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At least 73 records · Page 4

Observations of high-time-resolution and size-resolved aerosol chemical composition and microphysics in the central Arctic: implications for climate-relevant particle properties

Abstract. Aerosols play a critical role in the Arctic's radiative balance, influencing solar radiation and cloud formation. Limited observations in the central Arctic leave gaps in understanding aerosol dynamics year-round, affecting model predictions of climate-relevant aerosol properties. Here, we present the first annual high-time-resolution observations of submicron aerosol chemical composition in the central Arctic during the Arctic Ocean 2018 (AO2018) and the 2019–2020 Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expeditions. Seasonal variations in the aerosol mass concentrations and chemical composition in the central Arctic were found to be driven by typical Arctic seasonal regimes and resemble those of pan-Arctic land-based stations. Organic aerosols dominated the pristine summer, while anthropogenic sulfate prevailed in autumn and spring under haze conditions. Ammonium, which impacts aerosol acidity, was consistently less abundant, relative to sulfate, in the central Arctic compared to lower latitudes of the Arctic. Cyclonic (storm) activity was found to have a significant influence on aerosol variability by enhancing emissions from local sources and the transport of remote aerosol. Local wind-generated particles contributed up to 80 % (20 %) of the cloud condensation nuclei population in autumn (spring). While the analysis presented herein provides the current central Arctic aerosol baseline, which will serve to improve climate model predictions in the region, it also underscores the importance of integrating short-timescale processes, such as seasonal wind-driven aerosol sources from blowing snow and open leads/ocean in model simulations. This is particularly important, given the decline in mid-latitude anthropogenic emissions and the increase in local ones.

Heutte, Benjamin (ORCID:0000000173727460)↗

Valuing Maintenance Strategies for Fusion Plants as Part of a Future Electricity Grid

Scheduled maintenance is likely to be lengthy and therefore consequential for the economics of fusion power plants. The maintenance strategy that maximizes the economic value of a plant depends on internal factors such as the cost and durability of the replaceable components, the frequency and duration of the maintenance blocks, and the external factors of the electricity system in which the plant operates. Here, this paper examines the value of fusion power plants with various maintenance properties in a decarbonized United States Eastern Interconnection circa 2050. Seasonal variations in electricity supply and demand mean that certain times of year, particularly spring to early summer, are best for scheduled maintenance. Seasonality has two important consequences. First, the value of a plant can be 15% higher than what one would naively expect if value were directly proportional to its availability. Second, in some cases, replacing fractions of a component in shorter maintenance blocks spread over multiple years is better than replacing it all at once during a longer outage, even through the overall availability of the plant is lower in the former scenario.

power plant, maintenance, seasonality, electricity↗

What explains the year-to-year variation in growing season timing of boreal black spruce forests?

Amplified climate warming in high latitudes is expected to affect growing season timing of the vast boreal biome. It is unclear whether the presence of permafrost (perennially frozen ground) might have an influence on changes in growing season timing. Here, this study examined how different environmental variables explained, either directly or indirectly, the variation in growing season timing of boreal forest stands with and without permafrost. We expected that environmental variables explaining the variation in growing season timing differed or had different explanatory power depending on permafrost presence or absence. The growing season was delineated from daily gross primary productivity (GPP) time series derived from 40 site-year data of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange measured with eddy covariance techniques over five black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.])-dominated boreal forest stands in North America. In permafrost-free forest stands, a combination of start in canopy ‘green-up’ in spring and the timing of air and soil temperature increasing above freezing explained the start-of-season (SOS GPP ). Results from commonality analysis and structural equation modeling suggest that canopy ‘green-up’ and air temperature directly affected SOS GPP in permafrost-free forest stands. In addition, soil temperature acted as mediator for an indirect effect of air temperature on SOS GPP . In contrast, none of the environmental variables, or their combination, explained the variation in SOS GPP in forest stands with permafrost. The explanatory power of environmental variables was more consistent regarding the end-of-season (EOS GPP ). In both, forest stands with and without permafrost, EOS GPP was directly explained by mean soil water content in the fall and the first day of continuous snowpack formation. A better understanding how environmental variables control SOS GPP and EOS GPP in forest stands with and without permafrost will help to refine parameterizations of the boreal biome in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Tracking Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Photosynthetic Downregulation in Response to Water Stress at a Temperate Deciduous Forest

Abstract The understanding and modeling of photosynthetic dynamics affected by climate variability can be highly uncertain. In this paper, we examined a well‐characterized eddy covariance site in a drought‐prone temperate deciduous broadleaf forest combining tower measurements and satellite observations. We find that an increase in spring temperature usually leads to enhanced spring gross primary production (GPP), but a GPP reduction in late growing season due to water limitation. We evaluated how well a coupled fluorescence‐photosynthesis model (SCOPE) and satellite data sets track the interannual and seasonal variations of tower GPP from 2007 to 2016. In SCOPE, a simple stress factor scaling of Vcmax as a linear function of observed predawn leaf water potential ( ψ pd ) shows a good agreement between modeled and measured interannual variations in both GPP and solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment‐2 (GOME‐2). The modeled and satellite‐observed changes in SIF yield are ~30% smaller than corresponding changes in light use efficiency (LUE) under severe stress, for which a common linear SIF to GPP scaling would underestimate the stress reduction in GPP. Overall, GOME‐2 SIF tracks interannual tower GPP variations better than satellite vegetations indices (VIs) representing canopy “greenness.” However, it is still challenging to attribute observed SIF variations unequivocally to greenness or physiological changes due to large GOME‐2 footprint. Higher‐resolution SIF data sets (e.g., TROPOMI) already show the potential to well capture the downregulation of late‐season GPP and could pave the way to better disentangle canopy structural and physiological changes in the future.

He, Liyin↗

Arctic Ocean annual high in ${{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}$ could shift from winter to summer

Long-term stress on marine organisms from ocean acidification will differ between seasons. As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) increases, so do seasonal variations of ocean CO 2 partial pressure (p co 2 ), causing summer and winter long-term trends to diverge. Trends may be further influenced by an unexplored factor—changes in the seasonal timing of p co 2 . In Arctic Ocean surface waters, the observed timing is typified by a winter high and summer low because biological effects dominate thermal effects. Here we show that 27 Earth system models simulate similar timing under historical forcing but generally project that the summer low, relative to the annual mean, eventually becomes a high across much of the Arctic Ocean under mid-to-high-level CO 2 emissions scenarios. Often the greater increase in summer p co 2 , although gradual, abruptly inverses the chronological order of the annual high and low, a phenomenon not previously seen in climate-related variables. The main cause is the large summer sea surface warming from earlier retreat of seasonal sea ice. Warming and changes in other drivers enhance this century’s increase in extreme summer p co 2 by 29 ± 9 per cent compared with no change in driver seasonalities. Thus the timing change worsens summer ocean acidification, which in turn may lower the tolerance of endemic marine organisms to increasing summer temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation–climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C 3 annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland annual burned area was driven by variation in ecosystem productivity. Our study advances the modeling of grassy ecosystems in ESMs by establishing the importance of grass allometry and plant phenology and mortality in driving C 3 annual grassland seasonal dynamics and fire regime. The calibrated annual grass allometry and biophysical traits presented can be applied in future studies to project climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks in annual grass-dominant ecosystems under global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Variations in the Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over Indian Monsoon Zone

Here, this study examines cloud and precipitation properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Indian monsoon zone using 6 years of high-resolution satellite-based tracking data. MCSs exhibit strong regional and seasonal variations, peaking during the summer monsoon (June–September). Concentrated along a southeast-northwest band of the monsoon trough, MCS contribute 40%–70% of total precipitation and predominantly move westward at an average speed of 6.3 m s -1 . Long-lived MCSs (> 40 hr), although 10 times less frequent than short-lived MCSs (5–20 hr), produce 2–3 times more rainfall. Longer MCS lifespans and higher rainfall are associated with stronger deep-layer wind shear and enhanced lower free-tropospheric moisture at initiation. Land and ocean MCSs exhibit distinct diurnal cycles. Most land-based MCSs initiate around 16 LT and mature at 18 LT, whereas Bay of Bengal (BoB) MCSs initiate between 04 and 06 LT and peak by 14 LT. Convective precipitations from MCSs significantly surpasses that from non-MCSs systems, emphasizing their critical role in intense monsoon rainfall. Short- and long-lived MCSs showed distinct lifecycle evolution. Long-lived MCSs over the BoB show 37% larger cold-cloud shields, 44% larger precipitation feature areas, and 33% higher rain rates than their land counterparts, yielding 67% more total rainfall. These BoB MCSs also grow faster and experience more frequent cloud mergers early in their lifecycle. These findings offer critical insights into monsoonal MCSs lifecycle evolution, providing observational constraints for improving model simulations of monsoonal convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DSCOVR/EPIC-derived global hourly and daily downward shortwave and photosynthetically active radiation data at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution

Downward shortwave radiation (SW) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) play crucial roles in Earth system dynamics. Spaceborne remote sensing techniques provide a unique means for mapping accurate spatiotemporally continuous SW–PAR, globally. However, any individual polar-orbiting or geostationary satellite cannot satisfy the desired high temporal resolution (sub-daily) and global coverage simultaneously, while integrating and fusing multisource data from complementary satellites/sensors is challenging because of co-registration, intercalibration, near real-time data delivery and the effects of discrepancies in orbital geometry. The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on board the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), launched in February 2015, offers an unprecedented possibility to bridge the gap between high temporal resolution and global coverage and characterize the diurnal cycles of SW–PAR globally. In this study, we adopted a suite of well-validated data-driven machine-learning models to generate the first global land products of SW–PAR, from June 2015 to June 2019, based on DSCOVR/EPIC data. The derived products have high temporal resolution (hourly) and medium spatial resolution (0.1°×0.1°), and they include estimates of the direct and diffuse components of SW–PAR. We used independently widely distributed ground station data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD), NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program to evaluate the performance of our products, and we further analyzed and compared the spatiotemporal characteristics of the derived products with the benchmarking Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Synoptic (CERES) data. We found both the hourly and daily products to be consistent with ground-based observations (e.g., hourly and daily total SWs have low biases of -3.96 and -0.71 W m -2 and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 103.50 and 35.40 W m -2 , respectively). The developed products capture the complex spatiotemporal patterns well and accurately track substantial diurnal, monthly, and seasonal variations in SW–PAR when compared to CERES data. They provide a reliable and valuable alternative for solar photovoltaic applications worldwide and can be used to improve our understanding of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the terrestrial water, carbon and energy fluxes at various spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast - Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features, diverse cloud types, and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species that originate from many sources regionally and from other continents. As Part 1 of a 2-part paper series, this work provides a characterization of quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, based on satellite observations, ground-based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of both natural and anthropogenic sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport on their vertical profiles. Analysis of long-term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities. The results can inform current and future lines of research for the region.

Corral, Andrea↗

Where do the fish go in winter? A year of observing seasonal changes in Sequim Bay’s nearshore fish community

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments. eDNA offers a non-invasive, cost-effective, and scalable way to detect aquatic species. It is appealing in environments where traditional methods are limited by access or visibility, especially in complex or sensitive habitats such as tidal channels and other marine energy sites. Before eDNA can be fully relied upon, we must verify its accuracy against established methods, like underwater photography. In this study, we collected eDNA samples and concurrently deployed a 360-degree camera near the floating dock of PNNL-Sequim in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month for twelve consecutive months. During deployments, the camera remained on the seafloor for several hours overlapping slack tide and captured time-lapse photographs at ten second intervals. Counts and identifications of fish species observed in the images were used to calculate monthly Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices. These values were compared across the months using a Kruskal-Wallis test paired with a Conover-Iman post-hoc test. Cliff’s Delta was also calculated to quantify the effect size of the monthly differences. No fish were observed from December through April, likely due to seasonal behavior changes within the local fish community. Fish returned to the shoreline in May, with the greatest diversity and evenness recorded in September. These findings reveal substantial seasonal variation in nearshore fish communities. Many monthly comparisons were found to contain statistically significant differences within the diversity and evenness, and even more were found to have large effect sizes, signifying large ecological changes throughout the seasons. The absence of fish observed during the winter months is a key outcome of this survey that will hopefully be reflected in the eDNA results still to come, which would help validate the eDNA approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal trends in photosynthesis and leaf traits in scarlet oak

Understanding seasonal variation in photosynthesis is important for understanding and modelling plant productivity. Here, we used shotgun sampling to examine physiological, structural and spectral leaf traits of upper canopy, sun-exposed leaves in Quercus coccinea Münchh (scarlet oak) across the growing season in order to understand seasonal trends, explore the mechanisms underpinning physiological change, and investigate the impact of extrapolating measurements from a single date to the whole season. We tested the hypothesis that photosynthetic rates and capacities would peak at the summer solstice i.e., at the time of peak photoperiod. Contrary to expectations, our results reveal a late-season peak in both photosynthetic capacity and rate before the expected sharp decrease at the start of senescence. This late-season maximum occurred after the higher summer temperatures and VPD, and was correlated with the recovery of leaf water content and increased stomatal conductance. We modelled photosynthesis at the top of the canopy and found that the simulated results closely tracked the maximum carboxylation capacity of Rubisco. For both photosynthetic capacity and modelled top-of-canopy photosynthesis, the maximum value was therefore not observed at the summer solstice. Rather, in each case the measurements at and around the solstice were close to the overall seasonal mean, with values later in the season leading to deviations from the mean by up to 41% and 52% respectively. Overall, we found that the expected Gaussian pattern of photosynthesis was not observed. We conclude that an understanding of species- and environment-specific changes in photosynthesis across the season is essential for correct estimation of seasonal photosynthetic capacity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimators and Fusers for Fiber Delay Estimation Using Environmental Measurements

The properties of deployed network fiber are affected by environmental factors due to their exposure to the elements. Particularly for quantum networks, the resultant delay variations may have significant impacts due to the extreme sensitivity of synchronization, coincidence counting, and other critical operations. In this paper, the delays of 15 km aerial-inground fiber connections are measured, and effects due to temperature, humidity and wind speed are analyzed over multiple periods spanning four seasons of a year. Machine learning methods are first utilized to reveal surprisingly pronounced effects of humidity on the delay, in addition to the expected temperature and its seasonal variations. Estimator and fusion methods are developed to estimate the delay using temperature, humidity and wind speed measurements, by utilizing smooth Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and nonsmooth Ensemble of Trees (EOT) methods. Measurements from winter and summer periods are temporally fused using twelve different methods, and eight methods provide estimates for the delay throughout the year with median test errors under 1.28%. The results reveal distinct temperature-humidity trends across the seasons, and the ability of estimator and temporal fusion methods to exploit them for estimating the delay. These results constitute a case study of machine learning analytical results, wherein generalization equations explain the performance of various estimator and fuser methods.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗

Using respiration quotients to track changing sources of soil respiration seasonally and with experimental warming

Developing a more mechanistic understanding of soil respiration is hampered by the difficulty in determining the contribution of different organic substrates to respiration and in disentangling autotrophic-versus-heterotrophic and aerobic-versus-anaerobic processes. Here, we use a relatively novel tool for better understanding soil respiration: the apparent respiration quotient (ARQ). The ARQ is the amount of CO 2 produced in the soil divided by the amount of O 2 consumed, and it changes according to which organic substrates are being consumed and whether oxygen is being used as an electron acceptor. We investigated how the ARQ of soil gas varied seasonally, by soil depth, and by in situ experimental warming ( +4 ° C) in a coniferous-forest whole-soil-profile warming experiment over 2 years. We then compared the patterns in ARQ to those of soil δ 13 CO 2 . Our measurements showed strong seasonal variations in ARQ, from ≈0.9 during the late spring and summer to ≈0.7 during the winter. This pattern likely reflected a shift from respiration being fueled by oxidized substrates like sugars and organic acids derived from root and root respiration during the growing season to more reduced substrates such as lipids and proteins derived from microbial necromass during the winter. This interpretation was supported by δ 13 CO 2 values, which were lower, like lipids, in the winter and higher, like sugars, in the summer. Furthermore, experimental warming significantly changed how both ARQ and δ 13 CO 2 responded to soil temperature. Wintertime ARQ and δ 13 CO 2 values were higher in heated than in control plots, probably due to the warming-driven increase in microbial activity that may have utilized oxidized carbon substrates, while growing-season values were lower in heated plots. Experimental warming and phenology change the sources of soil respiration throughout the soil profile. The sensitivity of ARQ to these changes demonstrates its potential as a tool for disentangling the biological sources contributing to soil respiration.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Algal Feedstock Logistics and Handling

The project aims to study wet, anaerobic storage to mitigate seasonal variation in algae productivity to reduce the risk of feedstock loos prior to conversion and to study how to enable the storage period to be used to add value to algae biomass without affecting the final fuel's yield or quality. This project will take the approach of engaging in stability research that addresses seasonal variability in production and that which provides opportunities to add value to algae biomass prior to conversion as well as to gain a fundamental understanding of post-harvest algae physiology to support cultivation gains.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗