A pictorial comparison of interplanetary magnetic field polarity, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic disturbance index during the sunspot cycle
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Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗
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A survey of coronal holes and their solar wind associations throughout sunspot cycle 20
Space-borne X-ray and XUV observations during the period 1963-74 (corresponding approximately with solar cycle 20) have been used to investigate the relationship between the occurrence and variability of coronal holes and solar activity, i.e., the solar wind. Results indicate that polar holes (prominent at solar minimum) decreased in area as solar activity increased. The equatorial holes were also small during this period and persisted for one or two solar rotations only. Solar wind streams in excess of 500 km/s were associated with coronal holes at less than 40 deg latitude, although solar coronal holes appear to have no associated wind streams at earth.
Broussard, R. M.↗
Coronal holes, solar wind streams, and geomagnetic activity during the new sunspot cycle
The paper presents results obtained for 1976-1977 using daily He I 10830 A spectroheliograms and photospheric magnetograms. It was found that as the magnetic field patterns changed, the solar atmosphere evolved from a structure with a few large long-lived low-latitude coronal holes to one with numerous small short-lived high-latitude holes. High-latitude holes recurred with a synodic rotation period of 28-29 days instead of the 27-day period already known to be characteristic of low-latitude holes. A Bartels display of the occurrence of holes, wind speed, and geomagnetic activity is considered.
Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗
Titan - Aerosol photochemistry and variations related to the sunspot cycle
A photochemical theory is proposed for producing complex polymers in a methane atmosphere. It is argued that the polyacetylenes (C2nH2) are the most likely precursor molecules for the formation of the stratospheric haze layer on Titan. The production of polyacetylenes involves a strong positive feedback, leading to more production of polyacetylenes. The thermosphere of Titan may undergo substantial expansion and contraction over a solar cycle, with important consequences for the chemistry of the upper atmosphere.
Allen, M.↗
A simulation study of two major events in the heliosphere during the present sunspot cycle
Disturbances in the heliosphere which occurred during two of the most active periods of the sun during the present solar cycle, in June and July 1982 and April and May 1978, are qualitatively simulated using the method of Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). A first-order spatial and temporal construction of flare-generated shocks and their multiple interactions with each other and with cororating interaction regions is obtained. A comparison of the results with solar wind observations from Pioneer 10, 11, and 12 suggests that some major flares occurred behind the solar disk during the two periods. The present method provides some qualitative information on how such a series of intense solar flares can greatly disturb both the inner and outer heliospheres. A long-lasting effect on cosmic rays which occurs in conjunction with such disturbances is discussed.
Akasofu, S. L.↗
Simulations of the mean solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21
Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during 1976-1984 was computed and the corresponding evolution of the mean line-of-sight field as seen from earth was derived. A good, but imperfect, agreement was obtained between the observed mean field and the field computed for a nominal choice of flux transport parameters. The response of the computed mean field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties was determined. The results suggest that the mean-field evolution is a random-walk process with dissipation. New eruptions of flux produce the random walk, and together differential rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion provide the dissipation. The net effect of each new source depends on its strength and orientation and on the time elapsed before the next eruption.
Sheeley, N. R., Jr.↗
Simulations of the gross solar magnetic field during sunspot cycle 21
Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, the evolution of the radial component of the solar photospheric magnetic field during 1976-1984 has been simulated with a spatial resolution of about 34,000 km, and the corresponding evolution of its absolute value averaged over the visible disk is derived. For nominal values of the transport parameters, this simulated gross field is in close, though imperfect, agreement with the observed gross field and its associated indices of solar activity. By analyzing the response of the simulated gross field to variations in the transport parameters and the source properties, it is found that the simulated field originates in newly erupted bipolar regions. The lifetimes of these regions are almost always less than three mo. Consequently, the strength of the simulated gross field is a measure of the current level of solar activity, and any recurrent patterns with lifetimes in excess of six mo must reflect the continuing eruption of new flux at 'active longitudes' rather than the persistence of old flux in long-lived magnetic structures.
Sheeley, Neil R., Jr.↗
Simulations of the sun's polar magnetic fields during sunspot cycle 21
Regarding new bipolar magnetic regions as sources of flux, the evolution of the radial component of the solar photospheric magnetic field is simulated during 1976-1984, and the corresponding evolution of the line-of-sight polar fields as seen from earth is derived. The observed timing and strength of the polar-field reversal during cycle 21 can be accounted for by supergranular diffusion alone, for a diffusion coefficient of 800 sq km/sec. For an assumed 300 sq km/sec rate of diffusion, on the other hand, a poleward meridional flow with a moderately broad profile and a peak speed of 10 m/s reached at about 5 deg latitude is required to obtain agreement between the simulated and observed fields. Such a flow accelerates the transport of following-polarity flux to the polar caps, but also inhibits the diffusion of leading-polarity flux across the equator. For flows faster than about 10 m/s, the latter effect dominates, and the simulated polar fields reverse increasingly later and more weakly than the observed fields.
Devore, C. Richard↗
Magnetic flux transport and the sunspot-cycle evolution of coronal holes and their wind streams
The relationships between magnetic flux transport from active regions and the formation and evolution of coronal holes are examined through numerical simulations. The model utilized is based on the assumption that coronal holes represent open field regions, and that the solar-wind speed at 1 AU is universely correlated with the divergence rate of the coronal field. The evolution of coronal holes and wind streams during 1980 - 1990 is discussed, along with flux transport and the evolution of open field regions, and focus is placed on declining, rising, and maximum phases. It is concluded that supergranular diffusion spreads active region flux over the solar surface and wipes out pockets of mixed polarity, thus creating unipolar areas containing open field lines; differential rotation spreads flux in longitude and it combines with diffusion to create axisymmetric polar holes from the original active-region fields; and meridional flow accelerates the decay of low-latitude holes by carrying flux to midlatitudes.
Wang, Y.-M.↗
On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle
The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Erratum: Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period
An error was made in entering the data. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. We compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N + 2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown. This relationship is suggestive of a "memory" in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati. This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N + 2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N + 1 and N + 3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.
Hathaway, David H.↗
Geomagnetic Activity Indicates Large Amplitude for Sunspot Cycle 24
The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average - similar in size to cycles 21 and 22.
Hathaway, D. H.↗
Solar Toroidal Field Evolution Spanning Four Sunspot Cycles Seen by the Wilcox Solar Observatory, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager, and the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager
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Allison L. Liu↗
Sunspot Activity Near Cycle Minimum and What it Might Suggest for Cycle 24, the Next Sunspot Cycle
In late 2008, 12-month moving averages of sunspot number, number of spotless days, number of groups, area of sunspots, and area per group were reflective of sunspot cycle minimum conditions for cycle 24, these values being of or near record value. The first spotless day occurred in January 2004 and the first new-cycle, high-latitude spot was reported in January 2008, although old-cycle, low-latitude spots have continued to be seen through April 2009, yielding an overlap of old and new cycle spots of at least 16 mo. New-cycle spots first became dominant over old-cycle spots in September 2008. The minimum value of the weighted mean latitude of sunspots occurred in May 2007, measuring 6.6 deg, and the minimum value of the highest-latitude spot followed in June 2007, measuring 11.7 deg. A cycle length of at least 150 mo is inferred for cycle 23, making it the longest cycle of the modern era. Based on both the maximum-minimum and amplitude-period relationships, cycle 24 is expected to be only of average to below-average size, peaking probably in late 2012 to early 2013, unless it proves to be a statistical outlier.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
A prediction for the onset of cycle 23
The present sunspot cycle (number 22) is now in decline, having had its onset in September 1986, its primary maximum in July 1989, and a secondary maximum (of lower value) in 1991. Dependent upon whether cycle 22 is a short-or 1ong-period cycle, onset for cycle 23 w/II occur, respectively, either prior or subsequent to about July 1997. A relation is described, involving the slopes (i.e., the average rates of change in smoothed sunspot number values) as seen during the ascending and descending portions of the sunspot cycle, which appears to clarify, at least for cycle 22, the ambiguity of cycle length. In particular, the relation strongly suggests that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle and that onset for cycle 23 will come early rather than late, with the most probable date for cycle 23 onset being May-November 1996.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
The Solar Cycle
Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.
Hathaway, D. H.↗
Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021
McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun’s global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or ‘terminators’ for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 (±17 with 95% confidence, and ±63 with 68% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.
Sun↗
Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum
By definition, the conventional onset for the start of a sunspot cycle is the time when smoothed sunspot number (i.e., the 12-month moving average) has decreased to its minimum value (called minimum amplitude) prior to the rise to its maximum value (called maximum amplitude) for the given sunspot cycle. On the basis (if the modern era sunspot cycles 10-22 and on the presumption that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle having a cycle length of 120 to 126 months (the observed range of short-period modern era cycles), conventional onset for cycle 23 should not occur until sometime between September 1996 and March 1997, certainly between June 1996 and June 1997, based on the 95-percent confidence level deduced from the mean and standard deviation of period for the sample of six short-pei-iod modern era cycles. Also, because the first occurrence of a new cycle, high-latitude (greater than or equal to 25 degrees) spot has always preceded conventional onset of the new cycle by at least 3 months (for the data-available interval of cycles 12-22), conventional onset for cycle 23 is not expected until about August 1996 or later, based on the first occurrence of a new cycle 23, high-latitude spot during the decline of old cycle 22 in May 1996. Although much excitement for an earlier-occurring minimum (about March 1996) for cycle 23 was voiced earlier this year, the present study shows that this exuberance is unfounded. The decline of cycle 22 continues to favor cycle 23 minimum sometime during the latter portion of 1996 to the early portion of 1997.
Wilson, Robert M.↗