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DOE OSTI2022

Geothermal Energy and Resilience in Arctic Countries

The eight Arctic countries - Iceland, Canada, Denmark (Greenland and the Faroe Islands) Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and the United States (Alaska) - have diverse energy systems, but can be split into two distinct groups based on energy characteristics. The first group includes systems in Europe (Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Iceland), which are heavily grid-connected. The second group includes the United States (Alaska), Canada, Russia, and Greenland, which have grid-connected energy systems in their more densely populated southern regions, but are also defined by the prevalence of remote microgrids. Energy sources for heat and power vary across grid-connected communities in the Arctic nations. The primary energy source for remote communities, on the other hand, is almost exclusively diesel. This is true for both heat and power. Despite these and other key distinctions, Arctic countries share many commonalities with regard to their energy systems. One is a fundamental need for heat. Heat and electric energy are linked in most communities - remote, rural, and urban - and those linked systems are increasingly vulnerable to disruptions. Several of the Arctic countries use baseload renewable energy resources for heat and power. Iceland uses geothermal and hydroelectric; Canada, the United States, Sweden, Norway, and Finland use hydroelectric. Utilization of baseload renewable energy resources on-site for combined heat and power appears to enhance the resilience of communities in Arctic countries with high penetration of those resources. On the other hand, reliance on diesel by remote communities in other Arctic countries may be amplifying vulnerabilities. Although geothermal energy is currently used in all eight Arctic countries, resources are poorly mapped, and details can be difficult to come by. Despite this, geothermal energy provides heat and sometimes electricity at both utility scales and at the microgrid scale. Geothermal electricity is produced in Iceland, Russia, and the United States (Alaska). Direct use of geothermal heat is used in Iceland, Russia, United States, Canada, and Norway. Geo-exchange is used in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Canada, and the United States. In this paper, we reframe geothermal heat and power systems as integrated energy systems, asking the question: are integrated geothermal energy systems - where available and economic - resilient solutions for communities in Arctic countries? We identify resilience attributes of integrated geothermal energy systems, with a focus on microgrids and small-scale applications. Based on the high-level, qualitative analysis presented in this paper, the answer appears to be yes. Further work should prioritize refining our understanding of geothermal resources in Arctic countries, because development of the most economic geothermal resources in Arctic countries has the potential to enhance the energy resilience of its residents, whether in a grid-connected or remote off-grid context.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Effects of the War in Ukraine on National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Missions

While the challenge from a risen and revisionist China may prove greater and more enduring, Russia’s war on Ukraine profoundly changes the strategic context, importance, and requirements of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) missions. The world changed as much in February of 2022 as it did in November of 1989 or December of 1991 , when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union fell apart. These changes will not likely be ephemeral. Russia is preparing for a long war and a prolonged period of isolation from and hostility toward the West. Although Russia has many political, economic, and military weaknesses, it retains the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Russia is therefore central to deterrence, arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear security issues. Furthermore, Moscow’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council affords it a veto potentially affecting all these issues.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1994

WTEC panel report on research submersibles and undersea technologies

This report covers research submersibles and related subsea technologies in Finland, France, Russia, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. Manned, teleoperated, and autonomous submersibles were of interest. The panel found that, in contrast to the United States, Europe is making substantial progress in cooperative and coordinated research in subsea technology, including the development of standards. France is a leader in autonomous vehicle technology. Because much less was known a priori about the technologies in Russia and Ukraine, there were more new findings in those countries than in those Western European nations visited. However, Russia and Ukraine have a sizeable (and currently underutilized) infrastructure in this field, including a highly educated and experienced manpower pool, impressive (in some cases unique) facilities for physical testing, extensive fleets of seagoing research vessels capable of long voyages, and state-of-the-art facilities for conducting oceanographic investigations. The panel visited newly-formed commercial companies associated with long-standing submersible R&D and production centers in Russia and Ukraine. So far, these new efforts are undercapitalized, and as such represent opportunities at very low cost for Western nations, as detailed in the site reports.

Seymore, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Pre-Flight Dark Forward Electrical Testing of the Mir Cooperative Solar Array

The Mir Cooperative Solar Array (MCSA) was developed jointly by the United States (US) and Russia to provide approximately 6 kW of photovoltaic power to the Russian space station Mir. After final assembly in Russia, the MCSA was shipped to the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in the summer of 1995 and launched to Mir in November 1995. Program managers were concerned of the potential for MCSA damage during the transatlantic shipment and the associated handling operations. To address this concern, NASA Lewis Research Center (LERC) developed an innovative dark-forward electrical test program to assess the gross electrical condition of each generator following shipment from Russia. The use of dark test techniques, which allow the array to remain in the stowed configuration, greatly simplifies the checkout of large area solar arrays. MCSA dark electrical testing was successfully performed at KSC in July 1995 following transatlantic shipment. Data from this testing enabled engineers to quantify the effects of potential MCSA physical damage that would degrade on-orbit electrical performance. In this paper, an overview of the principles and heritage of photovoltaic array dark testing is given. The specific MCSA dark test program is also described including the hardware, software, testing procedures and test results. The current-voltage (4) response of both solar cell circuitry and by-pass diode circuitry was obtained. To guide the development of dark test hardware, software and procedures, a dedicated FORTRAN computer code was developed to predict the dark 4 responses of generators with a variety of feasible damage modes. By comparing the actual test data with the predictions, the physical condition of the generator could be inferred. Based on this data analysis, no electrical short-circuits or open-circuits were detected. This suggested the MCSA did not sustain physical damage that affected electrical performance during handling and shipment from Russia to the US. Good agreement between the test data and computational predictions indicated MCSA electrical performance was amenable to accurate analysis and was well understood.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

SAMS Acceleration Measurements on Mir from June to November 1995

The NASA Microgravity Science and Applications Division (MSAD) sponsors science experiments on a variety of microgravity carriers, including sounding rockets, drop towers, parabolic aircraft, and Orbiter missions. The MSAD sponsors the Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS) to support microgravity science experiments with acceleration measurements to characterize the microgravity environment to which the experiments were exposed. The Principal Investigator Microgravity Services project at the NASA Lewis Research Center supports principal investigators of microgravity experiments as they evaluate the effects of varying acceleration levels on their experiments. In 1993, a cooperative effort was started between the United States and Russia involving science utilization of the Russian Mir space station by scientists from the United States and Russia. MSAD is currently sponsoring science experiments participating in the Shuttle-Mir Science Program in cooperation with the Russians on the Mir space station. Included in the complement of MSAD experiments and equipment is a SAMS unit In a manner similar to Orbiter mission support, the SAMS unit supports science experiments from the U.S. and Russia by measuring the microgravity environment during experiment operations. The initial SAMS supported experiment was a Protein Crystal Growth (PCG) experiment from June to November 1995. SAMS data were obtained during the PCG operations on Mir in accordance with the PCG Principal Investigator's requirements. This report presents an overview of the SAMS data recorded to support this PCG experiment. The report contains plots of the SAMS 100 Hz sensor head data as an overview of the microgravity environment, including the STS-74 Shuttle-Mir docking.

DeLombard, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2002

Development and Operations of the Astrophysics Data System

The Astrophysics Data System (ADS) was represented at the AAS meeting in San Diego with an oral talk and a demonstration. The demonstration was hugely successful, especially in light of the fact that the meeting was attended by about 1,200 Physics teachers. This was a group that we had no contact with before. They were very interested in the ADS. Having made contact with this group should help to further propagate knowledge about the ADS in the Physics community and bring it to the attention of young scientists. Two new mirror sites were established, one in India and in Russia. The site in India is fully operational, the site in Russia is waiting for the data tapes to be loaded. The preprint database is already functional. The mirror site in India is expected to become a full article mirror site soon. The mirror site in Russia is expected to become a partial article mirror site in the near future. The mirror site in China now has a full article mirror. This is the second full article mirror site after the one in Japan. The mirror site at the CDS in France is working on configuring disks for another full article mirror.

Murray, Stephen S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Development and Operations of the Astrophysics Data System

The ADS was represented at the AAS meeting in San Diego with an oral talk and a demonstration. The demonstration was hugely successful, especially in light of the fact that the meeting was attended by about 1,200 Physics teachers. This was a group that we had no contact with before. They were very interested in the ADS. Having made contact with this group should help to further propagate knowledge about the ADS in the Physics community and bring it to the attention of young scientists. Two new mirror sites were established, one in India and in Russia. The site in India is fully operational, the site in Russia is waiting for the data tapes to be loaded. The preprint database is already functional. The mirror site in India is expected to become a full article mirror site soon. The mirror site in Russia is expected to become a partial article mirror site in the near future. The mirror site in China now has a full article mirror. This is the second full article mirror site after the one in Japan. The mirror site at the CDS in France is working on configuring disks for another full article mirror.

Murray, Stephen S.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Shuttle and ISS Food Systems Management

Russia and the U.S. provide the current International Space Station (ISS) food system. Each country contributes half of the food supply in their respective flight food packaging. All of the packaged flight food is stowed in Russian provided containers, which interface with the Service Module galley. Each country accepts the other's flight worthiness inspections and qualifications. Some of the food for the first ISS crew was launched to ISS inside the Service Module in July of 2000, and STS-106 in September 2000 delivered more food to the ISS. All subsequent food deliveries will be made by Progress, the Russian re-supply vehicle. The U.S. will ship their portion of food to Moscow for loading onto the Progress. Delivery schedules vary, but the goal is to maintain at least a 45-day supply onboard ISS at all times. The shelf life for ISS food must be at least one year, in order to accommodate the long delivery cycle and onboard storage. Preservation techniques utilized in the US food system include dehydration, thermo stabilization, intermediate moisture, and irradiation. Additional fresh fruits and vegetables will be sent with each Progress and Shuttle flights as permitted by volume allotments. There is limited refrigeration available on the Service Module to store fresh fruits and vegetables. Astronauts and cosmonauts eat half U.S. and half Russian food. Menu planning begins 1 year before a planned launch. The flight crews taste food in the U.S. and in Russia and rate the acceptability. A preliminary menu is planned, based on these ratings and the nutritional requirements. The preliminary menu is then evaluated by the crews while training in Russia. Inputs from this evaluation are used to finalize the menu and flight packaging is initiated. Flight food is delivered 6 weeks before launch. The current challenge for the food system is meeting the nutritional requirements, especially no more than 10 mg iron, and 3500 mg sodium. Experience from Shuttle[Mir also indicated insufficient caloric intake for many crewmembers. Additional thermostabilized and irradiated foods have been developed for ISS to improve the ease of preparation and overall acceptability. Dehydrated foods offer limited advantage, since water must be delivered to ISS. An effort is underway to introduce other International Partner's food into the ISS food system. At first this will be one or two selected foods with the potential for more as the program matures. An increase in the variety of available foods would improve the overall acceptability. Additional galley capability will be required when the crew size increases on ISS. Anticipated improvements include freezers, refrigerators and microwave ovens. All of the ISS food development efforts are devoted to improving the food acceptability and subsequent consumption and mission success

Kloeris, Vickie↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA A-Train and Terra Observations of the 2010 Russian Wildfires

Wildfires raged throughout western Russia and parts of Eastern Europe during a persistent heat wave in the summer of 2010. Anomalously high surface temperatures (35 - 41 C) and low relative humidity (9 - 25 %) from mid- June to mid-August 2010 shown by analysis of radiosonde data from multiple sites in western Russia were ideal conditions for the wildfires to thrive. Measurements of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) over western Russian indicate persistent subsidence during the heat wave. Daily three-day back-trajectories initiated over Moscow reveal a persistent anticyclonic circulation for 18 days in August, coincident with the most intense period of fire activity observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). This unfortunate meteorological coincidence allowed transport of polluted air from the region of intense fires to Moscow and the surrounding area. We demonstrate that the 2010 Russian wildfires are unique in the record of observations obtained by remote-sensing instruments on-board NASA satellites: Aura and Aqua (part of the A-Train Constellation) and Terra. Analysis of the distribution of MODIS fire products and aerosol optical thickness (AOT), UV aerosol index (AI) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and total column carbon monoxide (CO) from Aqua s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) show that the region in the center of western Russia surrounding Moscow (52-58 deg N, 33 -43 deg E) is most severely impacted by wildfire emissions. Over this area, AIRS CO, OMI AI, and MODIS AOT are significantly enhanced relative to the historical satellite record during the first 18 days in August when the anti-cyclonic circulation persisted. By mid-August, the anti-cyclonic circulation was replaced with westerly transport over Moscow and vicinity. The heat wave

Witte, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The ART-XC Instrument on Board the SRG Mission

Spectrum Roentgen Gamma (SRG) is an X-ray astrophysical observatory, developed by Russia in collaboration with Germany. The mission will be launched in 2014 from Baikonur, by a Zenit rocket with a Fregat booster and placed in a 6-month-period halo orbit around L2. The scientific payload consists of two independent telescopes . a soft-x-ray survey instrument, eROSITA, being provided by Germany and a medium-x-ray-energy survey instrument ART-XC being developed by Russia. ART-XC will consist of seven independent, but co-aligned, telescope modules with seven corresponding cadmium-telluride focal plane detectors. Each will operate over the approximate energy range of 6- 30 keV, with an angular resolution of <1 ', a field of view of ~30 ' and an energy resolution about 10% at 14 keV. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will fabricate some of the mirror modules, to complement others fabricated by VNIIEF in Russia.

Pavlinksy, M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products

Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) pr↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Conditions of the Toll-Like Receptors System of the Human Innate Immunity Cells During the Long-Term Isolation

During long duration missions onboard the International Space Station (ISS), alterations in T cell function and plasma cytokine profiles have been observed. Recent studies involving pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) have established that adaptation of innate immunity to long duration space flight occurs through changes in signal PRRs, Toll-like receptors (TLRs). Despite the fact that fundamental research of PRR molecular biology is far from complete, there are an increasing number of arguments confirming the important role of this system in regulating the initial stages of the adaptive immune response, as well as in the formation of autoimmune and allergic diseases. Long duration isolation is widely used by NASA as an analog for space flight with previous missions including several Antarctic bases, an undersea research station (NEEMO), and other isolation chambers. ‘SIRIUS’ is a multi-compartment pressurized facility at the IMBP in Moscow, Russia, in which subjects will spend 8 months executing tasks similar to those performed by astronauts in space. Prolonged isolation studies like SIRIUS replicate many of the influences expected to occur during long duration spaceflight missions including isolation, stress, confinement, and living in remote conditions. The immune study to be performed on the upcoming SIRIUS mission is being led by Dr. Sergey Ponomarev at the Institute of Biomedical Problems in Moscow, Russia. The NASA JSC Immunology lab will provide analysis of immune cell function, serum cytokines and stress hormones, and salivary cortisol, cytokines, and viruses. This study will be conducted with SIRIUS subjects under the auspices of the parent program. The goal of the study is to evaluate the effect of the 8-month isolation mission on components of human innate immunity at the molecular and cellular level. Successful implementation and completion of this project will provide a unique assortment of new data, significantly expanding the current understanding of the molecular and cellular changes in TLRs during long-term isolation. We hypothesize that mission-like isolation in the Russian NEK facility, consisting of circadian misalignment, isolation, stress, and ‘station lifestyle’, will result in a pattern of immune dysregulation similar to that observed in astronauts onboard ISS. This pattern of alterations can be summarized as phenotypic changes (altered distribution of peripheral cytotoxic, central memory, CD8+ T cell subsets), reductions in T cell function, alterations in plasma cytokine profiles (increased inflammatory and certain chemokines), and reductions in mitogen stimulated cytokine profiles (spans Th1, Th2, Th17). We further hypothesize that these immune changes will correlate with the reactivation of latent herpesviruses (which persists during orbital flight), to be used as measurable adverse clinical manifestation or with other observed symptomology. The SIRIUS-21 mission began in November of 2021 and successfully concluded with the crew emerging in July of 2022. Currently, the logistics of shipping the samples from Russia to the United States is being organized.

Cody L Gutierrez↗

DOE OSTI2024

The 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Nuclear Supply Chains vs. Sanctions

The United States and European countries are unlikely to collectively approve of sanctions against Russian exports of nuclear fuel assemblies and uranium in the near term despite the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Rather than bearing the costs that cutting off Russian imports would have on domestic nuclear energy production, the United States and European countries are more likely to prefer developing alternative supply chains of nuclear fuel and enriched uranium to reduce dependence on Russian resources. This outlook is primarily based on two areas of evaluation: (1) comparison of the Russian-made reactor fuel supply chain within the European Union (EU) in 2014 following the annexation of Crimea and in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine, and (2) the dependence of France and the United States on Russia’s exports of enriched uranium. Additionally, the potential impacts to Kazakh uranium exports if trade routes for nuclear resources through Russia became unavailable were considered as an additional factor in the push for disentanglement from Russian nuclear resources. This work utilized BACI, a database of harmonized international trade data at the product level drawn from the United Nations Comtrade Database and created by the French international economics research institute CEPII.1 Comparisons of imports and exports were based on the trade value in U.S. dollars as reported in BACI instead of the quantity of the traded product. This evaluation only considers import and export data up until 2021, since the trade data for 2022 is incomplete within the Comtrade Database for several of the key countries presented in this work, including Australia, Canada, Namibia, Niger, and Russia.

Political science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Erratum to: Search for phenomena beyond the Standard Model in events with large b -jet multiplicity using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

In the original HTML version of this article, one affiliation of the author V. O. Tikhomirov was missing. He is affiliated to the following two affiliations: P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia and National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow, Russia. The original article has been corrected.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Structures of Cyber Competition in an Era of Major Power Rivalry

Over the past two decades, the cyber domain has emerged and evolved into a key strategic domain for nations across the globe. Security strategies are espoused by heads of state that focus on how to manage the increasingly enormous, crosscutting impact that the cyber domain has on national security across economic, military, intelligence, intellectual property, and countless other facets. These strategies frequently evolve, and even change entirely, as leaders adapt to new technologies and administrations change. Even if these strategies did not change at all, they would take inordinate amounts of time to effectively implement within the organizational structures of government. The time required to go from setting department and agency-level goals, to the time small teams have well-oiled processes and expertise to accomplish tactical objectives that meet the strategic vision is lengthy. With near certainty, by the time objectives and vision are implemented, the landscape, strategy, or both has changed entirely. While this churn will likely never cease due to the rapidly changing nature of the cyber domain, this problem raises an important question: can governmental structures be organized to rapidly adapt to changing cyber strategies? As offices responsible for particular missions in cyberspace shuffle about within the bureaucracy, are technical capabilities enabled or enhanced? No matter how advanced a particular technical capability is or how adept the staff is at solving problems, they will be ineffective if placed haphazardly within the organization: the right authorities may not exist for their office, the correct lines of interpersonal communication may not be established properly, or insufficient resources have not been allocated to effectively deploy a brilliant technical solution. This concept of organizational agility in the context of national cyber capabilities is important when taking into account the National Defense Strategy’s emphasis on cyber capability and the ability of the United States to compete and rapidly adapt to new challenges posed by rivals. As a nation, we are at a point where technology evolves rapidly enough to warrant thoughtful and nimble changes to the bureaucratic structures that support how cyber operations are carried out. Taking these questions and cross-comparing them to the organizational structures across China, Russia, and the United States provides for an interesting thought experiment. As non-democratic regimes, China and Russia have differing priorities and internal power dynamics than the United States and thus organize their governments differently. By combining known and broadcasted strategies of these nations with the observed technical capabilities demonstrated in the public domain, we can begin to see how organizational structures map to strategic goals and directly enable technical capabilities. Insight can be gained by introducing organizational structures into traditional analysis focusing solely around strategies and capabilities; additionally, otherwise unknown capabilities or intents might be discovered or inferred by analyzing organizational structures alone. Analyzing cyber operations from this oft-overlooked perspective could potentially provide useful insight and more concrete actions that can be undertaken to realize the National Defense Strategy’s goals.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

US Perspectives on the Conventional/Nuclear Interactions and the Impacts on Nuclear Escalation Risks and Future Arms Control Prospects

This short paper is organized around a few discrete questions. How have U.S. perspectives on conventional and nuclear interactions evolved in recent years? How have these changing perspectives shaped U.S. thinking on perceived nuclear escalation risks with Russia, both long standing and newly emerged? And finally, what do these U.S. perceptions of interactions and risks mean for future potential arms control either in the conventional or nuclear arena? The answers to these questions appear to show some promise for future work in this area. Conventional and nuclear interactions are increasing, and thus the two domains cannot be kept as deliberately or artificially separated as in the past. There is a growing mutual recognition regarding the interplay between conventional and nuclear capabilities in the strategic stability equation. There is also an increasingly shared recognition in the United States and Russia that nuclear escalation risks are likely to originate in conventional crises or conflict, placing an imperative on some form of conflict prevention procedures at the lower end of the spectrum. This requirement suggests some potential areas for risk reduction measures outside of those traditionally considered in conventional and nuclear arms control over the past several decades.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗