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NASA NTRS2021

Strategies for the Design and Operation of Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitats

An Earth-independent permanent extraterrestrial habitat system must function as intended under continuous disruptive conditions, and with significantly limited Earth support and extended uncrewed periods. Designing for the demands that extreme environments such as wild temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, meteoroid impacts (direct or indirect), vibrations, and solar particle events, will place on long-term deep space habitats represents one of the greatest challenges in this endeavor. This context necessitates that we establish the know-how and technologies to build habitat systems that are resilient. Resilience is not simply robustness or redundancy: it is a system property that accounts for both anticipated and unanticipated disruptions via the design choices and maintenance processes, and adapts to them in operation. We currently lack the frameworks and technologies needed to achieve a high level of resilience in a habitat system. The Resilient Extra Terrestrial Habitats Institute (RETHi) has the mission of leveraging existing novel technologies to provide situational awareness and autonomy to enable the design of habitats that are able to adapt, absorb and rapidly recover from expected and unexpected disruptions. We are establishing both fully virtual and coupled physical-virtual simulation capabilities that will enable us to explore a wide range of potential deep space Smart Hab configurations and operating modes.

Space habitats↗

NASA NTRS2021

Strategies for the Design and Operation of Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitats

An Earth-independent permanent extraterrestrial habitat system must function as intended under continuous disruptive conditions, and with significantly limited Earth support and extended uncrewed periods. Designing for the demands that extreme environments such as wild temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, meteoroid impacts (direct or indirect), vibrations, and solar particle events, will place on long-term deep space habitats represents one of the greatest challenges in this endeavor. This context necessitates that we establish the know-how and technologies to build habitat systems that are resilient. Resilience is not simply robustness or redundancy: it is a system property that accounts for both anticipated and unanticipated disruptions via the design choices and maintenance processes and adapts to them in operation. We currently lack the frameworks and technologies needed to achieve a high level of resilience in a habitat system. The Resilient ExtraTerrestrial Habitats Institute (RETHi) has the mission of leveraging existing novel technologies to provide situational awareness and autonomy to enable the design of habitats that are able to adapt, absorb and rapidly recover from expected and unexpected disruptions. We are establishing both fully virtual and coupled physical-virtual simulation capabilities that will enable us to explore a wide range of potential deep space SmartHab configurations and operating modes.

Space habitats↗

NASA NTRS2001

Airbag vent valve and system

An energy absorbing airbag system includes one or more vent valve assemblies for controlling the release of airbag inflation gases to maintain inflation gas pressure within an airbag at a substantially constant pressure during a ride-down of an energy absorbing event. Each vent valve assembly includes a cantilever spring that is flat in an unstressed condition and that has a free end portion. The cantilever spring is secured to an exterior surface of the airbag housing and flexed to cause the second free end portion of the cantilever spring to be pressed, with a preset force, against a vent port or a closure covering the vent port to seal the vent port until inflation gas pressure within the airbag reaches a preselected value determined by the preset force whereupon the free end portion of the cantilever spring is lifted from the vent port by the inflation gases within the airbag to vent the inflation gases from within the airbag. The resilience of the cantilever spring maintains a substantially constant pressure within the airbag during a ride-down portion of an energy absorbing event by causing the cantilever spring to vent gases through the vent port whenever the pressure of the inflation gases reaches the preselected value and by causing the cantilever spring to close the vent port whenever the pressure of the inflation gases falls below the preselected value.

Peterson, Leslie D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Achieving Sustainability Goals for Urban Coasts in the US Northeast: Research Needs and Challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.

urban coasts↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extreme Problem Solving II: How Can 4 Astronauts do the Jobs of 80 Experts?

On past and present space missions, resilience is largely dependent on the problem-solving expertise of flight controllers at Mission Control on the ground. Missions to Mars will instead experience long communication delays and blackouts that require a small crew to detect, diagnose, and respond to critical events with only intermittent and limited real-time ground support. Our 2021 SpaceCHI paper “Extreme Problem Solving: The New Challenges of Deep Space Exploration” introduced the paradigm shift of increasingly Earth-independent mission operations and identified the capabilities that are not currently available on-board but will be needed to enable safe exploration beyond low-Earth orbit [1]. This paper investigates how the ground team achieves resilience today to inform what will be needed to achieve human-systems resilience on future long duration exploration missions – how can a crew of four generalists achieve the same outcomes as a team of 80+ experts? An actual ISS anomaly is analyzed and then reimagined under Mars transit conditions, to reveal critical decision-points and the onboard capabilities that will be needed for successful resolution. This paper also presents criteria for what makes urgent, unanticipated events so challenging to resolve.

human-systems integration architecture↗

NASA NTRS2018

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

NASA NTRS2010

Near Real-Time Optimal Prediction of Adverse Events in Aviation Data

The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we demonstrate how to recast the anomaly prediction problem into a form whose solution is accessible as a level-crossing prediction problem. The level-crossing prediction problem has an elegant, optimal, yet untested solution under certain technical constraints, and only when the appropriate modeling assumptions are made. As such, we will thoroughly investigate the resilience of these modeling assumptions, and show how they affect final performance. Finally, the predictive capability of this method will be assessed by quantitative means, using both validation and test data containing anomalies or adverse events from real aviation data sets that have previously been identified as operationally significant by domain experts. It will be shown that the formulation proposed yields a lower false alarm rate on average than competing methods based on similarly advanced concepts, and a higher correct detection rate than a standard method based upon exceedances that is commonly used for prediction.

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Contribution of Pilots to Resilience in Normal Operations. Part II: A closer look at briefings: Anticipation and Monitoring Also Known as Planning and Coordination

Much of our knowledge about human performance in flight safety has come from the analysis of undesired events, whether accidents, incidents, or crew behaviors identified via flight exceedance monitoring or observational techniques. In recent years, there has been an acknowledgement that operational personnel are not merely sources of “human error”, but also make a unique human contribution to safe outcomes. In a few celebrated cases, this takes the form of “heroic saves”, but on many more occasions, operational personnel contribute to safety through everyday, often-unnoticed actions that turn potentially hazardous situations into non-events. An emerging approach to safety, frequently referred to as “Safety II,” proposes that the positive human contribution is an important and largely untapped source of safety information. Some airlines have successfully trained observers to identify and record the positive behaviors exhibited by the crew over the course of a flight. In other cases, flight crew are interviewed about good practices or positive behaviors. However, each of these methods are relatively limited in scale and resource intensive. A survey could provide a relatively low-cost approach to systematically gather this information on a larger scale. The primary purpose of the research was to develop and assess a surveys methodology for assessing crews' activities in normal flights and the operational perturbations encountered during normal operations. We hope that such a survey could be both a research tool as well as a safety management aid for the aviation industry. We collected responses concerning revenue flights from two groups of airline pilots (N = 25 & N= 65). The results indicated that relatively few flights proceeded exactly as in the original flight plan. Pilots routinely anticipated and adapted to changing circumstances. We will review the challenges encountered in developing the survey and summarize preliminary findings from two administrations of the survey to airline pilots.

human contribution safety↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development of Storage Methods for Saccharomyces Strains to be Utilized for In situ Nutrient Production in Long-Duration Space Missions

Long-duration space missions will benefit from closed-loop life support technologies that minimize mass, volume, and power as well as decrease reliance on Earth-based resupply. A system for In situ production of essential vitamins and nutrients can address the documented problem of degradation of stored food and supplements. Research has shown that the edible yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae can be used as an on-demand system for the production of various compounds that are beneficial to human health. A critical objective in the development of this approach for long-duration space missions is the effective storage of the selected microorganisms. This research investigates the effects of different storage methods on survival rates of the non-sporulating probiotic S. boulardii, and S. cerevisiae spores and vegetative cells. Dehydration has been shown to increase long-term yeast viability, which also allows increased shelf-life and reduction in mass and volume. The process of dehydration causes detrimental effects on vegetative cells, including oxidative damage and membrane disruption. To maximize cell viability, various dehydration methods are tested here, including lyophilization (freeze-drying), air drying, and dehydration by vacuum. As a potential solution to damage caused by lyophilization, the efficacy of various cryoprotectants was tested. Furthermore, in an attempt to maintain higher survival rates, the effect of temperature during long-term storage was investigated. Data show spores of the wild-type strain to be more resilient to dehydration-related stressors than vegetative cells of either strain, and maintain high viability rates even after one year at room temperature. In the event that engineering the organism to produce targeted nutrient compounds interferes with effective sporulation of S. cerevisiae, a more robust method for improving vegetative cell storage is being sought. Therefore, anhydrobiotic engineering of S. cerevisiae and S. boulardii is being conducted

nutrient↗

NASA NTRS2017

Development of Storage Methods for Saccharomyces Strains to be Utilized for In Situ Nutrient Production in Long-Duration Space Missions

life support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Simulation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Northern Great Plains Disasters: Using Earth Observations to Enhance Flood Monitoring on Tribal Lands in the Northern Great Plains

In 2019, the Great Plains experienced unprecedented catastrophic flooding. Large flood events are predicted to increase in frequency and severity, posing risks to communities in this region, particularly Tribal Nations. We used data from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), imagery from the Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and digital elevation models (DEMs) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) within Google Earth Engine to map historical floods in the region beginning in 2014 with particular attention to the Rosebud Sioux Reservation and the tribal lands of other Great Plains Tribal Water Alliance members. This historical mapping used C-SAR for a combined method approach with a Z-score algorithm in addition to an index for flooded short vegetation. We also developed a flood risk map by weighting different flood predictor variables according to flood risk literature. These variables included soil drainage from the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO); elevation, slope, and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) derived from digital elevation models; precipitation from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS); land cover from the National Land Cover Database (NLDC); and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). From the flood extent and risk maps, we identified widespread flooding in short vegetation (including cropland) and noted flood susceptibility in regions exhibiting high social vulnerability and low community resilience (FEMA indices). We created an ArcGIS Online StoryMap to share project background, results, and data. Additionally, we provided a written tutorial so partners may replicate the flood mapping for future flood events.

Anna Ballasiotes↗

NASA NTRS2023

Climate and Human Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Flood Risk in Southern Louisiana

Satellite observations of coastal Louisiana indicate an overall land loss over recent decades, which could be attributed to climate and human-induced factors, including sea level rise (SLR). Climate induced hydrological change (CHC) has impacted the way flood control structures are used, altering the spatiotemporal water distribution. Based on “what-if” scenarios, we determine relative impacts of SLR and CHC on increased flood risk over southern Louisiana and examine the role of water management, via flood control structures, in mitigating flood risk over the region. Our findings show that CHC has increased flood risk over the past 28 years. The number of affected people increases as extreme hydrological events become more exceptional. Water management reduces flood risk to urban areas and croplands, especially during exceptional hydrological events. For example, currently (i.e., 2016-2020 period), CHC-induced flooding puts an additional 73km2 of cropland under flood risk at least half of the time (median flood event) and 65km2 once a year (annual flood event), when compared to a past period (1993-1997). A ten- to twenty-fold increase relative to SLR-induced flooding. CHC also increases population vulnerability in southern Louisiana to flooding; additional 9900 residents currently live under flood risk at least half of the time, and that number increases to 27,400 for annual flood events. Residents vulnerable to SLR induced flooding is lower (6000 and 3300 residents, respectively). Conclusions are that CHC is a major factor that should be accounted for flood resilience and that water management interventions can mitigate risks to human life and activities.

Augusto Getirana↗

NASA NTRS2019

Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO)

The Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (STEReO) project aims to apply various NASA technologies, such as Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) services, onboard-vehicle autonomy, novel approaches to communications and connectivity, and remote/virtual collaboration interfaces to current-day emergency response efforts to natural disasters. Today's emergency response efforts are based on long-standing procedures that are manaul in nature, and could benefit from modernization. In particular, the use of UAS vehicles is limited, primarily due to concerns surrounding dangerous interactions between manned/unmanned operations. STEReO hopes to introduce data exchanges that improve shared situation awareness, reduce manual coordination procedures, enable scalable and high-density air operations, collectivley bringing a positive impact to the incident response. When successful, STEReO technologies will improve efficiency and timeliness of the response and recovery phases of a disaster, resulting in substantial reductions to community harm, and will also accelerate NASAâ€™s development of high-density resilient operations, benefitting other projects relying on increasing levels of autonomy and connectivity. The prepared material provides an overview of the STEReO project, for presentation at the 2019 Convergent Aeronautics Solution (CAS) Showcase event. The CAS showcase brings together all of the current CAS execution activities, highlighting NASA's high-risk investments in aeronautics research.

Mercer, Joey↗

NASA NTRS2025

HabSim: A Modular Coupled Virtual Testbed for Simulating ExtraTerrestrial Habitat Systems

Extraterrestrial habitats involve a tightly coupled combination of hardware, software, and humans while operating in an unforgiving environment that poses many risks, both anticipated and unanticipated. Traditional approaches with such systems of systems focus on reliability, robustness, and redundancy. These approaches seek to avoid failure rather than reduce overall risk. However, faults are inevitable, and understanding and managing the complex and emergent behavior and cascading events of such a complex system is critical. This study describes the development of HabSim, a computational simulation environment intended to support research to establish the know-how to design and operate resilient and autonomous SmartHabs. HabSim is a modular virtual testbed composed of many of the coupled dynamic systems expected in a typical SmartHab. A heterogeneous set of interconnected physics-based and phenomenological models is used to represent the essential functions of a SmartHab. HabSim further considers disruptions and models damage and repair of certain components. This paper discusses a) system and subsystem requirements of the deep space habitat included in the HabSim platform; b) architectural choices made in response to the requirements; c) technical considerations for developing, verifying, configuring, and executing HabSim; and d) illustrative sample results from a simulation of a representative disruption scenario.

Mohsen Azimi↗

NASA NTRS2019

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Arizona Water Resources Ii: Utilizing Aerial Imagery and Nasa Earth Observations to Assess Pinyon-Juniper Tree Mortality in Flagstaff, AZ

Pinyon-juniper woodlands (PJW) provide critical and resilient habitat for the local mammal and small bird species of Arizona's northern xeric environment. Drought in Arizona has been persistent for many decades, yet in 2021 PJW experienced a mass tree mortality event at the Wupatki National Monument (WNM) and in other areas across the American Southwest. Previously, researchers at the National Park Service (NPS) and the team from the NASA DEVELOP National Program attempted to quantify the extent of mortality in Northern Arizona between 2015 and 2021 using high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial photographs. This project aimed to improve the previous term’s methodology and expanded the comparison of the post-mortality event in 2021 to include tree cover assessments for 2017 and 2019. In this iteration, the team utilized NAIP imagery in conjunction with Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) to calculate the total difference in PJW mortality using an unsupervised classification model trained from multi-date Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) data for the study area. The research also assessed correlations between tree mortality and environmental factors using Western Land Data Assimilation System (WLDAS) modelled climate data. Average PJW mortality from 2015 to 2021 was 21.63% including 19.8% in WNM with the vast majority of dieback occurring between 2019 and 2021. The correlations were weak with the most correlated variables being bare soil evaporation (0.15), rainfall (0.14), groundwater storage (0.13), and wind speed (0.12), perhaps indicating drought as a likely driver of PJW mortality.

pinyon-juniper woodlands↗