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NASA NTRS2014

Cutting More than Metal: Breaking Through the Development Cycle

NASA is advancing a new development approach and new technologies in the design construction, and testing of the next great launch vehicle for space exploration. The ability to use these new tools is made possible by a learning culture able to embrace innovation, flexibility, and prudent risk tolerance, while retaining the hard-won lessons learned through the successes and failures of the past. This paper provides an overview of the Marshall Space Flight Center's new approach to launch vehicle development, as well as examples of how that approach has been leveraged by NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) Program to achieve its key goals to safety, affordability, and sustainability.

Singer, Christopher E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

SPHERES National Lab Facility

SPHERES is a facility of the ISS National Laboratory with three IVA nano-satellites designed and delivered by MIT to research estimation, control, and autonomy algorithms. Since Fall 2010, The SPHERES system is now operationally supported and managed by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC). A SPHERES Program Office was established and is located at NASA Ames Research Center. The SPHERES Program Office coordinates all SPHERES related research and STEM activities on-board the International Space Station (ISS), as well as, current and future payload development. By working aboard ISS under crew supervision, it provides a risk tolerant Test-bed Environment for Distributed Satellite Free-flying Control Algorithms. If anything goes wrong, reset and try again! NASA has made the capability available to other U.S. government agencies, schools, commercial companies and students to expand the pool of ideas for how to test and use these bowling ball-sized droids. For many of the researchers, SPHERES offers the only opportunity to do affordable on-orbit characterization of their technology in the microgravity environment. Future utilization of SPHERES as a facility will grow its capabilities as a platform for science, technology development, and education.

Free Flyer↗

NASA NTRS2012

Reliability Considerations of ULP Scaled CMOS in Spacecraft Systems

NASA, the aerospace community, and other high reliability (hi-rel) users of advanced microelectronic products face many challenges as technology continues to scale into the deep sub-micron region. Decreasing the feature size of CMOS devices not only allows more components to be placed on a single chip, but it increases performance by allowing faster switching (or clock) speeds with reduced power compared to larger scaled devices. Higher performance, and lower operating and stand-by power characteristics of Ultra-Low Power (ULP) microelectronics are not only desirable, but also necessary to meet low power consumption design goals of critical spacecraft systems. The integration of these components in such systems, however, must be balanced with the overall risk tolerance of the project.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Low Cost Weather Balloon Borne Solar Cell Calibration Payload

Calibration of standard sets of solar cell sub-cells is an important step to laboratory verification of on-orbit performance of new solar cell technologies. This paper, looks at the potential capabilities of a lightweight weather balloon payload for solar cell calibration. A 1500 gr latex weather balloon can lift a 2.7 kg payload to over 100,000 ft altitude, above 99% of the atmosphere. Data taken between atmospheric pressures of about 30 to 15 mbar may be extrapolated via the Langley Plot method to 0 mbar, i.e. AMO. This extrapolation, in principle, can have better than 0.1 % error. The launch costs of such a payload arc significantly less than the much larger, higher altitude balloons, or the manned flight facility. The low cost enables a risk tolerant approach to payload development. Demonstration of 1% standard deviation flight-to-flight variation is the goal of this project. This paper describes the initial concept of solar cell calibration payload, and reports initial test flight results. .

Snyder, David B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Class D Management Implementation Approach of the First Orbital Mission of the Earth Venture Series

A key element of the National Research Council's Earth Science and Applications Decadal Survey called for the creation of the Venture Class line of low-cost research and application missions within NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration). One key component of the architecture chosen by NASA within the Earth Venture line is a series of self-contained stand-alone spaceflight science missions called "EV-Mission". The first mission chosen for this competitively selected, cost and schedule capped, Principal Investigator-led opportunity is the CYclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). As specified in the defining Announcement of Opportunity, the Principal Investigator is held responsible for successfully achieving the science objectives of the selected mission and the management approach that he/she chooses to obtain those results has a significant amount of freedom as long as it meets the intent of key NASA guidance like NPR 7120.5 and 7123. CYGNSS is classified under NPR 7120.5E guidance as a Category 3 (low priority, low cost) mission and carries a Class D risk classification (low priority, high risk) per NPR 8705.4. As defined in the NPR guidance, Class D risk classification allows for a relatively broad range of implementation strategies. The management approach that will be utilized on CYGNSS is a streamlined implementation that starts with a higher risk tolerance posture at NASA and that philosophy flows all the way down to the individual part level.

Wells, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Recent Advances and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

We cover a top-level introduction to hardness assurance (HA) from a robotic space system perspective, starting at the piece-part level. We discuss error sources inherent to presently-accepted HA practices and why they cause us to be risk-averse. We conclude by reviewing current proposals that move towards more risk-tolerant system design approaches as well as future challenges that will require these advanced techniques.

radiation effects↗

NASA NTRS2017

Recent Radiation Test Results for Trench Power MOSFETs

Single-event effect (SEE) radiation test results are presented for various trench-gate power MOSFETs. The heavy-ion response of the first (and only) radiation-hardened trench-gate power MOSFET is evaluated: the manufacturer SEE response curve is verified and importantly, no localized dosing effects are measured, distinguishing it from other, non-hardened trench-gate power MOSFETs. Evaluations are made of n-type commercial and both n- and p-type automotive grade trench-gate device using ions comparable to of those on the low linear energy transfer (LET) side of the iron knee of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum, to explore suitability of these parts for missions with higher risk tolerance and shorter duration, such as CubeSats. Part-to-part variability of SEE threshold suggests testing with larger sample sizes and applying more aggressive derating to avoid on-orbit failures. The n-type devices yielded expected localized dosing effects including when irradiated in an unbiased (0-V) configuration, adding to the challenge of inserting these parts into space flight missions.

Schottky Diodes↗

NASA NTRS2017

Single-Event Effect Testing of the Vishay Si7414DN n-Type TrenchFET(Registered Trademark) Power MOSFET

This study was being undertaken to determine the single event effect susceptibility of the commercial Vishay 60-V TrenchFET power MOSFET. Heavy-ion testing was conducted at the Texas AM University Cyclotron Single Event Effects Test Facility (TAMU) and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory BASE Cyclotron Facility (LBNL). In addition, initial 200-MeV proton testing was conducted at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) Francis H. Burr Proton Beam Therapy Center. Testing was performed to evaluate this device for single-event effects from lower-LET, lighter ions relevant to higher risk tolerant space missions.

proton testing↗

NASA NTRS2018

Balancing Public & Private Partnerships for Future Human Spaceflight

Privatization is key to America's current and future interests in Space and is consistent with the 2010 Title 51 "National Aeronautics and Space Act" which states "COMMERCIAL USE OF SPACE. - Congress declares that the general welfare of the United States requires that the Administration seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space." With this thought in mind, this paper discusses several key considerations when entering into a Human Spaceflight Public/Private partnership, with particular attention to the engineering team engagement. NASA's historically develops technology and capability in areas that are not commercially profitable but can enable future commercial opportunities. By leveraging the experiences and lessons learned from the past, we can improve our opportunities for success in the future. We have made great strides in these areas, but there is significant room for improvement. This paper intends to highlight many of the thoughts and considerations, which are necessary when developing a public/private partnership for "Human Spaceflight". Although this paper is being developed with an emphasis on "Human Spaceflight", many of the thoughts may have applicability to un-crewed missions. This paper does not attempt to define specific lines between government and private entities, since those lines vary based on many factors such as allocation of roles, responsibilities and accountabilities between participants and risk tolerance for both safety of flight and mission success.

Kennedy, John J.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Seeker 1.0: Prototype Robotic Free Flying Inspector Mission Overview

Seeker 1.0 is a prototype free flying robot that will one day be capable of inspecting human-rated spacecraft. Building off previous free flyer experience, this technology will eventually improve safety of human spacecraft by offering a variety of inspection capabilities for both routine and emergency scenarios providing increased capability and safety over current inspection methods. Seeker 1.0 is capable of 6 degree of freedom flight via a cold gas propulsion system and can operate up to 1 hour via a semi-autonomous guidance, navigation, and control system. The prototype spacecraft is capable of capturing still images at a variety of resolutions up to 13 MP. The initial test flight utilizes a command and data relay box called Kenobi. Kenobi is a derivative of the Seeker design and will communicate between Cygnus and Seeker and store data for post-mission downlink. Seeker and Kenobi have launched inside a NanoRacks External CubeSat Deployer (NRCSD-E) attached to the NG-11 Cygnus ISS resupply vehicle and will operate after Cygnus departs ISS and moves to a safe altitude. Operations will last approximately 30 minutes and will consist of basic vehicle maneuvers while capturing high-resolution still images. With any remaining time and propellant, Seeker will demonstrate additional safety capabilities and maneuvers required for operations around a crewed spacecraft. The Seeker project utilized the Class IE process that allows for streamlined flight hardware development and increased mission risk tolerance.

Spacecraft Inspection↗

NASA NTRS2019

Pilot Evaluation of Proposed Go-Around Criteria for Transport Category Aircraft

The primary objective of this study was to capture pilot feedback and decision-making with regard to proposed, hypothetical, go-around criteria that were developed based on previous research. A secondary objective of the study was to assess crew members' awareness of the aircraft state on approach. An experiment was conducted using Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A330-200 level D full-flight simulators, in which pilots flew multiple approaches which were on the borderline of the proposed go-around criteria at 300 ft. Pilots were instructed that they could either execute a go-around or land the airplane on each run, forcing a decision for the borderline cases at 300 ft. Pilots were instructed to go around if the aircraft was outside of the go-around criteria at 300 ft or if either pilot was uncomfortable with the approach. The results revealed that: 1) the most important factors which drove go-around decision-making during the experiment were airspeed and localizer deviation, 2) the objective data suggested that the 300-ft gate is viable, although many pilots were still uncomfortable with that gate height; perhaps more emphasis on checking stability at 1,000 ft and 500 ft would make more pilots comfortable with the 300-ft go-around gate, 3) allowing for momentary deviations should be considered, and 4) the acceptability of the criteria is highly dependent on given pilot's risk tolerance. Overall, the proposed criteria performed well, and most pilots would find the criteria acceptable with some minor adjustments.

go-arounds↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VIPER – Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover: Mission Overview

VIPER is a low cost, lunar volatiles detection and measurement mission that will be delivered to the lunar south pole by one of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services partners and will characterize the nature of the volatiles in the area and extrapolate this data to create global lunar water resource maps. It will be the first mining expedition on another world while simultaneously addressing fundamental planetary science questions. Prospecting for lunar water at the poles is the next step in understanding the resource potential and addressing key theories about water emplacement and retention. It now appears that potentially economically significant amounts of water ice exists at the poles of the Moon, however, the distribution of this water is still not understood at a level sufficient to fully evaluate economic models. The water ice (and other potential volatiles), the “ore body”, needs to be understood at the scales of 10s to 100s of meters to evaluate localization, extraction and processing techniques. To accomplish this, VIPER will survey permanently-shadowed regions, semi-permanent shadowed regions, and even semi and full sunlit areas in order to have a comprehensive survey of polar region volatiles, to best inform future mission architectures. In order to characterize the volatiles, a payload suite consisting of a neutron spectrometer, mass spectrometer, near infrared spectrometer and a 1-meter drill will be hosted on the VIPER mobile lunar rover platform. Since VIPER is a relatively low cost, schedule-constrained, risk-tolerant mission, there are architectural limitations that require unique mission planning constraints to enable exploration of the lunar south pole region. These regions offer unique challenges such as uncertain terrain conditions, rock and crater hazards, lunar dust, multipath communications effects, extreme thermal environments and multiple overlapping planning constraints. Mission design/traverse planning, system design capabilities and mission operations are all highly linked through initial development phases. We will describe the current mission overview and the unique approaches taken by the VIPER project based on our programmatic framework and unique mission environment.

VIPER↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Trident: The Path to Triton on a Discovery Budget

This paper describes Trident, a proposed Discovery mission to Neptune’s moon Triton, 30 AU from the Sun. Triton formed in the Kuiper Belt but was captured by Neptune into a highly-inclined retrograde orbit, where tidal forces thawed its interior, forming an ocean that likely persists to the present day. Recent outer solar system missions like Cassini and New Horizons have yielded completely new models for processes on ocean worlds, active worlds, and KBOs. Triton isn’t just a key to solar system science, it’s a whole keyring: a singular captured KBO and evolved ocean world, with active plumes, an energetic ionosphere, and a young unique surface. The NASA OPAG Roadmap to Ocean Worlds identifies Triton as the highest priority candidate ocean world [1], ripe for investigation. The Trident mission concept is an excellent case study in “design to cost”: we show how exploration of Triton under Discovery is made possible by radioisotope power combined with a rare, extremely efficient Jupiter gravity assist, enabling a simple, lowmass spacecraft design on a ballistic trajectory. The Triton encounter sequence probes for an ocean, measures the ionosphere, and views nearly the whole of Triton as it traverses a single orbit around Neptune, mapping the >60% of the surface that is as yet unseen. The Triton encounter concludes with fullframe imaging illuminated by “Neptune-shine” when Trident is in Neptune eclipse, for direct comparison with Voyager 2’s observations nearly 50 years prior. Trident carries a mature complement of instruments: a Magnetometer, IR Spectrometer & Narrow Angle Camera, Wide-Angle Camera, Plasma Spectrometer, and telecom hardware-enabled Radio Science. The flight system design integrates heritage components from Ball with JPL leadership and expertise in key specialty areas to provide a Voyager-like, robust spacecraft commensurate with a Discovery cost and risk tolerance. Cost avoidance features include: use of existing instrument designs, small blowdown monopropellant propulsion system, a contributed X-band telecommunications system that also performs radio science, and a simple power system. Additionally, the passive thermal design accommodates the large solar dynamic range from Venus to Neptune by using the HGA for shade when close to the sun, and MMRTG excess heat, modulated by louvers.

Frazier, William↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tailoring Early Concept Maturity Levels for Small Satellite Missions

The Concept Maturity Level (CML) framework has gained widespread acceptance as a process to assess mission concept maturity, particularly for early mission concepts in the formulation phase. Popularized by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory almost 15 years ago to evaluate large NASA science mission concepts, the CML method offers wide-ranging programmatic and technical evaluation criteria to assess and measure the progress of mission concepts at all stages of maturity. It also provides a useful tool to facilitate stakeholder relationships through effective engagement, interaction, and communication. The CML approach is modeled largely after the widespread Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale, a measure of how new technology progresses from early concept through to being operational at the mission flight system level. Tailoring the CML framework for small satellites allows for more relevant technical and programmatic evaluations for these missions. Given the diversity of small satellite mission objectives, cost constraints, complexity, and risk tolerance, this modified CML framework enables study teams and stakeholders to determine the appropriate CML fidelity to implement based upon the opportunity and strategic investment approach. A decision process flow method is proposed to guide teams through the logic of determining what CML fidelity to implement in evaluating small satellite mission concepts. The goal is to provide enhanced stakeholder engagement such that CML assessments are clearly articulated and understood early in the design study. This would allow for more appropriate application of CML methodology by study teams developing University led missions, technology demonstrations, commercial constellations, and more complex planetary science missions.

Concept Maturity Level↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts

Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized

ATAP↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise↗