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NASA NTRS2012

Managing Small Spacecraft Projects: Less is Not Easier

Managing small, low cost missions (class C or D) is not necessarily easier than managing a full flagship mission. Yet, small missions are typically considered easier to manage and used as a training ground for developing the next generation of project managers. While limited resources can be a problem for small missions, in reality most of the issues inherent in managing small projects are not the direct result of limited resources. Instead, problems encountered by managers of small spacecraft missions often derive from 1) the perception that managing small projects is easier if something is easier it needs less rigor and formality in execution, 2) the perception that limited resources necessitate or validate omitting standard management practices, 3) less stringent or unclear guidelines or policies for small projects, and 4) stakeholder expectations that are not consistent with the size and nature of the project. For example, the size of a project is sometimes used to justify not building a full, detailed integrated master schedule. However, while a small schedule slip may not be a problem for a large mission, it can indicate a serious problem for a small mission with a short development phase, highlighting the importance of the schedule for early identification of potential issues. Likewise, stakeholders may accept a higher risk posture early in the definition of a low-cost mission, but as launch approaches this acceptance may change. This presentation discusses these common misconceptions about managing small, low cost missions, the problems that can result, and possible solutions.

Barley, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS2012

Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station Through 2020 and Beyond: Reassessing Confidence Targets for System Availability

The International Space Station (ISS) was originally designed to operate until 2015 with a plan for deorbiting the ISS in 2016. Currently, the international partnership has agreed to extend the operations until 2020 and discussions are underway to extend the life even further to 2028. Each partner is responsible for the sustaining engineering, sparing, and maintenance of their own segments. National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) challenge is to purchase the needed number of spares to maintain the functional availability of the ISS systems necessary for the United States On-Orbit Segment s contribution. This presentation introduces an analytical approach to assessing uncertainty in ISS hardware necessary to extend the life of the vehicle. Some key areas for consideration are: establishing what confidence targets are required to ensure science can be continuously carried out on the ISS, defining what confidence targets are reasonable to ensure vehicle survivability, considering what is required to determine if the confidence targets are too high, and whether sufficient number of spares are purchased. The results of the analysis will provide a methodological basis for reassessing vehicle subsystem confidence targets. This analysis compares the probability of existing spares exceeding the total expected unit demand of the Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) in functional hierarchies approximating the vehicle subsystems. In cases where the functional hierarchies' availability does not meet subsystem confidence targets, the analysis will further identify which ORUs may require additional spares to extend the life of the ISS. The resulting probability is dependent upon hardware reliability estimates. However, the ISS hardware fleet carries considerable epistemic uncertainty which must be factored into the development and execution of sparing risk postures. In addition, it is also recognized that uncertainty in the assessment is due to disconnects between modeled functions and actual subsystem operations. Perhaps most importantly, it is acknowledged that conservative confidence targets per subsystem are currently accepted. This presentation will also discuss how subsystem confidence targets may be relaxed based on calculating the level of uncertainty for each corresponding ORU-function. The presentation will conclude with the various strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life; 2020 and beyond.

Lutomski, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probability and Confidence Trade-Space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

Purpose of presentation: (1) Status update on the developing methodology to revise sub-system sparing targets. (2) To describe how to incorporate uncertainty into spare assessments and why it is important to do so (3) Demonstrate hardware risk postures through PACT evaluation

Anderson, Leif↗

NASA NTRS2012

Analysis of CSIRT/SOC Incidents and Continuous Monitoring of Threats

Security Operations Centers (SOC) contain a wealth of data which, if properly classified and tagged upfront, can yield a wealth of real-time information about your organizations IT Security posture, risks, and threats. These include answers to relevant and actionable questions such as: What are our biggest threats? Who is attacking us and what do they want? What controls are working or not working? How effective was the new technology we just implemented? What is our ROI?

Wang, John↗

NASA NTRS2012

Review and Assessment of JPL's Thermal Margins

JPL has captured its experience from over four decades of robotic space exploration into a set of design rules. These rules have gradually changed into explicit requirements and are now formally implemented and verified. Over an extended period of time, the initial understanding of intent and rationale for these rules has faded and rules are now frequently applied without further consideration. In the meantime, mission classes and their associated risk postures have evolved, coupled with resource constraints and growing design diversity, bringing into question the current "one size fits all" thermal margin approach. This paper offers a systematic review of the heat flow path from an electronic junction to the eventual heat rejection to space. This includes the identification of different regimes along this path and the associated requirements. The work resulted in a renewed understanding of the intent behind JPL requirements for hot thermal margins and a framework for relevant considerations, which in turn enables better decision making when a deviation to these requirements is considered.

derating↗

NASA NTRS2015

Identification and Evaluation of Integration and Cross Cutting Issues Across HRP Risks

The HRP Integrated Research Plan contains the research plans for the 32 risks requiring research to characterize and mitigate. These risks to human health and performance in spaceflight are identified by evidence and each one focuses on a single aspect of human physiology or performance. They are further categorized by aspects of the spaceflight environment, such as altered gravity or space radiation, that that play a major role in their likelihood and consequence. From its inception the "integrate" in the Research Plan has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance, the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body regardless of the spaceflight environment, and the integrated response of the human body to the spaceflight environment. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres and light/dark cycles, space radiation, isolation, noise, and periods of high or low workload. Long term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts, deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Matrix diagraming was used to systematically identify, analyze and rate the many-to-many relationships between environmental characteristics and the suite of physiological effects. It was also to identify patterns in the relationships of common physiological effects to each other. Analyses of patterns or relationships in these diagrams help to identify issues that cut across multiple risks. Cross cutting issues benefit from a multidisciplinary approach that synthesizes concepts or data from two or more disciplines to identify and characterize risk factors or develop countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. They also help to illuminate possible problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Conjunction Assessment Past, Present, and Future

Since 1957, humankind's reliance on the space domain for military, humanitarian, and commercial applications has continued to increase. 1960 first successful use of a meteorological satellite,1963 first use of a geosynchronous communications satellite, 1985 Block I of GPS fielded, 1998 first module of ISS, 2001 first satellite radio broadcast over North America. What you take into space, stays in space: launch vehicle, rocket-bodies, mission-related debris. Debris can also be generated on-orbit: fuel/battery explosions, collisions. Only naturally-occurring retarding effect is orbital decay due to atmospheric drag: some remediation measures available, active debris removal not yet viable option. Because of our reliance on space and the fact that space really isn't limitless, the Big Sky theory is no longer an acceptable risk posture. There have been eight (8) on-orbit collisions reported to date, half of which occurred in the last 10 years.

Assessment↗

NASA NTRS2016

Humans vs Hardware: The Unique World of NASA Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding spaceflight risks to crew health and performance is a crucial aspect of preparing for exploration missions in the future. The research activities of the Human Research Program (HRP) provide substantial evidence to support most risk reduction work. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), acting on behalf of the Office of Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO), assesses these risks and assigns likelihood and consequence ratings to track progress. Unfortunately, many traditional approaches in risk assessment such as those used in the engineering aspects of spaceflight are difficult to apply to human system risks. This presentation discusses the unique aspects of risk assessment from the human system risk perspective and how these limitations are accommodated and addressed in order to ensure that reasonable inputs are provided to support the OCHMO's overall risk posture for manned exploration missions.

Anton, W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys the required stages for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it provides mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 3000 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo-propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Design and Development of a Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for Human Mars Exploration

NASA is currently working on the Evolvabe Mars Campaign (EMC) study to outline transportation and mission options for human exploration of Mars. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging current and planned near-term technology investments to build an affordable and evolvable approach to Mars exploration. This leveraging of investments includes the use of high-power Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems, evolved from those currently under development in support of the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), to deliver payloads to Mars. The EMC is considering several transportation options that combine solar electric and chemical propulsion technologies to deliver crew and cargo to Mars. In one primary architecture option, the SEP propulsion system is used to pre-deploy mission elements to Mars while a high-thrust chemical propulsion system is used to send crew on faster ballistic transfers between Earth and Mars. This high-thrust chemical system uses liquid oxygen - liquid methane main propulsion and reaction control systems integrated into the Methane Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (MCPS). Over the past year, there have been several studies completed to provide critical design and development information related to the MCPS. This paper is intended to provide a summary of these efforts. A summary of the current point of departure design for the MCPS is provided as well as an overview of the mission architecture and concept of operations that the MCPS is intended to support. To leverage the capabilities of solar electric propulsion to the greatest extent possible, the EMC architecture pre-deploys to Mars orbit the stages required for returning crew from Mars. While this changes the risk posture of the architecture, it can provide some mass savings by using higher-efficiency systems for interplanetary transfer. However, this does introduce significantly longer flight times to Mars which, in turn, increases the overall lifetime of the stages to as long as 2500 days. This unique aspect to the concept of operations introduces several challenges, specifically related to propellant storage and engine reliability. These challenges and some potential solutions are discussed. Specific focus is provided on two key technology areas; propulsion and cryogenic fluid management. In the area of propulsion development, the development of an integrated methane propulsion system that combines both main propulsion and reaction control is discussed. This includes an overview of potential development paths, areas where development for Mars applications are complementary to development efforts underway in other parts of the aerospace industry, and commonality between the MCPS methane propulsion applications and other Mars elements, including the Mars lander systems. This commonality is a key affordability aspect of the Evolvable Mars Campaign. A similar discussion is provided for cryogenic fluid management technologies including a discussion of how using cryo propulsion in the Mars transportation application not only provides performance benefits but also leverages decades of technology development investments made by NASA and its aerospace contractor community.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

The development of a nuclear thermal propulsion stage requires consideration for radiation emitted from the nuclear reactor core. Applying shielding mass is an effective mitigating solution, but a better alternative is to incorporate some mitigation strategies into the propulsion stage and crew habitat. In this way, the required additional mass is minimized and the mass that must be applied may in some cases be able to serve multiple purposes. Strategies for crew compartment shielding are discussed that reduce dose from both engine and cosmic sources, and in some cases may also serve to reduce life support risks by permitting abundant water reserves. Early consideration for integrated mitigation solutions in a crewed nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) vehicle will enable reduced radiation burden from both cosmic and nuclear sources, improved thrust-to-weight ratio or payload capacity by reducing 'dead mass' of shielding, and generally support a more robust risk posture for a NTP-powered Mars mission by permitting shorter trip times and increased water reserves

Caffrey, Jarvis↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrated NTP Vehicle Radiation Design

Caffrey, Jarvis A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Gaps in Thermal Design Guidelines in the Goddard Space Flight Center GOLD Rules

The GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) GOLD Rules (Goddard Open Learning Design; GSFC-STD-1000) provide a reasonably comprehensive list of guidelines for the design and testing of spacecraft and instruments based on the long heritage of successful GSFC missions. In general, all GSFC missions are required to comply with the GOLD Rules across a number of subsystems or to seek waivers to particular GOLD rules where compliance is not practical, either due to the risk posture of a mission or the cost and/or schedule associated with compliance. In thermal subsystems, GOLD Rules are applied to design margins throughout the project life cycle and include temperature margins, heater power margins, and two-phase transport margins. However, no explicit guidance is provided for two thermal design aspects: heater control authority (for stability requirements) and cryogenic design margins (which are often not reasonable to express in terms of temperatures). This can lead to ambiguity and inconsistency among projects when demonstrating GOLD Rules compliance. Two current GSFC projects, TIRS-2 (Thermal InfraRed Sensor 2) and WFIRST (Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope), are both missions with cryogenic aspects and active thermal control for stability. This paper seeks to outline the characterization of cryogenic margins during the design process for TIRS-2 and WFIRST as well as the project derived guidelines for heater control authority margin. This effort serves as potential first steps for updating the GOLD Rules to address these two areas in guiding thermal designs at GSFC.

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2018

TPS Architectures and the Influence of Material and Architecture on Failure Mode Evolution

A primary focus of the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA Ames is design, development, qualification and certification of Thermal Protection Systems for current NASA missions. Another primary focus is the development of new thermal protection systems for upcoming missions that address shortfalls in the existing suite of TPS. Examples of such shortfalls include performance at higher capability and reduction in mass. NASA is also investing in TPS sustainability ensuring the long term availability of TPS solutions for future missions. The specific TPS selection, for a given mission , depends on a number of parameters including the missions risk posture. For all missions the goal for TPS is efficient and reliable performance and to achieve these goals an understanding of the materials (composition and architecture) is required for proper design and use of the chosen TPS. Analytic tools are used to inform on a material (systems) response to a given environment and the response itself depends on the materials properties which are driven by its composition and architecture. This presentation will review the different generic ablative TPS architectures and anticipated corresponding failure modes.

ablator↗

NASA NTRS2016

V&V on a NASA Technology Demonstration Project: Low Density Supersonic Decelerator

Given their smaller budgets, but higher allowed risk posture, technology demonstration missions face different Verification and Validation (V&V) challenges than typical NASA missions. Despite these challenges, the Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project, managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has been extremely successful in testing new supersonic atmospheric decelerator technologies. A contribution to the project’s success is the unique V&V program that emphasized efficiency and flexibility. This paper will provide an overview of LDSD test objectives, Supersonic Flight Dynamics Tests (SFDT) performed so far, unique requirements structure and V&V processes implemented. The paper will focus on the V&V of the SFDT test architecture. Furthermore, lessons learned will also be presented at the end of the paper to aid future technology demonstration projects.

Murry, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Space Flight LiDARs, Navigation & Science Instrument Implementations: Lasers, Optoelectronics, Integrated Photonics, Fiber Optic Subsystems and Components

For the past 25 years, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center's Photonics Group in the Engineering Directorate has been substantially contributing to the flight design, development, production, testing and integration of many science and navigational instruments. The Moon to Mars initiative will rely heavily upon utilizing commercial technologies for instrumentation with aggressive schedule deadlines. The group has an extensive background in screening, qualifying, development and integration of commercial components for spaceflight applications. By remaining adaptable and employing a rigorous approach to component and instrument development, they have forged and fostered relationships with industry partners. They have been willing to communicate lessons learned in packaging, part construction, materials selection, testing, and other facets of the design and production process critical to implementation for high-reliability systems. As a result, this successful collaboration with industry vendors and component suppliers has enabled a history of mission success from the Moon to Mars (and beyond) while balancing cost, schedule, and risk postures. In cases where no commercial components exist, the group works closely with other teams at Goddard Space Flight Center and other NASA field centers to fabricate and produce flight hardware for science, remote sensing, and navigation applications. Summarized here is the last ten years of instrumentation development lessons learned and data collected from the subsystems down to the optoelectronic component level.

Detectors↗

NASA NTRS2020

Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS): Establishing a Measurement Plan for Identification and Characterization of a Water Reserve

NASA’s Artemis program aims to achieve a sustainable lunar presence by 2028. To carry out sustained crewed surface operations, In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), which would use lunar resources (e.g., water) to produce mission consumables, will be critical. Water-bearing materials have been identified at both lunar poles, butthe nature and extent of this resource is not well understood. Identification of the presence of water alone is not adequate for ISRU architecture planning and engineering design. The Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS) assessed and defined the type, amount, and fidelity of the information and measurements needed to select mining locations for lunar water ISRU and to define requirements for ISRU hardware and architecture development. Current ISRU requirements were used to define a water ‘reserve’ in this context. A measurement plan to achieve these goals includes three key elements; a predictive ‘water favorability’ model to identify and map potential deposits, continued assessment of orbital data, and three types of landed missions to make direct ground measurements. Corresponding mission scenarios and instrument suites will depend on risk posture and timelines for ISRU implementation.

In situ resource utilization↗

NASA NTRS2008

QuikSCAT follow - on concept study

Global, real-time observations of the speed and direction of winds over the oceans ocean surface vector winds [OSVW]) are high priority measurements for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) weather forecasting, prediction, and hazard warning communities. At present, these data are provided by the experimental National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) QuikSCAT satellite sensor, which is operating well beyond its design lifetime. To continue to meet the Nation’s need for operational OSVW observations beyond QuikSCAT, NOAA tasked the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to design and provide costs for a set of QuikSCAT Follow-On mission options. Three scenarios were examined: 1) a QuikSCAT Replacement mission with capabilities commensurate to QuikSCAT, 2) a next-generation Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM), as recommended in the National Research Council’s decadal survey to provide significantly improved all-weather, allwind, high spatial resolution measurements, and 3) an XOVWM Constellation consisting of two XOVWM observatories to provide improved temporal resolution. In parallel, NOAA asked its users to provide a quantitative assessment of each option’s benefit to NOAA. This report presents the JPL design, risk assessment, and cost for each of three options, together with a summary of the NOAA users’ benefit assessment. The report concludes that though all options are technically feasible for immediate implementation and have a risk posture consistent with a NOAA operational mission, the XOVWM options provide significant observational benefits. While a QuikSCAT Replacement option would continue current operational measurement capabilities, there is a strong and clearly defined operational need for improved capabilities in high winds (e.g., hurricanes or extra-tropical cyclones), heavy precipitation, and near coasts to enable significantly improved severe storm and coastal hazard forecasts, which are provided only by the XOVWM options.

Rodriquez, Ernesto↗