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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Photon excess from dark matter and neutrino scattering at MiniBooNE and MicroBooNE

We propose new solutions to MiniBooNE electronlike excess and based on interactions involving light dark matter and/or neutrinos, that is also consistent with the photonlike excess at MicroBooNE. The novelty of our proposal lies in the utilization of a photon arising from 2-to-3 scattering processes between a nucleus/nucleon and a neutrino and/or dark matter via exchanges of light mediators. We find that viable regions exist in the coupling and mass parameter space of the mediators and light dark matter that can simultaneously explain the observed excesses and remain consistent with current experimental constraints. We further highlight that these scenarios can be tested with upcoming data from various ongoing experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Revealing the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Landslide via Integrated Analysis of Pristine Apollo 17 Soil Core 73001/2

The “light mantle” deposit at the base of South Massif in the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Valley was a primary science target for the Apollo 17 exploration. The possibility that it was a landslide triggered by ejecta from Tycho Crater is critical for establishing the age of Tycho and constraining recent lunar impact chronology; however, the mechanism of emplacement of the deposit has recently been questioned. The newly opened 73001/73002 double drive tube from Station 3 sampled 70.6 cm deep into the regolith and represents the first stratigraphic section of an extraterrestrial landslide deposit returned to Earth. Here we provide an overview of the stratigraphy of the 73001/73002 core based on top to bottom variations revealed by coordinated laboratory analyses and explore constraints on the emplacement of the light mantle deposit. Briefly, the upper ∼10 cm of 73002 contains a disturbed zone from space weathering and emplacement of ejecta from a nearby crater that excavated and ejected basaltic material. Below 10 cm is a nearly uniform unit of immature regolith. These data support a single event for the emplacement of the deposit at this location, followed by weathering and mixing of materials from nearby crater ejecta in the upper 10 cm. Slight variations in chemistry and clast components may reflect the relative stratigraphy of the South Massif slope, with material toward the bottom of 73001 originating from lower slopes and material from higher up in the core representing regolith from higher up the South Massif slopes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A dual dynamic shutter system for accelerating ion irradiation sample throughput via lateral gas implantation gradients

Ion irradiation for material performance testing is limited due to its serial nature, which allows for only one value of the implantation (appm) versus dose (dpa) parameter space to be explored for each ion and experiment at a time. While ion irradiation can accelerate the process by up to three orders of magnitude compared to neutron irradiation experiments, the sample throughput for ion irradiation remains relatively low. To address these limitations, a novel capability has been developed at the Michigan Ion Beam Laboratory (MIBL), enabling for the creation of single- and two-dimensional lateral ion implantation gradients using recently installed motorized-controlled ion-beam shutters. This advancement can generate a wide scope of the two-dimensional (H+, He2+) implantation parameter space within a single sample. Integration of this new capability now allows for dual- and triple-ion beam experiments to be performed with full user control over not only the ion implantation depth, but also laterally across the sample by imposing ion implantation concentration gradients, thus providing researchers with a high-throughput means for material testing under various irradiation conditions. Furthermore, recent improvements in MIBL's microbeam ion-beam analysis (IBA) target station now allow for probing these concentration gradients in irradiated alloys with exceptional spatial resolution, down to 10 µm. These two approaches promise to significantly improve ion irradiation capabilities and increase the sample throughput by several orders of magnitude. The application of the shutter technique plus the subsequent microbeam characterization of the imposed implantation gradients are showcased by two proof-of-principle ion-irradiated experiments, one performed on single-crystal Si and the other on the fusion-candidate alloy F82H-IEA. These advancements mark a substantial leap in ion-beam technology, offering researchers a robust, high-throughput method to efficiently investigate candidate alloys with high technological readiness for both advanced fission and fusion reactor applications, in a time- and cost-effective manner.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

PFAS Removal by Ion Exchange Resins: Background and Knowledge Gaps with Respect to the Hanford Site

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been a rising concern for the past two decades, with the United States Department of Defense and Environmental Protection Agency investing millions of dollars in research into remediation and clean-up technologies. Due to the environmental persistence, toxicity, biological uptake, and ongoing changes in both federal and state regulatory space, understanding the fate and transport of PFAS compounds has been of growing concern to the US Department of Energy (DOE). The DOE’s Hanford Site is investigating historical use of PFAS and will be doing site characterization for PFAS. Thus, PFAS have not yet been identified as a contaminant concern in regulatory documents. Based on historical records that mention the discharge of aqueous film-forming foam containing PFAS and having on-site fire stations (a risk factor for PFAS contamination), it seems likely that environmental releases of PFAS may have occurred. Pump and treat (P&T) remediation is the selected remedy for multiple groundwater contaminant plumes at Hanford. These P&T systems use ion exchange (IX) as a component of aboveground treatment, with the specific resins depending on the target contaminants. There is potential that these IX resins may be able to remove PFAS from groundwater, but investigation is needed to understand affinity/selectivity and removal capacity given the groundwater composition and the operating conditions. This report provides background on PFAS uses and chemistry, then provides a review of IX resin applications for PFAS, identifying knowledge gaps. Recommendations are provided regarding research needed to address knowledge gaps and acquire information needed to propose IX as a future PFAS remediation technology at the Hanford Site, as well as other U.S. Department of Energy sites. Generally, PFAS compounds are fluorinated substances that contain at least one fully fluorinated methyl or methylene carbon – with a few noted exceptions, any chemical with at least a perfluorinated methyl group (–CF3) or a perfluorinated methylene group (–CF2–) is a PFAS. These chemical compounds are characterized as non-biodegradable, non-reactive, non-photolytic, and hydrolysis resistant. This makes them highly recalcitrant within the environment, however polyfluoroalkyl materials are less recalcitrant as the carbon chains contain C–H bonds which are more easily broken than carbon – fluorine (C–F) bonds. The backbone carbon structures are commonly punctuated with a head group, the most well-known of them are perfluorooctanesulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid, which possess a sulfonate and a carboxylate group, respectively. IX resins are marketed for the removal of PFAS from water systems and industrial water, however, the mechanism of removal is not as well understood as for anion or cation removal. A better understanding of the mechanism of removal would enable the development of IX resins that have improved specificity for PFAS removal. Four knowledge gaps were identified: 1) the effect of dissolved ions on the IX resin PFAS removal effectiveness, 2) the effect of additional primary contaminants of concern (PCOCs) or secondary contaminants of concern (SCOCs) on the effectiveness of PFAS via IX resin, 3) the mechanisms of PFAS removal from water, and 4) practical solutions to IX resin regeneration and waste disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A science-driven approach to optimize the design for a biological small-angle neutron scattering instrument

Biological small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) instruments facilitate critical analysis of the structure and dynamics of complex biological systems. However, with the growth of experimental demands and the advances in optical systems design, a new neutron optical concept is necessary to overcome the limitations of current instruments. This work presents an approach to include experimental objectives ( i.e. the science to be supported by a specific neutron scattering instrument) in the optimization of the neutron optical concept. The approach for a proposed SANS instrument at the Second Target Station of the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, is presented here. Further, the instrument is simulated with the McStas software package. The optimization process is driven by an evolutionary algorithm using McStas output data, which are processed to calculate an objective function designed to quantify the expected performance of the simulated neutron optical configuration for the intended purpose. Each McStas simulation covers the complete instrument, from source to detector, including realistic sample scattering functions. This approach effectively navigates a high-dimensional parameter space that is otherwise intractable; it allows the design of next-generation SANS instruments to address specific scientific cases and has the potential to increase instrument performance compared with traditional design approaches.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Non-DNA radiosensitive targets that initiate persistent behavioral deficits in rats exposed to space radiation

Predicting future CNS risks for astronauts during deep-space missions will rely substantially on ground-based rodent data with space-relevant ions and behaviors. For rats, the accumulated evidence indicates that less densely ionizing radiation, such as 4 He and 12 C ions, induce behavior deficits at lower doses than densely ionizing ions, such as 48 Ti and 56 Fe. However, this observation conflicts with standard somatic radiobiology, in which densely ionizing ions are generally more effective than less densely ionizing ions, and where the DNA/nucleus is the accepted target for radiation-induced tumorigenesis, cytogenetic aberrations, genetic mutations, and reproductive cell death. To gain deeper insight into the subcellular nature of the radiation targets for behavior risks, we compared the effects of dose, fluence, and linear energy transfer (LET) of 4 He and 56 Fe particles using existing datasets for four distinct behavioral outcomes in rats: elevated plus maze (EPM-anxiety), novel object recognition (NOR-memory), operant responding (OR-response to environmental stimuli), and attentional set-shifting (ATSET-cognitive flexibility). We confirmed that less densely ionizing particles (except protons) showed ~100-fold lower threshold doses than densely ionizing particles for behavioral deficits (0.1–1 cGy for 4 He vs. 15–100 cGy for 56 Fe). However, when analyzed by fluence the behavioral responses converged, indicating that 4 He and 56 Fe were equally effective on a per-track basis. When analyzed by LET, there were ~100-fold differences in the LET for maximum effectiveness for behavioral deficits and DNA endpoints (~1 vs ~100 keV/μm, respectively). These unique features of radiation-induced behavioral deficits (high sensitivity to particles in the 1-keV/μm range, insensitivity to protons in the 0.2 keV/μm range, and isofluence dependence for particles with LET>1 keV/μm) provide evidence in support of a new hypothesis of sub-micron sized radiosensitive targets for behavioral effects consistent with the thickness of plasma membranes and/or small subcellular structures, smaller than a whole synapse. Like our behavior findings, mouse immature oocyte killing which is known to have a plasma membrane target was also better explained by fluence, rather than dose. In contrast, fluence analyses for DNA/nuclear endpoints in somatic cells (e.g., tumor induction, chromosome aberrations) showed opposite results, suggesting that behavior targets are not DNA. Our findings raise questions regarding the identity of subcellular targets and the multi-cellular functional unit for behavior risks, low-dose susceptibility, and generalizability from rat to other species and astronauts.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Coincident learning for unsupervised anomaly detection of scientific instruments

Abstract Anomaly detection is an important task for complex scientific experiments and other complex systems (e.g. industrial facilities, manufacturing), where failures in a sub-system can lead to lost data, poor performance, or even damage to components. While scientific facilities generate a wealth of data, labeled anomalies may be rare (or even nonexistent), and expensive to acquire. Unsupervised approaches are therefore common and typically search for anomalies either by distance or density of examples in the input feature space (or some associated low-dimensional representation). This paper presents a novel approach called coincident learning for anomaly detection (CoAD), which is specifically designed for multi-modal tasks and identifies anomalies based on coincident behavior across two different slices of the feature space. We define an unsupervised metric, F ^ β , out of analogy to the supervised classification F β statistic. CoAD uses F ^ β to train an anomaly detection algorithm on unlabeled data , based on the expectation that anomalous behavior in one feature slice is coincident with anomalous behavior in the other. The method is illustrated using a synthetic outlier data set and a MNIST-based image data set, and is compared to prior state-of-the-art on two real-world tasks: a metal milling data set and our motivating task of identifying RF station anomalies in a particle accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Atmospheric System Research Workshop Report: New Directions in Atmospheric Ice Processes Research

Atmospheric ice processes are critical for precipitation production, cloud dynamics, and radiative properties and contribute to uncertainties in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, yet they remain poorly understood. To address this, ASR convened a 2.5-day workshop with 28 experts in laboratory measurements, field observations, and cloud modeling. The primary goal was to identify key knowledge gaps and prioritize future directions in atmospheric ice processes research. The outcomes of this workshop are expected to inform ASR and prompt improvements in cloud and Earth system models (ESMs) by advancing the fundamental understanding of ice processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events

Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DESIGN ISSUES AND QUALIFICATION OF HYDROFORMED DOUBLE WALLED EXPANSION JOINTS IN VACUUM SERVICE

The Vacuum Auxiliary System for ITER is devoted to pumping out, venting, and purging the vacuum volumes of the tokamak. Over 5000 clients including the cryostat and vacuum vessel, at 8500 m3 and 1400 m3 respectively, are serviced by approximately 150 pumping stations through 6 km of pipework. The piping and functions provided to the clients include component operation, routing of potentially tritiated gases, and timely leak localization. Expansion joints are used to reduce loadings on pumps and piping stresses but also to qualify in-line components having low allowable design loads. The ITER project utilizes vacuum valves that are not designed to withstand typical piping system loadings and require detailed design and evaluation. Loading scenarios prescribed by governing system specifications must be considered. To maintain allowable design loads for components and to keep piping stresses below code requirements, double walled hydroformed expansion joints have been employed in the design. These are not standard items and require custom fabrication. Installation space constraints and adjacent pipe support attachment location availability at ITER limit standard expansion joint installation guidelines provided by the Expasion Joint Manufacturers Association (EJMA). Careful consideration must be given to the analysis model to ensure proper function and life expectancy of the component. These considerations include accurate accounting of thrust forces, thermal movements, seismic accelerations, equipment and building differential displacements. In addition to displacements, the process internal, external, and interspace pressures affect the qualification and selection of the double walled expansion joints. The calculation results shall confirm that deflections, forces, and moments are reasonable for the size and type required for the system’s demands as evaluated against the manufacturer’s design.

Clark, Forrest [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000678106843)↗

Southern Hemisphere Polar Infrared Radiation Experiment (SHIRE) Field Campaign Report

An extended-range atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) instrument to be deployed to Scott Base (78 S, 166 E) in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica for the purpose of synergizing with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) satellite mission (https://prefire.ssec.wisc.edu/), examining the closure of atmospheric thermal emission, and providing validation for PREFIRE. The PREFIRE mission is the first satellite mission to map Earth’s spectrally resolved thermal emission, from 5 to 50 microns, over seasonal to annual timescales. These new observations represent the beginning of an intensive examination of the nature of thermal emission from Earth (emission from both the surface and atmosphere). A primary requirement of the PREFIRE mission is to provide validation of the retrieved variables. Numerous field sites in the Arctic (such as the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska observatory and Summit Station, Greenland) have existing instrumentation to facilitate validation, leaving an observational gap in Antarctica. Through SHIRE, we propose to establish a temporary, intensive measurement site in Antarctica to ensure that both poles are suitably represented, and benefit from this state-of-the art science. This will also allow Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric radiative states to be compared and contrasted. For SHIRE specifically, we also propose further objectives to examine the spectrally resolved thermal radiative closure of the polar atmosphere and the historical changes in Antarctic radiative forcing, using previous Antarctic field campaigns, such as the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward a Robust Confirmation or Refutation of the Sterile-Neutrino Explanation of Short-Baseline Anomalies

The sterile neutrino interpretation of the LSND and MiniBooNE neutrino anomalies is currently being tested at three liquid argon detectors: MicroBooNE, SBND, and ICARUS. It has been argued that a degeneracy between 𝜈 𝜇 → 𝜈 𝑒 and 𝜈 𝑒 → 𝜈 𝑒 oscillations significantly degrades their sensitivity to sterile neutrinos. Through an independent study, we show two methods to eliminate this concern. First, we resolve this degeneracy by including external constraints on 𝜈𝑒 disappearance from the PROSPECT reactor experiment. Second, by properly analyzing the full three-dimensional parameter space, we demonstrate that the stronger-than-sensitivity exclusion from MicroBooNE alone already covers the entire 2⁢𝜎 preferred regions of MiniBooNE at the level of 2−3⁢𝜎. We show that upcoming searches at SBND and ICARUS can improve on this beyond the 4⁢𝜎 level, thereby providing a rigorous test of short-baseline anomalies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Signal Whisperers: Enhancing Wireless Reception Using DRL-Guided Reflector Arrays

This paper presents a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) approach for controlling adjustable metallic reflector arrays to enhance wireless signal reception in non-line-of-sight (NLOS) scenarios. Unlike conventional reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS) that require complex channel estimation, our system employs a centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) paradigm where individual agents corresponding to reflector segments autonomously optimize reflector element orientation in three-dimensional space using spatial intelligence based on user location information. Through extensive ray-tracing simulations with dynamic user mobility, the proposed multi-agent beam-focusing framework demonstrates substantial performance improvements over single-agent reinforcement learning baselines, while maintaining rapid adaptation to user movement within one simulation step. Comprehensive evaluation across varying user densities and reflector configurations validates system scalability and robustness. The results demonstrate the potential of learning-based approaches for adaptive wireless propagation control.

deep reinforcement learning↗

Effect of pore fluid chemistry on the mechanical behavior of a divalent compacted bentonite, an experimental and constitutive study

Ongoing research in isolating high-level nuclear waste and spent fuel has highlighted compacted bentonite as a suitable material for engineered barrier systems in deep geological repositories due to its extraordinary swelling and retention properties. This research focuses on the chemo-mechanical behavior of compacted bentonite exposed to different pore fluids with different concentrations and loading conditions. The study involves swelling pressure and compressibility experiments along with mineralogy analysis employing X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Cation exchange. The tests were conducted on BCV (a Mg/Ca- bentonite) compacted at a dry density of 1.48 ± .02 Mg/m 3 . An advanced chemical-mechanical constitutive model for unsaturated highly expansive clays was adopted to simulate the material response and better understand its behavior. The model is able to account for the main phenomena at both macro and microstructural levels and the interactions between them. The model successfully replicated experimental observations. The XRD analyses support the macroscopic observation, indicating that salinity impacts crystalline swelling as demonstrated by the reduction of basal spacing from 19.27 Å to 15.68 Å when the osmotic suction increases from 0 MPa to 33 MPa. The results suggested that the osmotic pressure generated by the concentration in the pore fluids promotes a reduction in swelling pressures, swelling strains, and crystalline swelling of clay minerals. Also, it affects the pre-consolidation stress and the compressibility of the compacted samples. In conclusion, it was also observed that both solution type and solution concentration impact the clay swelling pressure.

Chemo-mechanical constitutive model↗

Enhancing generative molecular design via uncertainty-guided fine-tuning of variational autoencoders

In recent years, deep generative models have been successfully applied to various molecular design tasks, particularly in the life and materials sciences. One critical challenge for pre-trained generative molecular design (GMD) models is to fine-tune them to be better suited for downstream design tasks that aim at optimizing specific molecular properties. However, redesigning and training an existing effective generative model from scratch for each new design task are impractical. Furthermore, the black-box nature of typical downstream tasks that involve property prediction makes it nontrivial to optimize the generative model in a task-specific manner. In this work, we propose an uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy that can effectively enhance a pre-trained variational autoencoder (VAE) for GMD through performance feedback in an active learning setting. The strategy begins by quantifying the model uncertainty of the generative model using an efficient active subspace-based UQ (uncertainty quantification) scheme. Next, the decoder diversity within the characterized model uncertainty class is explored to expand the viable space of molecular generation. The low-dimensionality of the active subspace makes this exploration tractable using a black-box optimization scheme, which in turn enables us to identify and leverage a diverse set of high-performing models to generate enhanced molecules. Empirical results across six target molecular properties using multiple VAE-based generative models demonstrate that our uncertainty-guided fine-tuning strategy consistently leads to improved models that outperform the original pre-trained models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades

Abstract Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Mauritsen, Thorsten [Department of Meteorology and↗