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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Calibration and Validation of a Finite ELement Model of THor-K Anthropomorphic Test Device for Aerospace Safety Applications

The THOR anthropomorphic test device (ATD) has been developed and continuously improved by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to provide automotive manufacturers an advanced tool that can be used to assess the injury risk of vehicle occupants in crash tests. Recently, a series of modifications were completed to improve the biofidelity of THOR ATD [1]. The updated THOR Modification Kit (THOR-K) ATD was employed at Wright-Patterson Air Base in 22 impact tests in three configurations: vertical, lateral, and spinal [2]. Although a computational finite element (FE) model of the THOR had been previously developed [3], updates to the model were needed to incorporate the recent changes in the modification kit. The main goal of this study was to develop and validate a FE model of the THOR-K ATD. The CAD drawings of the THOR-K ATD were reviewed and FE models were developed for the updated parts. For example, the head-skin geometry was found to change significantly, so its model was re-meshed (Fig. 1a). A protocol was developed to calibrate each component identified as key to the kinematic and kinetic response of the THOR-K head/neck ATD FE model (Fig. 1b). The available ATD tests were divided in two groups: a) calibration tests where the unknown material parameters of deformable parts (e.g., head skin, pelvis foam) were optimized to match the data and b) validation tests where the model response was only compared with test data by calculating their score using CORrelation and Analysis (CORA) rating system. Finally, the whole ATD model was validated under horizontal-, vertical-, and lateral-loading conditions against data recorded in the Wright Patterson tests [2]. Overall, the final THOR-K ATD model developed in this study is shown to respond similarly to the ATD in all validation tests. This good performance indicates that the optimization performed during calibration by using the CORA score as objective function is not test specific. Therefore confidence is provided in the ATD model for uses in predicting response in test conditions not performed in this study such those observed in the spacecraft landing. Comparison studies with ATD and human models may also be performed to contribute to future changes in THOR ATD design in an effort to improve its biofidelity, which has been traditionally based on post-mortem human subject testing and designer experience.

Putnam, J. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Floor and ceiling effects in the EORTC QLQ-C30 Physical Functioning subscale among patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer

The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 Physical Functioning subscale is a widely used patient-reported outcome measure that quantifies cancer patients' physical functioning. Strong floor/ceiling effects can affect a scale's sensitivity to change. The aim of this study was to characterize floor/ceiling effects of the physical functioning domain in patients with advanced/metastatic breast cancer enrolled in commercial clinical trials and a community-based trial. The clinical trial cohort comprised patients from 5 registrational trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration for review (2010-2017). The community cohort comprised a subgroup of patients from the Alliance Patient Reported Outcomes to Enhance Cancer Treatment (PRO-TECT) trial. The distribution of patient responses to Physical Functioning items and the summed score were assessed at the baseline and 3-month follow-up for both cohorts. Descriptive statistics were used to determine floor/ceiling effects at the item and scale levels. The clinical trial cohort and the community cohort consisted of 2407 and 178 patients, respectively. Twenty-four percent or more of the respondents reported “not at all” for having trouble/needing help with each Physical Functioning item across both cohorts and measurement time points. Fourteen to twenty percent of the patients scored perfectly (100 of 100) on the Physical Functioning subscale summary measure (where higher scores indicated better physical functioning) across both cohorts and time points. Minor floor effects and notable ceiling effects were found at the item and scale levels of the Physical Functioning subscale, regardless of cohort, and this creates some uncertainty about its ability to detect changes in physical functioning among high-functioning patients. In conclusion, investigators may consider adding additional high-functioning items from the EORTC's item library to more accurately describe the impact of anticancer treatment on patients' physical functioning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Automated Fiber Placement Through Thickness Defect Stacking Optimization

In its 2022 commercial market outlook, Boeing forecasted an 80% increase in the global fleet through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. This sharp rise in demand will drive pressure onto airframe manufacturers to ramp up production and find more efficient ways to design and manufacture airplanes. Complicating this challenge is the industry’s recent transformation from traditional metal-based airframes towards hybrid composite-metal aircraft. While composites have been used in aviation for decades, aircraft manufacturers are still struggling to design and manufacture quality parts at a high rate. Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) is one of the main manufacturing techniques used to produce large-scale composite parts. After a design has been created, a manufacturing strategy has to be developed based on the working material, part geometry, and machine capabilities. This process planning stage is essential to the AFP workflow and currently requires a high level of manual input from an experienced process planner. In an effort to automate and optimize this stage, the Computer Aided Process Planning (CAPP) module was developed. CAPP assists process planners in identifying optimal starting point location and layup strategy for each ply of a laminate. This Ply-Level Optimization (PLO) phase operates on the quantification of ply quality through predictable geometry-based defects such as gaps, overlaps, angle deviation, and steering. As you move from PLO to Laminate-Level Optimization (LLO) the design space grows exponentially, emphasizing the need for automated optimization. The work presented in this thesis expands CAPP’s functionality by comparing the planned fiber paths through the thickness of the laminate to mitigate stacked area defects and achieve an optimal laminate-level manufacturing strategy. Within CAPP, predicted gap and overlap defects are imported from Vericut Composites Programming (VCP) and then discretized to streamline the through-thickness comparison. Two objective functions are used to score different combinations of ply layup strategies based on defect stacking both globally and locally. Four combinatorial optimization algorithms were coupled with these objective functions to investigate the laminate-level manufacturing strategy design space and converge on the optimal plan. These algorithms were evaluated based on accuracy and efficiency through virtual testing on a complex tool surface. A separate LLO approach was developed to achieve near-optimal laminates in significantly less time. The end result is a software package which greatly reduces the required input from process planners, shortening the design-build cycle time and improving part quality.

AFP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

The HSA is a statistics based anomaly detection model. The model performs unsupervised anomaly detection, based on a datapoint's density and similarity within a dataset. Density and similarity data are encoded into an affinity matrix. The affinity matrix is evolved to summarize the data's structure on greater topographical scales within the data's function space. The set of evolved affinity matrices and an anomaly score vector are passed to a user defined penalized objective function. The penalized objective function of anomaly scores is then minimized. Data points where the absolute value of the z-scores of anomaly scores greater than a specified threshold are predicted as anomalies. A novel multi-filter feature has also been implemented. To reduce false positive rates, the multi-filter records the indexes of the HSA predictions. A new dataset and data loader are instantiated consisting of all the initial HSA predictions and non-anomalous data points in a 10% and 90% split respectively. The HSA is then run through this data set and a count of number of times a data point is predicted is kept. In this way the initial predictions may be compared with data spanning the entire dataset. After the multi-filter is complete, all datapoints will have an associated anomaly score, as well as a multi-filter prediction count to further filter the anomalous predictions.

Rogers, DempseyD [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development and Validation of the Near-Miss Safety Score (NMSS) Framework for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Safety Assessment

Heavy-duty commercial vehicles present unique safety challenges due to their size, articulation dynamics, and operational complexity. As Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and Automated Driving Systems (ADS) become more common in Class 8 tractor-trailers, traditional crash-based metrics are no longer sufficient to evaluate safety performance. This study introduces the Near-Miss Safety Score (NMSS)—a quantitative, physics-informed framework developed as a leading indicator of safety for advanced commercial vehicle technologies. NMSS quantifies how close a vehicle or operator comes to a collision or safety-critical event by integrating vehicle kinematics (relative distance, velocity, and acceleration) with driver or system response latency and time-to-collision. A modifier function adjusts the base score for vehicle-specific and environmental factors such as trailer articulation, load distribution, braking condition, and roadway environment. The framework enables systematic evaluation of ADAS/ADS performance under a range of operational and degraded conditions. By capturing near-miss dynamics rather than relying on crash data, NMSS provides a proactive approach to risk assessment, accelerates technology validation, and enhances interpretability for regulators and fleet operators. The proposed NMSS was validated using data collected from a motorcoach platform, demonstrating the framework’s applicability to heavy-duty safety evaluation and performance benchmarking. Results and key insights are presented in this paper.

Siekmann, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000284653935)↗
NASA NTRS1973

Monte-Carlo analysis of rarefied-gas diffusion including variance reduction using the theory of Markov random walks

Molecular diffusion through a rarefied gas is analyzed by using the theory of Markov random walks. The Markov walk is simulated on the computer by using random numbers to find the new states from the appropriate transition probabilities. As the sample molecule during its random walk passes a scoring position, which is a location at which the macroscopic diffusing flow variables such as molecular flux and molecular density are desired, an appropriate payoff is scored. The payoff is a function of the sample molecule velocity. For example, in obtaining the molecular flux across a scoring position, the random walk payoff is the net number of times the scoring position has been crossed in the positive direction. Similarly, when the molecular density is required, the payoff is the sum of the inverse velocity of the sample molecule passing the scoring position. The macroscopic diffusing flow variables are then found from the expected payoff of the random walks.

Perlmutter, M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Autonomic Symptom Profile: a new instrument to assess autonomic symptoms

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new specific instrument called the Autonomic Symptom Profile to measure autonomic symptoms and test its validity. BACKGROUND: Measuring symptoms is important in the evaluation of quality of life outcomes. There is no validated, self-completed questionnaire on the symptoms of patients with autonomic disorders. METHODS: The questionnaire is 169 items concerning different aspects of autonomic symptoms. The Composite Autonomic Symptom Scale (COMPASS) with item-weighting was established; higher scores indicate more or worse symptoms. Autonomic function tests were performed to generate the Composite Autonomic Scoring Scale (CASS) and to quantify autonomic deficits. We compared the results of the COMPASS with the CASS derived from the Autonomic Reflex Screen to evaluate validity. RESULTS: The instrument was tested in 41 healthy controls (mean age 46.6 years), 33 patients with nonautonomic peripheral neuropathies (mean age 59.5 years), and 39 patients with autonomic failure (mean age 61.1 years). COMPASS scores correlated well with the CASS, demonstrating an acceptable level of content and criterion validity. The mean (+/-SD) overall COMPASS score was 9.8 (+/-9) in controls, 25.9 (+/-17.9) in the patients with nonautonomic peripheral neuropathies, and 52.3 (+/-24.2) in the autonomic failure group. Scores of symptoms of orthostatic intolerance and secretomotor dysfunction best predicted the CASS on multiple stepwise regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a questionnaire that measures autonomic symptoms and present evidence for its validity. The instrument shows promise in assessing autonomic symptoms in clinical trials and epidemiologic studies.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steroid responsiveness in alcohol-associated hepatitis is linked to glucocorticoid metabolism, mitochondrial repair, and heat shock proteins

Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is one of the clinical presentations of alcohol-associated liver disease. AH has poor prognosis, and corticosteroids remain the mainstay of drug therapy. However, ~40% of patients do not respond to this treatment, and the mechanisms underlying the altered response to corticosteroids are not understood. The current study aimed to identify changes in hepatic protein expression associated with responsiveness to corticosteroids and prognosis in patients with AH. Patients with AH were enrolled based on the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism inclusion criteria for acute AH and further confirmed by a diagnostic liver biopsy. Proteomic analysis was conducted on liver samples acquired from patients with AH grouped as nonresponders (AH-NR, n = 7) and responders (AH-R, n = 14) to corticosteroids, and nonalcohol-associated liver disease controls (n = 10). The definition of responders was based on the clinical prognostic model, the Lille Score, where a score < 0.45 classified patients as AH-R and a score > 0.45 as AH-NR. Primary outcomes used to assess steroid response were Lille Score (eg, improved liver function) and survival at 24 weeks. Reduced levels of the glucocorticoid receptor and its transcriptional co-activator, glucocorticoid modulatory element-binding protein 2, were observed in the hepatic proteome of AH-NR versus AH-R. The corticosteroid metabolizing enzyme, 11-beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase 1, was increased in AH-NR versus AH-R along with elevated mitochondrial DNA repair enzymes, while several proteins of the heat shock pathway were reduced. Analysis of differentially expressed proteins in AH-NR who survived 24 weeks relative to AH-NR nonsurvivors revealed several protein expression changes, including increased levels of acute phase proteins, elevated coagulation factors, and reduced mast cell markers. This study identified hepatic proteomic changes that may predict responsiveness to corticosteroids and mortality in patients with AH.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensor Recommendations for Long Term Monitoring of the F-Area Seepage Basins

In mid-2018, a new paradigm for long-term monitoring was developed after of decade of applied research projects funded by the Department of Energy’s office of Environmental Management Technology Development program. The program at SRNL was focused on transitioning complex environmental waste sites from active to passive remediations strategies. A key result of these studies was that the use of enhanced attenuation approaches at radiologically contaminated sites will result in the creation of secondary source areas in the subsurface that will require monitoring for decades. Alternative monitoring approaches are being developed and tested at the Savannah River Site’s F-Area Hazardous Waste Management Facility, the new paradigm provides innovative solutions that will significantly lower costs of monitoring through the coupling of data collection, machine learning and deterministic groundwater modeling. The foundation of this approach is a well-optimized network of sensors for measuring hydrogeochemical master variables that control, and therefore act as indicators of groundwater contaminant transport. By monitoring changes in the controlling master variables over time arising from geological and environmental shifts, predictive modelling can assist with identifying new strategies for ensuring regulatory requirements are met if trends toward conditions for potential remobilization of attenuated contaminants are detected. In this report, we evaluated commercially available single parameter sensor platforms (e.g., temperature/depth) and configurable multi-parameter sensor platforms (e.g., pH, oxidation-reduction potential, temperature, depth, dissolved oxygen, and conductivity). Each was scored using an optimization function based on how well the system supports the proposed long-term monitoring paradigm, in general, and the site-specific conditions at F-Area, in particular. Several viable sensor systems were identified. Of these, a combined platform including the In-Situ Aqua TROLL 500 multi-parameter sensor platform and the In-Situ temperature/depth sensor had the highest rating and was identified as the most suitable candidate for installation and monitoring of the master variables and potentiometric surface that control groundwater contaminant plumes emanating from the F-Area Seepage Basins. The discussion of recommended potential deployment locations builds upon recommendations made by Denham et al (2019).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates on LANL AM Data Analysis

The NMF k algorithm results in strong classification scores and informative basis functions to describe the spectra associated with pore formation.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling Sepsis: Establishment and Validation of a 72-Hour Swine Model of Penetrating Abdominal Trauma

Background/Objectives: Fecal peritonitis following penetrating abdominal trauma is a serious condition that often results in sepsis and organ failure. The aim of our study was to develop a novel conscious porcine model of sepsis and organ dysfunction caused by multiple penetrating injuries to the small and large intestines. Methods: Twelve female Yorkshire pigs (average weight 50.6 ± 6.5 kg) were divided into two groups: Penetrating Abdominal Trauma (PAT) (n = 8) and Control (n = 4). All surgical procedures were performed under anesthesia with adequate analgesia. In the PAT group, the small and large intestines were punctured, and feces mixed with saline were introduced into the abdominal cavity to induce peritonitis. The Control group received sham surgery with only saline solution. The animals were observed in a conscious state over a period of 72 h, vital parameters were recorded, and blood samples were taken regularly. We adapted a pig-specific SOFA score and developed pig-specific SIRS criteria and NEWS2 score to assess organ function. The model was validated by independent investigators. Results: The survival rate in the PAT group was 75%, with an average survival time of 58.5 h, while all animals in the Control group survived to euthanasia. Monitoring showed pathophysiological changes, such as tachycardia, leucopenia, and thrombocytopenia, indicative of sepsis and organ dysfunction. Blinded investigators independently confirmed the model’s validity. Conclusions: A new swine model of penetrating abdominal trauma and sepsis has been successfully developed that demonstrates significant physiological and immunologic changes comparable to human sepsis. This new model provides a realistic platform for future research into sepsis, its diagnostics, and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies.

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Metrics Framework for Solar Photovoltaics

This presentation was given at the Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC) 54 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are routinely exposed to extreme weather, including wind and hail storms. Historically, most systems have proven to be resilient to such events, but some storms have damaged PV systems, leading to physical and financial loss. Storm hardening measures and specific system attributes can reduce this risk. This work introduces a set of resilience metrics and a framework for quantifying, comparing, and predicting PV system resilience. The framework is divided into two parts: 1) predictive, attribute metrics based on site and component characteristics, and 2) impact metrics that assess post-storm performance. Metrics are weighted and aggregated, producing hazard-specific resilience scores. We derive damage functions from storm-impacted PV systems, establishing a baseline against which post-storm performance can be compared. This damage was widely variable across hail and wind intensities, and field hail damage was less than predicted by laboratory tests, suggesting that system features - in addition to storm conditions - influence damage likelihood. Finally, the metrics framework is demonstrated using three case studies of storm damaged PV systems. Although additional data are needed to create attribute specific damage functions and establish metric weights, this study presents a methodology for evaluating PV resilience and contributes new damage functions to the literature.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1982

Visual/motion cue mismatch during a coordinated roll maneuver

The effect of a performance mismatch between the simulator visual and motion display systems on pilot performance while engaged in a compensatory tracking task, and the effect of a reduction in simulator motion scaling while maintaining constant visual scaling on pilot performance for this same task were investigated. A jet transport aircraft with motion in the roll and lateral simulator axes was used as a test vehicle for a computer simulation. The aircraft was disturbed by moderate levels of turbulence which resulted in flight path deviations in the roll and lateral axes. The task of the pilot was to maintain flight formation behind the aircraft in front of him as displayed by a video monitor located in the simulator cockpit. Experimental data consisting of pilot describing functions and pilot performance scores are presented and discussed as they relate to experimental evidence.

Shirachi, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of high-contact-ratio spur gears with profile modification

Scoring tests, surface fatigue tests, and single-tooth bending fatigue tests were conducted with four sets of spur gears of standard design and three sets of spur gears of the new tooth form (NTF) design. Scoring tests were conducted in a gear test rig at a speed of 10,000 rpm using a synthetic polyester C5, C6, C7 substituted pentaerythritol oil. Surface fatigue tests were conducted in the same rig at a speed of 10,000 rpm and Hertz stresses of 173 x 10 to the 7th power and 143 x 10 to the 7th power Pa (250,000 and 214,000 psi). Single tooth bending fatigue tests were conducted on both the standard and NTF gears at an initial load that produced a 10.35 x 10 to the eight power Pa (150,000-psi) bending stress. The gears were load cycled to failure or for 3 x 10 to the 6th power cycles, whichever occurred first. The load was increased after test until failure occurred at 3 x 10 to the 6th power cycles or less. Both the standard and NTF gears scored at a gear bulk temperature of approximately 409 K (277 F). At this temperature the load on the NTF gears was 22 percent less than the load on the standard gears. The scoring failure was a function of gear bulk temperature, where for a given lubricant the temperature is a function of gear design, operating load, and speed.

Townsend, D. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli using conserved genes

Having the ability to predict the protein-encoding gene content of an incomplete genome or metagenome-assembled genome is important for a variety of bioinformatic tasks. In this study, as a proof of concept, we built machine learning classifiers for predicting variable gene content in Escherichia coli genomes using only the nucleotide k-mers from a set of 100 conserved genes as features. Protein families were used to define orthologs, and a single classifier was built for predicting the presence or absence of each protein family occurring in 10%–90% of all E. coli genomes. The resulting set of 3,259 extreme gradient boosting classifiers had a per-genome average macro F1 score of 0.944 [0.943–0.945, 95% CI]. We show that the F1 scores are stable across multi-locus sequence types and that the trend can be recapitulated by sampling a smaller number of core genes or diverse input genomes. Surprisingly, the presence or absence of poorly annotated proteins, including “hypothetical proteins” was accurately predicted (F1 = 0.902 [0.898–0.906, 95% CI]). Models for proteins with horizontal gene transfer-related functions had slightly lower F1 scores but were still accurate (F1s = 0.895, 0.872, 0.824, and 0.841 for transposon, phage, plasmid, and antimicrobial resistance-related functions, respectively). Finally, using a holdout set of 419 diverse E. coli genomes that were isolated from freshwater environmental sources, we observed an average per-genome F1 score of 0.880 [0.876–0.883, 95% CI], demonstrating the extensibility of the models. Overall, this study provides a framework for predicting variable gene content using a limited amount of input sequence data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The executive disruption model of tinnitus distress: Model validation in two independent datasets using factor score regression

This study presents the executive disruption model (EDM) of tinnitus distress and subsequently validates it statistically using two independent datasets (the Construction Dataset: n = 96 and the Validation Dataset: n = 200). The conceptual EDM was first operationalised as a structural causal model (construction phase). Then multiple regression was used to examine the effect of executive functioning on tinnitus-related distress (validation phase), adjusting for the additional contributions of hearing threshold and psychological distress. For both datasets, executive functioning negatively predicted tinnitus distress score by a similar amount (the Construction Dataset: β = −3.50, p = 0.13 and the Validation Dataset: β = −3.71, p = 0.02). Theoretical implications and applications of the EDM are subsequently discussed; these include the predictive nature of executive functioning in the development of distressing tinnitus, and the clinical utility of the EDM.

Clarke, Nathan A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Longitudinal Trajectories of Memory Performance in Patients with Early-Stage Breast Cancer

Background. While breast cancer and its treatments may affect cognition, the longitudinal trajectories of cognition among those receiving differing cancer treatment types remain poorly understood. Prior research suggests hippocampal-prefrontal cortex network integrity may influence cognition, although how this network predicts performance over time remains unclear. Methods. We conducted a prospective trial including 69 patients with early-stage breast cancer receiving adjuvant therapy and 12 controls. Longitudinal cognitive testing was conducted at four visits: pretreatment-baseline, 6-7 months, 14-15 months, and 23-24 months. Cognitive composite scores of episodic memory, executive functioning, and processing speed were assessed at each timepoint. Baseline structural MRI was obtained in a subset of these participants, and hippocampal and prefrontal cortex regional volumes were extracted. Results. Longitudinal linear mixed modeling revealed significant group by time interactions on memory performance, controlling for age and education. Post hoc analyses revealed this effect was driven by patients treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy, who demonstrated the least improvement in memory scores over time. Treatment group did not significantly influence the relationship between time and processing speed or executive functioning. Neither pretreatment hippocampal nor prefrontal volume differed between groups, and there were no significant group by time by baseline regional volume effects on cognition. Conclusion. Patients with early-stage breast cancer treated with chemotherapy or chemotherapy plus hormone therapy benefit less from practice effects seen in healthy controls on memory tests. Loss of longitudinal practice effect may be a new and clinically relevant measure for capturing patients’ experience of cognitive difficulties after treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Jones, Harry↗