 Flow on Triggered Seismicity

Induced seismicity is one of the main risks for gigaton-scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (⁠CO 2 ⁠). Thus, passive seismic monitoring is often recommended as a necessary component of the monitoring systems for CO 2 storage projects, with a particular forcus on risk mitigation. We present the first field study, CO2CRC Otway Project Stage 3 (Victoria, Australia), where distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enabled high-precision tracking of the induced seismicity triggered by a small CO 2 injection and also informed the reservoir models. In 610 days of passive seismic monitoring of the Stage 3 injection, we detected 17 microseismic events (maximum moment magnitude Mw 0.1) using five deep boreholes equipped with enhanced-sensitivity optical fiber. The DAS array has sensitivity sufficient for detection and location of induced events with M w ~ ₋2 in a monitoring borehole located up to 1500 m away. Thanks to the dense spatial sampling by the DAS, we were able to estimate the focal mechanisms for events with M w > ₋1.5; although the monitoring boreholes provided very limited angular coverage. The main cluster of the events has the same location and source mechanism as the one triggered by the previous CO 2 injection at the Otway Project site, Stage 2C. Surprizingly, the Stage 2C and Stage 3 events closely followed the actual movement of the CO 2 saturation plume front (not the pressure front), as observed using controlled-source reflection seismic images. The nature of the plume-fault interaction remains unclear, but some alteration of the fault gouge by CO 2 might be responsible for the faults’ reactivation by the pressure perturbation. Importantly, the seismogenic fault could not be identified in the seismic images and was only revealed by DAS observations, which also demonstrated the signature of fluid–rock interaction, that may control the CO 2 flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

SMART – A Comprehensive Research and Development Program to Demonstrate Application of Machine Learning for Supporting CCS Deployment

Presentation material for a paper presented at the GHGT-17 conference, Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. The objective of the US Department of Energy’s SMART Initiative, i.e., Science-informed Machine Learning (ML) for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications, is to showcase how the utilization of ML can significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of field-scale commercial carbon storage operations. This paper will present the results from the current phase of SMART (field deployment) for demonstrating the applicability of ML-based tools and workflows for: (a) virtual learning during the pre-injection permitting phase, (b) advanced storage reservoir imaging to better characterize fractures and faults, and (c) dynamic storage reservoir modelling and optimization to inform operational decision making and visualization of system evolution.

CO2 geologic storage↗

Big Data Meets Geothermal Exploration (CRADA Final Report)

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc. investigated the application of micro-earthquake and ambient noise seismology methods to imaging and characterizing the structural characteristics and hydrothermal flux of subsurface faults. Significant advances in what could be resolved were enabled by two major developments in seismology: 1) the availability of large-n arrays of low-cost seismometers, and 2) the availability of increased computational power and semi-automated data reduction algorithms. In tandem, these advances may improve the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial precision of the data collected and enable higher-resolution characterization of subsurface fracture systems and their spatio-temporal evolution. These tools supported efforts to reduce dry-hole risk and to improve wellfield productivity for geothermal resource development. In particular, two applications of these advances were evaluated: 1) fracture-seismic imaging, which was used to detect ambient emissions from fluid-filled fractures, and 2) reservoir tomography, which used information about travel paths, source locations, and source parameters of micro-earthquakes to identify areas of enhanced permeability. Integration of these methods provided guidance for siting wells and served as prior constraints for reservoir models, informing forecasts of power potential and production and injection strategies aimed at minimizing temperature decline and improving overall resource productivity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

SMART – A Comprehensive Research and Development Program to Demonstrate Application of Machine Learning for Supporting CCS Deployment

The objective of the US Department of Energy’s SMART Initiative, i.e., Science-informed Machine Learning (ML) for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications, is to showcase how the utilization of ML can significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of field-scale commercial carbon storage operations. This paper will present the results from the current phase of SMART (field deployment) for demonstrating the applicability of ML-based tools and workflows for: (a) virtual learning during the pre-injection permitting phase, (b) advanced storage reservoir imaging to better characterize fractures and faults, and (c) dynamic storage reservoir modelling and optimization to inform operational decision making and visualization of system evolution.

Siriwardane, Hema↗