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NASA NTRS2011

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

Amer, Tahani R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Meningitis and Climate: From Science to Practice

Meningococcal meningitis is a climate sensitive infectious disease. The regional extent of the Meningitis Belt in Africa, where the majority of epidemics occur, was originally defined by Lapeysonnie in the 1960s. A combination of climatic and environmental conditions and biological and social factors have been associated to the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics observed since the disease first emerged in West Africa over a century ago. However, there is still a lack of knowledge and data that would allow disentangling the relative effects of the diverse risk factors upon epidemics. The Meningitis Environmental Risk Information Technologies Initiative (MERIT), a collaborative research-to-practice consortium, seeks to inform national and regional prevention and control strategies across the African Meningitis Belt through the provision of new data and tools that better determine risk factors. In particular MERIT seeks to consolidate a body of knowledge that provides evidence of the contribution of climatic and environmental factors to seasonal and year-to-year variations in meningococcal meningitis incidence at both district and national scales. Here we review recent research and practice seeking to provide useful information for the epidemic response strategy of National Ministries of Health in the Meningitis Belt of Africa. In particular the research and derived tools described in this paper have focused at "getting science into policy and practice" by engaging with practitioner communities under the umbrella of MERIT to ensure the relevance of their work to operational decision-making. We limit our focus to that of reactive vaccination for meningococcal meningitis. Important but external to our discussion is the development and implementation of the new conjugate vaccine, which specifically targets meningococcus A

Mineral dust↗

NASA NTRS2009

Metabolic Cost of Experimental Exercises

Although the type and duration of activity during decompression was well documented, the metabolic cost of 1665 subject-exposures with 8 activity profiles from 17 altitude decompression sickness (DCS) protocols at Brooks City-Base, TX from 1983-2005 was not determined. Female and male human volunteers (30 planned, 4 completed) performed activity profiles matching those 8 activity profiles at ground level with continuous monitoring of metabolic cost. A Cosmed K4b2 Cardio Pulmonary Exercise Testing device was used to measure oxygen uptake (VO2) during the profiles. The results show levels of metabolic cost to the females for the profiles tested varied from 4.3 to 25.5 ml/kg/min and from 3.0 to 12.0 ml/kg/min to the males. The increase in VO2 from seated rest to the most strenuous of the 8 activity profiles was 3.6-fold for the females and 2.8-fold for the males. These preliminary data on 4 subjects indicate close agreement of oxygen uptake for activity performed during many subject-exposures as published earlier. The relatively low average oxygen uptake required to perform the most strenuous activity may imply the need for adjustment of modeling efforts using metabolic cost as a risk factor. Better definition of metabolic cost during exposure to altitude, a critical factor in DCS risk, may allow refinement of DCS prediction models.

Webb, James T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Meaningful Work as a Resilience Countermeasure in Extreme Environments

Evaluate risk factors, biomarkers, and countermeasures for adaptation and resilience in ICE environments. Identify how meaningful work influences the relationship between risk factors, the valence and social process domains, and operational and performance outcomes. Develop an operationally acceptable and valid measure of meaningful work in ICE. Examine meaningful work as a countermeasure.

Lauren Blackwell Landon↗

NASA NTRS2017

Prospective Architectures for Onboard vs Cloud-Based Decision Making for Unmanned Aerial Systems

This paper investigates propsective architectures for decision-making in unmanned aerial systems. When these unmanned vehicles operate in urban environments, there are several sources of uncertainty that affect their behavior, and decision-making algorithms need to be robust to account for these different sources of uncertainty. It is important to account for several risk-factors that affect the flight of these unmanned systems, and facilitate decision-making by taking into consideration these various risk-factors. In addition, there are several technical challenges related to autonomous flight of unmanned aerial systems; these challenges include sensing, obstacle detection, path planning and navigation, trajectory generation and selection, etc. Many of these activities require significant computational power and in many situations, all of these activities need to be performed in real-time. In order to efficiently integrate these activities, it is important to develop a systematic architecture that can facilitate real-time decision-making. Four prospective architectures are discussed in this paper; on one end of the spectrum, the first architecture considers all activities/computations being performed onboard the vehicle whereas on the other end of the spectrum, the fourth and final architecture considers all activities/computations being performed in the cloud, using a new service known as Prognostics as a Service that is being developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The four different architectures are compared, their advantages and disadvantages are explained and conclusions are presented.

Software engineering↗

NASA NTRS1997

Anterior segment sparing to reduce charged particle radiotherapy complications in uveal melanoma

PURPOSE: The purpose of this investigation is to delineate the risk factors in the development of neovascular glaucoma (NVG) after helium-ion irradiation of uveal melanoma patients and to propose treatment technique that may reduce this risk. METHODS AND MATERIALS: 347 uveal melanoma patients were treated with helium-ions using a single-port treatment technique. Using univariate and multivariate statistics, the NVG complication rate was analyzed according to the percent of anterior chamber in the radiation field, tumor size, tumor location, sex, age, dose, and other risk factors. Several University of California San Francisco-Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) patients in each size category (medium, large, and extralarge) were retrospectively replanned using two ports instead of a single port. By using appropriate polar and azimuthal gaze angles or by treating patients with two ports, the maximum dose to the anterior segment of the eye can often be reduced. Although a larger volume of anterior chamber may receive a lower dose by using two ports than a single port treatment. We hypothesize that this could reduce the level of complications that result from the irradiation of the anterior chamber of the eye. Dose-volume histograms were calculated for the lens, and compared for the single and two-port techniques. RESULTS: NVG developed in 121 (35%) patients. The risk of NVG peaked between 1 and 2.5 years posttreatment. By univariate and multivariate analysis, the percent of lens in the field was strongly correlated with the development of NVG. Other contributing factors were tumor height, history of diabetes, and vitreous hemorrhage. Dose-volume histogram analysis of single-port vs. two-port techniques demonstrate that for some patients in the medium and large category tumor groups, a significant decrease in dose to the structures in the anterior segment of the eye could have been achieved with the use of two ports. CONCLUSION: The development of NVG after helium-ion irradiation is correlated to the amount of lens, anterior chamber in the treatment field, tumor height, proximity to the fovea, history of diabetes, and the development of vitreous hemorrhage. Although the influence of the higher LET deposition of helium-ions is unclear, this study suggests that by reducing the dose to the anterior segment of the eye may reduce the NVG complications. Based on this retrospective analysis of LBNL patients, we have implemented techniques to reduce the amount of the anterior segment receiving a high dose in our new series of patients treated with protons using the cyclotron at the UC Davis Crocker Nuclear Laboratory (CNL).

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

NASA NTRS2012

Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Human Space Exploration Missions

NASA's future human space exploration strategy includes single and multi-launch missions to various destinations including cis-lunar space, near Earth objects such as asteroids, and ultimately Mars. Each campaign is being defined by Design Reference Missions (DRMs). Many of these missions are complex, requiring multiple launches and assembly of vehicles in orbit. Certain missions also have constrained departure windows to the destination. These factors raise concerns regarding the reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support planned departure. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing launch and assembly reliability in any single DRM or set of DRMs starting with flight hardware manufacturing and ending with final departure to the destination. A discrete event simulation is built for each DRM that includes the pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; ground transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to trans-destination-injection. Each reliability factor can be selectively activated or deactivated so that the most critical risk factors can be identified. This enables NASA to prioritize mitigation actions so as to improve mission success.

Cates, Grant↗

NASA NTRS2017

Exploratory Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Levels, Ultrasound and Optical Coherence Tomography Measures of the Eye During ISS Missions

Enhanced screening for the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome has been implemented to better characterize the ocular and vision changes observed in some long-duration crewmembers. This includes implementation of in-flight ultrasound in 2010 and optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 2013. Potential risk factors for VIIP include cardiovascular health, diet, anatomical and genetic factors, and environmental conditions. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent vasodilator, is chronically elevated on the International Space Station (ISS) relative to ambient levels on Earth, and is a plausible risk factor for VIIP. In an effort to understand the possible associations between CO2 and VIIP, this study explores the relationship of ambient CO2 levels on ISS compared to inflight ultrasound and OCT measures of the eye obtained from ISS crewmembers. CO2 measurements were aggregated from Operational Data Reduction Complex and Node 3 major constituent analyzers (MCAs) on ISS or from sensors located in the European Columbus module, as available. CO2 levels in the periods between each ultrasound and OCT session are summarized using timeseries metrics, including time-weighted means and variances. Partial least squares regression analyses are used to quantify the complex relationship between specific ultrasound and OCT measures and the CO2 metrics simulataneously. These analyses will enhance our understanding of the possible associations between CO2 levels and structural changes to the eye which will in turn inform future analysis of inflight VIIP data.

Schaefer, C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Evidence Report: Risk of Renal Stone Formation

The formation of renal stones poses an in-flight health risk of high severity, not only because of the impact of renal colic on human performance but also because of complications that could potentially lead to crew evacuation, such as hematuria, infection, hydronephrosis, and sepsis. Evidence for risk factors comes from urine analyses of crewmembers, documenting changes to the urinary environment that are conducive to increased saturation of stone-forming salts, which are the driving force for nucleation and growth of a stone nidus. Further, renal stones have been documented in astronauts after return to Earth and in one cosmonaut during flight. Biochemical analysis of urine specimens has provided indication of hypercalciuria and hyperuricemia, reduced urine volumes, and increased urine saturation of calcium oxalate and calcium phosphate. A major contributor to the risk for renal stone formation is bone atrophy with increased turnover of the bone minerals. Dietary and fluid intakes also play major roles in the risk because of the influence on urine pH (more acidic) and on volume (decreased). Historically, specific assessments on urine samples from some Skylab crewmembers indicated that calcium excretion increased early in flight, notable by day 10 of flight, and almost exceeded the upper threshold for normal excretion (300mg/day in males). Other crewmember data documented reduced intake of fluid and reduced intake of potassium, phosphorus, magnesium, and citrate (an inhibitor of calcium stone formation) in the diet. Hence, data from both short-duration and long-duration missions indicate that space travel induces risk factors for renal stone formation that continue to persist after flight; this risk has been documented by reported kidney stones in crewmembers.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA GeneLab Project: Bridging Space Radiation Omics with Ground Studies

Accurate assessment of risk factors for long-term space missions is critical for human space exploration: therefore it is essential to have a detailed understanding of the biological effects on humans living and working in deep space. Ionizing radiation from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) is one of the major risk factors factor that will impact health of astronauts on extended missions outside the protective effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Currently there are gaps in our knowledge of the health risks associated with chronic low dose, low dose rate ionizing radiation, specifically ions associated with high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E). The GeneLab project (genelab.nasa.gov) aims to provide a detailed library of Omics datasets associated with biological samples exposed to HZE. The GeneLab Data System (GLDS) currently includes datasets from both spaceflight and ground-based studies, a majority of which involve exposure to ionizing radiation. In addition to detailed information for ground-based studies, we are in the process of adding detailed, curated dosimetry information for spaceflight missions. GeneLab is the first comprehensive Omics database for space related research from which an investigator can generate hypotheses to direct future experiments utilizing both ground and space biological radiation data. In addition to previously acquired data, the GLDS is continually expanding as Omics related data are generated by the space life sciences community. Here we provide a brief summary of space radiation related data available at GeneLab.

Genelab↗

NASA NTRS2013

Microbial Monitoring of the International Space Station

Humans living and working in the harsh environment of space present many challenges for habitability engineers and microbiologists. Spacecraft must provide an internal environment in which physical (gas composition, pressure, temperature, and humidity), chemical, and biological environmental parameters are maintained at safe levels. Microorganisms are ubiquitous and will accompany all human-occupied spacecraft, but if biological contamination were to reach unacceptable levels, long-term human space flight would be impossible. Prevention of microbiological problems, therefore, must have a high priority. Historically, prevention of infectious disease in the crew has been the highest priority, but experience gained from the NASA-Mir program showed that microbial contamination of vehicle and life-support systems, such as biofouling of water and food, are of equal importance. The major sources of microbiological risk factors for astronauts include food, drinking water, air, surfaces, payloads, research animals, crew members, and personnel in close contact with the astronauts. In our efforts to eliminate or mitigate the negative effects of microorganisms in spacecraft, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) implemented comprehensive microbial analyses of the major risk factors. This included the establishment of acceptability requirements for food, water, air, surfaces, and crew members. A robust monitoring program was then implemented to verify that the risks were within acceptable limits. Prevention of microbiological problems is preferred over mitigation of problems during flight, and preventive steps must begin very early in the design phase. Spacecraft development must include requirements to control free water from humidity, condensate, hygiene activities, and other releases. If water is available, microbes are likely to grow because sufficient nutrients are potentially available. Materials selected for the spacecraft must not promote or support microbial growth. Air filtration can dramatically reduce the number of airborne bacteria, fungi, and particulates in spacecraft breathing air. Waterborne bacteria can be reduced to acceptable levels by thermal inactivation of bacteria during water processing, along with a residual biocide, and filtration at the point of use can ensure safety. System design must include onboard capability to achieve recovery of the system from contamination. Robust housekeeping procedures that include periodic cleaning and disinfection will prevent high levels of microbial growth on surfaces. Food for consumption in space must be thoroughly tested for excessive microbial content and pathogens before launch. Thorough preflight examination of flight crews, consumables, payloads, and the environment can greatly reduce pathogens in spacecraft. Many of the lessons learned from the Space Shuttle and previous programs were applied in the early design phase of the International Space Station, resulting in the safest space habitat to date. This presentation describes the monitoring program for the International Space Station and will summarize results from preflight and on-orbit monitoring.

Pierson, Duane L.↗

NASA NTRS1970

Normally Expected Aberrations in the 8-hour Dynamic EKG

The establishment of norms for interpreting long term dynamic electrocardiograms is attempted by correlating a completely disease symptom and cardiac risk factor free sample with a non-pure sample in the direction of normality on various variables. Out of a population of 362 subjects exposed to dynamic electrocardiogram testing, a discrimination between normals and abnormals in terms of traditional risk factors was observed. The two groups differed significantly on the following variables: cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure, white blood count, fasting blood sugar, uric acid, resting EKG, year of birth, and coronary insufficiency.

Fleck, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Managing the Risk for Early Onset Osteoporosis in Long-Duration Astronauts Due to Spaceflight

Early Onset Osteoporosis is probably the most recognized but poorly understood long-term health risk due to spaceflight. Osteoporosis management is primarily prophylactic and clinical interventions rely upon the ability to predict fractures which is currently determined by surrogate measures of bone strength. The RMAT for Early Onset Osteoporosis identified some open issues related to the fact that long-duration astronauts compose a unique group of subjects for which clinical approaches for osteoporosis management do not apply. Long-duration astronauts are healthy, young (25 to 55 years of age), predominantly male, and physical fit relative to the typical osteoporosis patient. Moreover, during prolonged space missions (typically 6-month missions) the skeleton not only adapts to weightlessness, but is influenced by numerous risk factors induced by operational constraints, e.g., inability to maintain preflight weight-bearing and aerobic activities, sub-optimal dietary intake (e.g., high sodium content for food stability, lack of fresh fruit and vegetables), suppression of vitamin D metabolism by uv shielding, and remote medicine care. Moreover, adaptation results in novel changes to astronauts bones that cannot be detected by current medically-useful measures. Consequently, a panel of clinicians (recognized leaders and policy-makers in osteoporosis) was convened to review the dataset of bone measures and bone loss risk factors in long-duration astronauts. Driven by the queries in the RMAT, the panel was charged to determine 1) if an intervention is required to prevent this risk, 2) what type and at what time would intervention be optimal, 3) what is the clinical trigger that would require a medical response from flight surgeons and 4) how should research data be used in the clinical care of astronauts. Hence, the RMAT determined that a bone health policy need to be formulated specific for this unique cohort subjected to a novel skeletal condition

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Assessing applicants to the NASA flight program for their renal stone-forming potential

Because spaceflight can provoke the formation of kidney stones, 24-hour urine samples for 104 male applicants were analyzed for stone-forming risk factors prior to their selection into the NASA astronaut-mission specialist corps. A high level of supersaturation (with either calcium oxalate, brushite, or monosodium urate) was noted in these applicants which predisposes them to the crystallization of stone-forming calcium salts. It is suggested that most of the abnormal stone risk factors found were environmental, rather than metabolic, in origin.

Pak, Charles Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1977

Coronary heart disease index based on longitudinal electrocardiography

A coronary heart disease index was developed from longitudinal ECG (LCG) tracings to serve as a cardiac health measure in studies of working and, essentially, asymptomatic populations, such as pilots and executives. For a given subject, the index consisted of a composite score based on the presence of LCG aberrations and weighted values previously assigned to them. The index was validated by correlating it with the known presence or absence of CHD as determined by a complete physical examination, including treadmill, resting ECG, and risk factor information. The validating sample consisted of 111 subjects drawn by a stratified-random procedure from 5000 available case histories. The CHD index was found to be significantly more valid as a sole indicator of CHD than the LCG without the use of the index. The index consistently produced higher validity coefficients in identifying CHD than did treadmill testing, resting ECG, or risk factor analysis.

Townsend, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Atrial Arrhythmias in Astronauts. Summary of a NASA Summit

This slide presentation reviews the findings of a panel of heart experts brought together to study if atrial arrhythmias more prevalent in astronauts, and potential risk factors that may predispose astronauts to atrial arrhythmias. The objective of the panel was to solicit expert opinion on screening, diagnosis, and treatment options, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose relevant research initiatives. While Atrial Arrhythmias occur in approximately the same percents in astronauts as in the general population, they seem to occur at younger ages in astronauts. Several reasons for this predisposition were given: gender, hypertension, endurance training, and triggering events. Potential Space Flight-Related Risk factors that may play a role in precipitating lone atrial fibrillation were reviewed. There appears to be no evidence that any variable of the space flight environment increases the likelihood of developing atrial arrhythmias during space flight.

Barr, Yael↗

NASA NTRS2009

Using Satellite Data to Evaluate Linkages Between Land Cover/Land Use and Hypertension in a National Cohort

Coincident with global expansion of urban areas has been an increase in hypertension. It is unclear how much the urban environment contributes as a risk factor for blood pressure differences, and how much is due to a variety of environmental, lifestyle, and demographic correlates of urbanization. Objectives/Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between living environment (defined as urban, suburban, or rural) and hypertension in selected regions from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. Methods: REGARDS is a national cohort of 30,228 participants from the 48 contiguous United States. We used data from 4 metropolitan regions (Philadelphia, Atlanta, Minneapolis and Chicago) for this study (n=3928). We used Land Cover/Land Use (LCLU) information from the 30-meter National Land Cover Data. Results: Overall, 1996 (61%) of the participants were hypertensive. We characterized participants into urban, suburban or rural living environments using the LCLU data. In univariate models, we found that living environment is associated with hypertension, but that after adjustment for known hypertension risk factors, the relationship was no longer present at the 95% confidence level. Conclusions: LCLU data can be utilized to characterize the living environment, which in turn can be applied to studies of public health outcomes. Further study regarding the relationship between hypertension and living environment should focus on additional characteristics of the associated environment.

McClure, Leslie↗