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At least 73 records · Page 4

Predicting Well-Connected SEP Events from Observations of Solar EUVs and Energetic Protons

This study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.

Nunez, Marlon↗

SEPS solar array design and technology evaluation

The technology developments required and a preliminary design of a lightweight 25 kW solar array for the solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) have been defined. The requirements for a 65 W/Kg SEPS solar array system requires significant component weight reductions over present state-of-the-art flexible solar arrays in both electrical and structural-mechanical designs. A requirement for operation from 0.3 au to 6.0 au presents a wide range of temperature environments as well as severe combined thermal/vacuum/UV radiation environments. Additional requirements are capability for partial array retraction operation, and capability for full retraction and automatic preloading for survival of the Shuttle reentry environment. An assessment of current lightweight flexible solar array technology is made against the SEPS solar array requirements and new technology requirements are defined. A preliminary design and the operating characteristics of a flat-fold solar array system meeting the SEPS requirements is presented. A full-width, 10-ft-tall functional array model, including representative welded electrical modules and a model astromast, was fabricated and tested.

Elms, R. V., Jr.↗

Mission options for the first SEPS application

Missions to comets and asteroids are primary candidates for Solar Electric Propulsion System (SEPS) applications. NASA estimates that the first SEPS mission might be launched as early as 1988. This paper presents mission opportunities available for launches between 1988 and early 1991 and discusses the performance capabilities of the current SEPS. Use of a Shuttle Two-Stage IUS and/or a Shuttle Wide Tank Centaur launch vehicle is assumed in the performance assessment. The list of possible first SEPS missions consists of nine missions to comets of primary interest and examples of multiple asteroid rendezvous missions. Both an earth crossing asteroid and a main belt asteroid are considered as first possible targets in the multiple asteroid rendezvous examples. Mission opportunity and performance maps for Eros and Anteros are presented which provide exact performance data and optimal launch and arrival dates for any launch year.

Yen, C.-W. L.↗

SEP Mission Design Space for Mars Orbiters

The advancement of solar-electric propulsion (SEP) technologies and larger, light-weight solar arrays offer a tremendous advantage to Mars orbiters in terms of both mass and timeline flexibility. These advantages are multiplied for round-trip orbiters (e.g. potential Mars sample return) where a large total Delta V would be required. In this paper we investigate the mission design characteristics of mission concepts utilizing various combinations and types of SEP thrusters, solar arrays, launch vehicles, launch dates, arrival dates, etc. SEP allows for greater than 50% more mass delivered and launch windows of months to years. We also present the SEP analog to the ballistic Porkchop plot - the "Bacon" plot.

Woolley, Ryan C.↗

Human Cargo Resupply Logistics at Mars Using 150kW SEP Tug Cyclers

The ultimate goal of the Evolvable Mars Campaign is to build up a sustainable outpost at Mars that would be continually staffed with rotating crews. During this stage of human Mars exploration, it would be necessary to provision the crews with equipment and supplies both before and during their missions. In this paper, we study the use of 150 kW reusable SEP tugs as a means to deliver elements both to orbit and to the surface. The SEP tugs would make use of technology currently being developed for the proposed Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission (ARRM). They would also be used to deliver food and supplies to sustain the crews similar to resupply missions for the International Space Station. The SEP tugs envisioned would be staged at a quasi-stable Lunar Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO). The tugs would then mate with cargo vessels and xenon propellant being delivered by an SLS launch vehicle and continue on to Mars orbit where the cargo is delivered and the SEP tug returns to NRO to repeat the process. It was found that it is more efficient to deliver surface cargo via direct launch and entry versus using the tug cycler. Thousands of optimized low-thrust trajectories were simulated in order to create “Bacon plots” (like porkchop plots, but for low thrust transfers) in order to map out potential trajectories for dates from 2039 to 2052. This study maps out the buildup of a surface outpost as well as the necessary orbital and surface resupply launches in order to maintain it. In the steady state, a cadence of 9 cargo launches is required every 4 years to sustain the human outpost.

Post, Kevin↗

Implications of current SEP mission performance data on planning exploration of comets and asteroids.

The most comprehensive performance data base currently available for SEP comet and asteroid rendezvous missions has been synthesized and reduced into forms allowing evaluation of primary mission planning parameters. These data are based on utilization of the Shuttle with a Centaur injection stage and a SEP system having a 3000-sec specific impulse. The analysis indicates that a SEP vehicle system designed at a power level of around 20 kW with a system operating life of three years, offers the capability for achieving rendezvous missions to almost all comet and asteroid targets expected to be of interest in the 1980s. This degree of mission selection flexibility is desirable for a comprehensive program of small body exploration.

Allen, L. C.↗

Mission roles for the Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS) with the space transportation system. Volume 1: Executive summary

A study was conducted to determine the characteristics of solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) for the space transportation system. Emphasis is placed on the rationale leading to the concepts for the development and operations program which enhances the cost effectiveness of the SEPS operating with the space transportation system. The approach in describing design concepts and configurations is concerned with the decision controlling factors and selection criteria. The mission roles for the SEPS in accomplishing proposed space activities are defined.

Hammock, D. M.↗

Design synthesis of the SEPS

This paper summarizes the most current configuration of the Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS) design resulting from the synthesis of key tradeoff analyses. The baseline SEPS is a 21-kW propulsion-power vehicle using the Shuttle/Interim Upper Stage (IUS) launch vehicle for planetary and geosynchronous missions. The trade analyses supporting the baseline configuration include ion thruster array pattern, solar array stowage concepts, and number of thrusters and power processors (PP). In addition, an integrated thermal control and structural system was optimized and designed to meet flight loads and dynamics requirements. Payload provisions, mercury propellant refueling, and design compatibility of the SEPS and Shuttle/IUS are presented.

Horio, S. P.↗

Study of SEP solar array modifications

The feasibility of modifying the solar electric propulsion (SEP) 66 watt/kilogram, 12.5 kilowatt solar array blanket design to incorporate ultra-low mass blanket technology and to generate conceptual design data by modifying the SEP solar array design to 17.5kW power output was performed. Five modified designs were developed, which substituted present SEP solar array design components with one or more of 50 micron thick solar cells, 75 micron cell coverglasses, and a different blanket substrate developed by GE. A parametric analysis was performed to determine the solar array mast least weight and blanket tension required to maintain a minimum natural frequency of 0.04 Hz. The solar array wing assembly weights and power outputs were calculated, and preliminary cost estimates for flight hardware development, fabrication and qualification were made for each case studied.

Antonides, G. J.↗

Prospects for enhancing SEP array performance

Three advanced blanket design models, all employing the OAST thin cell, were developed for potential incorporation into the SEP array. The beginning of life (BOL) specific power of the these blankets ranges from 180 to 660 W/kg. Coupling these blanket designs to the baseline SEP array structure yields array specific powers of from 90 to 200 W/kg. It is shown that certain modifications to the SEP array structure, coupled with the advanced blanket designs, could allow the BOL specific power to reach approximately 250 W/kg.

Scott-Monck, J. A.↗

Small velocity changes using a SEP spacecraft

The Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) system is designed to deliver large payloads using extended thrusting periods. However, for certain classes of missions, it would be desirable to also use the low thrust propulsion system to impart the small velocity changes typically required to control an orbit in the vicinity of the target body. This paper examines the characteristics and capabilities of using an example SEP system to apply small velocity changes in arbitrary directions. Formulas are developed and examples presented for the rotation and translation which results when the ion thrusters are used to make large turns about all three of the spacecraft axes. This data is then used to propose various techniques for achieving arbitrary velocity changes. While still in a formative stage, the results may be useful in both the design of SEP spacecraft and formulation of future missions.

Jones, J. B.↗

Software-Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model

The Software Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model is described which was developed at JPL. SEPS is a dynamic simulation model of the software project development process. It uses the feedback principles of system dynamics to simulate the dynamic interactions among various software life cycle development activities and management decision making processes. The model is designed to be a planning tool to examine tradeoffs of cost, schedule, and functionality, and to test the implications of different managerial policies on a project's outcome. Furthermore, SEPS will enable software managers to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of software project development and perform postmodern assessments.

Lin, C. Y.↗

Angular Distributions of Fe/O From Wind: New Insight Into SEP Transport

We examine the angular distributions of He, O, and Fe in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events measured on the Wind spacecraft. We report for the first time, that in a fixed velocity interval, Fe/O is often larger for particles flowing sunward along the magnetic field than for particles flowing outward from the Sun in many SEP events. This occurs because the anisotropy for O exceeds that for Fe, even though both species are streaming outward. There are no examples of events for which the outward Fe/O dominates. The behavior of Fe and O conflicts with the expectations of simple diffusion theory, that angular distributions should be independent of species. It also seems to conflict with the idea that energetic Fe scatters less than O of the same velocity. However, preliminary modeling suggests that the presence of a reflecting magnetic boundary beyond 1 AU, together with the increased scattering of O over Fe due to proton generated Alfven waves, can explain the direction and magnitude of the effect. These observations add a new dimension to the study of SEP transport.

Reames, D. V.↗

The Roles of Flares and Shocks in determining SEP Abundances

We examine solar energetic particle (SEP) event-averaged abundances of Fe relative to O and intensity versus time profiles at energies above 25 MeV/nucleon using the SIS instrument on ACE. These data are compared with solar wind conditions during each event and with estimates of the strength of the associated shock based on average travel times to 1 AU. We find that the majority of events with an Fe to 0 abundance ratio greater than two times the average 5-12 MeV/nuc value for large SEP events (0.134) occur in the western hemisphere. Furthermore, in most of these Fe-rich events the profiles peak within 12 hours of the associated flare, suggesting that some of the observed interplanetary particles are accelerated in these flares. The vast majority of events with Fe/O below 0.134 are influenced by interplanetary shock acceleration. We suggest that variations in elemental composition in SEP events mainly arise from the combination of flare particles and shock acceleration of these particles and/or the ambient medium.

Cane, H. V.↗

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗

SEP thrust subsystem performance sensitivity analysis

This is a two-part report on solar electric propulsion (SEP) performance sensitivity analysis. The first part describes the preliminary analysis of the SEP thrust system performance for an Encke rendezvous mission. A detailed description of thrust subsystem hardware tolerances on mission performance is included together with nominal spacecraft parameters based on these tolerances. The second part describes the method of analysis and graphical techniques used in generating the data for Part 1. Included is a description of both the trajectory program used and the additional software developed for this analysis. Part 2 also includes a comprehensive description of the use of the graphical techniques employed in this performance analysis.

Atkins, K. L.↗

Low cost computer subsystem for the Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS)

The Solar Electric Propulsion Stage (SEPS) subsystem which consists of the computer, custom input/output (I/O) unit, and tape recorder for mass storage of telemetry data was studied. Computer software and interface requirements were developed along with computer and I/O unit design parameters. Redundancy implementation was emphasized. Reliability analysis was performed for the complete command computer sybsystem. A SEPS fault tolerant memory breadboard was constructed and its operation demonstrated.

Source record↗

SEPS guidance and navigation autonomy selection via mission analysis

A systematic rationale for selecting a cost-effective guidance and navigation (G & N) autonomy level for the solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS) vehicle is developed. After a definition of autonomy levels, a mission analysis is performed for representative SEPS missions using realistic G & N sensor hardware. Cost data for fabricating, integrating and refurbishing onboard avionics hardware and the ground costs corresponding to each autonomy level are generated. Results are presented that indicate performance of various G & N sensor hardware sets and the dominating factors which influence G & N autonomy level selection.

Causey, W.↗