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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Impact of Varying Dark Energy on Future Large-Scale Structure Studies

The cosmos withholds multiple mysteries such as dark forms of matter and energy that are yet beyond human comprehension. In the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is thought to be responsible for the late accelerated expansion of the Universe. However, recent results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest the possibility of evolving dark energy, which warrants further exploration. Future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map the large-scale structure (LSS) with unprecedented precision, giving us valuable statistical information about the cosmos. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential impact of an evolving dark energy scenario on cosmological parameters constrained by LSS probes, as will be mapped by the LSST. For this, we examine the power spectra of lens galaxies, source galaxies, and cross-power spectra between lens galaxies and source galaxies. The combination of these statistics is commonly referred to as '3 $\times$ 2 points'. For this investigation, we created a set of simulations resembling LSST data and used them to perform cosmological parameter inference in two scenarios: one in which the simulated data is based on the fiducial model and another on evolving dark energy. We then examined the degeneracy between the cosmological parameters and checked for potential shifts in the parametric space when the data contains dynamical dark energy but the modeling assumes $\Lambda$CDM. Our findings indicate that mismodeling the dark energy equation of state can significantly impact parameter inference, particularly affecting the total matter density, $\Omega_m$, and the growth of structures, as represented by the $S_8$ parameter. These results highlight the importance of further exploring extensions of the $\Lambda$CDM model in future LSS studies.

Yaman Acharya, A.↗

First principles calculations in support of Pu aging: calculating the effects of lattice imperfections on thermodynamics

Plutonium (Pu) has, in theory, well defined crystal structures: its atoms are arranged in regular spatial patterns. But Pu is radioactive, and as its nuclei decay those regular spatial patterns are interrupted. The interruptions are lattice imperfections, which are known to affect how materials respond to their environment. To adequately model Pu, we need to know which lattice imperfections are present, how they interact with each other, and how they affect the material’s response to its environment. The work presented here aims to use density functional theory (DFT) calculations to begin to answer the latter, in particular, how individual lattice imperfections affect measurable effects including thermal expansion (the change in volume in response to a change in temperature), heat capacity (the amount of thermal energy needed to change a material’s temperature), and elastic moduli (a material’s resistance to applied stresses). Pu poses many computational challenges. The $\textit{f}$ electrons require special attention. Of all the elements, Pu has the largest number of electrons that must be included in the calculations. Thermal effects require calculating the phonons (the lattice vibrations), which for systems containing lattice imperfections demand large, complex computational cells - but computational resources limit the size and complexity. With careful restructuring of how the calculations are performed, all these challenges have been met to enable calculations that provide insight into how lattice imperfections affect Pu’s response to its environment. Reported here are the computational challenges and the advances developed to meet them, along with the first results showing the strong effect that one prototype lattice imperfection (an interstitial Pu atom in a delta-phase Pu lattice) has on Pu’s response to its environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

A constitutive model for glass–ceramic materials

Glass–ceramics have received recent attention for use in glass–ceramic to metal hermetic seals. Due to their heterogeneous microstructure, these materials exhibit a number of advantageous responses over conventional glass based seals. Key amongst them is the possibility of a controllable thermal strain response and apparent coefficient of thermal expansion which may be used to minimize thermally induced residual stresses for aforementioned seals. Furthermore, these behaviors result from an inorganic glass matrix and variety of crystalline ceramic phases including silica polymorph(s) that may undergo reversible solid-to-solid transformations with associated inelastic strain. Correspondingly, these materials exhibit complex thermomechanical responses associated with multiple inelastic mechanisms (viscoelasticity and phase transformation). While modeling these behaviors is essential for developing and analyzing the corresponding applications, no such model exists. Therefore, in this work a three-dimensional continuum constitutive model for glass–ceramic materials combining these various inelastic mechanisms is developed via an internal state variable approach. A corresponding fully implicit three dimensional numerical formulation is also proposed and implemented. The model is used to simulate existing experiments and validate the proposed formalism. As an example, the simple seal problem of a glass–ceramic seal inside a concentric metal shell is explored. Finally, the impact of the cooling rates, viscoelastic shift factors, and inelastic strain on final residual stress state are all investigated and the differing contributions highlighted.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Temporal dynamics of the multi-omic response to endurance exercise training

Regular exercise promotes whole-body health and prevents disease, but the underlying molecular mechanisms are incompletely understood. Here, the Molecular Transducers of Physical Activity Consortium profiled the temporal transcriptome, proteome, metabolome, lipidome, phosphoproteome, acetylproteome, ubiquitylproteome, epigenome and immunome in whole blood, plasma and 18 solid tissues in male and female Rattus norvegicus over eight weeks of endurance exercise training. The resulting data compendium encompasses 9,466 assays across 19 tissues, 25 molecular platforms and 4 training time points. Thousands of shared and tissue-specific molecular alterations were identified, with sex differences found in multiple tissues. Temporal multi-omic and multi-tissue analyses revealed expansive biological insights into the adaptive responses to endurance training, including widespread regulation of immune, metabolic, stress response and mitochondrial pathways. Many changes were relevant to human health, including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, inflammatory bowel disease, cardiovascular health and tissue injury and recovery. The data and analyses presented in this study will serve as valuable resources for understanding and exploring the multi-tissue molecular effects of endurance training and are provided in a public repository (https://motrpac-data.org/).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Physiological and metabolic responses of Zymomonas mobilis to lignocellulosic hydrolysate

Zymomonas mobilis is a promising biocatalyst for the sustainable conversion of lignocellulosic sugars into biofuels and bioproducts, yet its response to lignocellulosic hydrolysates remains poorly understood. Here, we investigate the physiological response of Z. mobilis to ammonia fiber expansion (AFEX)-pretreated switchgrass hydrolysate using a systems-level approach integrating LC–MS/MS-based lipidomics and shotgun proteomics. Growth on hydrolysate induced substantial shifts in fatty acid and membrane phospholipid composition, alongside broad proteomic remodeling. Notably, Z. mobilis exhibited a stress response characterized by the upregulation of heat shock proteins and efflux transporters and the downregulation of cell motility proteins. Unexpectedly, hydrolysate exposure also led to a robust upregulation of the Entner–Doudoroff pathway, the ethanol fermentation pathway, and other central carbon metabolism enzymes, indicating a substantial cellular investment potentially driven by additional nutrient availability in hydrolysate. These findings provide new insights into the metabolic adaptations of Z. mobilis to lignocellulosic hydrolysates, informing strategies to enhance its biofuel production capabilities.

Zymomonas mobilis↗

Shrubs Strongly Influence Snow Properties in Two Subarctic Watersheds

Understanding changes in snow distribution in permafrost ecosystems is fundamental to predicting their response to future climate change. The expansion of tall shrubs into tundra ecosystems can trap snow and insulate permafrost ecosystems during the winter, but the overall insulation effect is dependent upon many ecosystem properties. To study shrub–snow–ground interactions, small temperature sensors were deployed at two research sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. Snow temperatures were used to extrapolate multiple metrics, including freezing n-factors, the snow insulation effect, snow cover duration, and the length of the snowmelt period. Statistical and spatial analysis showed that shrub patches were a dominant control on all snow metrics. Within shrub patches, average ground temperatures were 2.1°C warmer, snow persisted 50 days longer, snow insulation was double, and a longer, later spring snowmelt period occurred compared to nonshrubby areas. Site-level differences contributed relatively little to variation in snow metrics, indicating that shrub presence is an overarching driver of snow–ground interactions at the locations examined. Shrub expansion, which is anticipated under climate change, will strongly impact future permafrost distribution and Arctic energy, water, and carbon cycles through snow–shrub–ground feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Chemical compatibility of hollow ceramic cenospheres as thermal insulation for high-temperature thermal energy storage applications with molten nitrate salt

An effective insulation material that is both thermally and chemically stable in molten salts could transform the design of molten-salt-based thermal energy storage (TES) tanks. Most current molten salt TES tanks hold the metallic tank structure in direct contact with hot salt inventory, a design which leads to thermal expansion of the tank and triggers stresses that can lead to thermomechanical failures. With an internal insulation to lower the temperature at the tank structure, the extent of thermal expansion can be reduced, thereby reducing expansion-induced stresses and allowing for consideration of lower-cost tank structure materials. Conventional insulation materials are either 1) too porous and allow molten salts to permeate into the matrix, which significantly increases the thermal conductivity or 2) too dense and have a thermal conductivity that cannot provide sufficient thermal insulation. This paper presents an alternative thermal insulation concept using cenospheres which have an alumino-silicate structure. The cost analysis suggests that the low-density cenospheres can be one of the cheapest materials to provide cost-effective thermal insulation. The chemical compatibility of cenospheres is investigated in molten 60 wt% NaNO3/40 wt% KNO3 salt which is close to industrial-grade Solar Salt. This paper shows that diffusion of the sodium and potassium cations from the salt into the cenospheres occurs based on weight analysis, energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The cation diffusion breaks the bridging oxygen bonds and causes volume expansion of the microstructure which is responsible for the failure of the cenosphere particles. The chemical composition of the cenospheres is found to affect their compatibility with molten nitrate salt. A cenosphere product with low iron content showed the best compatibility with an average survival rate of 77.9% +/- 9.8% after 7 days of immersion in the molten nitrate salt. While even the low-iron cenospheres appear to require protection from direct molten salt contact, their slow degradation rate, closed-cell porosity, and low cost hold potential for effective use as internal tank insulation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The dynamical tides of spinning Newtonian stars

ABSTRACT We carefully develop the framework required to model the dynamical tidal response of a spinning neutron star in an inspiralling binary system, in the context of Newtonian gravity, making sure to include all relevant details and connections to the existing literature. The tidal perturbation is decomposed in terms of the normal oscillation modes, used to derive an expression for the effective Love number which is valid for any rotation rate. In contrast to previous work on the problem, our analysis highlights subtle issues relating to the orthogonality condition required for the mode-sum representation of the dynamical tide and shows how the prograde and retrograde modes combine to provide the overall tidal response. Utilizing a slow-rotation expansion, we show that the dynamical tide (the effective Love number) is corrected at first order in rotation, whereas in the case of the static tide (the static Love number) the rotational corrections do not enter until second order.

Pnigouras, P. (ORCID:0000000318959431)↗

Giant Negative Linear Compressibility in Orthorhombic Copper Cyanide

Most reported negative linear compressibility (NLC) materials exhibit either a small NLC over a large pressure range or a high NLC over a very small pressure range. Here, we report the remarkable discovery of giant NLC in the low-temperature form of CuCN (LT-CuCN) over an unusually large pressure range. High- pressure XRD studies on LT-CuCN observed the NLC of –20.5 TPa –1 along the a axis at zero pressure, and the ambient orthorhombic phase remained stable up to 9.8 GPa. Pressure- and temperature-dependent Raman studies identified the phonon vibrations responsible for NLC and negative thermal expansion (NTE).

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Control-Oriented Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Battery management systems (BMSs), which monitor and optimize performance while ensuring safety, require control-oriented models, i.e., models tailored to the design and implementation of estimation and control algorithms. Physics-based electrochemical models describe detailed battery phenomena, but are too computationally intensive for use in estimation and control applications. Single particle models (SPMs), which retain some of the physics of electrochemical models, are often used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient; however, they are only valid over very low frequency ranges and C-rates. Empirical equivalent circuit models (ECMs) are also used for control-oriented battery modeling since they are computationally efficient and can describe battery behavior over wide frequency ranges; however, they provide no physical understanding of the battery and, therefore, have limited applicability. Further, fractional order terms (e.g., Warburg impedances) are often employed, making the models unwieldy for use in the time domain. This work provides a control-oriented battery model that combines the benefits of SPM and ECM models, while overcoming their limitations. The proposed model incorporates some of the battery physics found in electrochemical models, can easily be used in both the time and frequency domains, and describes battery behavior over its entire frequency range. A linearized single particle model, which incorporates key electrochemical parameters, is used for modeling battery physics at very low frequencies. For low frequencies, integer-order linear systems are used to approximate diffusion physics described by Warburg impedances, and high frequency behavior is modeled by the double layer capacitance effect. The proposed battery model is more computationally efficient than full electrochemical models since it does not require the solution of PDEs, is accurate for a wider frequency range than the SPM considered in this paper, and does not suffer from the unwieldiness and limited applicability of empirical ECMs. Finally, the model is validated in the time and frequency domains via a comparison to pseudo-two-dimensional (P2D) model simulations and experimental data.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Probing Hydrogen-Bond Anharmonicity in Cocrystals with Colossal Thermal Expansion

Organic cocrystals with sizable anisotropic thermal expansion (TE) are attractive building blocks for thermally responsive soft actuators. Such materials often display intermolecular H-bonding, whose thermal strength fluctuations are frequently overlooked if displacements and/or conformational changes are visible during TE. In this work, we employed variable-temperature single-crystal synchrotron diffraction to investigate the linear expansion coefficients of two organic cocrystals, 1 and 2, which exhibit colossal thermal expansivity exceeding 140 MK –1 . Despite such pronounced TE, solid-state 2 H and 13 C NMR experiments show no evidence of fast internal reorientations or large-amplitude molecular displacement during expansion. Although nondirectional π–π stacking dominates the colossal TE, our results indicate that hydrogen bonds play a non-negligible role in the anisotropic response. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal a temperature-dependent broadening of H-bond length distributions, which arises from the increased thermal sampling of an anharmonic potential energy surface. Our data support an expansion mechanism based on cooperativity in π-π interactions, accompanied by thermal softening and fluctuation-driven stretching of directional hydrogen bonds in these molecular solids. This mechanism underscores the significance of directional interactions in organic cocrystals, which is a key factor in the design of organic thermoresponsive crystalline materials.

Hernández-Morales, Ernesto A. [Univ. Nacional Auto↗

Predicting 3D Motions from Single-Camera Optical Test Data

In a typical optical test, a stereo camera pair is required to measure the three-dimensional motion of a test article; one camera typically only measures motions in the image plane of the camera, and measurements in the out-of-plane direction are missing. Finite element expansion techniques provide a path to estimate responses from a test at unmeasured degrees of freedom. Treating the case of a single camera as a measurement with unmeasured degrees of freedom, a finite element model is used to expand to the missing third dimension of the image data, allowing a full-field, three-dimensional measurement to be obtained from a set of images from a single camera. The key to this technique relies on the mapping of finite element deformations to image deformations, creating a set of mode shape images that are used to filter the response in the image into modal responses. These modal responses are then applied to the finite element model to estimate physical responses at all finite element model degrees of freedom. The mapping from finite element model to image is achieved using synthetic images produced by a rendering software. Finally, the technique is applied first to a synthetic deformation image, and then is validated using an experimental set of images.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Abstract Arctic shrub expansion alters carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes but remains challenging to predict due to unclear underlying controls. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (bioclimate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, while omitting shrub demographic processes and non-stationary response to changing climate. Here, we use high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984–2014, but can only be explained by considering seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted based on increasing environmental suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents shrub expansion pattern and its associated carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗