Results for “Risk Assessment” — Page 4

NASA NTRS2019

Ground Risk Assessment Service Provider (GRASP) Development Effort as a Supplemental Data Service Provider (SDSP) for Urban Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations

NASA’s Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) project aims to enable the integration of new aviation paradigms such as Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) while providing the necessary infrastructure for future concepts such as On-Demand Mobility (ODM) and Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations in the National Airspace System (NAS). In order to do so, the UTM project has developed an architecture to allow communication among UAS operators, UAS Service Suppliers (USS), Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSP), and the public. As part of this framework, the Supplemental Data Service Providers (SDSP) are envisioned as model and/or data based services that disseminate essential or enhanced information to ensure safe operations within low-altitude airspace. These services include terrain and obstacle data, specialized weather data, surveillance, constraint information, risk monitoring, etc. This paper highlights the development efforts of a non-participant casualty risk assessment SDSP called Ground Risk Assessment Service Provider (GRASP) which assists operators with preflight planning. GRASP is based on the previously introduced UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) and allows UAS operators to simulate and visualize potential non-participant casualty risks associated with their proposed flight. The risk assessment capability also allows operators to revise their flight plans if the casualty risks are determined to be above acceptable thresholds. GRASP is configured to account for future improvements including servicing airborne aircraft as part of NASA’s System-Wide Safety (SWS) project.

Ancel, Ersin↗

NASA NTRS2017

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

Asteroid Impact Risk↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Integrated Approach to Risk Assessment for Concurrent Design

This paper describes an approach to risk assessment and analysis suited to the early phase, concurrent design of a space mission. The approach integrates an agile, multi-user risk collection tool, a more in-depth risk analysis tool, and repositories of risk information. A JPL developed tool, named RAP, is used for collecting expert opinions about risk from designers involved in the concurrent design of a space mission. Another in-house developed risk assessment tool, named DDP, is used for the analysis.

defect detection and prevention (DDP)↗

NASA NTRS2014

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): an Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of

Ling, Lisa↗

NASA NTRS2006

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

Lawrence, Scott L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

Graber, Robert R.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

NASA NTRS1975

Design definition study of a NASA/Navy lift/cruise fan technology V/STOL airplane: Risk assessment addendum to the final report

An assessment of risk, in terms of delivery delays, cost overrun, and performance achievement, associated with the V/STOL technology airplane is presented. The risk is discussed in terms of weight, structure, aerodynamics, propulsion, mechanical drive, and flight controls. The analysis ensures that risks associated with the design and development of the airplane will be eliminated in the course of the program and a useful technology airplane that meets the predicted cost, schedule, and performance can be produced.

Zabinsky, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Engine non-containment: UK risk assessment methods

More realistic guideline data must be developed for use in aircraft design in order to comply with recent changes in British civil airworthiness requirements. Unrealistically pessimistic results were obtained when the methodology developed during the Concorde SST certification program was extended to assess catastrophic risks resulting from uncontained engine rotors.

Wallin, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of Failure and Risk Assessment of Propulsion Structural Components

Due to increasing need to account for the uncertainties in material properties, loading conditions, or geometries, a methodology was developed to determine structural reliability and the assess the risk associated with it. The methodology consists of a probabilistic structural analysis by a probabilistic finite element computer code Nonlinear Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) and a generic probabilistic material properties model. The methodology is versatile and is equally applicable to high and cryogenic temperature structures. Results obtained demonstrate that the whole issue of structural reliability and risk can be formally evaluated using the methodology developed which is inclusive of uncertainties in material properties, structural parameters and loading conditions. The methodology is described in some detail with illustrative examples.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Case Studies in NASA High-Technology Risk Assessment and Management

This study discusses the approach of NASA managers in the assessment of risk in three critical decisions: the Apollo 8 decision to orbit the Moon in 1968, the servicing of the Hubble Space Telescope in 1993, and the privitization of the Space Shuttle in the latter 1990s.

Lambright, W. Henry↗

NASA NTRS2006

Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Hill, Monika C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Strategic Risk Assessment

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Derleth, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2015

Injury Risk Assessment of Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) Phase VI and Series 4000 Gloves During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Hand Manipulation Tasks

Functional Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) with high precision gloves are essential for the success of Extravehicular Activity (EVA). Previous research done at NASA has shown that total strength capabilities and performance are reduced when wearing a pressurized EMU. The goal of this project was to characterize the human-space suit glove interaction and assess the risk of injury during common EVA hand manipulation tasks, including pushing, pinching and gripping objects. A custom third generation sensor garment was designed to incorporate a combination of sensors, including force sensitive resistors, strain gauge sensors, and shear force sensors. The combination of sensors was used to measure the forces acting on the finger nails, finger pads, finger tips, as well as the knuckle joints. In addition to measuring the forces, data was collected on the temperature, humidity, skin conductance, and blood perfusion of the hands. Testing compared both the Phase VI and Series 4000 glove against an ungloved condition. The ungloved test was performed wearing the sensor garment only. The project outcomes identified critical landmarks that experienced higher workloads and are more likely to suffer injuries. These critical landmarks varied as a function of space suit glove and task performed. The results showed that less forces were acting on the hands while wearing the Phase VI glove as compared to wearing the Series 4000 glove. Based on our findings, the engineering division can utilize these methods for optimizing the current space suit glove and designing next generation gloves to prevent injuries and optimize hand mobility and comfort.

Kilby, Melissa↗