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At least 73 records · Page 4

Characterization of Urbix Resources Natural Flake Graphite Material for Nuclear Applications (CRADA NFE-18-07340 Final Report)

Urbix Resources is a company specializing in graphite powder processing and purification. Urbix is looking to become the first domestic supplier of nuclear-grade graphite in the United States. This has led to a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) being established between the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Urbix Resources, with the goal of characterizing a purified graphite feedstock supplied by Urbix Resources. The resulting data will then be used to determine the viability of a large-scale nuclear graphite production and qualification campaign. These characterization methods have been performed on the as-received graphite feedstock, a heat-treated batch of the feedstock, a milled batch of the feedstock, and a nuclear-grade graphite powder historically used in fuel production. The data from the heat-treated and milled feedstock will determine how different processing methods affect the powder’s physical properties, whereas the data from the nuclear grade graphite will provide information about the characteristics of a graphite previously accepted for nuclear applications. All of these powders have been characterized individually and as part of a resin-graphite blend (herein referred to as matrix) that has been used in past fuel experiments. The results of these experiments show that the Urbix powder and nuclear-grade graphite powder display notably different properties from one another in many cases, but this discrepancy may have been the result of the typical particle size of each powder. This hypothesis is supported by tests conducted on the milled powder, which showed a closer resemblance in properties to the nuclear-grade graphite than the as-received powder. The method for pressing the graphite matrix also had a noticeable effect on the measured properties.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Site Selection for Field Testing of a Marine Hydrokinetic Turbine Platform to Serve as a Floating Unmanned Mobile Recharging Station for Aerial Drones

Abstract Expanding applications of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in coastal areas suggests a need for stations along or close to the coast where the UAV batteries can be easily recharged. A small-scale low flow marine current turbine in support of a floating autonomous recharge station for small UAVs has been designed and assembled at Florida Atlantic University and is being prepared for field testing. Surveys of identified test sites in the Intracoastal Waterways and at open ocean locations are being conducted to determine their suitability in meeting resource, system design and permitting requirements. A sensor platform has been developed for measuring local currents at the identified sites in support of resource characterization. Two out of the eight sites surveyed in the Intracoastal Waterways are found to meet the field-testing requirements for current resource, water depth, and sea bottom conditions. Planned field testing will include parametric characterization studies of the performance of the current turbine for a range of turbine blade configurations, current speeds, turbine wheel submergence levels, and test site location (channeled flow vs open ocean flow).

McKinney, Adriana Lynell↗

Parametrized process characterization with reduced resource requirements

Quantum process tomography (QPT) is a powerful tool to characterize quantum operations, but it requires considerable resources, making it impractical for more than two-qubit systems. This study proposes an alternative approach that requires significantly fewer resources for unitary process characterization with a built-in method for state preparation and measurement error mitigation. By measuring the quantum process as rotated through the X and Y axes on the Bloch sphere, we can acquire enough information to reconstruct the quantum process matrix χ and measure its fidelity. We test the algorithm's performance against standard QPT using simulated and physical experiments on several IBM quantum processors and compare the resulting process matrices. We demonstrate with numerical experiments that the method can improve gate fidelity via a noise reduction in the imaginary part of the process matrix, along with a stark decrease in the number of experiments needed to perform the characterization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Global wave energy resource classification system for regional energy planning and project development

Efforts to streamline and codify wave energy resource characterization and assessment for regional energy planning and wave energy converter (WEC) project development have motivated the recent development of resource classification systems. Given the unique interplay between WEC absorption and resource attributes, viz, available wave power frequency, directionality, and seasonality, various consensus resource classification metrics have been introduced. However, the main international standards body for the wave energy industry has not reached consensus on a wave energy resource classification system designed with clear goals to facilitate resource assessment, regional energy planning, project site selection, project feasibility studies, and selection of WEC concepts or archetypes that are most suitable for a given wave energy climate. In this work, a primary consideration of wave energy generation is the available energy that can be captured by WECs with different resonant frequency and directional bandwidths. Therefore, the proposed classification system considers combinations of three different wave power classifications: the total wave power, the frequency-constrained wave power, and the frequency-directionally constrained wave power. The dominant wave period bands containing the most wave power are sub-classification parameters that provide useful information for designing frequency and directionally constrained WECs. The bulk of the global wave energy resource is divided into just 22 resource classes representing distinct wave energy climates that could serve as a common language and reference framework for wave energy resource assessment if codified within international standards.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Twenty-Year Analysis of Winds in California for Offshore Wind Energy Production Using WRF v4.1.2

Offshore wind resource characterization in the United States relies heavily on simulated winds from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, given the lack of hub-height observations offshore. One such NWP data set used extensively by U.S. stakeholders is the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, a 7-year time-series data set produced in 2013 by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In this study, we present an update to that data set for offshore California that leverages recent advancements in NWP modeling capabilities and extends the period of record to a full 20 years. The data set predicts a significantly larger wind resource (0.25–1.75 m s-1 stronger), including in three Call Areas that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management is considering for commercial activity. We conduct a set of yearlong simulations to study factors that contribute to this increase in the modeled wind resource. The largest impact arises from a change in the planetary boundary layer parameterization from the Yonsei University scheme to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino scheme and their diverging wind profiles under stable stratification. Additionally, we conduct a refined wind resource assessment at the three Call Areas, characterizing distributions of wind speed, shear, veer, stability, frequency of wind droughts, and power production. We find that, depending on the attribute, the new data set can show substantial disagreement with the WIND Toolkit, thereby driving important changes in predicted power.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗

First Ever Field Pilot on Alaska's North Slope to Validate the Use of Polymer Floods for Heavy Oil EOR a.k.a Alaska North Slope Field Laboratory (ANSFL)

Alaska’s high viscosity oil resources that range between 20–30+ billion barrels represent about a third of known North Slope original oil in place (OOIP). These resources are primarily concentrated in the Schrader Bluff formation (also called West Sak on the Western North Slope) and Ugnu reservoirs and are categorized as “viscous oils” and “heavy oils” owing to their in-situ viscosities between 5–10,000 cP and up to a million+ cP respectively. The viscous oil deposits are relatively deeper (2,000 – 5,000 ft), whereas the heavy oils are somewhat shallower (2,000 – 4,000 ft). The typically shallow depths and the proximity to the continuous permafrost results in relatively lower formation temperatures and pressures, and consequently higher viscosities. The vertical depth vs. viscosity delineated in Paskvan et al. (2016) differentiates the viscous and heavy oils. As depicted in Paskvan et al. (2016), currently the main focus (referred to as “developing”) is on the viscous oils in the Schrader Bluff formation in the Milne Point Unit (MPU). Notwithstanding this Alaska North Slope (ANS) specific categorization, we use the industry adopted, all-inclusive term “heavy oil” for all high viscosity oils. Resource characterization and additional details can be found in topical publications of Paskvan et al. (2016) and Targac et al. (2005). Despite the vast resource base, the development pace, vis-à-vis the production of heavy oils has been very slow and limited due to multiple factors such as cost, logistics, challenging arctic environment, poor waterflood sweep efficiency due to mobility contrasts, and significantly high minimum miscibility pressures (MMP). Most importantly, typical or standard thermal methods that are commonplace elsewhere (Canada, California) are inapplicable due to the continuous permafrost. As a consequence, cumulative production of heavy and viscous oils is a little over 1% of OOIP slope wide and currently, there is hardly any production from Ugnu. However, on a broader level, these unfavorable factors are outweighed by the fact that (1) these resources, within the established infrastructure, are too large to ignore because of their strategic importance to the Nation and the State of Alaska and (2) Prudhoe Bay type diluent crude oil is still available for heavy oil transport through the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). Similarly, from a reservoir standpoint, the following factors also are important offsets: (1) favorable rock characteristics of Schrader Bluff; (2) the promise demonstrated by the initial scoping studies (Seright 2010, 2011) suggesting significant increase of heavy oil recovery using polymer flooding; (3) successful field implementation in Canada, China and elsewhere in the world, and (4) availability of the existing pairs of horizontal injector-producer in Schrader Bluff The foregoing was recognized as the best readily available opportunity for significant investment by the US Department of Energy and the field operator Hilcorp Alaska LLC to conduct the first ever field scale experiment to test the polymer flooding technology to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. With this primary goal in mind, the research team embarked on a ~4.5 years long project that focused on the field polymer pilot complemented by supporting laboratory and simulation studies. As documented in this final report, over the course of the project, many lessons have been learned and valuable field and supporting laboratory data has been collected, which also is complemented by numerical reservoir simulations. We have been able to establish the injectivity of polymer solution, evidence of significant reduction in the water cut of previously waterflooded pattern, effective propagation of a hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), benefits of low salinity water, provide practical guidance on handling of produced fluids containing breakthrough polymer, fit-for-purpose forecast-worthy history matched simulation model, polymer EOR benefit of 700-1000 bopd over waterflood, and most importantly a low polymer utilization factor of ~1.7 lb/stb. In summary this project is deemed as a scientific, technical and economic success, having met all objectives, fulfilled deliverables and within budget, providing impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field paving the way for even heavier viscosity oils in the Ugnu area, eventually extending the economic life of TAPS.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Lunar Polar In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) as a Stepping Stone for Human Exploration

A major emphasis of NASA is to extend and expand human exploration across the solar system. While specific destinations are still being discussed as to what comes first, it is imperative that NASA create new technologies and approaches that make space exploration affordable and sustainable. Critical to achieving affordable and sustainable exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) are the development of technologies and approaches for advanced robotics, power, propulsion, habitats, life support, and especially, space resource utilization systems. Space resources and how to use them, often called In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can have a tremendous beneficial impact on robotic and human exploration of the Moon, Mars, Phobos, and Near Earth Objects (NEOs), while at the same time helping to solve terrestrial challenges and enabling commercial space activities. The search for lunar resources, demonstration of extraterrestrial mining, and the utilization of resource-derived products, especially from polar volatiles, can be a stepping stone for subsequent human exploration missions to other destinations of interest due to the proximity of the Moon, complimentary environments and resources, and the demonstration of critical technologies, processes, and operations. ISRU and the Moon: There are four main areas of development interest with respect to finding, obtaining, extracting, and using space resources: Prospecting for resources, Production of mission critical consumables like propellants and life support gases, Civil engineering and construction, and Energy production, storage, and transfer. The search for potential resources and the production of mission critical consumables are the primary focus of current NASA technology and system development activities since they provide the greatest initial reduction in mission mass, cost, and risk. Because of the proximity of the Moon, understanding lunar resources and developing, demonstrating, and implementing lunar ISRU provides a near and early opportunity to perform the following that are applicable to other human exploration mission destinations: Identify and characterize resources, how they are distributed, and the material, location and environment in which they are found; Demonstrate concepts, technologies, and hardware that can reduce the cost and risk of human exploration beyond Earth orbit; Use the Moon for operation experience and mission validation for much longer missions that are farther from Earth Develop and evolve ISRU to support sustained, economical human presence beyond Earth's orbit, including promoting space commercialization As Table 1 depicts, the Moon provides environments and resources applicable to Mars and NEOs. Two lunar ISRU resource and product pathways that have notable synergism with NEO, Phobos/Demos, and Mars ISRU are oxygen/metal extraction from regolith, and water/volatile extraction from lunar polar materials. To minimize the risk of developing and incorporating ISRU into human missions, a phased implementation plan is recommended that starts with prospecting and demonstrating critical technologies on robotic and human missions, then performing pilot scale operations (in non-mission critical roles) to enhance exploration mission capabilities, leading to full utilization of space resources in mission critical roles. Which lunar ISRU pathway is followed will depend on the results of early resource prospecting/proof-ofconcept mission(s), and long-term human exploration plans.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

A Combined XRD/XRF Instrument for Lunar Resource Assessment

Robotic surface missions to the Moon should be capable of measuring mineral as well as chemical abundances in regolith samples. Although much is already known about the lunar regolith, our data are far from comprehensive. Most of the regolith samples returned to Earth for analysis had lost the upper surface, or it was intermixed with deeper regolith. This upper surface is the part of the regolith most recently exposed to the solar wind; as such it will be important to resource assessment. In addition, it may be far easier to mine and process the uppermost few centimeters of regolith over a broad area than to engage in deep excavation of a smaller area. The most direct means of analyzing the regolith surface will be by studies in situ. In addition, the analysis of the impact-origin regolith surfaces, the Fe-rich glasses of mare pyroclastic deposits, are of resource interest, but are inadequately known; none of the extensive surface-exposed pyroclastic deposits of the Moon have been systematically sampled, although we know something about such deposits from the Apollo 17 site. Because of the potential importance of pyroclastic deposits, methods to quantify glass as well as mineral abundances will be important to resource evaluation. Combined x ray diffraction (XRD) and x ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis will address many resource characterization problems on the Moon. XRF methods are valuable for obtaining full major-element abundances with high precision. Such data, collected in parallel with quantitative mineralogy, permit unambiguous determination of both mineral and chemical abundances where concentrations are high enough to be of resource grade. Collection of both XRD and XRF data from a single sample provides simultaneous chemical and mineralogic information. These data can be used to correlate quantitative chemistry and mineralogy as a set of simultaneous linear equations, the solution of which can lead to full characterization of the sample. The use of Rietveld methods for XRD data analysis can provide a powerful tool for quantitative mineralogy and for obtaining crystallographic data on complex minerals.

Vaniman, D. T.↗

Tools Assessing Performance

For the distributed wind industry, it can be challenging to accurately predict the performance and annual energy production of projects prior to their installation. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project aims to improve wind resource characterization, thereby reducing the uncertainty of project performance and financing costs, increasing consumer confidence, and lowering the levelized cost of distributed wind energy. A collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories, TAP will create a computational framework that provides the distributed wind community with access to newly developed wind resource data and modeling capabilities. These capabilities will allow users to perform timely and accurate performance assessments for distributed wind projects at locations across the United States.

wind, distributed, tools, performance↗

Wave climate and energy resources in the Mariana Islands from a 42-year high-resolution hindcast

We report a high-resolution wave hindcast from 1979 to 2020 was developed for Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, which are influenced by mesoscale and synoptic weather systems from the western Pacific Rim to the Central Pacific. The spectral wave modeling utilized structured global and unstructured regional grids with improved resolution in nearshore waters, where wave resources development is most feasible. The hindcast demonstrates its capability in capturing multi-modal seas through reproduction of bulk and partitioned wave parameters derived from altimetry and buoy measurements. The local wave climate is influenced by the year-round trade winds and tropical cyclones as well as seasonal monsoons, frontal systems, and mid-latitude high- and low-pressure systems. The strong intra-annual variation of the significant wave height and power flux reflects transitions between local and distant weather systems, which account for the diverse wave conditions comprised of short-period wind waves, intermediate-period seas, and long-period swells around the islands. Among the Pacific island regions, spectral partitioning is particularly important for describing the dominant wave components by period and direction with pertinent information conducive to energy resources characterization and coastal zone management in the Mariana Islands.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Retrospective on Recent DOE-Funded Studies Concerning the Extraction of Rare Earth Elements & Lithium from Geothermal Brines (Final Report)

Rare earth elements (REE) and lithium are non-toxic metals that are considered critical materials due to their use in electronics, magnets, batteries, and a wide variety of industrial processes important for the economy and military preparedness. Demand for REE and lithium is increasing and these critical materials are imported, so identifying and exploiting domestic sources of REE and lithium is a national priority. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) has been in the forefront of sponsoring research investigating the potential recovery of REE, lithium, and other critical minerals from geothermal brines. It has been proposed that the future of geothermal energy should include “hybrid systems” that combine electricity generation with other revenue-generating activities, such as recovery of valuable and critical minerals, including REE and lithium. Two recent GTO funding opportunities have focused on the recovery of REE and other valuable minerals from geothermal brines. The research supported by the GTO’s mineral recovery program is focused on three areas: resource characterization, technology for the extraction of REE, and technology for the extraction of lithium (Tables 1 and 2). This report is a retrospective study examining the outcome of GTO’s two recent mineral recovery programs (DE-FOA-0001016 in FY 2014 and DE-FOA-0001376 in FY 2016). In this report, the knowledge, technology, and techniques that were developed by researchers funded by GTO are summarized and discussed. Four projects were funded to assess the concentrations and amounts of REE found in geothermal brines and oil field produced waters. The GTO-funded studies compiled publically available data on REE concentrations from brines and produced water from all over the USA. In addition, new samples were collected and characterized from major geothermal and hydrocarbon basins in the Western USA. The studies examined the relationship between lithology and REE concentrations and developed models examining the influence of geology on REE concentrations in produced brines. It was determined that REE are frequently found at higher concentrations in oil field produced water than geothermal brines, but that some geothermal areas had significant REE resources. Significant reservoirs of REE were identified in the Western USA. In some cases, concentrations of REE were more than 1000 times the concentrations found in seawater. Collectively, these studies represent a comprehensive picture of REE resources associated with geothermal and hydrocarbon systems in the USA. The studies did not examine lithium resources, but in some cases, lithium concentration data was collected. Data from these studies are housed in the Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) and represent a significant information resource and it is recommended that these data be further analyzed in a future study. Eight projects were funded to develop new technology for REE extraction from geothermal fluids. These projects investigated sorption as an approach for removal and recovery of REE from geothermal brines. The projects investigated cutting-edge technology for selective sorption of ions from complex solutions, including the application of metal-organic frameworks and biosorbent proteins. The REE sorption studies tested different combinations of metal-binding ligands and solid supports. The most promising metal-binding ligands for REE included phosphonic acid, thiol, and carboxylic acid functional groups. Ligands were attached or incorporated into a wide variety of solid supports. In most cases, attachment was via covalent bonding to organic resins, polymers, or silica-based supports. Most of the REE projects were conducted at a low technology readiness level (TRL) and showed promise, but direct comparison between technologies was not possible based on the available information. It is recommended that testing and reporting be standardized to the extent possible to facilitate comparisons between technologies. Two projects were directed at novel lithium extraction technology. Both projects investigated the use of inorganic sorbents, including manganese oxides. One study also examined the use of metal- ion imprinted polymers as selective ion-exchange resins for the separation of lithium and manganese from brines. Both approaches showed promise for the selective extraction of lithium from brines, including potentially geothermal brines. Results from these GTO studies indicated that selective REE and lithium extraction is possible, but interference from co-occurring solutes, such as calcium, magnesium, or heavy metals, will interfere with process efficiency and negatively impact process economics. Techno-economic analysis conducted as part of the resource and technology studies suggest extraction of REE from geothermal brines is unlikely to be economically viable, especially since non-geothermal produced waters frequently have higher REE concentrations. It is recommended that benchmarks for techno-economic analysis be established to the extent possible for future studies, to facilitate direct comparison of various technologies. Based on the collective results of this program, it appears that hybrid geothermal power would benefit more from recovery of lithium and other metals, rather than REE. It is recommended that future studies be conducted at a higher- TRL and that sorbents be tested against actual geothermal fluid samples. Prior higher-TRL efforts to extract metals from geothermal brines should be further evaluated for lessons learned.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

San Juan Islands Tidal Energy Characterization

The San Juan Islands are an archipelago with multiple tidal channels that produce strong tidal currents that could be harnessed for electricity generation. At present, there is limited electrical generation on the islands, with power primarily provided by a subsea cable connection with the mainland. As part of the C-MIST program, NOAA's CO-OPS program collected ADCP data at 46 stations in the San Juan Islands and adjacent waterways, from April to August of 2017. PNNL has recently developed a 3-D tidal hydrodynamic model for tidal energy resource characterization and assessment in the Salish Sea (Yang et al. 2021). Several tidal channels in the San Juan Islands were identified as top hotspots for potential tidal energy extraction. However, due to the complex geometry and inter-connected waterways, tidal currents around San Juan Islands also exhibit strong spatial and temporal asymmetry. Therefore, it is important to analyze the NOAA ADCP data to define metrics relevant to tidal energy, and further refine PNNL's tidal hydrodynamic model to accurately simulate currents in small tidal channels and account for sharp bathymetry gradients. The outcome of this technical assistance will allow developers to identify the promising opportunities for tidal energy in the San Juan Islands.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hawai‘i National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC)

The Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Center (HINMREC) was established to facilitate the commercialization of wave energy converter (WEC) devices, and to accelerate development and testing of Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) technologies. Housed at the Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (HNEI) of the University of Hawaii (UH), this program started with execution of the contract between the US Department of Energy (DOE) and UH in March 2009, and activities ran through the end of the project in September 2019. The DOE tasked HINMREC with facilitating and accelerating the build-out of the Navy’s Wave Energy Test Site (WETS), the nation’s first grid-connected open water wave energy conversion test facility, located off Marine Corps Base Hawaii (MCBH) in Kaneohe, on the island of Oahu. WETS was expanded from an existing test berth at 30m water depth to include test berths at 60m and 80m water depths. In recognition of the high costs associated with at-sea testing and evaluation of WEC devices, it was deemed imperative that HINMREC seek ways to reduce costs to developers by providing key research support to these early-stage technologies. WETS and HINMREC’s support allowed development of wave energy technology by providing a testing infrastructure that allows technology developers to test, demonstrate and evaluate their WEC devices, and generate data in order to advance WEC designs toward commercial readiness. HINMREC’s roles have included support in the establishment of the full site, including of wave resource characterization and site survey, followed by the essential roles of independent WEC device power performance assessment and environmental monitoring in support of deployed pre-commercial WECs. This DOE-funded work transitioned effectively to continue Navy-funded tasks for OTEC development, and activities at WETS, now under Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) funding. A secondary objective in the establishment of HINMREC was to assist the private sector in moving OTEC systems beyond proof-of-concept to pre-commercialization, primarily focused on system and component engineering, and local and global investigations into the potential environmental impacts of OTEC systems. HINMREC was tasked with maintaining high-resolution models of ocean thermal resources and the potential sustainable power output of OTEC systems. Ongoing tests begun previously under Navy funding at the OTEC Heat Exchangers (HXs) Test Facility at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority (NELHA), in Kona on Hawaii Island, have been continued to identify cost-effective aluminum alloys for use in OTEC systems operating in the corrosive marine environment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Quantifying sensitivity in numerical weather prediction-modeled offshore wind speeds through an ensemble modeling approach

A decade of research has shown that numerical weather prediction (NWP)-modeled wind speeds can be highly sensitive to the inputs and setups within the NWP model. For wind resource characterization applications, this sensitivity is often addressed by constructing a range of setups and selecting the one that best validates against observations. However, this approach is not possible in areas that lack high-quality hub height observations, especially offshore wind areas. In such cases, techniques to quantify and disseminate confidence in NWP-modeled wind speeds in the absence of observations are needed. We address this need in the present study and propose best practices for quantifying the spread in NWP-modeled wind speeds. We implement an ensemble approach in which we consider 24 different setups to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We construct the ensemble by considering variations in WRF version, WRF namelist, atmospheric forcing, and sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Our analysis finds that the standard deviation produces more consistent estimates compared to the interquartile range and tends to be the more conservative estimator for ensemble variability. We further find that model spread increases closer to the surface and on shorter time scales. In conclusion, we explore methods to attribute total ensemble variability to the different ensemble components (e.g., atmospheric forcing and SST product) and find that contributions by components also vary depending on time scale. We anticipate that the methods and results presented in this paper will provide a reasonable foundation for further research into ensemble-based wind resource data sets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integrated Mid-Continent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub Project Phase II (Final Summary Report)

The Phase II Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-HUB) is part of the Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) established by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). CarbonSAFE is phased to support the development of commercial-scale (50 million metric tonnes [Mt] over a 30-year period) carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in the United States. The IMSCS-HUB study area comprises carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska (the source corridor), and CO 2 sinks in Kansas and Nebraska (the storage corridor), representing the first large-scale project for the Midcontinent region. The stacked storage corridor is characterized by alternating sequences of deep saline formations, oil-bearing reservoirs, shale, and evaporite units that are conducive to vertically stacked CO 2 injection for geologic storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Three sites within the IMSCS-HUB stacked storage corridor were evaluated in Phase II for commercial CCUS feasibility: one in southwest-central Nebraska, Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), a second in southwestern Nebraska near Madrid (Madrid), and a third in southwestern Kansas, the Patterson Site (composed of the Patterson, Heinitz, Hartland, and Oslo fields). In Phase II, the team assessed the feasibility of storage complexes at the potential storage sites in Nebraska and Kansas to support a commercial-scale storage hub that integrates proven CO 2 capture technology and transport from nearby ethanol sources. Building on lessons learned from the DOE-NETL Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs), the Project Team has identified a clear strategy to meet DOE’s 2025 objective of commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation by developing a CO 2 market and infrastructure that relies on multiple ethanol-based CO 2 sources in the short term and the incorporation of multiple coal-fired power plant CO 2 sources when commercial capture is economically viable. The team also leveraged the updated 45Q tax credit to develop capture and transport infrastructure. Commercial-scale CCUS is feasible at two candidate storage sites studied, the Madrid, Nebraska Site and the Patterson Site in Kearny County, Kansas. The Sleepy Hollow Field in Nebraska was found to be an attractive candidate for stacked storage with CO 2 -EOR (Battelle 2020e). Outreach efforts facilitated engagement from industry, government, and research sectors (Battelle and GPI, 2020) and an outreach plan for future phases of the project was developed to address issues that are of concern in the IMSCS-HUB project area (Battelle, 2020f). All components of a CCUS project were determined to be feasible in the IMSCS-HUB region and Risk Mitigation Plan was developed and includes strategies to mitigate risks associated with each project component (Battelle, 2020j). A roadmap was developed to obtain the required UIC permits for an integrated CCUS project (Battelle, 2020k). The regional storage resource characterization demonstrated significant opportunity for commercial-scale projects in the IMSCS-HUB storage corridor with 577.4 Mt of stacked CO 2 storage capacity and the potential to produce 181.9 MMbbls of oil via EOR across 17 individual storage areas (Battelle and ARI, 2020). The pipeline assessment study found viable pipeline routes that connected 45Q-eligible ethanol plants, coal fired power plants, and other sources in the IMSCS-HUB corridor. The comprehensive results of subsurface characterization, modeling efforts, outreach assessment, and regulatory analysis from were integrated to develop a Detailed Commercial Development Plan for the IMSCS-HUB (Battelle, 2020n). Commercialization efforts will involve obtaining Class VI UIC permits, establishing and finalizing the pipeline route, and evaluating capture projects at participating CO 2 sources. Phases I and II of the IMSCS-HUB CarbonSAFE provide a strong foundation for safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively characterizing and permitting commercial-scale project sites in the region. The plan for implementation of commercial-scale CCUS projects in the IMSCS-HUB is aligned with the objectives of CarbonSAFE Phase III: Site Characterization and CO 2 Capture Assessment.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Techno-economic feasibility of borehole thermal energy storage system connected to geothermal heat pumps for seasonal heating load of two buildings in Fairbanks, Alaska

Borehole thermal energy storage (BTES) is an effective solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads in cold regions. This study evaluated the long-term feasibility of a BTES system in the Fairbanks area, Alaska, through building energy modeling, resource characterization, and numerical modeling. The system was designed to store waste heat from a nearby coal power plant during summer and provide thermal energy during winter to geothermal heat pumps supplying heating loads in two buildings. Heating load profiles were modeled for the buildings using EnergyPlus, and the results indicated the annual heating load was 5.6 times greater than the cooling load. 40 borehole heat exchangers were pre-designed approximately 100 m away from the two buildings in terms of land availability and regulatorily optimized depth. The 20-year performance of the designed BTES system under two operational scenarios—one with a 5-year preheating period and one without—was numerically modeled using subsurface temperature and properties characterized through the literature review and thermal response tests. Both scenarios demonstrated that the BTES has the capacity to fully cover the heating loads in the two buildings throughout the 20-year lifetime. Production temperatures at central wells were 33 % higher on average than at outer wells in both scenarios. The 5-year preheating period increased subsurface and extraction temperatures, and correspondingly annual average and total thermal energy production was higher for 8 years than in the scenario without the preheating period. These results highlight the long-term reliability and sustainability of the BTES system in meeting heating demands over its lifetime, with the preheating period offering potential performance improvements. Implementing the BTES system in cold regions with high heating demand, such as Fairbanks, Alaska, could provide a long-term, sustainable energy solution for managing imbalanced heating and cooling loads.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Permeability Hysteresis From Microchannels Opening During Dissolution/Reprecipitation Cycle

Abstract Permeability is a critical parameter for geological resources characterization. Its evolution with respect to porosity is particularly interesting and many research initiatives focus on deriving such relationships, to understand some hydraulic impacts of microstructure alteration. Permeability evolution from chemical reactions, for instance, can become complex as flow channels may open during rock dissolution. In this contribution, we show that this phenomenon can lead to irregular porosity‐permeability curves and permeability hysteresis after reprecipitation. Current approaches describing permeability as a simple function of porosity can therefore not capture this behavior, and we advocate instead the use of dynamic modeling for such scenarios. We demonstrate our approach by modeling a dissolution/precipitation cycle for a unit cell pore channel and quantify the process at larger scale on three different rock samples, whose microstructures are reconstructed from segmented micro‐Computerised Tomography scans.

Lesueur, Martin↗